Alright, November in the Big 10 and it will be 70 and sunny this Saturday in my neck of the woods. Good times...
Time to look back at last week's action. The more detailed summaries will be from the games I was able to watch a bit more of...
Ohio State and Penn State was one wild ride in that 4th quarter. Eary on, PSU had some fight on defense but couldn't move the ball. After a few picks, I honestly thought that was it for them. Another Ohio State score to get up 17-0 this one is over, and the Lions defense would wilt. Sure enough, bet them -20.5 and there goes a bomb and the game is 10-7. Laugh at me, dumb bet. The next two quarters was just some solid defense, some missed plays and we were starting to see a classic old style Big Ten football game.
Before we go further, what the heck was Stroud thinking right before the half? Just idiotic.
Penn State offense started to get a bit more consistent and sure enough they had themselves a lead as with around 11 mins to go. Then, a quick 3 play OSU drive where they finally looked like themselves. Then, the fumble and score. Holy shit, it's 30-21 and (also at this time with a 9.5 live I am starting to feel like there is a chance). Penn State FG, and then another pure OSU drive for a score and things are happening. Game spread, live spreads, totals are all in play. Now there is a pick-6, this is nuts...
Anyways, we know the final score here. Also, we know that Ryan Day will forgoe a 2point try after a penalty even when he should still go for it math wise. Color me puzzled twice during this quarter.
Anyways, Penn State played tough and deserved a better fate perhaps. Ohio State missed Miyan badly, and just seemed a bit off on offense for the 2nd straight week. Now, they are finally playing capable defenses, so we need to meet in the middle here capping this team. Wild game, nothing more, nothing less.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rutgers and Minnesota went as expected, I guess. The first half was over in like 1 hour and 5 mins, this was clock grinder for 3 quarters overall. Rutgers plays tough on defense, but the Minnesota team broke them down finally in the second half and rolled to a victory. Mo and the backs rushed for 250, Morgan game managed and Rutgers got very little from their QB's. The 17-point 4th was a surprise though and may have pushed a few 2nd half totals unexpectedly.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Illinois and Nebraska was interesting for a while. The injury to Thompson honestly took away any chance of an upset. The Huskers were getting some nice chunk plays early. Chubba and the lanky kid that can run just were not going to be enough versus a very good defense. I took Illinois 2H (two people I trust liked it and I had watched the hole half, 10-7 seemed reasonable to myself). This was ugly, but pure Bert ball.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Iowa scored 33 points. This is the worst Northwestern team since the late 80's, right? Good lord.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Michigan and MSU final was 29-7. This was not indicative of the dominance in this game. I said on this forum many times that Sparty would get an early score (figured trick play, instead they just played 'five hundred'). All that being said, Michigan was moving the ball and after the horrible 4th downplay this game was over. Minter continues to be masterful with his 2h adjustments. They had no chance to move the ball in the 2h half at all. Now, Michigan was not good in the Redzone once again. This needs to be worked on my N19 and N26, period.
I saw a good comparison earlier of this game. The 1997 team went into East Lansing and won 23-7. The game wasn't pretty, but they absolutely dominated (this is the infamous Woodson INT on the sidelines). I will say, JJ was a tad off in this game. He made up for that with some outstanding running plays. The rushing numbers were 276-37. Game. Set. Match.
Nice game by Coleman, he had 60% of their yards. He is a good one, big and physical. Bad game by the Rodrigo Blankenship lookalike. Really bad. This wasn't pretty, but Michigan has a system the last two years that they stick too. Period. Trust me, fans get pissed off. As they faced IU/PSU/MSU, all terrible in pass defense, fans expected much more throwing. The IU game was a one-off and they stacked the box. Jim and company simply want to run a power spread and beat you down. Nothing wrong with that.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alright, full slate this week, although the matchups are not all that great...Going to do some quick-hitters...
I bet Illinois right away Sunday at -14 and took 15.5 today. I would assume the 8 Spartans are still suspended. That isn't why I bet this. I bet this for a few reasons...
