Week 1 NFL Picks

[TroyStacks]

Will be posting early thoughts on week 1 here. I think this year there will be the most parity we've seen probably ever, with lots of good teams. Dogs will be barking I feel.

PLAYS

Cincinnati +3

Tennessee +7

Tampa -2.5 (-125)

New Orleans -3

Kansas City -3

Cleveland pk

Detroit -3 (-135)

Carolina +4 (-120)

Giants +4 (-120)

Houston -3

4-3-1

 

[eggman]

Hate to say it but Bengals getting 3.5 vs bears in their first "real" game in new system is probably a great bet.

 

[D-Woww]

Love, like, love. TB scares me tho. Looks like a trap line. All logic says they win

 

[wiseplayer]

My thoughts are how can we have real thoughts on week 1 already? It just isn't possible.

 

[D-Woww]

My thoughts are how can we have real thoughts on week 1 already? It just isn't possible.

disagree. u can get some good lines now if you really think a team is better or worse than public perception. other than the risk of injury, which is present but im not gonna lose sleep over it, why is it impossible? in fact, sometimes watching a team play 4 meaningless preseason games can skew your opinion of them incorrectly

 

[VANGIO]

I have Clev in my radar.

 

[Inspekdah]

Really like Cle myself

 

[twinkie13]

disagree. u can get some good lines now if you really think a team is better or worse than public perception. other than the risk of injury, which is present but im not gonna lose sleep over it, why is it impossible? in fact, sometimes watching a team play 4 meaningless preseason games can skew your opinion of them incorrectly

agree with wise....dudes are gettin hurt all over, new coaches, new staffs, etc

GL, but I wouldnt drop my draws on wk 1

 

[twinkie13]

I have Clev in my radar.

who is that bitch in the avy?

 

[wiseplayer]

disagree. u can get some good lines now if you really think a team is better or worse than public perception. other than the risk of injury, which is present but im not gonna lose sleep over it, why is it impossible? in fact, sometimes watching a team play 4 meaningless preseason games can skew your opinion of them incorrectly

When we're in week 1 of the NFL, do we cap a game 4 weeks out in October? I would say its a complete waste of time to do so but to each his own. GL

 

[D-Woww]

well if you take this seriously you are looking 4 weeks in advance for spots

 

[DaRaiders]

TROY...:hello:

 

[TroyStacks]

I'm waiting till week 1 to bet guys. Injuries etc are huge on both sides. There are roughly only a dozen players in the league that can move a point spread more than 1 point anyways. But what if we have a situation where a dog lean like Cleveland +3.5 NOW, goes to +4.5 (based on perception only) if Weeden goes down in preseason. That helps greatly IMO. Anyways just wanted to look at real games right now and get the wheels greased up with some good chat.

 

[TroyStacks]

Added Buffalo to leans removing TB.

 

[D-Woww]

TB is exactly why you DO bet these lines early. opened as -1. now -2.5 at some shops. i guess if you don't like value you can lay off, but u'd save urself a point and a half there.


I'm very interested in Buffalo too, but I think Im just gonna go with the over in that one. Both teams should score 27, with potential to be in the 40s

 

[TreyDawg]

Like em Troy. GL this season :shake:

 

[Mags]

Just jumping in....first, what up Troy, I hope you're well. I have Cleveland on my radar for season win total OVER 6. Waiting as long as I can to put it in but this seems to be a very young, decently talented and hungry team on both sides of the ball. Has to be the youngest team in the league. I don't see them going 0-6 in their division as usual either. Certainly helps that just about everyone but Cincy got worse IMO and Cincy has a killer schedule. Anymore, BOL, we will be in touch.

 

[TroyStacks]

Just jumping in....first, what up Troy, I hope you're well. I have Cleveland on my radar for season win total OVER 6. Waiting as long as I can to put it in but this seems to be a very young, decently talented and hungry team on both sides of the ball. Has to be the youngest team in the league. I don't see them going 0-6 in their division as usual either. Certainly helps that just about everyone but Cincy got worse IMO and Cincy has a killer schedule. Anymore, BOL, we will be in touch.

Mags good to see you love the insights you give in football. I am very high on Cleveland this year. I have them fighting for 2nd in the afc north and even an outside chance at last to first.

GL this year looking forward to chatting it up again this year!

 

[XhuegoX]

i'm really confused about the cleveland/miami line. why does vegas think miami is the better team? I just don't see it.

 

[TroyStacks]

yeah I can't see that either but i'm looking at lines now and may have some different leans.

 

[TroyStacks]

ok updated leans on all games

 

[eggman]

I officially agree with about half your leans, lol. Bol on what you decide.

 

[TroyStacks]

haha def a lot of games and need more time to go through in greater detail but this is just an initial gun to my head right now pick the winner.

 

[Gandolf]

Giants-Cowboys?

 

[TroyStacks]

Giants-Cowboys?

Gandolf- hey man good to see you back on here! I hope all is well with you.

I like Dallas SU but NYG own Dallas in Dallas. +4 I'd take the Giants all day. I do think Dallas finds a way to win the division this year though. Not a lot of Cowboy hype this offseason must be a good thing surely right?!?!

 

[Mags]

Troy - from your list, at those numbers, really like Cincy, KC, Clev, Sea, Philly and Houston. Only one I can honestly say I definitely don't like is GB. I know, sounds crazy but I just think this is going to be a TD+. SF Defense may be too much and they can score enough points to distance themselves.

 

[HUNT]

pythons ftw

 

[TroyStacks]

final card

 

[Play2win]

BOL :shake:

 

[Mags]

GL Troy, looks good bro!