College Football Week 1 Best Bets: Don't Be Surprised By Florida's Defense
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Saturday, August 30, 2024 at noon ET at Milan Puskar Stadium
Assessing Drew Allar Properly
When you read assessments of Penn State quarterback Drew Allar, you will find a lot of negativity.
This negativity exists because Allar is already expected to perform well against bad defenses. Fans assessing Allar are absorbed by their desire to see him lead Penn State past the likes of
Ohio State and Michigan. Their frustration colors their assessment of him.
Allar deserves negative feedback in response to his efforts against the Buckeyes and Wolverines, but West Virginia is clearly not on the same level as those two teams, so this negativity is irrelevant to an estimation of how Allar will perform this week.
Last year, whereas Ohio State and Michigan ranked top-two in pass defense, West Virginia ranked 78th in pass defense.
Allar faced several teams who were remotely of the same caliber and thrived against them.
For example, Maryland ranked 43rd in pass defense. Against this group, Allar threw for four touchdowns and zero interceptions while completing over 70 percent of his passes.
West Virginia's Pass Defense This Year
West Virginia's pass defense will be even worse than it was last year, because the talent level of its secondary will regress.
Its All-American cornerback, Beanie Bishop, now plays for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Safety Marcis Floyd is also gone.
These two players accounted for over half of the team's pass breakups.
The pass rush, which ranked toward the bottom in pass rush win rate, also misses meaningful starting production.
While the level of experienced and proven returning talent is higher along West Virginia's defensive line than in its secondary, which is relying on a bunch of transfers, both elements of West
Virginia's pass defense – its pass rush and its secondary – remain very much a work in progress.
This is just the type of group that Allar will thrive against.
Are There Concerns?
You might have read pessimistic reports about Penn State's wide receiver and offensive line groups.
The pessimism here is either misplaced or overstated.
While Penn State lost some wide receivers to the transfer portal, those transfers were disappointing members of what was a disappointing group.
While, again, we don't need this group to be elite against West Virginia's secondary, added optimism is justified.
Trey Wallace (listed officially as Harrison Wallace) and Liam Clifford reportedly had great camps. Wallace was supposed to have a breakout year last year but was disrupted by injuries.
He has finally been healthy. Kaden Saunders, a top-100 prospect coming out of high school, is another breakout candidate.
Julian Fleming is a once very highly recruited transfer from Ohio State, has the tools to be Allar's go-to weapon in the end zone. Outside of the end zone, in addition to his size and contested catch potential, he also boasts tremendous 40-yard-dash speed.
West Virginia's Overrated Offense
People are hyping up West Virginia's offense because of what it did in the latter portion of the year.
While the Mountaineers did score a lot more points, except when they mustered 20 points against Oklahoma, they did so against objectively bad, low-ranking defenses.
There's no basis for believing that West Virginia's offense improved to the point where it can be relied upon any more extensively than last year to do well against strong defenses. Against this Penn State team, West Virginia scored 15 points in the season opener.
The Key Is The Run Game
Yes, the significance of losses along the offensive line are generally overstated because the backups often already have starting experience – this applies to both West Virginia and Penn State this year.
So, yes, with its top running backs returning West Virginia will want to rely on its run game again. Stats suggest that the Mountaineers had one of the best rush attacks last year, although this statistic is inflated by their participation in a conference that values having extra defensive backs on the field to counter spread passing attacks.
Penn State is just the team to stop West Virginia's run-centered offense.
The Nittany Lions owned the nation's top run defense last year. This year, they reload with talent alongside the front seven.
They moved their top defensive player to defensive end while they return veteran run stuffers in the middle. At linebacker, Kobe King, Dominic DeLuca, and physically maturing youngster Tony Rojas all grade as excellent run defenders and tacklers.
Takeaway
While West Virginia's offense looks good when you consider its games against poor Big 12 defenses, I am seeing a very similar team that will remain outmatched by a high-quality defense, such as one that Penn State possesses with its restocked front seven.
On offense, Drew Allar will thrive with what should be a stronger wide receiver unit – although West Virginia's regressed secondary makes it quite fine if his wide receiver unit hasn't improved at all –against another low-quality defense.
Penn State loses games because its offense lacks enough quality against top-caliber defenses. But when it wins games, then it shows the offensive prowess to match its consistently dominant defense. And so you get a lot of blowout wins.
Consider, in this vein, the following trend: 19 of Penn State's last 20 wins have come by nine or more points.
Penn State will beat West Virginia on Saturday, and it will do so by double digits.
Best Bet: Penn State -8 at -110 with BetOnline
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Saturday, August 31, 2024 at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville
Brent Pry on the Road
Virginia Tech's head coach has been in Blacksburg for two years.
