Week 10 HAMMERS!!!!!

HammersSpreads

HammersSpreads

Pretty much a regular
Season Record: 43-28 (60.56%)
Sides Record: 37-24 (60.67%)
Totals Record: 6-4 (60.00%)


MASTER Record: 9-3 (75.00%)

HAMMERED Record: 0-2 (0.00%)

5-5 ovr, 0-1 HAMMERED, 3-0 MASTERED

Could have been a HUGE Saturday....instead it was an average one. It's very frustrating when you put in hours upon hours into this, and you don't get the return. Especially with the way a couple games went, & one in particular. As it is, I'm pumped for this time of year & hope I can right the ship.

As it sits, I am 0-2 in HAMMERED picks w/ both having a decent chance of being 2-0, & a wonderful chance of being 1-0-1 at the least. Bright note is that I am on a 6-0 (3-0 this week) run on my MASTERED picks.

Bowling Green was the HAMMERED pick, & was pushing w/ less than a minute left in the game. Then the top red zone defense in the nation gave up a 3rd & 26 from the 28yd line backed up with a 4th & 9 from the 11yd line to allow Toledo to score. I would have been happy to have a push on the game after BG started the way it did. I didn't understand passing up a FG on their first drive. Then on Toledo's 2nd drive they rough the kicker on a FG, followed by a bogus personal foul call after they stopped them again. Anyway, I would have been happy with a push b/c that would have still been a great day.

OU - I thought I pegged the game pretty right on. Much respect to Kingsbury & company as they showed a lot of heart & brass. TT is better than thought, but I think OU is better than some people thought as well.

Wyoming - I was extra comfortable when they were up 16-0 in the 1st qtr, then up 30-14 in the 3rd qtr......but then they decided they wanted to make things difficult on me. Still a cover.

Zona/Colo OVER was as easy as I thought

Buffalo - Keeps rolling. Only reason i didn't unload on this game was b/c of the Bulls weak schedule so far. They look for real though

TCU & the UNDER - Under was good, TCU isn't. It was very unlike me to bet TCU....too many beers I guess.

Oregon OVER - Upset I made this pick as well.

SDSU OVER - I said I thought the Aztecs would win, & they were clearly the better team. I feel bad for Rocky Long & company. SDSU clearly plays up & down to their competition, & I've read that on them since week 2. As for the bet, It was a bad play by me b/c I could have gotten a much better number on this game, & that was the difference between a winner & a loser.



Just started looking at this card, but there are some lines that look way off to me. Lots of research to do before I place any bets, but I'm jazzed for another week.

Get Money my friends
 
Oregon over..don't be upset. Gotta have brass balls to go under.

Git paid bro. Love ur insight and read every week. Glad to have u here.
 
agreed with hunt, uve been awesome all year and always look forward to your threads. excited to see what you got this week
 
Thanks for the kind words guys. Much appreciated.

Forgot to add Tulsa last week as the other loser ----- I made the bet premature, thinking that Cody Green would start, as I stated last week that he had been playing really good the last 6 quarters. Turned out he didn't start & Dane Evans did. Evans was the main reason for the L in my opinion. Tulsa outgained Tulane but had 4 TO's to do them in. They got inside the Tulane 30 yd line 4 times & came away with: a TD, a missed 29 yd FG, & 2 INT's. Tulane just has those winning ways this year, they keep winning no matter how ugly it is for them....& it's awesome that they finally are going to get back into a bowl this year. With that said, Tulsa will be on my lean list for this week, & if Cody Green plays then i will probably be taking the Hurricane.
 
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]San Jose State Spartans (-3.5)[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
If you read my threads at all then you will know how shocking it is that I will be playing this game. I have been very critical of Sparty ever since the Minnesota game. Since that time they have had 4 games, & I have bet twice against them & have gone 2-0 (including a MASTER last week). The other 2 games against Hawaii & Colorado St I said whether it be in my thread or someone elses that I like the Spartans to cover. So I like to think I could have been 4-0 betting SJSU games since their Minnesota a*skicking. I think i have a real good feel for them right now, & this week may be a big determining point.
[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]My main reason for being critical was b/c they had ZERO run game. The 1st 4 games of the year they averaged 80 ypc. Since then, the last 3 games they have averaged 180 ypc. This main reason is b/c they have made a change in the backfield. A walk-on freshman in Jarrod Lawson has been getting more & more reps (actually started last week) & now they have a running game it seems. If they can get continued success on the ground, then this offense will be near impossible to stop b/c Fales continues to play at an insanely high level. The other reason I was critical of SJSU is b/c they have no run defense b/c their coaches changed from a 4-3 to a 3-4. Their defense still isnt very good, but it is statistically better than UNLV's, as UNLV's ranks near the bottom of the nation.
[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]UNLV's offense is very balanced. Tim Cornett is a workhorse & I'm curious to see if he is still banged up or not (he was doubtful last week but ended up playing & looking good). Their defense has been very poureous, giving up at least 450 yds to every opponent except to W Illinois, but like I said...SJSU defense has not been impressive either. UNLV run defense is near the bottom in the nation, which makes me hope for a better chance for SJSU to run the ball. Pass defense is in the middle in the nation, which doesn't bother me b/c Fales will get his (Derek Carr had 400+ against them).
[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The absolute BIGGEST reason to take this game is because it is a MONUMENTAL letdown spot for UNLV. This team is not used to success at all & they are sitting at 5-3 (I will point out that all 5 wins are against teams w/ a losing record by at least 2 games, & all 3 losses are against teams with a winning record). UNLV beat Nevada last week, who is their biggest rival. UNLV had lost 8 straight times to Nevada, and they finally snapped that streak last week.
[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I put 1 unit on it for now, but I may very well add to this as right now this is my most confident pick of the week. I think SJSU's new coaching staff is starting to figure things out. They are finally getting a run game, & Fales will keep flying. This is a massive letdown spot for UNLV, and I honestly don't believe they are as good as their record shows. It is homecoming for the Rebels this week, & I'm sure people will be fired up....but I just can't see them keeping up with Fales & the Spartans. Looking at the 2 teams you would think it should be a high scoring game, going back & forth. That could very well happen, & if that's the case I still think SJSU gets a handful more stops & ends up pulling away while UNLV plays catch up. However, I wont be surprised at all to see UNLV come out a little flat, & SJSU win something like 38-24. I would play this came confidently up to 7pts, as I think they win by DD's.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Other leans w/ write-ups to come:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
Rice (+5) & ML -Like A LOT[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
Kent St ML - Like A LOT[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
Tulsa (-3) - Like A LOT[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
Washington St (+11.5) - Like[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
Va Tech - Like[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
Purdue (+30) - Like[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
Tennessee - eh???[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
West Virginia - eh??? (TCU averages like 14 pts a game...but yet they are 14 point favorites??)[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
I haven't done much research. Just started on the Rice game. I am not a fan of betting teams on the road on weeknight games, so I try to pick it closely.