-Michigan State season is essentially over.
-Michigan State hangover
-2nd straight game against a big, physical opponent. MSU showed, that at least during a game, they are not very physical at all
-Bert has this train running well. He'll stick with the run and play-action against a bad secondary
-This should be a dominant 2nd half of ball control and long scoring drives.
31-10 seems about right.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Penn State and Indiana games always seem to be wild. The Hoosiers get the Lions off Michigan, White out game at night and then Ohio State. This is tough to get up for a 4th game after those 3 games. This feels like a very slow start.
No bets here, but I'd take the points in all honestly, even though Indiana sucks. This seems like a good over game as well.
Penn State 31-26.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Maryland and Wisconsin is a confusing one. I honestly cannot tie down 'what' Wisconsin is right now. The Terps are 6-2. and playing solid down the stretch so far. This would be a great program win, just to get one in this venue. Betting-wise, no thanks here.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Iowa heads to Purdue. The Hawks exploded on offense last week. Purdue hasn't played since getting beat up by Wisconsin. Other than that, no one has played more close games it seems than the Boilers... Tough feel on this game. My gut says that Purdue gets the win. My worry, turnover prone AOC against this defense. As always, we reply in Paintcrew for better capping.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Minnesota laying a hefty tariff in the road in Lincoln. I want to remember something Cub said last week. The Gopher staff will milk that play clock to half a second as much as possible in this game. Take that into consideration. The QB situation in NU is unsettled still, right? No Thompson, no chance. I think this is an under game, but maybe moreso live if the Gophers get out say like 20-3 at halftime.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ohio State will name their score. It will be curious how long he keeps Stroud in this one. The playing in 4th versus Iowa was pretty odd, why let him have a chance to get hit by that defense? The Cats are bad, really bad. Status on Miyan Williams? I think this spread should be 42 honestly. All depends on how hard they want to go. Day likes to run it up, and that is fine as a gambler. Stroud stat SZN as well. Hooker is now the favorite for the Heisman, so that might be part of Days gameplan.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Under the Lights in New Jersey, oh good times. This will be the 4th time Rutgers has a home game versus UM at home since coming to the conference.
This was 26.5-46.5 on Sunday. Those have dipped slightly as of a few hours ago.
This is a game that Michigan gets in, gets the win, and hopes for no injuries. Huge hangover game and frankly their mindset might be a bit off after last week's incident. I think you'll see a lot more of Donovan Edwards this week. This is hopefully a game you can limit Blake to under 20 carries and get him rested up for the home stretch. I'll tag
@2daBank in this paragraph.
Honestly, no ideas on bets here at all. This feels like 33-7 kind of game.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Okay, that is all for this week. Plays are in the Illinois game and possibly Ohio State. Let me address, for the last time, the crap that happened last Saturday night.
I'll preface, there will be many that don't agree, and that is fine. Pretty odd, but to each their own. The rest of this thread is for capping. I'll just move posts to Cavs thread...
The first thing people need to understand is this. This incident did not occur due to the following things...
-A tunnel
-Skipping
-Jim Harbaugh (this is the most laughable of all the theories -- some people got JHDS (akin to TDS).
You all remember a few weeks ago when James Franklin got things all heated up and his players were throwing PBJ's from their locker-room? Well, no one showed you the tunnel after the game. There is official video out there, the players from both teams walked in together and talked to each other (smiles, hugs and catching up). That is the essence of CFB. There is a protocol that is followed at half-time for entering the tunnel. After the game, players catch up with their buddies. This happens every week around the country on the field and towards the locker-room.
I read somewhere that JH has put the bitterness into the rivalry. Huh? This wasn't a very bitter rivalry until the year of 2007. Enter Mark Dantonio. I understand he had to do what he did with his words and actions in order to make the Spartans relevant. Fair enough, but that is how the rivalry became flamed...