Every year, his Hokies have struggled massively on the road, in particular taking most of the season to figure out how to win away from home.
Two years ago, the Hokies lost five of their six road games. They even lost their season-opener at Old Dominion. Their one road win came in their regular season finale where they beat Liberty by a point.
Last year, the Hokies lost their first four road games before winning at Boston College and, as always, at Virginia.
Among those four road losses was a 19-point loss at Rutgers.
Location Matters
Previews of Virginia Tech this season will hype up Kyron Drones and the returners at running back and wide receiver.
But Drones' passer rating was 42.1 points lower on the road than at home.
Even when the Hokies ran well at Marshall, for example, Drones' passing still held them back. His struggles on the road were even apparent in his limited time at Baylor. He is a major impetus for Virginia Tech's road woes.
Vanderbilt's Pass Defense
Virginia Tech's pass protection unit ranked somewhat above average last year, but it was substantially worse on the road, where it has to contend with crowd noise.
Communication becomes more difficult for offensive linemen on the road.
At Louisville, for example, trying to pick up blitzes was a major problem.
As also in that Marshall game, Drones can struggle to deal with pressure, and he'll face plenty of it from Vanderbilt.
The Commodores boosted their pass rush with the additions of Zaylin Wood from Middle Tennessee State and Khordae Sydnor from Purdue. Both combined for 11 sacks in 2022.
Takeaway
The Hokies have underperformed, relative to the spread, tremendously in their two road openers under their current head coach.
Specifically, Kyron Drones will hold back the offense, as he embodies the Hokies' road woes. The defense will remain prone to giving up back-breaking big runs, which plagued them last year.
Vanderbilt will, overall, be better this year because its head coach is becoming the team's defensive coordinator. Clark Lea was Notre Dame's defensive coordinator, where he helped establish his strong reputation for defense.
A low-scoring output from the Hokies and some big plays especially on the ground from Vanderbilt: this is the recipe for an easy Commodores cover.
Best Bet: Vanderbilt +13.5 at -105 with BetOnline
Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, August 31, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville
A Tale of Two Floridas
Florida is commonly considered to be a terrible defense.
Its stats last year were certainly awful overall.
However, we have to recognize the tendency of Florida under its current head coach to struggle after the bye week.
This is the time period in which the Gators regularly gave up over 30 points per game last year.
Before the bye week, though, Florida's defense thrived especially at home, where it held all four of its opponents to 16 points or fewer.
Tennessee, which averaged over 30 points per game, scored 16 in Gainesville.
A Lot of New Personnel
It is also unfair to emphasize what Florida's defense did last year because a lot of its personnel will be different.
Generally speaking, the players who, as metrics show, made a positive impact on defense are returning, while those who did not are not returning.
Shemar James is not new, but his healthiness is. Florida regressed when he went down last year, so the linebacker's return is crucial.
He'll be complemented by key transfer addition Pup Howard, who achieved a great run defense grade at South Carolina last season.
These linebackers will be supported by an improved defensive line featuring the addition of the Ivy League's Defensive Player of the Year Joey Slackman.
Well-reputed run stuffer Cam Jackson is one valuable returner on the defensive line.
In the secondary, Asa Turner is going to make an instant impact. The transfer from Washington was ranked by PFF as a very good run-defending safety last year.
Cam Ward
Miami's quarterback tends to struggle on the road.
Last year on the road, he got to face some of the nation's worst pass defenses, and yet his road passer rating was still 27.1 points worse than it was at home.
This trend of performing worse on the road was also apparent two seasons ago, so it's a consistent problem for him.
While Florida's pass defense certainly wasn't great last year, it added a proven cornerbacks coach and substantial talent and experience in the secondary.
Florida's improved pass defense will prolong Ward's road woes.
Florida's Pass Protection Outlook
Florida was one of the nation's worst teams last year at avoiding sacks.
Certainly a few new players won't be able to overcome inevitable chemistry issues and make a difference right away.
The difference will also have to be a substantial one to obviate the tremendous problems that Miami's pass rush can cause.
Miami has two returners who produced 40+ pressures last year.
These two players, Rueben Bain and Tyler Baron, also combined for 13.5 sacks.
They certainly aren't Miami's only pass-rushing weapons, but they'll be two reasons why Florida struggles to move the ball downfield.
With Florida also missing star running back Trevor Etienne and with Miami boasting the continued talent and improved depth that will help it rank top-15 again in run defense, the Gators' offense will be severely limited.
Takeaway
Neither team's pass attack will succeed. Cam Ward will struggle again on the road, and Miami's pass rush will be too much for Florida's pass attack to handle.
With diminished star power at running back for Florida and with the Gators' improved run defense, neither team's run game will come close to approaching the total.
