TNF: Steelers
The Panthers are receiving a lot of love because of how well they’ve played the last two weeks. But these past two weeks haven’t shown anything new because we already knew that they are very strong at home. Whereas they are undefeated SU at home, two of their losses and two of their three non-covers have come on the road. They take a step back especially on defense. Their opposing passer rating at home is 80 whereas it’s 109.5 on the road.
After weeks of drama, the Steelers have found their groove with upstart running back James Conner. They’ve won and covered their past four games with Conner rushing for over 100 yards in each game. Conner is improving, rushing for 2.4 more YPC with 15 more carries in his last game against Baltimore than in his first. Pitt’s passing attack benefits from the attention that defenses have to pay to Conner. Roethlisberger has thrown eight touchdowns to only two interceptions in his past four games. He’s also found chemistry with Antonio Brown, who has six touchdowns in the last four games compared to three in his first four.
SNF: Eagles
Philadelphia is built to exploit Dallas’ weakness on defense. The Cowboys rank 27th in opposing passer rating. On Monday Night Football, they allowed Marcus Mariota to achieve his highest passer rating of the season en route to a 28-point effort for Tennessee’s low-ranked offense. The weaknesses are especially evident in both safeties and in second-year cornerback Chidobie Awuze, who hasn’t been the shutdown cornerback that Dallas is hoping for. Carson Wentz has had a superb season, averaging nearly 300 yards per game and producing a 13-to-two touchdown-to-interception ratio. After initial struggles with injury at quarterback and wide receiver, the Eagles’ pass attack is enjoying great chemistry.
Dallas has yet to top 20 points on the road. The problem is its pass attack, which even with the addition of Amari Cooper leaves much to be desired with Dak Prescott at quarterback. Dallas has the fifth worst passer rating on the road. Yet, with a pass defense that will be vulnerable to Wentz, Dallas will find itself having to pass. Plus Philly boasts the second-best run defense and will limit Zeke, who is Dallas’ offensive strength.
STEELERS: Panthers finally have to hit the road, where they don’t play as well. Steelers have found their groove with Conner at running back. Their defense has also strongly improved. They’re 4-0 L4 ATS.
BEARS: Detroit will have that much more trouble scoring against Chicago’s elite D after trading Tate. Also, Golladay has fallen out of favor with Stafford. Chicago will gash Detroit’s bottom-ranked run D.
BENGALS: This is a tough spot for the road faves. After upsetting the undefeated Rams, the Saints will have to travel and try to avoid a let-down. Dalton and his weapons can exploit NO’s bottom-ranked pass D.
BROWNS: I love the new o-coordinator. He knows how to utilize Duke Johnson, who will again be a weapon against Atlanta’s awful linebackers. Atlanta shouldn’t be favored away with its decimated defense.
PATRIOTS: It’s too risky to bet against the Patriots with a spread of a touchdown or lower. Tennessee’s secondary has been helpless against top quarterbacks like Wentz and Rivers. Brady will find a way.
JAGUARS: It would have been unheard of a few weeks ago to get the Jags as dogs in Indy. Rested after a bye week, this defense is still elite. The soul of Jax’s offense Fournette is expected to return.
CHIEFS: This is a huge mismatch. The Chiefs will score at will thanks to Mahomes, Hill, Hunt, and Kelce. Falling behind will expose Rosen to KC’s strong pass rush, who will make any rhythm impossible.
JETS: Sticking to my rule to never bet on Buffalo—even if it’s the Jets. Darnold will be more careful after throwing four picks. He’s bad, but better than that. Bills have scored 20 points in their L3.
BUCCANEERS: The difference in offensive firepower is huge, especially with the injuries to Washington’s offense. Skins rank 22nd in opposing passer rating, so expect more Fitzmagic, who will remain TB’s starter.
RAIDERS: I know that I wrote about Oakland throwing in its towel on the season. But they have a rivalry with the Chargers, so I think that they get up for this one. Double digits is too many points here.
DOLPHINS: Green Bay has only beaten one team by more than a field goal—Buffalo — and now they’re being asked to lay double digits. I don’t trust their inconsistent defense and Rodgers can’t do it all.
SEAHAWKS: The Rams’ defense has serious problems. Particularly the linebackers are mostly poor and the secondary is overrated. Both teams excel at controlling possession, so double digits is too much.
EAGLES: Philly is built to exploit Dallas’ pass D. I love Wentz to have another big game with a 100+ passer rating. The Eagles’ second-best run D will limit Zeke, forcing Dak to throw, who won’t keep up.
49ERS: SF is a lot better than its record indicates. They’ve lost three games by three points or less, so not much separates them from a winning record. Their better-ranked run D gives them the edge here.
