Week 1 misleading finals...

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Nothing misleading about what Texas A&M did to Sakerlina last night. Check the box score for proof.

Wake Forest's 17-10 loss at Monroe featured two D/ST scores. Wake blocked a punt and recovered it in the end zone. Monroe scored on an interception that bounced off the receiver's hands and the DB ran it 31 yards for 6. Pete Thomas's 9 yard QB draw for a score with 3:37 provided the game's only offensive touchdown. The Deacs were ahead 10-0 at one point. Wake freshman QB Wolford was sacked seven times and Monroe drove to the Wake 13 before taking two knees. Wake produced just 25 yards and two first downs in the second half and finished with -3 rushing yards for the game.

Tulane backers who didn't get the optimal number took a tough beat. Tulsa never led in the game until the second overtime. Tulane had a chance to win the game in regulation, but missed a chip shot. In overtime, Tulane kicked a field goal on their first possession. At that point, Tulsa bettors (to the spread) could only win if the exact events transpired as they did. Tulane nutted up and stopped them on 1st and goal from the 4, forcing a tying FG and otot. Tulsa scored and Tulane threw a pick, and the game fell seven, at 38-31. Both teams had gobs of yards, particularly in the first half. Tulane had a first-half INT overturned by penalty and seemed for all the world that they could pull away and hide at any point.

Ole Miss beat itself for three quarters against Boise, with turnovers and penalties keeping the game close. Boise, for its part, had many chances to be in the lead but trailed 7-6 before a 28-point Rebel blitzkrieg in the fourth quarter. Ole Miss made enough mental mistakes to cost it against pretty much every other team in the SEC West. Boise is changing offenses again, and its QB was overmatched. That's one thing Harsin will have to address, because the defense was fairly opportunistic when not being totally overwhelmed with Ole Miss's athleticism.

Significant stuff to watch out of Nashville, as this Vandy coach seemed absolutely clueless. He ended up using three quarterbacks in the first 35 minutes of the game. Without any continuity, the 'Dores committed SEVEN turnovers (-5 on the night) to a Temple team that forced a grand total of 13 turnovers all of last season. Temple did outgain Vandy but had many short fields in the second half and settled for three field goals, else this could have been even worse.

Wild one in Seattle, where the lead switched hands three times in the last 11 minutes. Halladay threw for 532 yards, but the Wazzou ground game (6 carries, 8 yards) was non-existent. Rutgers had enough balance (215 rush, 281 pass) to make their last touchdown at the 3:24 mark hold up in a 3-point win. Each team had 22 first downs; Wazzou was -1 turnover. Didn't catch much of this one, so if someone wants to add to my thoughts, feel free.

None of the I-AA teams beat any of the I-A schools last night. Most significant was New Mexico State's thumping of Cal Poly, 28-10, as a touchdown dog at home. Rose for NM State had 30 carries for 149 yards and Poly threw for just six yards (2-for-7, 1 pick), as their QB carried 17 times for 66 yards. Eastern Illy outgained Minny 409-338 and had 27-18 first down edge but were -2 in turnovers and many of the yards were in garbage time as they were down 35-0 and 42-7 inside the last minute before scoring two touchdowns to make the final look respectable. UT-Chattanooga led 16-0 with 3:34 left in the second quarter but could generate nothing after that, losing at Central Michigan 20-16. The Mocs were -3 in turnovers. Central took a knee in FG range at the end after their fourth interception.
 
Felt that Tulane one! Had 6.5...and 7 was at -140, I'd never lay that much juice when I had Tulane winning that game out right by 2.44! Oh well.

Good notes CRK!
 
Man. Boise/ole miss over 52 killed 2 parlays. That game should have had 60 plus pts. Red zone turnovers. Did boise HC ever hear of a qb sneak from the half yd line?? Had two chances to sneak but instead he decides that call a deep handoff from the I. Both teams qbs stink. Wallace is terrible. Locks onto wrs like it's his first time playing qb. Hendricks wow never thought he was that bad but he is.
 
dudley - the game still almost went over despite all of that offensive shittiness. It sure would want to make me think twice before ever fuckin betting an UNDER in college. A classic case study as to why the suckers, when in doubt, always gravitate to OVER.

