Week 1 MACtion with Marsski

Marsski

Marsski

MAC Marvel
Gentlemen: The greatest time of the year is here it's MAC-tion, baby.

I'll be here each week to guide you through the highs and lows (mostly lows) of attempting to bet on this shit. And don't act like you're not betting on it, you know you are.

So buckle up and let's talk some MACtion football--God's gift to all degenerate gamblers everywhere.

 
This week's midweek slate for your viewing pleasure:

Tuesday 7pm

U Mass
@ Akron-10.5 49.5

Miami Oh
@ Ohio -3.5 49.5

Wednesday 730 pm

Kent State
@ Ball State -2 46

N Illinois
@ Toledo -14.5 42.5


Weather:
No adverse weather expected although there is a very small chance of rain in Toledo Wednesday night.

I'll be in here later with some thoughts on each game.
 
Last edited:
U Mass @ Akron

Akron has one of those QBs who seems like he's been playing forever in 6th year senior Ben Finley. In his second year as a full-time starter, Finley can look decent at times such as the wins vs CMU and last week against Buffalo. I trust him to get the ball out tonight against horrific U Mass team that is getting wrecked by everyone. I think it will be long, grinding drives as opposed to explosive plays
U Mass wouldn't even be a good team if they dropped down a level (Sagarin has them #227) and they have played exactly one FBS team within 17 points in Buffalo. Their offense has more quick 3 and outs than a Thai hooker. They lost to 1-7 Bryant in September. This is also their first taste of midweek MACtion and Akron won't have anyone at the game to get anyone excited to play.
This will be a snoozer only for the real elite MACtion degens to watch. You can't take UMass so the only way to play this would be lay the points with Akron or UMass TT under.
Is it fun to lay double digits with Akron? Fuck no. But it's hard to see how UMass hangs around and doesn't lose by 14+.

I'm not going to get fancy here, I'm just gonna run off tackle and play Akron. Call it 27-13.

I do think it's gonna rise so get your 10 now.

Play: Akron -10 for 1 unit
 
Last edited:
Fired up for MACtion to kickoff ..
Really the only conference I care about anymore!!!

Umass is horrible, the loss to Bryant looks worse and worse as the season goes on.
Having a difficult time putting money on the Zips but 10 doesn't seem like enough ...

Can't wait for our beloved Bulls to be on national TV next Wednesday. Their current conference record might be smoke & mirrors thou



Best of luck brother
Sweep your Mac slate 🤑💵
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
Fired up for MACtion to kickoff ..
Really the only conference I care about anymore!!!

Umass is horrible, the loss to Bryant looks worse and worse as the season goes on.
Having a difficult time putting money on the Zips but 10 doesn't seem like enough ...

Can't wait for our beloved Bulls to be on national TV next Wednesday. Their current conference record might be smoke & mirrors thou



Best of luck brother
Sweep your Mac slate 🤑💵
Click to expand...
Good luck to you brother. I expected Buffalo to be better than they are. I like Pete Lembo a lot but they just haven't played up to where I expected them to be. Shit, they almost lost to U Mass. I hear you on laying the 10 with the Zips but that's the only way to go....
 
DeQuan Finn, we meet again.

A dual-threat monster at times, Finn was the QB at Toledo who gave the Buckeyes fits in the Horseshoe with his rocket arm and slippery running ability. He won a MAC title with Toledo by beating my Bobcats 17-7 in 2022 and seemed poised to be a portal star when he moved up to Baylor last year. Alas, he struggled at Utah in game 2 and get benched and that was kind of it for his time with the Bears.

Now back in the MAC with Miami, he looked overmatched early @ Wisky and got hurt in the UNLV game and missed a week before coming back. He's a dual threat so Miami likes to run hm 12x and ask him to be more a game manager this year with Miami's buttoned never-left-1975 offense.
Dating back to his Toledo days, Finn's got talent for sure but kind of wondering what's happened to him since he went on walkabout. I don't think Miami's scheme is properly utliizing his talent and I'm wondering whether they have the dogs in the WR room to lean more heavily on the pass.