The Panthers are receiving a lot of love because of how well they’ve played the last two weeks. But these past two weeks haven’t shown anything new because we already knew that they are very strong at home. Whereas they are undefeated SU at home, two of their losses and two of their three non-covers have come on the road. They take a step back especially on defense. Their opposing passer rating at home is 80 whereas it’s 109.5 on the road.
After weeks of drama, the Steelers have found their groove with upstart running back James Conner. They’ve won and covered their past four games with Conner rushing for over 100 yards in each game. Conner is improving, rushing for 2.4 more YPC with 15 more carries in his last game against Baltimore than in his first. Pitt’s passing attack benefits from the attention that defenses have to pay to Conner. Roethlisberger has thrown eight touchdowns to only two interceptions in his past four games. He’s also found chemistry with Antonio Brown, who has six touchdowns in the last four games compared to three in his first four.
SNF: Eagles
Philadelphia is built to exploit Dallas’ weakness on defense. The Cowboys rank 27th in opposing passer rating. On Monday Night Football, they allowed Marcus Mariota to achieve his highest passer rating of the season en route to a 28-point effort for Tennessee’s low-ranked offense. The weaknesses are especially evident in both safeties and in second-year cornerback Chidobie Awuze, who hasn’t been the shutdown cornerback that Dallas is hoping for. Carson Wentz has had a superb season, averaging nearly 300 yards per game and producing a 13-to-two touchdown-to-interception ratio. After initial struggles with injury at quarterback and wide receiver, the Eagles’ pass attack is enjoying great chemistry.
Dallas has yet to top 20 points on the road. The problem is its pass attack, which even with the addition of Amari Cooper leaves much to be desired with Dak Prescott at quarterback. Dallas has the fifth worst passer rating on the road. Yet, with a pass defense that will be vulnerable to Wentz, Dallas will find itself having to pass. Plus Philly boasts the second-best run defense and will limit Zeke, who is Dallas’ offensive strength.
STEELERS: Panthers finally have to hit the road, where they don’t play as well. Steelers have found their groove with Conner at running back. Their defense has also strongly improved. They’re 4-0 L4 ATS.
BEARS: Detroit will have that much more trouble scoring against Chicago’s elite D after trading Tate. Also, Golladay has fallen out of favor with Stafford. Chicago will gash Detroit’s bottom-ranked run D.
BENGALS: This is a tough spot for the road faves. After upsetting the undefeated Rams, the Saints will have to travel and try to avoid a let-down. Dalton and his weapons can exploit NO’s bottom-ranked pass D.
BROWNS: I love the new o-coordinator. He knows how to utilize Duke Johnson, who will again be a weapon against Atlanta’s awful linebackers. Atlanta shouldn’t be favored away with its decimated defense.
PATRIOTS: It’s too risky to bet against the Patriots with a spread of a touchdown or lower. Tennessee’s secondary has been helpless against top quarterbacks like Wentz and Rivers. Brady will find a way.
JAGUARS: It would have been unheard of a few weeks ago to get the Jags as dogs in Indy. Rested after a bye week, this defense is still elite. The soul of Jax’s offense Fournette is expected to return.
CHIEFS: This is a huge mismatch. The Chiefs will score at will thanks to Mahomes, Hill, Hunt, and Kelce. Falling behind will expose Rosen to KC’s strong pass rush, who will make any rhythm impossible.
JETS: Sticking to my rule to never bet on Buffalo—even if it’s the Jets. Darnold will be more careful after throwing four picks. He’s bad, but better than that. Bills have scored 20 points in their L3.
BUCCANEERS: The difference in offensive firepower is huge, especially with the injuries to Washington’s offense. Skins rank 22nd in opposing passer rating, so expect more Fitzmagic, who will remain TB’s starter.
RAIDERS: I know that I wrote about Oakland throwing in its towel on the season. But they have a rivalry with the Chargers, so I think that they get up for this one. Double digits is too many points here.
DOLPHINS: Green Bay has only beaten one team by more than a field goal—Buffalo — and now they’re being asked to lay double digits. I don’t trust their inconsistent defense and Rodgers can’t do it all.
SEAHAWKS: The Rams’ defense has serious problems. Particularly the linebackers are mostly poor and the secondary is overrated. Both teams excel at controlling possession, so double digits is too much.
EAGLES: Philly is built to exploit Dallas’ pass D. I love Wentz to have another big game with a 100+ passer rating. The Eagles’ second-best run D will limit Zeke, forcing Dak to throw, who won’t keep up.
49ERS: SF is a lot better than its record indicates. They’ve lost three games by three points or less, so not much separates them from a winning record. Their better-ranked run D gives them the edge here.