Best Bet: Under 54 at -110 with BetOnline
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Saturday, August 30, 2024 at noon ET at Milan Puskar Stadium
Assessing Drew Allar Properly
When you read assessments of Penn State quarterback Drew Allar, you will find a lot of negativity.
This negativity exists because Allar is already expected to perform well against bad defenses. Fans assessing Allar are absorbed by their desire to see him lead Penn State past the likes of
Ohio State and Michigan. Their frustration colors their assessment of him.
Allar deserves negative feedback in response to his efforts against the Buckeyes and Wolverines, but West Virginia is clearly not on the same level as those two teams, so this negativity is irrelevant to an estimation of how Allar will perform this week.
Last year, whereas Ohio State and Michigan ranked top-two in pass defense, West Virginia ranked 78th in pass defense.
Allar faced several teams who were remotely of the same caliber and thrived against them.
For example, Maryland ranked 43rd in pass defense. Against this group, Allar threw for four touchdowns and zero interceptions while completing over 70 percent of his passes.
West Virginia's Pass Defense This Year
West Virginia's pass defense will be even worse than it was last year, because the talent level of its secondary will regress.
Its All-American cornerback, Beanie Bishop, now plays for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Safety Marcis Floyd is also gone.
These two players accounted for over half of the team's pass breakups.
The pass rush, which ranked toward the bottom in pass rush win rate, also misses meaningful starting production.
While the level of experienced and proven returning talent is higher along West Virginia's defensive line than in its secondary, which is relying on a bunch of transfers, both elements of West
Virginia's pass defense – its pass rush and its secondary – remain very much a work in progress.
This is just the type of group that Allar will thrive against.
Are There Concerns?
You might have read pessimistic reports about Penn State's wide receiver and offensive line groups.
The pessimism here is either misplaced or overstated.
While Penn State lost some wide receivers to the transfer portal, those transfers were disappointing members of what was a disappointing group.
While, again, we don't need this group to be elite against West Virginia's secondary, added optimism is justified.
Trey Wallace (listed officially as Harrison Wallace) and Liam Clifford reportedly had great camps. Wallace was supposed to have a breakout year last year but was disrupted by injuries.
He has finally been healthy. Kaden Saunders, a top-100 prospect coming out of high school, is another breakout candidate.
Julian Fleming is a once very highly recruited transfer from Ohio State, has the tools to be Allar's go-to weapon in the end zone. Outside of the end zone, in addition to his size and contested catch potential, he also boasts tremendous 40-yard-dash speed.
West Virginia's Overrated Offense
People are hyping up West Virginia's offense because of what it did in the latter portion of the year.
While the Mountaineers did score a lot more points, except when they mustered 20 points against Oklahoma, they did so against objectively bad, low-ranking defenses.
There's no basis for believing that West Virginia's offense improved to the point where it can be relied upon any more extensively than last year to do well against strong defenses. Against this Penn State team, West Virginia scored 15 points in the season opener.
The Key Is The Run Game
Yes, the significance of losses along the offensive line are generally overstated because the backups often already have starting experience – this applies to both West Virginia and Penn State this year.
So, yes, with its top running backs returning West Virginia will want to rely on its run game again. Stats suggest that the Mountaineers had one of the best rush attacks last year, although this statistic is inflated by their participation in a conference that values having extra defensive backs on the field to counter spread passing attacks.
Penn State is just the team to stop West Virginia's run-centered offense.
The Nittany Lions owned the nation's top run defense last year. This year, they reload with talent alongside the front seven.
They moved their top defensive player to defensive end while they return veteran run stuffers in the middle. At linebacker, Kobe King, Dominic DeLuca, and physically maturing youngster Tony Rojas all grade as excellent run defenders and tacklers.
Takeaway
While West Virginia's offense looks good when you consider its games against poor Big 12 defenses, I am seeing a very similar team that will remain outmatched by a high-quality defense, such as one that Penn State possesses with its restocked front seven.
On offense, Drew Allar will thrive with what should be a stronger wide receiver unit – although West Virginia's regressed secondary makes it quite fine if his wide receiver unit hasn't improved at all –against another low-quality defense.
Penn State loses games because its offense lacks enough quality against top-caliber defenses. But when it wins games, then it shows the offensive prowess to match its consistently dominant defense. And so you get a lot of blowout wins.
Consider, in this vein, the following trend: 19 of Penn State's last 20 wins have come by nine or more points.
Penn State will beat West Virginia on Saturday, and it will do so by double digits.
Best Bet: Penn State -8 at -110 with BetOnline
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Saturday, August 31, 2024 at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville
Brent Pry on the Road
Virginia Tech's head coach has been in Blacksburg for two years.
Every year, his Hokies have struggled massively on the road, in particular taking most of the season to figure out how to win away from home.
