Week 1 prop plays/discussion

2daBank

2daBank

Voice of Reason
Sorry I was hoping to get this up this morning but couldn’t manage to make it to Illinios till after Theresa’s radiation treatment.

Keep in mind week 1 is super tricky w college fb props, I think it worth playing them cause there be several that just obliterate the number like the easiest bets ever. The problem is I can pretty much promise there will be at least a few where I’ll look like a total jackass cause the kid will hardly play or I’ll totally whiff on a game plan! Just remember it a long season no reason to go overboard right out the gates!!

Kaliakmanis ov 178.5 passing yards. … everything I have read, heard, dissected, it sounds like the gophers of the past few years who ran the ball more than every school other than the service academies are going to have a different look. Previous seasons they leaned on really good backs and a road grading oline. Now the strength of the team has shifted to the outside where they loaded with talented wrs and by all accounts they like this qb. Even when they were running the ball 66% the time Tanner Morgan still often put up this amount of yards, if we just get a 50/50 run pass split I think this kid goes over 200 easy.,

Simms over 34.5 rush yards.. I think Ruhle is gonna let simms run around and be the playmaker for this offense since huskers are kinda lacking wrs who gonna make big plays on their own. I expect huskers lean on the run game and will use lot of zone read so the threat of simms helps open up lanes for the backs but simms will get plenty of chances to keep and just scramble on pass plays. What I really like bout this is even if he doesn’t run a lot early if huskers down in the 4th he could pick up this number on one drive scrambling against a prevent type d. The biggest fear with ncaa qb rush totals are the sacks count against the rush total but gophers were 108th in sack rate last year so shouldn’t be a massive problem. Lot of ways to get this numbers imo.

Porter rooks ov 33.5 receiving yards. This could be one where I get screwed and the kid barely plays. I spent a ton of time trying to figure out who the Wolfpack primary slot wr gonna be cause this Uva offense and Armstrong who have come to ncst love to target the slot!! There a chance rooks chances are limited as there also a freshman they like (nobody even has a number for him which usually how this will go, you think the guy they set a number for be the guy but it isn’t always the case). I have no way to know which guy it gonna be but I feel like this a game they could let both get time, the number is small enough even if he splits the snaps I think this cashes. Just know he could wind up only playing 2 snaps while the other kid goes for 100+ yards and pisses me off!!


Cam Ross ov 24.5 receiving yards. If they don’t give this kid snaps it be a real dick move as he has battled back from a lot and was once on track to be a damn good wr. Ucon gonna be down and have to throw. I think this one comes in easy long as he on the field.
 
Always interested to see your take in props as I have never really gotten into them but enjoy reading your thread for solid insight.

Looking forward to seeing what you come up with for my Heels on Saturday as I will be there live, so plan to play on my boys in as many ways as possible (already on ML 128 and will be on TT over when it comes out), including tossing in a few props.

Thanks for taking the time to post this!
 
carolinablue said:
Always interested to see your take in props as I have never really gotten into them but enjoy reading your thread for solid insight.

Looking forward to seeing what you come up with for my Heels on Saturday as I will be there live, so plan to play on my boys in as many ways as possible (already on ML 128 and will be on TT over when it comes out), including tossing in a few props.

Thanks for taking the time to post this!
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Appreciate the kind words, your threads always must read for me as well.

I hate to say it man and maybe I’m way off but I’m worried for your heels. Every year I want to like them mostly cause Howell and now Maye but it’s the damndest thing. Just seems to me like ya’ll qb’s the only ones who play like winning is everything to them, you would think that inspire rest the team but I rarely see it. I think scary gonna be more prepared, more physical, and flat out tougher. Maybe Maye can overcome, especially if Rattler plays like he has most his career, if he plays like he did at end of last season I think scary wins.
 
I like your Ross bet. He’s had a few big games way back in his freshman year. Not asking for much too. Good luck to us.
 
