Week 10 FCS.....

hoopsstar22

hoopsstar22

Captain of Vanzack's yacht
2* 9-2-1 ..... +14u
1* 10-12...... -2.75u

Week 9
2* 1-0
1* 0-1

Week 10
2* 1-1... 0u
1* 3-0..... +3u


FCS Plays

2* Davidson -18.5/VMI pk- L
2* App State/ Wofford o68 - W
1* UMass -6.5/Columbia +16.5- W
1* UMass -6.5/ Brown +9- W
1* UMass -6.5/ Davidson -18.5- W
 
Last edited:
2* Davidson -18.5/VMI pk


Still just an easy fade of Campbell. The Camels have been outscored 238 - 14 by FCS members. I don't expect to see that change.

Liberty just steam rolled Charleston Southern, and their lack luster offense doesn't bode well when going against the Nation's #1 rushing attack.
 
hoops, any opinion on Wofford at Appy St. (-2) (O/U: 68) tomorrow? Seems like the under would be ok bet with Wofford's option based attack (this is wtihout any research though).
 
Was wondering the same thing, hoops.... That game is going to be one of the only ones available for betting in I-AA until the playoffs.
 
I will let you know when I am able to get down....

Where is there a total? I only have a side available.
 
It opened Appy State PICK at CRIS and was at Appy State -2 after about 30 minutes or so.

The total opened 68 and has not moved.

Would appreciate your take as soon as you get your money down.

:shake:
 
Thanks Rexy....

I think the total is pretty easy...

2* App State/ Wofford o68

I'll do a little write up for you guys in a bit. But I'm going to eat dinner first.
 
Interesting to see the total drop. Just people with he Dmoney perception(no offense) that Wofford runs the ball 60 plays a game, and the clock will tick tick tick.

Not true.

I do see that it will be rather chilly in Boone, so that is another reason the total is dropping.

If you haven't played it, wait and get the best number if you can, but I'm fine with what I have.

In this game, I don't see either team stopping the other. I certainly don't wee App stopping Wofford. Their running game is just too damn good, and now they have an above average passing threat in Widmyer. App simply does not defend the run well. And as the game wears on, and Wofford is shuffeling in fresh runners right and left, they'll really wear down on that D as the night goes on.

The game should be jam packed with big plays from both side.
 
hoopsstar22 said:
Interesting to see the total drop. Just people with he Dmoney perception(no offense) that Wofford runs the ball 60 plays a game, and the clock will tick tick tick.

Not true.

I do see that it will be rather chilly in Boone, so that is another reason the total is dropping.

If you haven't played it, wait and get the best number if you can, but I'm fine with what I have.

In this game, I don't see either team stopping the other. I certainly don't wee App stopping Wofford. Their running game is just too damn good, and now they have an above average passing threat in Widmyer. App simply does not defend the run well. And as the game wears on, and Wofford is shuffeling in fresh runners right and left, they'll really wear down on that D as the night goes on.

The game should be jam packed with big plays from both side.
Click to expand...

Ouch.

Thanks for the write-up though. I'll look some more and may join you.
 
good luck this week.


Was it wofford or elon that you told me before the season that you liked them to beat appy ? Want to say elon ... back when we were having the poker palace discussions.

great job as usual with this fcs stuff and gl with the total.

list of where that total is available to bet ?? likely tailing.
 
Dmoney416 said:
If I'm not mistaken, all of his 2-teamers are teases, so -24.5 is likely the same line hoops got before the tease. I think he started doing this to avoid the -120 juice on these games.
Click to expand...

This is correct. Higher limits this way as well, and it doesn't move the line 1.5 points with every bet I make.
 
vegaskyle said:
good luck this week.


Was it wofford or elon that you told me before the season that you liked them to beat appy ? Want to say elon ... back when we were having the poker palace discussions.

great job as usual with this fcs stuff and gl with the total.

list of where that total is available to bet ?? likely tailing.
Click to expand...

Elon. I still think they will beat them at the end of the season.

That u10.5 was the NUTS. A damn shame everyone wore it out that day I found out about it.
 
As far as the side.... Let it climb.

I can't see any action junkies betting this tonight knowing WHO Wofford is, less alone them knowing what type of offense they have, and how bad App's defense is.

Its pretty telling that let Rodney Landers of JMU run all over them in the marquee game a few weeks ago. I know that he's a freak of nature, but they really are a 1 trick pony. He runs the QB draw about 20 plays a game, and passes about 15. No one else on the offense is much of a threat, but they couldn't key in on him, and stop them from winning the game.

