Week 10 Discussion Thread

Vapster

Vapster

Awesome1#1
Brady Is Human After All. He Needs A Week Off.
Chargers/Raiders TNF. Raiders TT OVERS 5-0 Last 5 Weeks.
Brownies Favorites VS Bills? What Has Cleveland Showed Us, That Makes Us Wanna Wager On Them To WIn?!
Miami @ Colts. Miami 3-0 ATS & 3-0 ML 1st Half Last 3 Weeks...
Lions @ Bears. How's That Mack Trade Working Out Bears?! Under .500?! Damn. Jacobs Is An Awesome Back Though! Thanks!
9ers -5.5 VS Seahawks?! Shit...The Way The 9ers Playing, 8-1 To Win SB Is A Gift Right Now!
 
Very tempted to take Rams -3.5 off a bye. Hate betting against my team though.
 
Sea and Car both look tempting as dogs. GB has been so lucky this year. We got to see what happens when they don’t get every close call to go their way. SF is very good, but Kittle hobbled and the game should be a score fest.
 
Thursday night will be the last AFC West matchup played in Oakland. Stadium will be rocking for sure. Raiders TT over will be a play. Raiders first half will probably be a play. Im also very interested in Eckler props. Raiders have nobody who can cover him.
 
Coverdatspred said:
Thursday night will be the last AFC West matchup played in Oakland. Stadium will be rocking for sure. Raiders TT over will be a play. Raiders first half will probably be a play. Im also very interested in Eckler props. Raiders have nobody who can cover him.
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you thinking receiving yards props?
 
I’m telling you guys all this right now and you can quote it later;

Seattle and the points looks tempting because they want you to take Seattle and the points. The Seahawks team is really not that good. Wilson is but the Niners will be able to neutralize a team without other weapons. I think the Panthers are on par with the Seahawks and we saw what happened to them in San Francisco. Niners -6 for A LOT
 
D-Woww said:
you thinking receiving yards props?
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Yes. I’m thinking game script calls for more passing plays than runs. Eckler should have plenty of space to run routes. I haven’t seen numbers yet but I’m interested.
 
Patrick Mahomes MVP +1200... Forget my team allegiance. Value here... 2.5 less games and numbers close (absolutely not as good at this moment) to Wilson. They go on a run, you will never see this number again.
 
More in depth Bills/Browns thoughts later but this one is going overrrr. Bills cannot stop the run and Chubb with HUnt spelling him is just about as bad a matchup as they can catch right now. Even if Baker has a bad game I can see this getting into the high 40's.
 
All you have to say is McDermott vs Kitchens. Game over. End of story. But if you want to get picky about it.. Bills are allowing less than 17 points a game on defense. Only two NFL teams allow fewer points than that. Browns average 2 touchdowns per game. They average 19 points per game. Going against a defense that allows less than 17. PLUS.. look ahead. The Browns have the Steelers on deck - a pretty strong division matchup versus a team that's kicked the shit out of them for years. Four days from now. That's a strong lookahead compared to the the Bills, who have the Dolphins on deck with a full week to prepare. Don't let the Philly game mess you up on the Bills. McDermott and Josh Allen 9-3 against teams that average less than 23 ppg and 7-0 L7. Only one of those twelve teams scored more than 21 points, and that's exactly what the Browns are lined on their o/u.
 
austinhous said:
McDermott/Josh Allen 7-0 ATS on the road when they put more than 3 points on the board.
Click to expand...

I'm sorry but that is the silliest stat and it's not even accurate. They lost last year @Miami by 4 as 3.5 pt underdogs 21-17.

They covered as 10 pt dogs @Houston losing 20-13. Also covered @NE losing 24-12 (13.5 pt dogs). Only quality road win was @ the Vikings as dd dogs.

Allen didn't play vs Indy when they lost 37-5. They lost by 44 points @Balty & 22-0 to GB. So generate a stat to erase those games and make them look serviceable otr. They were 2-6 otr last season and beat the Jets, Giants, and Titans otr this season so let's not try and act like they are road warriors.
 
I highly doubt the Browns are looking ahead to anything but the offseason now. One could make the argument that they are toast and can't beat anyone, but I just don't think it's true.

I watch every Bills game and can tell you with certainty they cannot stop the run. They signed Liuget to help strengthen the dline, it's a glaring weakness that doesn't just shore itself up. Kitchen's playcalling has been trash but Chubb is a top tier rb and Hunt is back, I would have 30+ rushing attempts. To me on paper it's as bad a matchup as you can get for a reeling run d. To me the way the browns offense could get in trouble is if they try force feeding OBJ the ball.

Darnold, Eli, Mariota- those are the qbs the Bills have beaten otr. Clearly Baker is having a bad season, but 4 of 6 losses were to playoff teams.

Offensively, the Bills are still trying to find consistency, outside of Brown/Beasley it's been sketchy. However, Singletary is finally healthy and we got a glimpse of what he's capable of last week. I would expect around the same amount of touches for him vs a D that's allowing 140 ypg on the ground. Maybe they try and get Kroft involved @te, but it seems Knox is getting more of the looks in the passing game. They have been using Mackensie with the jet sweep and as a decoy with petty solid success lately.

At any rate I don't think this is the game to back the Bills otr, and wouldn't be surprised to see the Browns win by 10. Too much talent to continue losing the way they have been. I won't be fading my team, but I'll be rooting for points on the board.
 
Does anybody know why the Bears line jumped to -6* overnight?

Okay, just saw Stafford will not play today.
 
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I normally would hate moving against such a big line move, but can't you just see the Bears turning in a dominant performance defensively? Defensive td prop may be worth a look there but IMO Bears or nothing
 
My bad Lex, I didn't mean to call you out. I know you watch all the Bills games. But when you say there is too much talent to continue losing the way they have been, and the fact that Bills' lack of superstar players could make it difficult for fans of teams outside of the AFC East to name five starters on the roster.. that was an entire article written this week on how "Bills head coach Sean McDermott is doing the most with the least."
 
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What about penalties and discipline? From a coaching angle. Are the Browns penalties+discipline a worry though? Is that anything, because as a team Browns commit more average penalties per game than any team McDermott has ever coached against.
 
I usually go against public plays, especially dogs, and admit the game was lined kinda fishy, but everything I saw points to the Bills being better and cashing it in today. I hope to see a lot of points from the Bills today brother.
 
you didn't call me out, it's a discussion thread. I just think it's a situational nightmare for the Bills. I would absolutely love to watch them pound on the Browns, and hopefully they do!
 
Okay. Thank you Lex. I was worried. I didn't mean for that to be the first thing you saw when you woke up and subsequently negatively influence your day. Man, I usually go against public plays, especially public dogs like this, and I admit the game was lined kinda fishy IMO as well, but everything I saw in my research points to the Bills being better and cashing it in today (Also the line my database had on last years' fins game in question at 4.5). But agreed - I hope to see a lot of points from the Bills today brother.
 
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