Been crazy busy this week & missed out on a lot of good early numbers. Some thoughts though for this week:
Feels like a good week for some top teams to go down. Seems to happen somewhat often the week that these "polls" come out this time of year. *hint hint*
L'Ville/FSU
Circled this as a game FSU would/could lose. The line movement is outrageous, but hey I guess other people think the same thing. Bottom line is that I have eye-balls that watch football games, & I have seen what these teams do. L'Ville has plenty of flaws, but so does FSU. People who say "Florida St just hasn't needed to play hard or good so they will bring it this week b/c they know how important it is" are absolutely fooling theirselves IMO. That's a good thing & justified thing to say for some teams though about week 6, but not in week 10. 'Ville hasn't played a gauntlet by any means, but when your defense is tops in the country in so many categories after 7-8 games, I highly doubt it's a fluke. The fact that L'Ville is very healthy now is also a tremendous added bonus. Gardner hasn't been great, but having a potential 1st rounder back at WR helps in many ways possible, especially when you have an offensive minded Head Coach.
Basically, I don't see FSU having much success on the ground at all, & yes it'll be on the best player in college football's back IMO. Jameis can do it, but he has also proven to make some mistakes & L'Ville has a defense that is very opportunistic on the back end. Add in that 'Ville has a very good pass rush against a Seminole OL that has been average, I can see more mistakes that normal for Winston.
Could be wrong b/c FSU is the better overall team w/ better talent, but a Thursday night road game against a team that matches up fairly well here....I've seen crazier things happen.
Don't know if I'm gonna play it b/c there's little value left IMO, but I'll probably get some action
I think Arky is live against Missy St. I love Missy St, but I do not see them getting to the Final Four. It would be a great story.....but I just don't see it. Pressure has to mount sometime?? Arky has been oh so close so much this year.....won't be surprised to see them break through. Although there are probably better spots to go against Miss St ahead.
Stanford could be live against Oregon. Even though this isn't the Stanford of old b/c they don't have a bruising back. Cardinal defense is the truth, & i laugh at national people dogging Stanford's OL. The OL play has been pretty good, tops in most areas for OL statistics. Problem is if Stanford can hold onto the ball long enough. I think Shaw has finally figured out to get his blue chip players on offense the ball....just took some time b/c it's not the normal Cardinal way they are used to.
SDSU/Nevada
I've watched basically every game these 2 teams have played, aside from Nevada last week @ Hawaii. Nevada, honestly IMO, is not a really good football team....Cody Fajaro just takes games over. Period. Rocky Long usually does a good job against these types of QB's (held UNC's Marquise Williams in check aside from one 15yd run) & option teams. Last year they held Nevada in check for 3 qtrs, then fell asleep for the last qtr of the game. Regardless, there is still every bit of chance for Fajaro to take this game over, b/c he has done it in virtually every game so far this year.
SDSU should have little problem moving the football.....Nevada's defense really isn't very good IMO. They should be able to run the football like they have all year long against tougher defenses. QB Kaehler looks near 100%, & the biggest thing is they get their best player back in WR Ruffin. Stat: Before Ruffin's injury SDSU passing offense averaged 280yd/gm, after Ruffin's injury they averaged 130yd/gm. Not necessarily b/c Ruffin gains 150yds, but b/c he takes slack off SDSU's younger WR's and demands more attention.
I'm pretty confident SDSU can come out of Reno w/ a win this Saturday. Not only are Kaehler & Ruffin healthy, but so is LB's Largent & Fely (although Fely's role I will expect to be limited). I believed preseason that SDSU's young secondary would benefit from playing Oregon St & UNC early in the year b/c it would prepare them for conference play, & I think the young D has looked better than expected.
I'll try to get some more thoughts up later. Cheers!