Another note, stud Central Mishitgan WR Titus Davis was on crutches with ice taped to his knee when the gun sounded last night. Certainly doesn't look like he'll be playing at Purdue, and Chippewa backers can only hope their worst fears aren't realized when the tests come back later.
 
Another note, stud Central Mishitgan WR Titus Davis was on crutches with ice taped to his knee when the gun sounded last night. Certainly doesn't look like he'll be playing at Purdue, and Chippewa backers can only hope their worst fears aren't realized when the tests come back later.

Thanks
 
thanks, alimony... please, fellas, feel free to contribute to it as you see fit if you saw something last night that i did not mention above. Should be that way all year, of course
 
Boise needs to change some things on offense, i felt like this was a "hear-we-go-let's-see-how-he-does" type attitude, but Hendrick looked awful with no confidence (i guess that's what 4 INT's does). Regardless looked very square peg into round hole.
 
Washington st was leading by 4 with 7 mins left but fumbled the punt near midfield......rutgers just pounded paul james till he scores a td with almost 3 half mins left......Washington st missed 50 yard field goal before half....ball bounced of right goal post.....cougars last drive got sacked 1st down near midfield n on 4th 13 ....qb loft the ball n slot receiver had to jump for the ball that gave defender time to jar it incomplete....defender same guy that jar ball loose on punt....receiver same guy that fumble the punt....
 
If I get more chances to bet against Howard, I will. They looked terrible against Akron. Did nothing offensively, however they were missing their stud RB from last year (out injured) and the QB has some skills, but really had no support. Can't say Akron looked great, but certainly good enough to beat a depleted Howard squad.
 
TAMU longest play was 33 yards which, IMO, makes that all the more of a dominating performance. They dominated both LOS as well
 
The Vanderbilt coach is so far over his skis. Rivers sucks, even I can see that. I know 7 turnovers but they arent going to get better.
 
The Vanderbilt coach is so far over his skis. Rivers sucks, even I can see that. I know 7 turnovers but they arent going to get better.

Line of the night I heard somewhere (paraphrased): Stephen Rivers: positives are his height and last name. Negatives are everything else
 
Of course I went contrarian over 50.5 and I knew Vandy was not going to close when they were inside 10 late. They could have ran it in. However, I figured even if they did score, dumb coach would probably go for 2 and miss, leaving me sitting at 50. Fuck an A. Robinette looked fine. They would have scored with him. You go through all preseason to choose a qb and then pull him in a tie game after 3 drives 4-6 and he can run. Vanderbilt coach is straight retarded.
 
Great thread had one of these going at another forum..

Let's do this all week..
 
Presbyterian was D2 last year if I remember correctly and I think they play 2 more lined games
 
Coach is downplaying the severity of the injury to the Chips WR fwiw. Whether that is because he doesn't want to take heat for having him in there on special teams is the reason or not is to be determined. Anyway looks like a sprain most likely.
 
Boise needs to change some things on offense, i felt like this was a "hear-we-go-let's-see-how-he-does" type attitude, but Hendrick looked awful with no confidence (i guess that's what 4 INT's does). Regardless looked very square peg into round hole.


He ain't going anywhere and based on the boxscore/playbyplay I am dropping ole miss in my pr and raising boise.
 
it looked/it sounds like boise could be a good under squad and Ole Miss despite all the athletes are going to be in for a rough one this year. Bo Wallace looked terrible from what I watched

TAMU obviously with the performance of the night, but the Phillies broadcasters interviewed the Temple coach at a game last week and he sounded way more confident than a normal coach getting interviewed before the first game
 
He ain't going anywhere and based on the boxscore/playbyplay I am dropping ole miss in my pr and raising boise.

i watched a good part of that game. Boise was basically physically dominated, and were only in the game because of Ole Miss stupidity, whether it be in the form of careless penalties, turnovers or just general August sloppiness. Bottom line, Boise might well be competitive in the MWC and Ole Miss looked like a bottom-of-the-barrel SEC West team, but that still makes them a pretty good team. The right team eventually got the cash.
 