Marsski said:
I like your Ross bet. He’s had a few big games way back in his freshman year. Not asking for much too. Good luck to us.
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I think him and rooks just a matter of them getting the snaps. I will dig thru as much crap I possibly can and sometimes these fuckers wake up and change their minds. The worst part on guys like Rooks they don’t even have a number up for the freshman who could end up getting the snaps. I learned this the hard way a couple years back, I assumed if they had a line up for the kid he was gonna get the snaps! Only took a few very frustrating games watching another kid they didn’t post a line for just destroying the number they posted for the kid on bench! That the worst, clearly the bet was correct far as that position easily exceeding the total. Then of course the kid you bet plays 2-3 snaps so the bet counts! Lol
 
2daBank said:
I think him and rooks just a matter of them getting the snaps. I will dig thru as much crap I possibly can and sometimes these fuckers wake up and change their minds. The worst part on guys like Rooks they don’t even have a number up for the freshman who could end up getting the snaps. I learned this the hard way a couple years back, I assumed if they had a line up for the kid he was gonna get the snaps! Only took a few very frustrating games watching another kid they didn’t post a line for just destroying the number they posted for the kid on bench! That the worst, clearly the bet was correct far as that position easily exceeding the total. Then of course the kid you bet plays 2-3 snaps so the bet counts! Lol
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Playing Ross in the slot mostly
 
Marsski said:
Playing Ross in the slot mostly
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Couldn’t believe he caught that pass on 2nd or 3rd play of game, looked like something that coulda been repeated plenty of times and never again. I know I saw him running open 5-6x where that lousy qb never even looked his way. Ucon might have a bit of problem going forward, I only half watched part of the game and I thought it was painfully obvious their qb has no ability to see more than half the field and it appeared he was incapable of looking:throwing to his right. The few times he tried it was awful! Surely if I could pick up on that teams actually dissecting film looking for weaknesses surely will see it!!
 
I prob should know this already but wr seems like the toughest position for me to figure out early in the year.

I know the Kaliakmanis play was way too close but I thought it was obviously the right side so glad we cashed. We had the minny game plan pegged, he threw the ball 44x compared to 24 rush attempts. He was just incredibly inefficient!! Lol
 
I’d like the Hawaii kid over passing yards but afraid wind gonna play a factor, only thing that makes sense to me why the total dropping the way it is.
 
I don’t see a lot for tonight. As mentioned the threat of wind and the way the total dropping in Hawaii will prob keep me off Schrager. I thought Gtech was gonna roll with the kid who played some qb for them at end of last season, liked his ability to push the ball down the field. Sounds like texas am transfer King won the job tho, no clue wtf to expect from him? He was a 4 star duel threat recruit, it could be playing in that terrible jimbo offense made him look worse than he really is! I really like the Tech wr’s, I think they can get deep on ville, tech returns 4 guys on the oline so they should be able to give king time. Can he find the open guys and make the throws? I think I’d feel more comfy playing tech +7.5 than I would playing King props.
 
They have Tyler van dyke passing yards set at 271.5, im far from a expert on the MAC (calling @Marsski) but I do believe Miami Ohio calling card is defense! I don’t trust canes cause I think their coach is garbage, he can recruit but I’ve never seen any evidence he can actually coach!!

They brought in houston OC so you would think there nowhere to go but up for a offense that didn’t even average 20 ppg last year (freaking embarrassing!). Houston threw the ball all over the yard ranking 114th in the country in rushing attempts while averaging 314 passing yards per game. I think Van dyke is more talented than cougars qb tune was. He got sacked a bunch last year but you would think canes should have a strong oline since that is the HC calling card! You would expect canes oline be mammoth compared to mia Ohio dline who despite having a strong d didn’t generate a lot of pressure on opposing qbs., ultimately I just can’t roll with over a 271.5 total with a new system against what is generally a solid d with a pretty good secondary even if you would expect they are gonna be severely out matched size and athletically here. I’d expect Van Dyke to put up plenty of 300+ passing days in this offense but just don’t have the faith right out the gates, seeing is believing and it’s hard to erase the stink of last year out of my mind!