The Bobcats D can be scored on for sure, but Miami has a very conservative coach out of the Jim Tressel school of punt and play defense so they could be a little handcuffed in terms of going for it on 4th down. They also have a very good kicker so expect a 50+ yarder attempt if they get the chance.
If the Bobcats will win this game, it will be because of Parker Navarro and their offense. Let's time travel all the way back to last year's MAC championship game when Navarro and the Bobcats shredded Miami's D to the tune of 38-3 to win Ohio's first MAC championship since 1968.

Am I getting high on my supply thinking that Ohio can have a similar performance at home tonight? Maybe. But Navarro did just throw for a career high 315 on EMU last week, and is really a better overall player then what we saw for most of 2024. Bangura is a steady presence at RB who hits the hole hard (that's what she said), and Chase Hendricks is probably the best WR in the MAC with 58 catches on the year.

Enough money has come in on Miami to move this number through the 3 down to 2.5. I'm thinking that's based on people expecting Miami's very good defense to be able to shut down Ohio's very good offense. I think the red zone will be key as the Bobcats need to get into the end zone to win this game.

I think this game could be kind of a sneaky shootout. I'll take Ohio -2.5 at home where they have won 21 of their last 22. I also lean over 49.5. Call it 30-24

My play: Ohio -2.5 to win 1 unit

May be back with a prop or two for this game...
 
Last edited:
Marsski said:
Good luck to you brother. I expected Buffalo to be better than they are. I like Pete Lembo a lot but they just haven't played up to where I expected them to be. Shit, they almost lost to U Mass. I hear you on laying the 10 with the Zips but that's the only way to go....
Click to expand...


Thank you much respected Brother...Really appreciate you posting about the MAC ... Tremendously value your insight. Insta tailing on both the Zips and Bobcats ...For what it's worth my worthless numbers have Akron -14.03 and Ohio -5.94
 
C-MAN said:
I have to admit, I never paid attention to (and had no interest in) the MAC in years past, but now I have a kid at OU and love it! Go Bobcats!
Click to expand...
Love it brother. Athens is a great place to go to school. You ever need any info on A Town let me know. I highly recommend Tony's for a beer.
 
Marsski said:
DeQuan Finn, we meet again.

A dual-threat monster at times, Finn was the QB at Toledo who gave the Buckeyes fits in the Horseshoe with his rocket arm and slippery running ability. He won a MAC title with Toledo by beating my Bobcats 17-7 in 2022 and seemed poised to be a portal star when he moved up to Baylor last year. Alas, he struggled at Utah in game 2 and get benched and that was kind of it for his time with the Bears.

Now back in the MAC with Miami, he looked overmatched early @ Wisky and got hurt in the UNLV game and missed a week before coming back. He's a dual threat so Miami likes to run hm 12x and ask him to be more a game manager this year with Miami's buttoned never-left-1975 offense.
Dating back to his Toledo days, Finn's got talent for sure but kind of wondering what's happened to him since he went on walkabout. I don't think Miami's scheme is properly utliizing his talent and I'm wondering whether they have the dogs in the WR room to lean more heavily on the pass.

The Bobcats D can be scored on for sure, but Miami has a very conservative coach out of the Jim Tressel school of punt and play defense so they could be a little handcuffed in terms of going for it on 4th down. They also have a very good kicker so expect a 50+ yarder attempt if they get the chance.
If the Bobcats will win this game, it will be because of Parker Navarro and their offense. Let's time travel all the way back to last year's MAC championship game when Navarro and the Bobcats shredded Miami's D to the tune of 38-3 to win Ohio's first MAC championship since 1968.

Am I getting high on my supply thinking that Ohio can have a similar performance at home tonight? Maybe. But Navarro did just throw for a career high 315 on EMU last week, and is really a better overall player then what we saw for most of 2024. Bangura is a steady presence at RB who hits the hole hard (that's what she said), and Chase Hendricks is probably the best WR in the MAC with 58 catches on the year.

Enough money has come in on Miami to move this number through the 3 down to 2.5. I'm thinking that's based on people expecting Miami's very good defense to be able to shut down Ohio's very good offense. I think the red zone will be key as the Bobcats need to get into the end zone to win this game.