-Gholston essentially trying to break Denards neck
-Narduzzi calling for 60 minutes of unnecessary roughness
-Dantonio running up the score in 2013 when knees were all that was needed.
-Michigan State staffers harassing Sarah Harbaugh in 2015 after the game.
-Michigan State not giving the trophy back after 2016.
-Devin Bush game
-Dantoni bringing the team out at the wrong time for a pre-game walk that same year linked together and breaking through UM players
-Jh and company still passing on a 4th quarter drive in 2019 while drilling MSU.
That is a pretty solid summary of things. Fwiw, Dantonio ran the score up on a few other B10 opponents. It is what it is. Ryan Day does it all the time. Jim did a few times at Stanford.
So, once again, what we start with here is the game ends and players celebrate on field, some catch up and then others head into the tunnel.
Why was Gemon Green in the tunnel? This doesn't really matter but he and his twin brother do this every game. The brother was not there this time, he was catching up with a friend (MSU RB Jake Broussard). The Green twins head in first almost EVERY game because they want to get cleaned up as quickly as possible and be able to leave right after coaches post game team address. The reason? Their dad owns as truck company and drives all the way from Texas (on routes) to see his kids play college football. He has to leave pretty quickly after, so the time to see their dad is short.
I am a 42 year old man. You know what era's I grew up in. If you are a real man, you fight one-on-one with no weapons involved. You use your hands. The crap that happened on Saturday night is as cowardly as it gets. Gemon, was attacked first. One guy, who finally got suspended today PUT HIS HELMET back on then started punching him. He was then held down briefly while another Spartan beat him with a helmet.
Cowards.
At some point in this, McBurrows was coming to the defense of Green and was jumped by 4-8 (arbitrary number) Spartans who kicked him while on the ground.
Absolute Cowards.
NONE of this was warranted. Unless these kids had just murdered someone(example), there is ZERO reason for this to happen.
This was a disgusting act. Almost as bad was the security guards and staffers who did jack-shit. The most notable was MSU Director of Football Operations, who ran away like a girl. This was the same guy who came out of the tunnel all TOUGH pregame and was shouting at the ABC cameras to get out of the way. Heck of a MAN you are Ben Mathers.
We'll see what the conference does, and obviously the legal ramification's that come with this. While Tucker and company got the early suspensions announced pretty early, they somehow left their best defensive player off that list till tonight. This kid was at the podium after the game and said he no clue about the incident. Good lawd.
Anyways, hopefully Green is able to come back. He is in protocol and his pretty mentally damaged per his father (yes, I get this could be emotional statements plus the Tom Mars hiring). Adults will need to be taken to task for doing nothing. I understand the culture in America right now with police etc, but you have to do the right thing.
All I know, is that MSU better get their tunnel situation figured out by next year. Yeah, they have one tunnel as well.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
An aside to all this, and feel free to discuss this part...
2024 brings big changes in the conference. There will be different divisions/pods/etc. In my opinion, and many others, the Michigan AD needs to request for this game not to be a protected rivalry game anymore. You know TV is going to push for OSU/UM to be involved with the LA schools. Minnesota I believe is actually an older rivalry. Ohio State game isn't going anywhere.
The MSU game has zero benefit for Michigan
Generally, Michigan is the better team and favorite.
A win does very little for SOS factor as for most of their history, MSU hasn't reeled off many great years in a row (early 2010's exception).
That is the Super Bowl for MSU. Michigan would much rather play OSU,PSU and heck ND. Better ratings and generally better opponents.
Unless MSU can get out of this contract soon. this will be a long decade with Tucker. He simply is not a good coach. The numbers support this. Saturday was his 19th loss in his 40 games as a head coach. SIXTEEN of those have been by double-digits. Not good. Now, they have a good NIL collective and will throw any money around they can to be good... so, we'll see but the future isn't that bright right now.
Anyways, that is my final take on that crap, please take any thoughts to the other thread and I'll peak there.
Discuss this week's games, my interesting thought on protected games and anything else B16 related as we head into the home stretch!