I would disagree with that assessment. Ole Miss certainly the more talented team, but there wasn't any domination out there for 3 quarters. I was actually encouraged by the Boise offense. Other than the turnovers and the red zone, they moved the ball fine. One team ran for 3.7/carry, the other 2.1. Guess which team did better. Ajayi is going to have a field day in the MWC.
 
i saw how many times he ran the ball. If they kept up at that pace, he'd get like 430 touches this year or something sick. Talk about killing the guy before he ever gets even a chance to go to an NFL camp
 
Wild one in Seattle, where the lead switched hands three times in the last 11 minutes. Halladay threw for 532 yards, but the Wazzou ground game (6 carries, 8 yards) was non-existent. Rutgers had enough balance (215 rush, 281 pass) to make their last touchdown at the 3:24 mark hold up in a 3-point win. Each team had 22 first downs; Wazzou was -1 turnover. Didn't catch much of this one, so if someone wants to add to my thoughts, feel free.

Washington st was leading by 4 with 7 mins left but fumbled the punt near midfield......rutgers just pounded paul james till he scores a td with almost 3 half mins left......Washington st missed 50 yard field goal before half....ball bounced of right goal post.....cougars last drive got sacked 1st down near midfield n on 4th 13 ....qb loft the ball n slot receiver had to jump for the ball that gave defender time to jar it incomplete....defender same guy that jar ball loose on punt....receiver same guy that fumble the punt....

wazzou's run game was and will be non-existent. no surprise there.
didn't see enough of this game, being on vacation...but was kinda surprised at how well rutgers lined up against them. bottom line...wazzou's lost some pieces from last year...o-line, receivers, & on defense...and that (physically) wasn't remotely close to the same cougar team that lined up against auburn and usc to begin last season. either that, or rutgers is (physically) much better than anticipated...and thus, ready to compete better than expected in their new conference.
 
Just gonna throw some notes/perception in here too


BYU-UConn -- I think the total number of points scored in this game was very misleading, specifically BYU's. They either committed or were called for 15 penalties for 150 yards, almost all of which were on the offensive side of the ball. Note that BYU remained in the uptempo for the entirety of the game even when ahead big. They should be a decent over team this year. UConn seems to have a changed identity this year. The defense appears more vulnerable, the run game (where they have hung their hat since joining fbs) is no longer there just like last year but they do appear to have a more competent pass game on the rare occasions they give the qb time. Might be a decent large underdog in the right circumstance. I guess BYU was playing with backup DB's so maybe that helped UConn toss it around a bit. A little worried about a coach who kicks a fg down 28-7 with 11:48 to go in the game, but thought the kids played hard for him for 60 minutes so maybe they have bought in. Hill looked one notch better as a passer than he did last year but that isn't saying much.

Arizona/unlv -- Arizona secondary has taken a step backwards as you would expect with the graduation and injuries at the positions. Their receivers appear to be pretty darn explosive. Young QB looks like he has potential and makes decent decisions but his accuracy needs a lot of work. He missed some very easy passes in that game. Their running game looks less explosive but i think it progresses as the year does. The Zona defense was very aggressive with blitz packages and the DL which was a question going into the game did a decent job against a not so bad unlv oline. Going into the game i was under the impression that unlv was a team that was banned from a bowl this season but apparently they appealed and had that decision reversed. That makes them a more dangerous team going forward. Their WR tandem is going to give a few team fits. Davis and Boyd are big receivers and have talent. Decker does a decent job getting them the ball and as i mentioned, the oline isn't bad. The combination of a decent passing game and a bad defense is going to make for some high scoring games for the rebels. As bad as the defense was ,,,, and they were bad ... i would take some of it with a grain of salt as zona had 240 yards on three big td plays from 63, 85 and 92 yards.
 