I think this game could be kind of a sneaky shootout. I'll take Ohio -2.5 at home where they have won 21 of their last 22. I also lean over 49.5. Call it 30-24

My play: Ohio -2.5 to win 1 unit

May be back with a prop or two for this game...
Click to expand...
any thoughts on Bangura o82.5? Miami run d metrics not great but trending okay in conference play
 
survive&advance said:
any thoughts on Bangura o82.5? Miami run d metrics not great but trending okay in conference play
Click to expand...
I made it 88 so I passed on it since it wasn't enough of a difference to play. I think he gets his touches 16-18 range. Brune only gets about 7-8 so no issue with stealing the load. I lean over for him. My main concern would be Ohio going to the air too much.
 
Marsski said:
I made it 88 so I passed on it since it wasn't enough of a difference to play. I think he gets his touches 16-18 range. Brune only gets about 7-8 so no issue with stealing the load. I lean over for him. My main concern would be Ohio going to the air too much.
Click to expand...

I was def looking more at Navarro ov 207.5 passing, seems like the better way to attack the mia-o d and if your suspicion correct it turns into a higher scoring game 208 isn’t asking all that much. He down to freaking 199.5 now, don’t think I can pass on that!
 
2daBank said:
I was def looking more at Navarro ov 207.5 passing, seems like the better way to attack the mia-o d and if your suspicion correct it turns into a higher scoring game 208 isn’t asking all that much. He down to freaking 199.5 now, don’t think I can pass on that!
Click to expand...
Yeah like this esp at 199.5
 
ball st look trappy. kent hasn't won away since 2022. 0-18 L18 away. outscored by over 35 ppg. 3-13-2 ats. sagarin says ball state by 7+ yet its basically pk. cheers dude 🤝 like ur thread a lot
 
Marsski said:
Yeah like this esp at 199.5
Click to expand...

I took that and as his passing total was trending down his rushing shot up to 69.5. Took a little the rush under, not that I don’t think he run but he takes a lot of sacks and Miami has a top 20 sack rate, it only takes a few big losses to make 70 pretty freaking tough to hit. Thanks for your Mac stuff as always bro, always enjoy reading your stuff this time of year cause I don’t follow Mac all that close.
 
austinhous said:
ball st look trappy. kent hasn't won away since 2022. 0-18 L18 away. outscored by over 35 ppg. 3-13-2 ats. sagarin says ball state by 7+ yet its basically pk. cheers dude 🤝 like ur thread a lot
Click to expand...

Kent to me has shown some spunk since the 2h of the Okla game.
 
Thanks for you taking the time to share your insight and expertise here Mars.

Much appreciated...

1762295809117.png
 
Just got back from Athens, what a wild game. Against all odds, it did turn into a sneaky shootout. All the Bangura and most of the Navarro prop over numbers get home.
2-0 night for me with Akron rolling as expected.
We will be back chopping wood tomorrow, thanks for reading.
 
Last edited:
NIU @ Toledo

Toledo comes limping into this game after getting destroyed out in Pullman where they headed for an odd mid-MAC game vs Wazzou. Maybe that was to be expected but scoring a season low 7 points in 11 possessions shows me that there is trouble in Dildo Land with the MAC's most infuriating coach Jason Candle.

People were hyping Toledo as a possible playoff qualifier before the season but the MAC old heads know Candle's teams are always way too inconsistent for that to ever happen. Always undisciplined, you can count on Toledo to get flagged for stupid shit every game.

It's a fair to say the Rocket men definitely play better at home having scored 45, 45,60, and 45 this year. But look at who they were playing--Kent, Akron, Morgan State, and W Kentucky. Not exactly the 85 Bears.

NIU is 7-3 to the under this year, and they love to muck it up under Hammond who is generally a fiesty dog. They have a very good defense and will basically run the ball all game unless they have to pass because of scoreboard pressure. Toss the Ohio game and the other NIU games among the last five have landed on 28, 26, 39 and 9.

I think Toledo's offense is a bit fugazi and they could be missing Ohio State transfer Chip Trayanum who has been out the last two games. The RB backups are capable but definitely a dropoff if Trayanum (who actually played some at THE Ohio State) can't put on the pads.

I could only play NIU catching 14.5 or the under in this game. I'm going to go under because of the defensive talent out on the field for both teams and NIU's style of play. Call it 20-10 Rockets.

My play: NIU/Toledo undah 42.5 for 1 unit

Got one prop I'm looking at, but I'll be back later about that...
 
Last edited:
austinhous said:
ball st look trappy. kent hasn't won away since 2022. 0-18 L18 away. outscored by over 35 ppg. 3-13-2 ats. sagarin says ball state by 7+ yet its basically pk. cheers dude 🤝 like ur thread a lot
Click to expand...
Looking at this game right now, I see your point for sure....
 
