Week 10 ~ 🏈📢👀

[mrpickem]

MONDAY
5/4.76 Buccaneers +9 -105
2/1.90 Chiefs u45½ -105

SEASON [99-113 -56.66u]
WEEK 9 [9-12-1 +0.31u]
LAST [1-1 +2.76u]

WEEK 10​

THURSDAY​

• 5/4.76 Ravens -5½ -105
• 4/3.64 Ravens u53½ -110

randoms...

2024 DOGS OVER 5 POINTS ARE 24-14-2 63.2% ATS FOR +20.6% ROI​

ROAD TEAMS 74-57-3 56.5% ATS THIS SEASON FOR +7.8% ROI​

ROAD CHALK 30-17-2 63.8% ATS THIS SEASON FOR +21.9% ROI​

OVERS 50-36-1 58.1% FOR +11% ROI SINCE WEEK 4(6 WEEKS)​

CIN 15-5 ATS AS SMALL ROAD DOG OF 3-7 PTS L7 YEARS (1-0 THIS YEAR)​

BAL 9-15-1 ATS AS HOME FAV OF 3-7 PTS @HOME L7 YEARS(0-0 THIS YEAR)​

BAL #2 MOST PENALIZED TEAM @66.9 YPG​

CIN THE LEAST PENALIZED TEAM @37.2 YPG​

CIN #1 ON 3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS AT 50.4%(BAL #5 @46%)​

CIN #31 STAPPING 3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS AT 48.7%(BAL #29 @46.9%)​

PRIME TIME RECORD LAST 5 YEARS​

CIN ATS 10-7 58.8% / SU 12-7 / TOT 8-10​

BAL ATS 19-12 61.3% / SU 19-12 / TOT 15-15​

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[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

THURSDAY
5/4.76 Ravens -5½ -105
4/3.64 Ravens u53½ -110

SEASON [99-115 -65.66u]
WEEK 10 [0-2 -9.00u]
LAST [0-2 -9.00u]

SUNDAY​

(Early breakfast in Germany game: 930am)

• 5/4.61 GIANTS -6½ -108
• 3/2.86 Panthers u40½ -105

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randoms...

DOGS OF 6 OR MORE 25-14-2 64.1% ATS FOR +22.4% ROI IN 2024​

ROAD TEAMS 75-57-3 56.8% ATS FOR +8.5% ROI IN 2024​

ROAD CHALK 30-17-2 63.8% ATS FOR +21.9% ROI IN 2024​

Under is 19-7 in NYG last 26 games on grass.​

CAR 16-30 34.8% ATS VS TEAMS WITH LOSING RECORD L7 YEARS​

NYG ON GRASS L7 YEARS: 21-12 63.6% ATS WITH TOTAL 13-20 39.4%​

 

[mrpickem]

My 1pm action...

• 3/2.86 Colts +4 -105
• 3/3.00 Colts u46½ +100
• 3/2.73 Vikings -6½ -110
• 3/2.86 Jaguars u43½ -105
• 3/2.31 Commanders -130
• 3/2.78 Broncos +7½ -108
• 4/3.81 Chiefs u42 -105
• 3/2.86 49ers -6½ -105
• 4/3.70 49ers u50½ -108
• 1/2.40 Patriots +240
• 3/2.86 Bears u38½ -105

I played these around 930, so a couple lines changed a little fwiw

 

[mrpickem]

4pm tilts...

• 4/3.81 Chargers u40 -105
• 3/2.73 Eagles -7 -110
• 3/3.00 Cowboys u44 +100
• 2.10/2 Cardinals +2½ -105
• 3/2.78 Cardinals u46 -108

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

Sunday night...

• 3/2.86 LIONS -3½ -105
• 3/2.86 Texans u49 -105

9-7 on the day but basically spinning my wheels, only up about 2u

JETS fans feeling it...



...and then there's the bears

 

[mrpickem]

SUNDAY
5/4.61 GIANTS -6½ -108
3/2.86 Panthers u40½ -105
3/2.86 Colts +4 -105
3/3.00 Colts u46½ +100
3/2.73 Vikings -6½ -110
3/2.86 Jaguars u43½ -105
3/2.31 Commanders -130
3/2.78 Broncos +7½ -108
4/3.81 Chiefs u42 -105
3/2.86 49ers -6½ -105
4/3.70 49ers u50½ -108
1/2.40 Patriots +240
3/2.86 Bears u38½ -105
4/3.81 Chargers u40 -105
3/2.73 Eagles -7 -110
3/3.00 Cowboys u44 +100
2.10/2 Cardinals +2½ -105
3/2.78 Cardinals u46 -108
3/2.86 LIONS -3½ -105
3/2.86 Texans u49 -105

SEASON [110-123 -60.88u]
WEEK 10 [11-10-1 -4.22u]
LAST [11-8-1 +4.78u]

MONDAY​

• 3/2.31 Rams -130
• 4/3.81 Rams u49 -107

randoms...

• DOGS OF 6 OR MORE 30-16-2 65.2% ATS FOR +24.5% ROI IN 2024
• ROAD TEAMS 80-63-3 55.9% ATS FOR +6.8% ROI IN 2024
• ROAD CHALK 32-22-2 59.3% ATS FOR +13.1% ROI IN 2024
• MIA 2-9 ATS & SU IN LAST 11 GAMES
• MIA 3-10 ATS L13 MNF (GOES BACK TP 10/4/2010) 0-2 L2 YEARS ON MNF
• LAR 5-4-2 ATS ON MNF L7 YEARS (8-4 UNDERS)
• LAR 18-10-1 ATS IN PRIME TIME L5+ YEARS(21-8 UNDERS)
• Rams have turned their season around, winning 3 in row and including 26-20 last week @SEA in OT. MIA’s offense has looked better (377 & 373 yds) in 2 games since Tua returned. Tua has hit 80% since return. Rams allowed 317 pass yds last week but did have 3 int’s including 103-yard-pick-6. The Fish D has allowed 325+ yds in each of L2 games after holding 5 of their first 6 opps under 300 yds. The Rams DL is a developing strength and had 7 sacks last week. LAR also allows just 105 rush ypg (3.6) over the last 4 games. MIA pass D has allowed a mere 183 yards per game over L5. Stafford has 577 yards w/6 TDs L2 weeks since getting Kupp and Nacua back...which has opened up Demarcus Robinson who had a big game last week, (6 rec, 94 yds, 2 TDs). The Rams OL is also getting healthier and has allowed only 1 sack L3 games. Rams small home chalk and are trending right at 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS since bye. Last season LA went 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS after their bye, so maybe there's something to gleem here. I like LA but with ML at -130 I'll avoid possible close game point-fuck.
• PRIME TIME RECORD LAST 5+ YEARS

MIA ATS 7-10 41.2% / SU 7-10 / TOT 5-12​

LAR ATS 18-10 64.3% / SU 16-13 / TOT 8-21​