Week 1 Plays

raems

Pretty much a regular
Carolina 1h -.5 +130 risking 1 to win 1.3

Jackson caused a ton of headaches in the Super Bowl, that interior pressure combined with Miller was too much to handle in that game. He's gone now, and so is the guy who entered preseason as his backup. Trevathan the kind of run thumper that is helpful against Carolina, and he's gone while Stewart is healthy unlike when he got injured early in the SB causing them to abandon the run too early. I expect Carolina to focus a lot more on the run, and shading their pass pro more towards the right side to give Remmers a little more help against Von. J Stewart over props worth a look, but juiced player props are not my jam personally.

On the other side, a 7th round pick starting his first game as a placeholder QB until the rookie is ready, combined with 4 new Oline starters against a hungry front 7 is a bad combo for Denver. Yes, Carolina's rookie CB's will be a problem area at some point, but I don't expect Kubiak to trust Semien enough to call long-developing plays that would gain a ton of yards. Just don't expect Denver to be capable of sustaining methodical drives against this defense early.

Not playing full game because 88 degrees in the altitude in the first game of the season can get weird for the road team over the course of 60 minutes.

Will post other plays with rationale later, but already know I'm on the Jets, Seattle Fins over, Philly Cleveland Over, and AZ. Good luck tonight and this season, guys!
 
1-0, +1.3. Think conditioning wound up playing a major factor for the road team in the second half.

Jets ML risking 1 to win 1.15

Without Eifert and the receiving corps a work in progress regardless of what they want to tell you about a 2nd round rookie, the Bengals offense will be solid but unspectacular early. Hue leaving also drops the creativity down a notch. Dalton is very good and I'm generally high on him, just think Cincy is overpriced in this game.

Revis apparently played with a bad wrist injury last year which hindered his ability to be physical at the line, which is a huge part of his game. I expect a great year out of him, even better than last year. If the Jets self scout adequately, they won't leave him on an island with Green. I'd expect Revis to be manned up against whoever the Y receiver is on the other side, with safety help shaded towards Green all game long. Fitz nothing special and the interior of that Oline against Geno Atkins scares me, but I think I'm getting 4 free points on this price.

Philly Cleveland Over 41 risking 1.1 to win 1

Cleveland has a lot of offensive weapons and a very creative mind in Hue - lack of tape along with the playmakers they have suggests they can put up some points.

On the other side of the ball, Cleveland's defensive cupboard is pretty damn bare. That combined with a solid Eagles Oline leads me to believe Philly is good for 20+ as well. Think both teams crack 20.

Seattle Fins Over 44 riskng 2.2 to win 2

Seattle offense gonna light it up against a pretty talentless Fins CB corps, I think Wilson will be in the running for MVP all year. Think the Fins Dline situation allows Seattle to just sell out on Suh - old Cameron Wake off an Achilles and quitter Mario Williams just don't do it for me as of now and the depth isn't particularly tremendous.

On the other end, Adam Gase is a damn wizard. I believe Miami's offense will be able to score some points here, with a good amount of varying weapons and a very talented Oline. Playing an over against the Seattle defense is scary, but I think the situation warrants it.

Cards - 6 risking 1.1 to win 1

I understand the risk going against Bellichick as a large dog, but I'm obligated to take the best team in the league at home against a QB starting his first game in prime time.

GL guys!
 
Good luck for the most part, maybe not all of it though! :roadrage::roadrage::roadrage::roadrage::roadrage:
 
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