[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Check yaaa laaaaaaater[/FONT]
 
Rice Owls (2 team parlay: +7 & open) & ML (+170)

I remember it like it was yesterday...last year I picked ULL against North Texas during a Tuesday or Wednesday night game, they were 4 pt favorites I think & they lost SU. Since then I looked into N Texas' home success under McCarthey, & he has done quit well. Home field advantage is what he preaches, & the Mean Green have responded. I am very selective on picking weeknight games, mainly road teams. I think home field favors teams immensely on weeknight games. So far this year I am 3-0 betting road teams on weeknight games, so hopefully that will continue.
North Texas is statistically good against the run, & Rice loves to run the ball. However, they have are ranked 16th nationally in rushing attempts against. Rice ranks in the top 10 nationally in rushing attempts. North Texas still allows over 4ypc, & the only team they have faced that has rushed the ball over 300 times so far this year rushed for over 5ypc that game (MTSU has attempted 70 less attempts than Rice has this year). Rice's offense has been rolling lately (against lesser competition) w/ Charles Ross finally back & healthy the last few weeks & I think that makes Rice a much better team when hes healthy.
I think Rice will be able to slow down the Mean Green's passing attack a little bit, & probably get a couple TO's from Thompson since he has thrown 10 already this year. And the sloppy weather w/ all the rain that is going through Wednesday night through Thursday morning might help.
The sole thing that scares me is the home field advantage for North Texas. But a huge part of me thinks is saying that they benefited from it b/c people overlooked N Texas. I dont think they are going unnoticed anymore w/ the success this year, so I expect Rice to be prepared. I do think that Rice wins straight up b/c I think they are the best team in the conference. & if they dont, then I expect a good close game regardless, so I'm buying some points back to +7 & parlaying it just to be safe. 1 unit on the open parlay: +7 (currently deciding between Va Tech ML or the Ravens ML).
to win 1 unit on Rice ML

Washington St Cougs (+12)

It's going to be cold (40 degrees at KO, 20's by game end). Halloween night with all these freak shows. The home team dominates this series, & I'm not sold on Arizona St on the road (they have only played 1 true road game so far this year). I know Arizona St doesn't like the cold, & Todd Graham talked about how he doesn't care about the cold, so they will have to prove it to me. I think Washington St can keep it within single digits, & hell.....Mike Leach has done crazier things than beating a ranked team at home on Halloween.

Leans:
Tulsa -3
Kent St ML
Arkansas +9
Miami +22

A couple totals I'm looking at too. & I plan on Mastering SJSU....still LOVE that game.

Be back later peps
 
Couldn't have asked for better way to start the week. Super duper. I'm still trying to figure out how rice didn't score on 8 straight plays within the 5 yd line.....oh ya that's right, they kept running option and sweeps.


Oregon St Beavers -4

ill lll have the rest of the card up in a few hours. SJSU has been MASTERED
 
Really wish someone would have told me Mannion would have came to play in his Junior High form

Rice
Washington St
Oregon St

SJSU -3.5 & -4 ----- MASTERED
Tulsa -3.5 (not locked in yet, only locked in if Cody Green plays & I would bet it up to -7)
Kent St ML
Florida +3
Arkansas +8
Tennessee +10.5
Miami +21

FAU/Tulane U 47.5
UCLA/Colorado O 57


This is by far my least favorite card of the year. Only 1 game I really love. I'm basically letting it fly on all my leans this week. How this week has started it may be wise to fade, fade, fade.
 
GL Hammers- Perhaps I'm a homer but I love UT this weekend against Mizzou. Really excited to see how much the offense opens up with a quarterback that can run the ball and evade pressure.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

B.A.R.
Week of Saturday, October 5th Plays and Analysis Thread...
Replies
35
Views
750
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
Timh
CFB Week 4
Replies
13
Views
632
Timh
Timh
Timh
CFB Week 3
Replies
16
Views
522
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
Carolina Guy
Carolina Guy Week 4 Plays
Replies
15
Views
323
Carolina Guy
Carolina Guy
L
Week 1 Plays
Replies
9
Views
164
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
Back
Top