Week 10 DFS/Props Discussion

[ScopeY]

May be short on time this weekend.

Quick summary for tonight. Maybe more later. Let's get it.

BAL/MIA

BAL DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D.
MIA DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, and meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is 7th for the week., O/U 9th out of 15.
Gaskin has the worst ALY push of the week. Bell? has the 10th worst ALY push of the week.

 

[2daBank]

lamar ov 239.5 passing yards seems doable to me.. i was looking at ov 1.5 tds which i think will hit but it way more expensive than the yards, and there always the chance he runs 2 tds in and doesnt throw for 2. i dont think there much chance he runs for so much he doesnt pass for this amount of yards tho!!

 

[2daBank]

i dont think i want to play Hollywood brown total, i like him but watkins back and Bateman coming on so while i think he prob still gets over 63.5 im not sure it incredibly strong, like there def a world where lamar hits his passing and brown only has 50-60 yards.

Do we think Sammy coming back is gonna hurt Bateman who been coming on as of late? his total is only 33.5, without watkins i say he roast this easy, i still kinda think he does, watkins just poses a little risk.

 

[2daBank]

Bateman targets been 6-6-8 since coming back, they drafted him high, liked him in college, i gotta think they keep targeting him at least 4-5 times even with sammy back, he should smash 33 yards if he gets that many targets tonight, id think 4 would do it!!

 

[survive&advance]

i dont think i want to play Hollywood brown total, i like him but watkins back and Bateman coming on so while i think he prob still gets over 63.5 im not sure it incredibly strong, like there def a world where lamar hits his passing and brown only has 50-60 yards.

Do we think Sammy coming back is gonna hurt Bateman who been coming on as of late? his total is only 33.5, without watkins i say he roast this easy, i still kinda think he does, watkins just poses a little risk.

I took Watkins under 35.5

 

[2daBank]

I took Watkins under 35.5

sweet, makes me like Bateman even more!!

 

[ScopeY]

juat getting home... we don't like waddle over 5.5 receptions --- again?

 

[ScopeY]

3 games with brissett he had double digit targets.

 

[2daBank]

Holy shit. I’m living a charmed life to hit Bateman and Lamar totals late! Bateman wasn’t so lucky but no way I should have cashed Lamar over passing! I’ll take it!! Lol

 

[ScopeY]

Quick summaries. --- please make me/us aware of injuries/mistakes

BUF/NYJ

BUF DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
NYJ DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 6th. O/U is T-8th. ---- big spread = 1 big TT even though its middle of the road o/u. BUF TT is 2nd.
White? has the 6th worst ASR matchup. Allen has the 6th best, 5th of the main slate.

ATL/DAL

ATL DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
DAL DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 1st. O/U is 1st.
Dak has the best ASR matchup.
Zeke has the best ALY push. Davis? has the 5th worst ALY matchup, 4th worst of the main slate.

NOS/TEN

NOS DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, bad vs P D.
TEN DVOA Matchup is meh bs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is 13th (out of 14). O/U 12th.
Tanny is tied for 9th worst ASR matchup. Siemien? has the 7th worst ASR matchup.
Kamara has the 2nd best ALY matchup. Peterson? has the 3rd worst ALY matchup, 2nd worst of the main slate.

JAC/IND

JAC DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, bad vs RB D.
IND DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is 11th. O/U is T-8th.
Lawrence has the 2nd best ASR matchup. Wentz has the 5th best, 4th of the main slate.

CLV/NEP

CLV DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, bad vs P D.
NEP DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is 12th, O/U is 10th.
Mac has the 5th worst ASR matchup. Baker has the 8th worst.
D. Johnson? has the 4th best ALY matchup. Stevenson? has the 6th worst, 5th of the main slate.

DET/PIT

DET DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
PIT DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 9th, O/U is last. And it was still last prior to lowering more with no Ben.
Swift has the 4th worst ALY matchup, 3rd of main slaate. Najee has T-8th worst ALY matchup, 7th of main slate.

TBB/WAS

TBB DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, meh vs RB D.
WAS DVOA Matchup is meh vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is 4th, O/U is 4th of the week (3rd of main slate)
Henicke has the 7th best ASR matchup, 6th of main slate. Brady has 10 best ASR matchup, 8th of main slate.
Gibson has the 7th worst ALY matchup, 6th of main slate.

CAR/ARI

CAR DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
ARI DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 10th, O/U 13th (out of 14).
Walker? has the worst ASR matchup. Murray? has the 4th worst.
Connor? has the T8th worst ALY matchup, T7th for main slate.

MIN/LAC

MIN DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
LAC DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 2nd of the week. O/U is also 2nd.
Cousins has the 4th best ASR matchup, 3rd of the main slate.
Ekeler has the 5th best ALY push.

PHI/DEN

PHI DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, meh vs P D.
DEN DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 8th. O/U 11th.
Teddy has T-2nd worst ASR matchup.
Howard? has 3rd best ALY matchup.

SEA/GBP

SEA DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, meh vs P D.
GBP DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is 14th (slowest...), yet O/U is 5th of week, 4th of main slate.
Wilson? is T-2nd worst ASR matchup, Rodgers has 9th best, 7th of main slate.
Collins? has T-8th best ALY matchup, T-6th of main slate. Jones has T-8th best ALY matchup, T-6th of main slate.

 

[survive&advance]

i've got a ton of props going today. lines have moved quite a bit on all of them but one that i just added is bolden under 39.5 rush yds

 

[2daBank]

I overslept today and had bunch of shit to do. Didn’t play much of anything, I have cook to score a td parlayed with carr ov 1.5 pass tds tonight. That bout it.

I can’t believe how bad Falcons were, holy shit!! I thought they would get way down then matty ice would put numbers up, only half that was right, wtf happened to smith? Thought he could coach offense??