Now they're facing this smash mouth Wofford offense, that has the 2nd bigest Oline in the SoCon, behind Samford. Samford just transfered into the conference this season, from a much weaker OVC, but they gave App one hell of a game, even though I was on the Mountaineers in that one. Armanti had 3 passing TDs, which is somewhat rare, and Samford got stopped on a few key 3rd downs, or that certainly would have ended different.

Apps special teams are their real achilies heel. Wofford should benefit from some good feild position all night, and may be able to get a return TD in this one. Also, another good thing that will be pivital in determining the total is Apps FG unit. Jullian Rauch was their starting kicker for the last 4 years, and holds every record a kicker possibly can at App. However, I believe the kicker this year is a rFr, and he's not quite there yet. Moore will be more inclined to go for it on 4th down in some normal field goal positions.

The only think that is preventing me from taking Wofford right this second is the fact that home field advantage will be INSAINE tonight. Its Halloweene, and the game is on ESPN2, so the reddnecks in Boone NC will be going absolutely nuts. There will be 30,000 App fans, and maybe 2000 Wofford fans there, if the Terriers are lucky. I would imagine the tailgating has already started for this one, and everyone has taken off work for the festivities.
 
Also, this line in this game last year move from Wofford -2 at home( which I indicated I liked in my leans), to App -8. Of course I was all over that 8. Wofford won 42-31.

And in a similar game last season against Ga Southern, App went from -11 to -22, which they lost at home 38-35, because they couldn't defend the run.

Those were 5dimes lines, that move much easier than real lines, but still something interesting dealing with the love for App.
 
Good shit hoops. Was thinking myself App State might not of been there mentally only shortly removed from Michigan win on top of the world. We saw in the playoffs App State was better.

.....But, App State lost a shit ton defensively and that is there weakness is it not. Especially DLine I believe. Ap State not as good as last year while Wofford appears better. Was checking out there schedule I think only common opponent Georgia Southern and both barely squeeked one out.

Definately see why you like the over Wofford will rush all night and Edwards is really really explosive.

Lean Wofford and Over myself although App State I think will have a different focus than last years matchup and I've seen young teams once it hits this time of year really improve and App State might be doing that defensively gaining experience. Been a while since that James Madison loss. ---Actually looks like App State has played some tougher comp, outside of Elon the Duffy Wofford's have played a bunch of Chattannooga's and really some poor comp that's why they've been putting up ridiculous amount of points.

Not sure if Wofford is the play or not. I think it might be pretty even.

----Looking some things up at the moment. James Madison is a hell of a team bro. Only loss to Duke and they are a great rushing team. Barely over 200 on App State which is good but it's not ridiculous if App State can contain Wofford I think Edwards puts points up pass defense appears to be the weakness of Wofford. I mean is James Madison's rushing attack worse than Wofford? Is there defense worse? Situatonally this is better for Ap State than James Madison game
 
Good shit hoops. Was thinking myself App State might not of been there mentally only shortly removed from Michigan win on top of the world. We saw in the playoffs App State was better.
Click to expand...
App played 1 good game in the playoffs last season. The championship game against Delaware. Maybe the semis against Richmond could count too, but 300 yards rushing from a QB will win just about any game. They should have been knocked out in the 1st round by JMU, buy they fumbled the ball on 2nd and goal from the 2 with 40 seconds left, and App recovered to win by 1.

You're right about App and their D. Not so good. They lost the entire secondary, and 1 DL, but their best returning DL Tharrington went down with an injury, in the JMU game I believe, and I'm pretty sure it was a season ending one.

I would agree a litte with your assment of the SOS advantage you give to App. BUT, they played a non scholarship Jacksonville team, piss poor PC team (which I'm very disapointed with), Middle of the pack Citadel, and a very over achieving Samford team.

Wofford has played PC, Charleston Southern, Chatt, and Western Carolina. Not the best of teams, but they shit cocked them all, and played PC with Tim Webb healthy, huge difference there. Don't forget they only lost by 10 to South Carolina. That's pretty damn impressive there. And SC certainly wasn't overlooking them, after they almost got beat last season by Wofford.

They do have another game in common, Ga Southern. Both were 1 point wins, in Paulson.

As far as your assement of JMU, yes, their rushing attack is not as balanced as Wofford's. Its completly 1 dimensional. As I said, 20 QB draws per game, and 15 passing attempts. How hard is that to defend against? Landers is just an absolute STUD, and makes it happen. I'm very high on JMU, and I think I've made a play on them every game but 2 this season. But Woffords run game is 20x more physical, and when you are shuffling in 8-10 fresh guys to carry the ball, its easy to keep legs moving.