Two years ago, the Hokies lost five of their six road games. They even lost their season-opener at Old Dominion. Their one road win came in their regular season finale where they beat Liberty by a point.
Last year, the Hokies lost their first four road games before winning at Boston College and, as always, at Virginia.
Among those four road losses was a 19-point loss at Rutgers.
Location Matters
Previews of Virginia Tech this season will hype up Kyron Drones and the returners at running back and wide receiver.
But Drones' passer rating was 42.1 points lower on the road than at home.
Even when the Hokies ran well at Marshall, for example, Drones' passing still held them back. His struggles on the road were even apparent in his limited time at Baylor. He is a major impetus for Virginia Tech's road woes.
Vanderbilt's Pass Defense
Virginia Tech's pass protection unit ranked somewhat above average last year, but it was substantially worse on the road, where it has to contend with crowd noise.
Communication becomes more difficult for offensive linemen on the road.
At Louisville, for example, trying to pick up blitzes was a major problem.
As also in that Marshall game, Drones can struggle to deal with pressure, and he'll face plenty of it from Vanderbilt.
The Commodores boosted their pass rush with the additions of Zaylin Wood from Middle Tennessee State and Khordae Sydnor from Purdue. Both combined for 11 sacks in 2022.
Takeaway
The Hokies have underperformed, relative to the spread, tremendously in their two road openers under their current head coach.
Specifically, Kyron Drones will hold back the offense, as he embodies the Hokies' road woes. The defense will remain prone to giving up back-breaking big runs, which plagued them last year.
Vanderbilt will, overall, be better this year because its head coach is becoming the team's defensive coordinator. Clark Lea was Notre Dame's defensive coordinator, where he helped establish his strong reputation for defense.
A low-scoring output from the Hokies and some big plays especially on the ground from Vanderbilt: this is the recipe for an easy Commodores cover.
Best Bet: Vanderbilt +13.5 at -105 with BetOnline
Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, August 31, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville
A Tale of Two Floridas
Florida is commonly considered to be a terrible defense.
Its stats last year were certainly awful overall.
However, we have to recognize the tendency of Florida under its current head coach to struggle after the bye week.
This is the time period in which the Gators regularly gave up over 30 points per game last year.
Before the bye week, though, Florida's defense thrived especially at home, where it held all four of its opponents to 16 points or fewer.
Tennessee, which averaged over 30 points per game, scored 16 in Gainesville.
A Lot of New Personnel
It is also unfair to emphasize what Florida's defense did last year because a lot of its personnel will be different.
Generally speaking, the players who, as metrics show, made a positive impact on defense are returning, while those who did not are not returning.
Shemar James is not new, but his healthiness is. Florida regressed when he went down last year, so the linebacker's return is crucial.
He'll be complemented by key transfer addition Pup Howard, who achieved a great run defense grade at South Carolina last season.
These linebackers will be supported by an improved defensive line featuring the addition of the Ivy League's Defensive Player of the Year Joey Slackman.
Well-reputed run stuffer Cam Jackson is one valuable returner on the defensive line.
In the secondary, Asa Turner is going to make an instant impact. The transfer from Washington was ranked by PFF as a very good run-defending safety last year.
Cam Ward
Miami's quarterback tends to struggle on the road.
Last year on the road, he got to face some of the nation's worst pass defenses, and yet his road passer rating was still 27.1 points worse than it was at home.
This trend of performing worse on the road was also apparent two seasons ago, so it's a consistent problem for him.
While Florida's pass defense certainly wasn't great last year, it added a proven cornerbacks coach and substantial talent and experience in the secondary.
Florida's improved pass defense will prolong Ward's road woes.
Florida's Pass Protection Outlook
Florida was one of the nation's worst teams last year at avoiding sacks.
Certainly a few new players won't be able to overcome inevitable chemistry issues and make a difference right away.
The difference will also have to be a substantial one to obviate the tremendous problems that Miami's pass rush can cause.
Miami has two returners who produced 40+ pressures last year.
These two players, Rueben Bain and Tyler Baron, also combined for 13.5 sacks.
They certainly aren't Miami's only pass-rushing weapons, but they'll be two reasons why Florida struggles to move the ball downfield.
With Florida also missing star running back Trevor Etienne and with Miami boasting the continued talent and improved depth that will help it rank top-15 again in run defense, the Gators' offense will be severely limited.
Takeaway
Neither team's pass attack will succeed. Cam Ward will struggle again on the road, and Miami's pass rush will be too much for Florida's pass attack to handle.
With diminished star power at running back for Florida and with the Gators' improved run defense, neither team's run game will come close to approaching the total.
Best Bet: Under 54 at -110 with BetOnline
BOL to Vandy backers the rest of the way!
