KobeJames823
Pretty much a regular
Hello All,
I try and post plays here as much as possible but the past few years, working a desk job (where the site is blocked at work) didn't leave me much time to come post my plays. This year, I'm back in school so I should have more time to both track my plays and offer my insight in to the why. Anyway, best of luck and on to the picks.
FRIDAY
Stanford - 15
This play is a little weird going with a QB making his first ever start (Ryan Burns) but I love the play here. First off, you have the usually Monday Night Football play of a Midwest/East team traveling West to play in Prime Time. I won't bore you with the science of bodies clocks and peak time but there is a definite advantage to Stanford playing a home game around six versus Kansas State playing at 8. Second reason I love this line is Kansas State is starting Jesse Ertz, a guy who is talented but that talent has never played a real NCAA game. Stanford has enough returning starters defensively (7 guys) that they should be able to handle Kansas State, who has four new starters across the offensive line.
SATURDAY
Michigan/Hawaii U54.5
Michigan starts a crazy 16 Seniors on both sides of the ball but they likely will have some drama at the QB spot with either Wilton Speight or John O'Korn getting the start. I figure Harbaugh goes with Speight because he's younger and if he struggles, makes more sense to go to the experienced Korn but either way, I assume the game plan will not call for a ton of offense. Defensively, Michigan should have little problem with what Hawaii wants to do (intermediate passing + a heavy run game) and considering the travel aspect (Hawaii has flown nearly 10K miles the past 10 days) and the start time (Noon local, 7 AM Hawaii), I have little faith in Hawaii putting up more than say 13 points and if that's the case, it would take a great day of defense and special teams for Michigan to get to 41. Considering Harbaugh is excited to work out his two deep rotations, I don't see that happening.
Ohio State - 16 1H
This one is a more or less a feel for Bowling Green in this spot than it is a true handicap play. While I like the Falcons in the MAC, I think they're outclassed here and with only 11 returning starters for Bowling Green, I simply don't think they have the experience to go into the Horseshoe and keep this close. I know tOSU is bringing back even less starters but they're bringing back a QB in JT Barrett who should have little problem moving the ball against this team. With teams like this, I typically like laying the points more so than I do with say last year's team because last year's team KNEW how good it was and it didn't have that same drive to impress like I think a younger team will drive to impress.
Oklahoma TT O 40
Houston is starting three new guys in their secondary and OU is returning a lot of their passing offense from a year ago; most notably quarterback Baker Mayfield. It would absolutely surprise me if the Sooners don't hang at least 45 on the Cougars on Saturday.
LSU - 10.5
Wisconsin isn't "Wisconsin" this year (they're a surprising sixth in the conference pre-season in o/u wins with a projection of just 7). With the way their offense is set up, I don't see how they keep it close against LSU and company even with home field up in Lambeau. Last year they were outclassed on the ground by Alabama and LSU is going to be able to do something very similar in this one. LSU is one of the most experienced teams in the country coming of a ten win season where as this is a new QB/RB for Wisconsin from an 8 win team a year ago.
USC/Alabama U 52.5
I was thinking I liked the over in this game but then I realized that a total of 52.5 really means I think someone is scoring in the low 30s and I don't see that from either team in this one: Alabama has too many new guys at the skill positions offensively and while I like Max Browne for USC, I think he's going to keep this game close more so than he's going to lead a shoot out here. I think taking the points is advisable as well as I could definitely see this game having a late garbage TD for the Trojans or just Alabama struggling to get the offense going. While I get the revenge angle for Kiffin and the Tide, I could definitely see him trying to "over coach" this and the Tide winning a close game late with the defense.
I try and post plays here as much as possible but the past few years, working a desk job (where the site is blocked at work) didn't leave me much time to come post my plays. This year, I'm back in school so I should have more time to both track my plays and offer my insight in to the why. Anyway, best of luck and on to the picks.
FRIDAY
Stanford - 15
This play is a little weird going with a QB making his first ever start (Ryan Burns) but I love the play here. First off, you have the usually Monday Night Football play of a Midwest/East team traveling West to play in Prime Time. I won't bore you with the science of bodies clocks and peak time but there is a definite advantage to Stanford playing a home game around six versus Kansas State playing at 8. Second reason I love this line is Kansas State is starting Jesse Ertz, a guy who is talented but that talent has never played a real NCAA game. Stanford has enough returning starters defensively (7 guys) that they should be able to handle Kansas State, who has four new starters across the offensive line.
SATURDAY
Michigan/Hawaii U54.5
Michigan starts a crazy 16 Seniors on both sides of the ball but they likely will have some drama at the QB spot with either Wilton Speight or John O'Korn getting the start. I figure Harbaugh goes with Speight because he's younger and if he struggles, makes more sense to go to the experienced Korn but either way, I assume the game plan will not call for a ton of offense. Defensively, Michigan should have little problem with what Hawaii wants to do (intermediate passing + a heavy run game) and considering the travel aspect (Hawaii has flown nearly 10K miles the past 10 days) and the start time (Noon local, 7 AM Hawaii), I have little faith in Hawaii putting up more than say 13 points and if that's the case, it would take a great day of defense and special teams for Michigan to get to 41. Considering Harbaugh is excited to work out his two deep rotations, I don't see that happening.
Ohio State - 16 1H
This one is a more or less a feel for Bowling Green in this spot than it is a true handicap play. While I like the Falcons in the MAC, I think they're outclassed here and with only 11 returning starters for Bowling Green, I simply don't think they have the experience to go into the Horseshoe and keep this close. I know tOSU is bringing back even less starters but they're bringing back a QB in JT Barrett who should have little problem moving the ball against this team. With teams like this, I typically like laying the points more so than I do with say last year's team because last year's team KNEW how good it was and it didn't have that same drive to impress like I think a younger team will drive to impress.
Oklahoma TT O 40
Houston is starting three new guys in their secondary and OU is returning a lot of their passing offense from a year ago; most notably quarterback Baker Mayfield. It would absolutely surprise me if the Sooners don't hang at least 45 on the Cougars on Saturday.
LSU - 10.5
Wisconsin isn't "Wisconsin" this year (they're a surprising sixth in the conference pre-season in o/u wins with a projection of just 7). With the way their offense is set up, I don't see how they keep it close against LSU and company even with home field up in Lambeau. Last year they were outclassed on the ground by Alabama and LSU is going to be able to do something very similar in this one. LSU is one of the most experienced teams in the country coming of a ten win season where as this is a new QB/RB for Wisconsin from an 8 win team a year ago.
USC/Alabama U 52.5
I was thinking I liked the over in this game but then I realized that a total of 52.5 really means I think someone is scoring in the low 30s and I don't see that from either team in this one: Alabama has too many new guys at the skill positions offensively and while I like Max Browne for USC, I think he's going to keep this game close more so than he's going to lead a shoot out here. I think taking the points is advisable as well as I could definitely see this game having a late garbage TD for the Trojans or just Alabama struggling to get the offense going. While I get the revenge angle for Kiffin and the Tide, I could definitely see him trying to "over coach" this and the Tide winning a close game late with the defense.