What I do find a little more appealing is Ohio qb Gabbert over 179.5 passing yards. Canes also replacing their DC (this what tends to happen when you hire a bad HC!), last season canes allowed 8.3 yards per pass attempt which ranked 117th nationally, not good! Once again you would expect they have far to much talent for that kind of performance and maybe the new DC will fix it, but will he have it all cleaned up in week 1? Probably not. If memory serves me right a big reason for that redic ypp is canes allowed a ton of big plays (another sign of a poorly coached team, they seem to be everywhere when talking bout a Cristobal team!). Gabbert got hurt early last season but in 2021 he averaged 8.9 yards per attempt! He went over this number in 8 of 10 games including throwing for 201 at beginning the year at Minnesota, a team I think we all believe plays stingier d than the canes and was also adept at controlling the clock that season. Gabbert finished the 2021 season with a qb rating above 150. Basically this kid can play! It stands to reason despite all the negative things im saying about the canes they will most likely have a lead in this game and Ohio will need Gabbert to throw, I don’t think they are gonna have much success running the ball on the canes. 180 yards for Gabbert feels very attainable to me, I also lean to taking the points in this game but this being the prop thread as of now Gabbert ov 179.5 is about the best one I’ve seen for tonight thus far.
 
So between my thoughts already and hearing some talk this morning about expecting Canes to not only go spread but speed the offense up which makes sense w the former houston oc. That was enough for me to pull the trigger on their opponents passing prop! Lol

Gabbert ov 179.5 passing yards

My thinking was the only way this doesn’t hit would be if we got a game similar to ncst/ucon, kinda a shitfest that kept the dog close all night. I don’t think Ohio will find much success on the ground and imo Gabbert gives them their best chance to compete. We see how canes offense does In the new system, I think Van dyke is vastly more talented than Tune at houston, just a matter of the team picking up the offense. If canes do light up the scoreboard I can’t imagine Gabbert wouidnt be able to throw for 200 given the opportunity to try and keep up. If canes do struggle I don’t think it be a very fast moving clock and I’d still expect at some point Ohio to be down in 2nd half and passing. As I mentioned above when Gabbert was healthy in ‘21 he went over this number in 8 of 10 including 200 against a very good gophers d who’s offense controlled the clock and sped up the game, that shouldn’t happen in canes new look offense so Gabbert should have more than enough opportunity against a d who ranked 117th in ysrfs per pass attempt against last season.
 
chandler morris under 57.5 rush yards is pretty strong i think. has only gone over once in his career, he will hit that number in some games this year but don't foresee the volume being there in a potential blowout spot
 
survive&advance said:
chandler morris under 57.5 rush yards is pretty strong i think. has only gone over once in his career, he will hit that number in some games this year but don't foresee the volume being there in a potential blowout spot
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It’s so weird cause my whole life I been way more a under player with totals, I still prefer betting unders on totals. Since day 1 with props tho I have bet almost exclusively overs in every sport too. Maybe it the little square part of me that been suppressed as I played one under after another for 30 years! Lol. I know there probably has to be value on some prop unders but anytime I’ve actually played one it hasn’t worked out well, like the exact opposite of totals for me! I guess the reason it has worked for me cause there enough props to choose from I can be selective w the overs I play, I typically just pass when I don’t like the number for a over.

All that said I don’t disagree with you. I really have no clue what it gonna look like with Morris? I remember it didn’t look great when he started in Colorado last year! Only concern would be I’d obviously like a qb rushing under more if I thought he was gonna get sacked some, no clue if buffs can get after the qb? What does make it sound appealing to me is it almost feels bat shit crazy to me Morris number is 57.5 when yesterday simms was 35 and Armstrong was 25ish!! That makes no sense to me why this dude double the total of guys w track records of being good runners!
 
Well hAwaii qb schregar flat out smashed his number again. I only had it to cap a small risk parlay I started Thursday, the talk of wind and the total inexplicably dropping from low 60s all the way down under 56 made me nervous enough not to add him as a straight play. I was ok w beer money risk paying out about what my typical play on one I really like would be. Wasn’t willing to actually risk that amount only cause I let the movement on total combined w the talk of wind possibly being a problem (couldn’t figure out why else it would come down over a td all way under 56 which to me is a big deal number. I generally don’t let line moves influence me much but when it coincided with talk of weather being a potential issue it suckered me into making way less than I should have on him!!