I missed the utsa at Houston game ... so very little to say there but because of the bad snap for a huge loss the Cougars ended the game with negative yards rushing, the team had 208 yards of total offense, and O'kornhole had 4 interceptions on 204 yards passing ... or one for every 50 yards. Houston also fumbled it away twice. First and ten at utsa 17, fumbled it away. First and ten at utsa 24, zero points, First and goal at utsa 10 they back themselves up with penalties and get intercepted at the 3 yard line, First and ten utsa 24 and intercepted, .... their TD came with roughly a minute to go in the game when the backups were in. No big response out of Houston coming out of lockerroom for 2h is telling in this one. Looks like UTSA mostly managed the game on offense after a certain point which was smart coaching. Obviously the defense was opportunistic. Team is an enigma but might be backable often as their hfa is pretty good and people don't know that.... or know they were above expectations last year. Program appears to have footing though they will lose a lot to graduation here soon. Manhandled at home by utsa ... just not a good sign for Houston.
 
BG-WKU -- I know that if you are a coach, you are going to take your formula for winning and apply it to your team but the transition for BG year over year has really hurt their football team. Yes, they lost some key defenders and bg isn't exactly a reload program but why the new staff felt the need to change the scheme of a team that has been overachieving the last few on defense is a mystery to me. WKU had 708 yards of offense in the game ... they ran 96 plays .... they scored 59 points ( 2 TD in every qtr ) ... Doughty threw for 569 yards. wku offense is largely the same but more pass heavy ( i think he is using his personnel .... would run more if he had last years personnel )_ to put it in perspective BG allowed roughly 2400 yards last year passing ..... offensive Pace is gonna mean the defense tires faster. not sure the linesmaker or market can adjust to the new bg fast enough .. probably over opportunities the first part of the year.
 
Nova probably should have beaten Orange. Cuse QB thrown out pretty early i believe for throwing a punch so take that into some consideration.
 
UCLA defense scored three defensive TDs at Virginia. They were pretty soundly outplayed most if not all the game. UVA had more yards, more first downs and controlled the ball for a much larger chunk of time. UCLA managed just one offensive TD. Most importantly they were outplayed at the LOS severely. They couldn't protect Hundley at all. They have a lot to work on in Westwood.
 
Ohio U with a nice conference win at Kent State. It was a bit sloppy, but they kicked a FG at the gun to prevail, 17-14. The previous four drives before the last FG ended in Ohio U fumbers in Kent State territory. The Golden Flashes did not cash in any of the first three, finally getting a tying touchdown with less than 3 mins left before the Bobcats drove for the last FG.
 
courtesy of saturdayedge


Now that the regular season has arrived, we’ll be devoting the bulk of time and space in this midweek “stat” feature toward developments gleaned from boxscores. Some weeks, that will mean we’ll focus in depth on a misleading final score that painted a very inaccurate picture of what happened on the field. Other times we’ll isolate red flags that seem to be making big announcements about what lies ahead.
Ideally, this will serve as a solid transition point from what happened last week toward what’s likely to happen this week and beyond.
With that in mind, let’s start off this edition with a few misleading final scores from the opening week of 2014 college football action.
Misleading Final Scores Week # 1

  • Penn State earned a dramatic 26-24 victory over Central Florida this past Saturday morning in a game played in Ireland. Many of you watched “Breakfast from Dublin,” or at least the fourth quarter after you realized it was a very early start! Highlight shows throughout the rest of the day tended to focus on the back-and-forth nature of the fourth quarter, and Penn State’s first win under new head coach James Franklin.
Lost in the shuffle:
Penn State outgained UCF by a stunning 511-246 margin as an underdog
Penn State held UCF to 24 rushing yards on 0.8 yards-per-carry
Penn State QB Christian Hackenburg threw for 454 yards on 9.7 yards-per-attempt
Penn State was much more impressive than the final score and subsequent highlight packages would have had you believe. Turnovers could continue to be an issue with a pass-heavy offense (the game was close because PSU lost the turnover category 3-1). But handicappers need to be aware of that 511-246 stat slaughter moving forward. (Penn State is -14.5 this week vs. Akron, as early money has faded the Nittany Lions on the “jet lag” theory. Central Florida is off until September 13 at Missouri)

  • Louisiana Monroe rallied from behind to get past Wake Forest 17-10 last Thursday. Those backing Monroe had to sweat most of the night. But, their bleak assessment for Wake Forest was largely correct.
Monroe outgained Wake Forest 352-94
Monroe outrushed Wake Forest 163 to negative 3
Wake Forest’s only TD came on a blocked punt return
It was a miracle that Wake Forest was in the game as late as they were. The Demon Deacons will be in big trouble this year when facing opponents better than Monroe. They’re on the “extra game” board this week at home against Gardner Webb. Road games against the defenses of Utah State and Louisville loom later in the month. Louisiana Monroe is currently -14 at home against an Idaho team that will be a week behind in game-readiness because of their weather-induced postponement at Florida.

