EDizzle
The Danny Snyder Fanclub
I’m going with more a matchup/statistical based analysis this season. Pretty much the same things I’ve been doing in years past. My regular season ATS record was 53%...hopefully this year I can get it above the 60% mark.
I’d like to take a look at some of these matchups and might pull some stats from this book I bought. They are performance metrics for each player who played last season so there are a lot of variables that will come into play. Still I would like to see where this can go. Regardless of that, ultimately it will be my opinion when I make a play on a game. So here are some numbers and my opinion on some of these games. Feel free to add anything.
I’m going to start with the first game of the week and then a few others that have caught my eye.
Washington +3.5 @ NY Giants
QB Jason Campbell vs. Eli Manning
Last season statistically Eli had a less than average season, but I would say the Giants QB situation is more than stable. His numbers were similar to his previous season. He had 23 TD, 20 INTS 6.4 YPA and a 3.6 SYPA (success % x YPA) He rated the 31st for QB totals for all throws short/med/long/bomb. These stats are being pulled from KC Joyner Scientific Football 08.
Jason Campell tied for 27th with 12TD 11 INTs 6.5 YPA and 3.9 SYPA. Campell ran Joe Gibbs horizontal offense last year and 60% of his throws last year were short routes, and 59% of his yardage game from these throws. That is where Jason had most of his success, as his success % drops after the short routes. This year he is adjusting to Jim Zorns offense, so time will tell how he adjusts to this.
The Giants have the advantage at QB here, they have a more stable situation around him. It will be up to Washington’s defense to force Eli into making some bad decisions.
RB Clinton Portis/Ladell Betts vs. Brandon Jacobs/Ahmad Bradshaw
Both of these teams have very talented backs. Clinton Portis ran for 3.9 YPA Jacobs had a little more success gaining 5.0 YPA. Both Washington and NY Giants Defenses will have to strap it up. Both will see plenty of rushing attempts.
WR
Santana Moss/Antwaan Randle El vs Aaron Ross/Corey Webster
Aaron Ross was a rookie last year and showed some good signs, but he only faced 42 passes last year so I would still say he is a green corner, we’ll see how an offseason treated him. He still gave up 8.5 YPA. Now I’m not positive on the Giants depth chart maybe some of you NY guys can help me. I don’t have any numbers on Webster, who I think is your number 2. He played ok last year, I will be keeping an eye on player performance for the future games obviously. Behind Webster you have either Dockery or Madison and they were rated in the bottom 3rd of the league.
Randel El quietly had his best season as a pro last season gaining 9.4 YPA, Santana was rated 49th with 7.8 YPA. Santana does good against the yellow/green corners(Red corners average less that 7 YPA, yellow 7-9 YPA, green 9+YPA) and the Giants do not have any red corners.
I do believe the redskins WR’s have an advantage over NY’s CB’s. And I’m sure we will see some of the rookie Devin Thomas and James Trash for sure. Washingtons sucesss in the passing game will depend on how they can handle NY Giants pass rush, more on that later.
Plaxico Burress/Amani Toomer/Steve Smith vs. Sean Springs/Fred Smoot/Carlos Rodgers
Toomer doesn’t do well when matched up against top level corners and Springs and Smoot were one of the highest rated CB tandems last season giving up 5.9 YPA. Plaxico played thru an injury the entire season and is one of the biggest mismatches in the NFL. The redskins will have their hands full with him, but it would not be out of the ordinary for them to contain Plax. I don’t have any numbers on Steve Smith and im sure he will also see some action. Rodgers looked good before he was injured last season, Redskin fans….how’s he looking this year? The redskins have a solid set of CB's and Laron Landry can make some plays. I believe their secondary has the advantage.
TE
Chris Cooley vs. Michael Johnson/James Butler
Cooley was the 11th rated TE last season, although nearly half of his attempts came when he was flexed out as a WR. I do think the giants LB’s and safeties will have trouble with him. Who knows where Kenny Philips will be used, I’m sure he will be more integrated with the defense when he gets more comfortable with it.
Kevin Boss vs. Laron Landry/Reed Doughty
Boss didn’t get much action last year, only 9 catches 118 yards, 2 of them TD’s. He did have that one big catch in the superbowl. He is not Jeremy Shockey, but he could be a good player. He is just inexperienced so I don’t have any performance metrics on him, we will see if he can endure the rigors as the full time tight end. Landry looks like he can be a special player
Advantage goes to Cooley.
Redskins OL vs. NY Defense
The redskins wont have to block 2 out of NY’s top 3 pass rushers from 1 year ago. Kiwanuka will move from his linebackers spot back to the dline joining Justin Tuck and Fred Robins. These guys are talented, and there is depth behind them. We'll see if they are up to the task.
The Redskins had a lot of injuries to their oline last season. Now I’m not sure on this but I heard Stephen Heyer is getting the start at LT and Jon Janson is moving into guard? Redskin fans help me out. Regardless the Giants Defense has the advantage at home. Washingtons offense has had some trouble protecting the QB in preseason away from home. I think NY is motivated to prove they can play without Strahan and Osi. Much like the year before when Tiki left. Nobody gave them a shot, now they are the defending champs.
Giants OL vs. Washington Defense
The Redskins lacked a pass rush last year and they did nothing in the draft to help their situation. They decided to go with 3 receivers with their first 3 picks instead of getting a pass rusher. An injury Phillip Daniels spurred them into trading for Jason Taylor. It doesn’t look like Taylor will go on Thursday. It would be a bad move for the skins to play him IMO you want him 100% for the season. The Giants are returning their line from last year. Their LT Diehl is the only shaky one in the bunch giving up 12.5 sacks last season.