What stood out most to me far as the game is stanford brought constant pressure that got into Hawaii backfield and made Schrager uncomfortable most the night. There a couple ways to look at that, 1 would be if trees defense who by all accounts isn’t gonna be very good were. able to get constant pressure thar could be a real problem going forward. The good would be despite being under a bunch of pressure and forced off his spot play after play he was still able to move around and keep his eyes downfield making plays. 2nd week in a row he cleared his total by almost 100 yards,


Far as Gabbert play the Ohio Coaching staff never gave him a chance. That was the most pathetic game thus far on the season. Ohio went down there to collect a check plain and simple. They basically took a knee from the 1st play of the game. The only time they let Gabbert have a chance was 2 min before half and he took them right down the field for the only fg. Other than that they just ran twice for bout a yard then gave him the ball on 3rd and 10. 4 min left they pull him and they let the backup throw the ball more than Gabbert did.,, Hate when a play loses cause I get cheated by a coaching staff who had no interest in trying. Gabbert could have easily exceeded that number if they gave him the opportunity. All that game did was make me feel justified for normally ignoring the MAC.
 
I like Sanders passing yards over for Colorado

He is going to throw it a lot and play fast on offense
 
sleepy said:
I like Sanders passing yards over for Colorado

He is going to throw it a lot and play fast on offense
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They are def gonna play fast, I just dunno if their oline can hold up? There so many unknowns in this game for me I keep looking but keep telling myself I should just stay away. Buffs 1st half kinda interest me, I really don’t think tcu blows them out but besides the fact everyone just been thrown together they are super thin and it gonna be 100 degrees!I I don’t disagree with you I just keep telling myself leave this game alone, lol. His over 1.5 td passes at +150ish intrigues me also.
 
Luke lachey ov 36.5 rec yards

It a new world in iowa (allegedly), I gotta believe they have to put the offense to the test asp. The one guy I trust if they gonna throw more is this dude! He actually smashed this number a few games at end of last year in the old iowa do nothing barely throw offense. If anything goes as the are hoping lachey will be crushing this number and we be seeing him above 50 very soon imo.
 
I took Jaydn Ott O75.5 yrds rushing.

North Texas has moved to a 3-3-5 defense. Cal would be smart to run.
The negative would be Jake Spivital is the Cal OC.
 
2daBank said:
Luke lachey ov 36.5 rec yards

It a new world in iowa (allegedly), I gotta believe they have to put the offense to the test asp. The one guy I trust if they gonna throw more is this dude! He actually smashed this number a few games at end of last year in the old iowa do nothing barely throw offense. If anything goes as the are hoping lachey will be crushing this number and we be seeing him above 50 very soon imo.
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Lachey to score a td +155 I think solid also
 
This one is kinda interesting but I think relatively strong.

Garrett greene ov 18.5 rush yards. This game is so goofy, both these coaches been playing some kinda stupid ass game of “show me yours before u show you mine” when it comes to naming their starting qbs! Shit is retarded and if college FB had a legitimate structure with leaders in place instead of the incompetent ncaa pretending they run things these guys would get fined for this shit!! You can’t make billions of dollars that are only being generated because of tv money that driven by gambling and do this kind of nonsense! Anyways enough of the rant!

Im like 85% sure greene is gonna be WVU starting qb. When he has gotten on the field one thing is very clear, he will pick up yards with his legs! Psu defense ie gonna be fantastic without a doubt, if they woulda made this a number anywhere close to what it should be I wouldn’t be playing it as not only will psu have a fantastic run d but there will be the problem or the dreaded sack, ncaa qb rush props biggest enemy!! Despite those concerns this number is redic low! Wvu oline should be a pretty strong unit, greene will be such a big part of the run game by design and scrambling a few sacks not gonna threaten this number. Even if wvu woke up today and decided to start the other qb it’s ok. One of 2 things will then happen, either greene won’t get on the field and the bet will be refunded, or they have a package for him and he plays some series, if that the case you know the reason he be on the field for plays designed to get him rush yards, maybe a play action shot or trick play that most likely will only carry a small risk of a sack. Basically he could only play a few series and I’d be confident he go over this number!!