  • Temple and Texas-San Antonio scored blowout victories as underdogs last week, over Vanderbilt and Houston (by scores of 37-7 and 27-7 respectively). The magnitude of those blowouts was greatly influenced by turnover differential though. The dogs did play well enough to earn clean victories based on their yardage advantages (Temple outgained Vandy 352-278, while UTSA outgained Houston 267-208). But the games were slaughters because:
Vanderbilt lost the ball SEVEN times, setting up 30 relatively cheap points for Temple
Houston lost the ball SIX times, setting up 13 relatively cheap points for UTSA
I keep track of “drive points” by hand, which I define as those scored on offensive drives of 60 yards or more. Temple won “drive points” by only a 7-0 margin over Vandy, while Houston was tied with UTSA at 7-7.
Temple and UTSA aren’t unlikely to enjoy such friendly turnover fortune when they face Navy and Arizona this week (Temple is +3 as a home dog, UTSA is +7 as a home dog). Vandy and Houston have legitimate offensive concerns they need to fix. But turnover debacles of that magnitude are less likely down the road. Vandy has an immediate test this week as a 20-point home underdog vs. Ole Miss. Houston scrimmages with Grambling this week before a very tough road game at BYU on September 11.
Focusing on Offense
Focusing now on some “statement” performances by offenses. Handicappers obviously have to be careful about overreacting to opening week boxscores. It’s very easy for teams to create illusions of greatness by running up the stats on an opening week cupcake. Memphis gained 545 yards in a 63-0 rout of Austin Peay. We just don’t know what that means until the Tigers play a real team. There are more than a dozen examples like that from last week’s squash matches.
BUT…when teams run up the stats against opponents who weren’t supposed to be pushovers,that’s much more likely to mean something.
Some quick examples:

  • Texas A&M gained 680 yards as a double digit underdog on the road at South Carolina. You just can’t luck your way into doing that. You can luck your way into big victory margins with some turnover breaks. You can luck your way into an upset if the favorite makes a few miscues. You can’t luck your way to 680 yards on the road in the SEC against a top 20 caliber team. An easy September awaits the Aggies (Lamar, Rice, at SMU, Arkansas in Arlington). For now, the evidence suggests A&M will be able to score additional meaningful wins when the schedule toughens up in October and November.

  • Western Kentucky gained 702 yards and scored 59 points as an underdog to a Bowling Green team that’s one of the favorites to win the MAC. That was off the charts in terms of expectations. The market had projected a score in the vicinity of 36-29 for Bowling Green. Western Kentucky more than doubled their scoring estimate. And, believe if it or not, all 59 points came on drives of 60 yards or more! No cheap points here. The Hilltoppers are +6 at Illinois Saturday. That, by the way, is an Illini team that trailed Youngstown State at home this past Saturday entering the fourth quarter.

  • USC gained 702 yards and scored 45 points on drives of 60 yards or more against a Fresno State team that’s likely to play in a bowl this year. Yes, Fresno was nearly a three-TD underdog. But, the market’s projected score was about 38-20. USC was supposed to score about 38 for the game, yet managed 45 “drive points” and more than 700 yards. That may be why early money has moved the Trojans from +4 at Stanford this Saturday down to +2.5.
There are a couple of other games of note where handicappers should at least acknowledge high yardage totals. Against admittedly vulnerable defenses, Arizona gained 787 yards against UNLV in a 58-13 win, and Nebraska made it to 784 yards in their “Pelini Pride” pulverization of Florida Atlantic. Neither team in the 780-club turned the ball over. Maybe there’s some air in those numbers. But, you can’t “luck” your way to 780-plus yards with 0 turnovers. Clean, high volume execution. We’ve already noted that Arizona visits UTSA this week. Nebraska has a tune-up this week against McNeese State before visiting the Fresno State defense that just got ravaged by USC
 
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