Marsski said:
NIU @ Toledo

Toledo comes limping into this game after getting destroyed out in Pullman where they headed for an odd mid-MAC game vs Wazzou. Maybe that was to be expected but scoring a season low 7 points in 11 possessions shows me that their is trouble in Dildo Land with the MAC's most infuriating coach Jason Candle.
People were hyping Toledo as a possible playoff qualifier before the season but the MAC old heads know Candle's teams are always way too inconsistent for that to ever happen. Always undisciplined you can count on Toledo to get flagged for stupid shit every game.

It's a fair to say the Rocket men definitely play better at home having scored 45, 45,60, and 45 this year. But look at who they were playing--Kent, Akron, Morgan State, and W Kentucky. Not exactly the 85 Bears.

NIU is 7-3 to the under this year, and they love to muck it up under Hammond who is generally a fiesty dog. They have a very good defense and will basically run the ball all game unless they have to pass because of scoreboard pressure. Toss the Ohio game and the other NIU games among the last five have landed on 28, 26, 39 and 9.

I think Toledo's offense is a bit fugazi and they could be missing Ohio State transfer Chip Trayanum who has been out the last two games. The RB backups are capable but definitely a dropoff if Trayanum (who actually played some at THE Ohio State) can't put on the pads.

I could only play NIU catching 14.5 or the under in this game. I'm going to go under because of the defensive talent out on the field for both teams and NIU's style of play. Call it 20-10 Rockets.

My play: NIU/Toledo undah 42.5 for 1 unit

Got one prop I'm looking at, but I'll be back later about that...
Click to expand...
Glad to see you're on the under as well.

Supposed to be kind of windy too...
 
Marsski said:
U Mass @ Akron

Akron has one of those QBs who seems like he's been playing forever in 6th year senior Ben Finley. In his second year as a full-time starter, Finley can look decent at times such as the wins vs CMU and last week against Buffalo. I trust him to get the ball out tonight against horrific U Mass team that is getting wrecked by everyone. I think it will be long, grinding drives as opposed to explosive plays
U Mass wouldn't even be a good team if they dropped down a level (Sagarin has them #227) and they have played exactly one FBS team within 17 points in Buffalo. Their offense has more quick 3 and outs than a Thai hooker. They lost to 1-7 Bryant in September. This is also their first taste of midweek MACtion and Akron won't have anyone at the game to get anyone excited to play.
This will be a snoozer only for the real elite MACtion degens to watch. You can't take UMass so the only way to play this would be lay the points with Akron or UMass TT under.
Is it fun to lay double digits with Akron? Fuck no. But it's hard to see how UMass hangs around and doesn't lose by 14+.

I'm not going to get fancy here, I'm just gonna run off tackle and play Akron. Call it 27-13.

I do think it's gonna rise so get your 10 now.

Play: Akron -10 for 1 unit
Click to expand...
Great, great cap sir!
 
Marsski said:
Just got back from Athens, what a wild game. Against all odds, it did turn into a sneaky shootout. All the Bangura and most of the Navarro prop over numbers get home.
2-0 night for me with Akron rolling as expected.
We will be back chopping wood tomorrow, thanks for reading.
Click to expand...
Great start, obviously not unexpected.

Appreciate the write-ups and links!
 
Marsski said:
Just got back from Athens, what a wild game. Against all odds, it did turn into a sneaky shootout. All the Bangura and most of the Navarro prop over numbers get home.
2-0 night for me with Akron rolling as expected.
We will be back chopping wood tomorrow, thanks for reading.
Click to expand...



Thank you very much again ..Headed to the sportsbook cashing $520 ....
 
B.A.R. said:
He's the man of the Mac!

(Shout-out @DOUBLEUP4LIFE on MAC info as well! )

He gave us a freebie in the World Series last week as well as a bankroll builder for MACtion.
Click to expand...


My MAC picks have been 500. At best the last couple years. Probably more like 43%😂😂😂

Finally went 2-0 , wouldn't have unless I felt validated with the Great Marsski being on the same sides ..


Thank you for the shout-out Brother !!!
 
