Week 10 ~ 2021

[mrpickem]

NFL

LAST - [0-1 -5.4u]
Wk 9 - [9-8-1 +7.82u]
2021 - [84-77 -5.75u]

THURSDAY:

• 3/2.88 RAVENS -8½ -104
• 3/2.86 Ravens / Dolphins UNDER 46 -105

randoms...

• Ravens & under ...the advantage of being the home team for a Thursday game faces a stern test because if it weren’t for a lucky win against the Patriots opening week when NE dominated the statistics and a victory against the hapless Texans this past Sunday, Miami would be 0-9. The Fish lack an identity and they excel in no area. Tua Tagovailoa missed the Texans’ game because of a finger injury on his throwing hand and is unlikely to play tonight on last report being downgraded to doubtful. The Ravens, however, have won only two game by more than six points so they are hard to trust covering a margin. This is their first road game since Week 4. They have won four games by a combined 12 points, two of which came in overtime. I like BAL and the under both by slim margins, so likely smallish plays

 

[C-MAN]

GL tonight. Where are those Miami cheerleader??

 

[mrpickem]

GL tonight. Where are those Miami cheerleader??

 

[mrpickem]

NFL

LAST - [1-1 -0.14u]
2021 - [85-78 -5.89u]

SUNDAY:

• 4/3.81 Jaguars +10 -105
• 4.20/4 Patriots -2½ -105
• 4.20/4 Browns / Patriots UNDER 45 -105
• 5/4.76 Cowboys -8 -105
• 4.20/4 Falcons / Cowboys OVER 54½ -105
• 5/4.55 Saints +3 -110
• 4.20/4 Lions / Steelers UNDER 41-105
• 5/5.25 Seahawks +3 +105
• 5/6.50 Raiders +130
• 5/4.76 Panthers +10 -105

randoms...

• 
  SEA +3 ...Seahawks finally get Wilson back, and the Packers don't seem to be in a great spot. A drama/injury filled team that has had to prepare virtually with Rogers...no practice for a 16-year vet is hardly insurmountable but not optimal and doesn't inspire much confidence laying even a FG. SEA does travel well going 9-2-1 L12 as away dog! It feels like the type of game where Wilson has his team in it until the final whistle and I wouldn't be surprised if SEA cashes ML tickets as well.
• LV ML ...loving this play, for a few reasons. First, LV has performed admirably as a slight dog, going 3-1 ATS and outright as dogs this season <= 5. KC on the other hand has been a real life and ATS disaster, failing to cover all spots as slight favs this year. The Raiders do a great job of getting to the QB, and should have Mahomes on the run, which in turn could result in some poor/forced throws. Derek Carr and the offense hasn't been all great lately, but vs a poor KC defense I like them to hold their own. I'll back the Raiders tonight on the ML and maybe a little on the # if it hits 3.
• NO +3 ...TEN picked up a surprising win last week vs the Rams despite just 194 yds of offense. NO meanwhile is on a 7-1 ATS run as away dog. An excellent Saints D(ranks 5th in both scoring D and yards per play allowed) should stymie the TEN run game, make them one dimensional and have Tannehill on the run.

 

[mrpickem]

adding...

• 4.20/4 Chiefs / Raiders OVER 52½ -105
• 8.16/8 Lions / Steelers OVER 40½ -102
• 4.40/4 Chargers -3 -110

I am flipping on DET/PIT total as I'm just following the money and noting all the injuries on defense.

 

[mrpickem]

last 2...smaller plays

• 2/1.90 Lions +5½ -105
• 2/2.16 Eagles +108

​

 

[mrpickem]

NFL

LAST - [9-6 +2.98u]
2021 - [94-84 -2.91u]

MONDAY:

• 4/3.96 RAMS -3½ -101
• 4/3.28 1H RAMS / 49ERS OVER 24 -122

randoms...