Not sure how you think this game is a better situation?

Coming off the Jacksonville game where the 2nd string played the 2h, and with PC on deck, they had nothing to think about beside a team that wanted to tear their faces off for stealing last year's game.

But thanks for sharing your thoughts man! Its nice to actually have a healthy conversation/debate with someone, as opposed to just talking to myself in here.

Keep it comming! Interested to hear about anything else you find. It certainly keeps me sharp moving forward.
 
1* UMass -6.5/Columbia +16.5

I posted my thoughts on the UMass game in Bull's thread. Long story short, Rhode Island is in the middle of a transition for the option to the spread and the personnel just doesn't match the system right now. They went from the #14 rushing attack last season, to the #115 this season. Mass' D has finally started clicking, and this game could get ugly. RI has been able to beat up on Patriot, NEC, and Ivy teams, but a CAA power is a whole other story.

Bull predicted the total under 20, and I agree. I give him all the credit for this pick.
 
Hoop if I can get some hands on some tape I'll be in this thread every week I'm not sure how you and Bull can assess these teams without watching games.

Woffords run game is 20x more physical
Wofford it will likely be then be as you would know.

Not greatly impressed staying within 10 of South Carolina. Personally I bet Wofford could beat UAB and they stayed about as close. But Carolina matched up well against the run as the defense is the strength of their team. What is impressive is Wofford held Carolina to 200 about on the number passing so my mistake if I said Wofford's pass D might not be a strength they don't look bad.

Looks like Elon was the best win from either of these teams.

Situationally for App State just think it's more favorable when you have a home field espn2 night game with what appears to be a conference opponent that they are more familiar with than James Madison. Not to mention App State has revenge on the line and I think the youngsters in the secondary have improved quite a bit I would assume.
 
O, you don't need tape to know what's going on with these games.

5Dimes hangs GENERIC lines, derived SOLELY from Sagarin's numbers. I know on Monday, 90% of the numbers they will hang on these games within a simple .5 point, because of rounding differences.

Its not like in FBS, where odds makers have things down to a science, factor in situations, weather, injuries, coaching, rankings, situations, playing surface, historical matchups, this, that, and the other to have a sharp line.

In FCS, what ever Mr. Sagarin and his bullshit numbers say, goes.

They may be fairly accurate from a FBS standpoint, but for FCS...... WAY OFF.

A good friend of mine, Sammy Meatballs once said, believe only 50% of what you see. And that holds true escecially well here. Me not watching any of these games makes it alost EASIER to cap, because I have no visual bias to go off of, usually.

So I don't see all these little things going on, on the field, I can look at box scores more indepth, because hat's where all my information comes from.

As opposed to FBS, where I watch 20 games in 1 weekend, I have a bunch of visual blocks in my head about how shitty this team is, or how lucky that team was, and things of that nature.

But anyways, back to Sagarin and his horseshit.

The same mathematical stastical formula he has to generate a rating for an FBS school, in no way can compare to the FCS.

In the FCS, you have a lot of different gimicks that you just don't see in the FBS. The option is the biggest one. Outside of the service academy's, who else besides GaT runs the option? No one. But in the FCS, you have one of the top teams in the nation running it, and several others running a form of it.

Also, the spread is another big gimick at this level. Same thing relating to that.

Its much easier to find enormous mismatches at this level, because it is NEVER factored into the line that is hung, because not enough people can take advantage of it.

You'll often see a top 10 rushing team, going against a bottom 10 rush D, yet they are catching 24 points.

Now does that make any sense at all? A team can't stop the run against a 60-40 pass team, and now they're expected to stop an 85-15 run team? And not only stop them, but cover a 24 point spread? Hell no.

And also, Sagarin doesn't take into account the fact that teams play down levels significantly in the FCS.

How many FBS schools do you see playing a D2 team? None. But in the FCS, they're not only playing down a level to D2, but they're playing D3 and NAIA teams, and cranking off 700 yards against teams with 5'8 220lb linemen. Congtratulations.

But these teams that play down and pile up these gaudy offensive and defensive stats like that, just inflate thier ratings.

How many FBS schools do you see jump up 12 points in a power rating system from one week to another? The answer is NONE.

But Sagarin's formula allows this to happen all the time in the FCS.

If game A was played last week, the line would be team X -17.5 over team Y. But team Y has a cock diesel game against a cream puff, and now the game is lined at team x -6.5 over team Y this week. So team Y just gained 11 points out of thin air because of 1 good game. If you're still following me.