 

[2daBank]

Bout fucking time cook got in. He has had 4-5 carries down there and they end up play fake throwing up te. I was starting to get pissed, wasn’t sure he get another chance. Now just need Carr!

 

[ScopeY]

Missed last nights summary, my mistake.

my best lineup is below...... in total, ended up profitting 50% over my buy-ins.

Had mostly Dak then Allen.... mixed in with a smidge of cheapies (like heinicke/lawrence)

Had mostly Dernest/Ingram, smidge of stevenson as my cheapies. Zeke then taylor/ekeler as my expensive. Had a piece of JRob too... so I really hit on my RBs as well.

Tried to focus Lamb/Jefferson/Diggs where I could but I couldn't afford it in every lineup, and using the alternatives hurt you badly (like beasley/sanders/cooper/etc.)... not a terrible week at that position either.

Pitts was ok... but he was also the most expensive TE... and not having conklin/henry (which would help you afford those top line guys) was the biggest pitfall for people trying to reach the top.... getting closer every week!




LAR/SFO

LAR DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, bad vs RB D.
SFO DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, and bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 5th for the week, O/U was T-5th.
Garop has the T-9th worst ASR matchup of the week, Stafford has the 3rd best.

I think I'll be prioritizing Kittle on the SFO side of things... its been the rams only vulnerable position defensively (not that they're terrible vs it but they're just better everywhere else). There were concerns of pitch counts last week, he hit 73% of snaps, and still ended up with 8 targets, 6/101/1 ---- I'd only imagine his snaps will increase, and the game script will be similar.

While I love Henderson, and think he can be optimal, I'm not prioritizing him.... it feels like its the first time all year he doesn't have the best DVOA matchup, nor a top 10 ALY push. The game script could help him, but I'd rather leverage myself with the passing offense. I dropped jefferson in a ton of leagues after the OBJ signing, but did manage to get him back in 2. Not saying he's a great future option, but I was waiting for an injury to one of the top 2 (woods kupp), but even still he was playing in an average of 91%+ snaps last 3 weeks, while averaging almost 7 targets a game in that span. Woods played in 100% of snaps last week, and I don't see OBJ going directly to that number (we will see...) and see more leverage (yet again) in taking jefferson over OBJ chasers. Kupp is still alpha status. Higbee can always be considered as a punt option too, and is really the only TE that sees the field on that team.

 

[2daBank]

cashed my only props in the 2 team parlay didnt end up playing any dfs thanks to oversleeping but prob wasnt a bad thing as i liked matt ryan and atl players a lot!! lol..

i really havnt seen anything tonight that im super excited to play. i lean to the game going over so maybe qb props could be good? i just didnt love anything enough where i thought had to be played, div game where both know each other well, niners results been all over the place, one thing i saw that might be worth a play is Aiyuk over 43.5 yards or whatever it was, he seems to finally be out the doghouse and he just as talented as Debo imo., as debo gets more attention i think Aiyuk will have some nice games..

the biggest square/mush i know text me early as shit this morning to tell me the lock of the year is Van Jefferson over 3.5 catches, he said he put his whole account on it (knowing this asshole that like 100 bucks, lol, dude makes 100k a year and bets 5 bucks a game and acts like world is ending when he loses!! lol).. i dunno if it means anything or not, im just saying this dude a total lemon who never even bet a prop until i told him bout them a month ago and now he has the cant miss play of the year!! he wanted to tell me early before "it got bet up" ! lol.. i dunno if it will cash or not, take it for what it worth, im just letting ya'll know the biggest stiff i have ever known thinks this the best play he has ever seen in his "weeks" of gambling experience! might be wise to avoid him, i swear every word i read made me want to fade more!!

 

[2daBank]

i guess i should have played Aiyuk this morning, finally talked myself into thinking he was a good play to go over 43.5 and now he freaking 49.5, apparently other ppl had the same idea, i hate losing so much value in the number and still playing.. gotta think niners gonna have to pass against rams d, dont think they gonna line up and be able to control them with the run game, gotta assume ramsey be taking out Debo a lot the game. Aiyuk has had 7 and 8 targets the last 2 weeks so think it safe to assume he out the dog house. still lean this way but not sure if ill play it.

my mush friend was correct bout jefferson, he is up to 4.5 receptions, im still not sure that a great play, not ready to assume he gets any the targets left by woods? who knows what rams game script will be? they could target obj a lot tonight, could be more a henderson check down game, Kupp might get 15 targets! im just not sure, certainly not sure enough to have laid -165 on over 3.5 catches!! seems the general consensus is he will get a few more targets.

 

[ScopeY]

3.5/4.5 receptions is doable. And I'd say its safe to assume he does get some portion of targets left by woods... woods was an everydown player and OBJ will not be doing that, atleast in this game. They can't all go to kupp.

 

[2daBank]

3.5/4.5 receptions is doable. And I'd say its safe to assume he does get some portion of targets left by woods... woods was an everydown player and OBJ will not be doing that, atleast in this game. They can't all go to kupp.

im not a huge fan of receptions myself, ive played a few of them in certain spots but for most part i usually would prefer yards. obj will def be limited i would think but there were several games woods didnt get a lot of looks this year, could be the 4-5 plays i imagine they draw up for odell could be the targets woods would have got. ive heard around 15-20 plays for obj a reasonable guess, id think he gets a decent percentage of targets when he out there. new teams usually try to get a diva wr some love when he runs routes! obj ov33.5 yards and even to score a td at +190 kinda tempting to me, even tho i know +190 is prob less than it should be given the name brand. 33.5 yards is way doable, i played djax over that kind of number once or twice and only took one catch for him to get it, i have no doubt obj will get a couple those djax shot plays, the question is with so little time together will stafford hit him?