Sorry it took till now to post, I see it has went up to 20.5 now. I don’t think it will matter
 
Man, if we don’t cash Lachey I’ll be pissed. 5 for 27 yards but freaking another te All has taken 3 for 15! Still a whole qrtr, it be great if Utah st could accidentally score and prevent iowa from just trying to milk clock. Pretty sure I heard the OC has incentives for every gane he hits 25 points! Averages 25 points! So you would think he wouldn’t stop trying to score. So far the new look iowa offense doesn’t look a whole hell a lot better than the old shit offense! Lol
 
sleepy said:
I like Sanders passing yards over for Colorado

He is going to throw it a lot and play fast on offense
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Great one man. So pissed I stayed off this game. I liked everything buffs but acted like a wuss. Sanders td passes cashed to. Easy +150 I last up! Hope somebody took my advice on thar! Lol
 
2daBank said:
Man, if we don’t cash Lachey I’ll be pissed. 5 for 27 yards but freaking another te All has taken 3 for 15! Still a whole qrtr, it be great if Utah st could accidentally score and prevent iowa from just trying to milk clock. Pretty sure I heard the OC has incentives for every gane he hits 25 points! Averages 25 points! So you would think he wouldn’t stop trying to score. So far the new look iowa offense doesn’t look a whole hell a lot better than the old shit offense! Lol
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There you go.
 
Jfc. It baffling to me that needsd replay, and the replay took minutes! anyways got the cash, think it was def a good play, it be awesome they capped it w a td to him as I have a little beer money parlay w big payout if I get all my td scorers right! Lol
 
He Hate Me said:
Nice call on Ott.
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thanks, I was only posting props just I just didn’t have time to write up some my other plays yesterday and I’m not a fan of posting plays without some sort of writeup. I don’t think anyone should blindly tail me or anyone for that matter. The reason this the only place I post or read anymore cause we have lot of posters I respect who take the time to give incite into their thought process, in return I try to post my thoughts in hopes ppl enjoy reading and maybe every once in awhile get something from them they maybe hadn’t thought of or just another way of looking at!!


I played the over in unt/cal also, everything I read gave me the impression Cal offense was gonna be way different! Combine that with north texas having a decent offense that plays quick and a awful d i felt like they might be way off with that 53.5 number and some the props, I was pissed they only had props for cal players, I def woulda played unt qb in some fashion. Hit the over before half, I’ll be super curious where they put the Cal/auburn total next week!! Im sure it be high but hoping we get a few more weeks where they underestimate the differences in Cal offensive philosophy!!


Honestly I thought Thorne was a really good play and still do!! I can’t freaking believe every time Auburn got into the red zone they took him out and let the backup Qb run the fuckinv ball i!! After that shit started I was pissed but was pretty confident Thorne would hit at least one long td, came out after halftime and sure enough he hit the 40 yard td! Then he didn’t play another snap! Such a bummer. There was a series in the 1st half he drove them down to the red zone (like he did basically every series in 1st half!) where he got 2 pass plays in a row called, 1st one he had the tight wide open and he either made a awful throw or he expected the te to look over his other shoulder, either way he was way too open to miss that one!! Next play they threw a seem route to endzone and once again he missed the throw, it wasn’t as wide open but a good throw and it was a td!! Think there was another drive where he got to take a shot into endzone before they brought the running qb in. So even with auburn red zone package that put Thorne on bench I still had at least 3-4 throws into the endzone in 1st half, just connect on one of those and bet cashes despite the fact he played way fewer snaps than I anticipated! One the pitfalls of week 1, we get some numbers like wvu qb Greene rush total. Simms rush total the other day, numbers that are so soft we won’t get easier bets all year!! Unfortunately there will also be a few where no matter how much I’ve studied the team they come out w a completely different game plan or they wake up and decide a guy they been raving about all off season only gonna play 2 snaps!!!! Then you watch a different player playing same position and he smashes the number of the guy you bet!! Man that frustrating!!
 
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