So in the FCS, you just look for this type of shit to happen. Then you factor in HUGE mismatches like a #3 passing attack, that averages 440yds through the air, against a #115 passing D, and you have an enormous missmatch that ISN'T situationally factored into the line.


If you want to catch some games live, channelsurfing.net has a bunch of them on Saturdays now, since DirecTV has a few FCS channels now, I think.
 
Hoop if I can get some hands on some tape I'll be in this thread every week I'm not sure how you and Bull can assess these teams without watching games.

O-State- I watch minimum two games of FCS every week. I'm sure Hoops does , too. Tomorrow I see Penn-Brown, Wm Mary-Towson, and Dartmouth-Harvard. That's in addition to the big game tonight.

Hoops- I think I gave you a bum tip last week to kill one of yur plays. Sorry about that. I certainly hope the two you coupled come through this week. Looking forward to tonight's slugfest. I have not seen Wofford this year.

I like seeing you with VMI in your tease. I'm considering them ATS,
GL
 
Nah Bull, Tennessee State was the right side last week.

They had a clear shot to the OVC title, and was up 17-3 heading into the 4thQ. SEMO scored 2 TD's to tie it up, Tenn St kicked a FG with 1:30 left to go up 20-17, and somehow SEMO got a FG as time expired to send it to OT. Then they won it from there.

maybe it was the week before with Yale I kinda went your way, but I really thought McLeod would get going, but he sure as hell didn't. But Fordham put that 2 point ass whoppin on them, despite outgaining them by 200 yds, yet neeeding to kick a FG with 13 seconds left. Oh well.

Good luck this weekend.
 
hoop - You're the guru on the FCS.

I just played my first teaser of the year (6 points).

Wofford +8 & Over 61 (-105) [0.8 Units]

Good play on my part? Or, am I a bonehead?

:shake:
 
I see noting wrong with that teaser. I probably would hav ewaited until game time, as the line should creep up, but I still like it.

GL
 
Really looking forward to it.
I took the Champs -1, and I'll be rooting for a lot of points.
When the total hits 70, I'll stop rooting for Wofford TDs.
GL Hoops
GL Aztec - Room for each of us to win there.
 
49 with 7 minutes left in the 2Q......

Not looking too bad, is it?

Not the start I expected from Wofford.... but....
 
hoopsstar22 said:
Thanks Rexy....

I think the total is pretty easy...

2* App State/ Wofford o68

I'll do a little write up for you guys in a bit. But I'm going to eat dinner first.
Click to expand...


73 points with :50 left in the 3Q counts as easy, right?


I apologize to those I lead astray with my lean to Wofford. Very nice hit on the side Bull.



:cheers:
 
Adding a few more...

1* UMass -6.5/ Brown +9
1* UMass -6.5/ Davidson -18.5

I wanted to get in a little more on UMass and Davidson both.

As for Brown, what can they do for you? Well, they feature the Nation's #13 passing attack, and with 9 points, they'll certainly have a punchers chance. Yes, Penn's D is solid, but their O will make up for that advantage.

Penn's 4 wins have come against teams that are a combined 6-21. Some world beaters there.
 
Looking for about a 4 team tease to spend some of freeplay money at 5D
Davidson, Dartmouth, VMI, UMass (? I already played them ATS )
Western Caro, Northern Iowa ??? Thoughts ??
Why is No Iowa a TD dog? Did I read something about an injured QB ?
Thanks, Hoops
GL today.
 
I feel confident in everything I played Bull, but all of my losses the past few weeks have come in the final minute of the games.Just been running that way.

I really like Mass, Davidson, VMI for the teaser. As for the 4th? I'm not so sure.

I'm not sure about Dartmouth, as they could get blown away, but you know Ivy much much better than I.

What ever you decide to play, GL. But I have ot run out the door, and head to the golf course.
 
Have a great round of golf.
I have busines to attend to :36_11_6:
Wife calls it "Mouse business"

Last night's game was that much more enjoyable knowing you bet the OVER. Funny as hell when it did roll past 70.
Nice going.
You play any FBS games ??
 
UMass taking care of business Hoops. Davidson up 7-0 early. Brown also up. Got that one on TV if you want updates. Can get Davidson on radio through their website.
 
I see where you loaded up on UMass. Good Man.
Nice to see an Ivy or two comethrough for you. :smiley_acbe:
 
Wow ! Liberty lost to Presbyterian.
Didn't mean a thing to me ( or you, I think ) but WOW !
 
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