I would be very impressed with the Redskins if they go up there and beat the Giants. Now if I take this game I’m taking the Giants and hope that I don’t get burnt by the hook. But if I do make a play on this I will buy it to 3 or 2.5.
I’d like to take a look at some of these matchups and might pull some stats from this book I bought. They are performance metrics for each player who played last season so there are a lot of variables that will come into play. Still I would like to see where this can go. Regardless of that, ultimately it will be my opinion when I make a play on a game. So here are some numbers and my opinion on some of these games. Feel free to add anything.
I’m going to start with the first game of the week and then a few others that have caught my eye.
Washington +3.5 @ NY Giants
QB Jason Campbell vs. Eli Manning
Last season statistically Eli had a less than average season, but I would say the Giants QB situation is more than stable. His numbers were similar to his previous season. He had 23 TD, 20 INTS 6.4 YPA and a 3.6 SYPA (success % x YPA) He rated the 31st for QB totals for all throws short/med/long/bomb. These stats are being pulled from KC Joyner Scientific Football 08.
Jason Campell tied for 27th with 12TD 11 INTs 6.5 YPA and 3.9 SYPA. Campell ran Joe Gibbs horizontal offense last year and 60% of his throws last year were short routes, and 59% of his yardage game from these throws. That is where Jason had most of his success, as his success % drops after the short routes. This year he is adjusting to Jim Zorns offense, so time will tell how he adjusts to this.
The Giants have the advantage at QB here, they have a more stable situation around him. It will be up to Washington’s defense to force Eli into making some bad decisions.
RB Clinton Portis/Ladell Betts vs. Brandon Jacobs/Ahmad Bradshaw
Both of these teams have very talented backs. Clinton Portis ran for 3.9 YPA Jacobs had a little more success gaining 5.0 YPA. Both Washington and NY Giants Defenses will have to strap it up. Both will see plenty of rushing attempts.
WR
Santana Moss/Antwaan Randle El vs Aaron Ross/Corey Webster
Aaron Ross was a rookie last year and showed some good signs, but he only faced 42 passes last year so I would still say he is a green corner, we’ll see how an offseason treated him. He still gave up 8.5 YPA. Now I’m not positive on the Giants depth chart maybe some of you NY guys can help me. I don’t have any numbers on Webster, who I think is your number 2. He played ok last year, I will be keeping an eye on player performance for the future games obviously. Behind Webster you have either Dockery or Madison and they were rated in the bottom 3rd of the league.
Randel El quietly had his best season as a pro last season gaining 9.4 YPA, Santana was rated 49th with 7.8 YPA. Santana does good against the yellow/green corners(Red corners average less that 7 YPA, yellow 7-9 YPA, green 9+YPA) and the Giants do not have any red corners.
I do believe the redskins WR’s have an advantage over NY’s CB’s. And I’m sure we will see some of the rookie Devin Thomas and James Trash for sure. Washingtons sucesss in the passing game will depend on how they can handle NY Giants pass rush, more on that later.
Plaxico Burress/Amani Toomer/Steve Smith vs. Sean Springs/Fred Smoot/Carlos Rodgers
Toomer doesn’t do well when matched up against top level corners and Springs and Smoot were one of the highest rated CB tandems last season giving up 5.9 YPA. Plaxico played thru an injury the entire season and is one of the biggest mismatches in the NFL. The redskins will have their hands full with him, but it would not be out of the ordinary for them to contain Plax. I don’t have any numbers on Steve Smith and im sure he will also see some action. Rodgers looked good before he was injured last season, Redskin fans….how’s he looking this year? The redskins have a solid set of CB's and Laron Landry can make some plays. I believe their secondary has the advantage.
TE
Chris Cooley vs. Michael Johnson/James Butler
Cooley was the 11th rated TE last season, although nearly half of his attempts came when he was flexed out as a WR. I do think the giants LB’s and safeties will have trouble with him. Who knows where Kenny Philips will be used, I’m sure he will be more integrated with the defense when he gets more comfortable with it.
Kevin Boss vs. Laron Landry/Reed Doughty
Boss didn’t get much action last year, only 9 catches 118 yards, 2 of them TD’s. He did have that one big catch in the superbowl. He is not Jeremy Shockey, but he could be a good player. He is just inexperienced so I don’t have any performance metrics on him, we will see if he can endure the rigors as the full time tight end. Landry looks like he can be a special player
Advantage goes to Cooley.
Redskins OL vs. NY Defense
The redskins wont have to block 2 out of NY’s top 3 pass rushers from 1 year ago. Kiwanuka will move from his linebackers spot back to the dline joining Justin Tuck and Fred Robins. These guys are talented, and there is depth behind them. We'll see if they are up to the task.
The Redskins had a lot of injuries to their oline last season. Now I’m not sure on this but I heard Stephen Heyer is getting the start at LT and Jon Janson is moving into guard? Redskin fans help me out. Regardless the Giants Defense has the advantage at home. Washingtons offense has had some trouble protecting the QB in preseason away from home. I think NY is motivated to prove they can play without Strahan and Osi. Much like the year before when Tiki left. Nobody gave them a shot, now they are the defending champs.
Giants OL vs. Washington Defense
The Redskins lacked a pass rush last year and they did nothing in the draft to help their situation. They decided to go with 3 receivers with their first 3 picks instead of getting a pass rusher. An injury Phillip Daniels spurred them into trading for Jason Taylor. It doesn’t look like Taylor will go on Thursday. It would be a bad move for the skins to play him IMO you want him 100% for the season. The Giants are returning their line from last year. Their LT Diehl is the only shaky one in the bunch giving up 12.5 sacks last season.
I would be very impressed with the Redskins if they go up there and beat the Giants. Now if I take this game I’m taking the Giants and hope that I don’t get burnt by the hook. But if I do make a play on this I will buy it to 3 or 2.5.