Marsski said:
NIU @ Toledo

Toledo comes limping into this game after getting destroyed out in Pullman where they headed for an odd mid-MAC game vs Wazzou. Maybe that was to be expected but scoring a season low 7 points in 11 possessions shows me that there is trouble in Dildo Land with the MAC's most infuriating coach Jason Candle.

People were hyping Toledo as a possible playoff qualifier before the season but the MAC old heads know Candle's teams are always way too inconsistent for that to ever happen. Always undisciplined you can count on Toledo to get flagged for stupid shit every game.

It's a fair to say the Rocket men definitely play better at home having scored 45, 45,60, and 45 this year. But look at who they were playing--Kent, Akron, Morgan State, and W Kentucky. Not exactly the 85 Bears.

NIU is 7-3 to the under this year, and they love to muck it up under Hammond who is generally a fiesty dog. They have a very good defense and will basically run the ball all game unless they have to pass because of scoreboard pressure. Toss the Ohio game and the other NIU games among the last five have landed on 28, 26, 39 and 9.

I think Toledo's offense is a bit fugazi and they could be missing Ohio State transfer Chip Trayanum who has been out the last two games. The RB backups are capable but definitely a dropoff if Trayanum (who actually played some at THE Ohio State) can't put on the pads.

I could only play NIU catching 14.5 or the under in this game. I'm going to go under because of the defensive talent out on the field for both teams and NIU's style of play. Call it 20-10 Rockets.

My play: NIU/Toledo undah 42.5 for 1 unit

Got one prop I'm looking at, but I'll be back later about that...
Click to expand...


Love the write up
.
Everytime I bet an under in the MAC the final score is somewhere in the 70's lol ....

I'll avoid the under tonight , so you should cash easy brother ....

Tempted to take NIU, my meaningless numbers have Toledo -12.95 ....
 
Under makes sense to me, normally like niu as dogs but their offense been especially awful this year.
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
Love the write up
.
Everytime I bet an under in the MAC the final score is somewhere in the 70's lol ....

I'll avoid the under tonight , so you should cash easy brother ....

Tempted to take NIU, my meaningless numbers have Toledo -12.95 ....
Click to expand...

Normally I’d be all over them but if Toledo run d numbers legit it really tough to find points for niu. Feel like might as well play Toledo tt under if I like niu cause I damn sure don’t trust them to cover if toledo hangs 28+.
 
Kent State @ Ball State

This game, ugh.
As was pointed out earlier in this thread by Austin Hous, Kent State hasn't won on the road since 2022. They have shown enough life this year including a win last time out as a 7 point dig over BUGS to get their interim coach a permanent gig as the Golden Flashes coach. They seem to have some momentum after taking their lumps against the big boys in the non-conference.
Ball State is a very hard team to read. I watched their game against my Bobcats when they rallied in the second half to beat my boys and I still don't really understand how it happened. By the way, they were running a lot of option and zone read in that game which I'm not sure is their regular offense??
No one can really run the ball here which I think points to both teams looking to throw. I lean to Kent and slightly to the under but I think I'm just going to sit this one out. I don't have a good feel for Ball State and I can't bring myself to bet a team like Kent that hasn't won on the road since 2022.

My play: No dice
 
Last edited:
I do have a prop I like tonight which runs slightly counter to my under play in the NIU/Toledo game but so be it...

I know you guys come into this thread because you find some shit that no one else will tell you. In that vein, let me be the first to tell you that we got ourselves a good old fashioned revenge game tonight for Mr. Trayvon Rudolph #9 of the Toledo Rockets. Guess where he used to play in the MAC? NIU Huskies, brothers.

He's kind of a kick return guy, a small and speedy dude often times lined up in the slot. He's not Toledo's #1 receiving option but rest assured he can bust a big play at any moment.

The last four weeks, the Rockets have been leaning on him more with 20 catches and yardage totals of 41, 44, 119, 45. I played him over 47.5 tonight as I expect them to look his way.

Would I like a slightly better number? Sure, but I'll take what I can get here armed with the knowledge of his extra motivation to get loose on the guys he used to face in practice. He's had some big games over the years on MACtion nights I recall.

My play: #9 Trayvon Rudolph over 47.5 receiving yards to win half unit (-114)

I think that's going to do it for my Wednesday night. Good luck to us if you join me. All comments and questions always welcome.
 
Marsski said:
Kent State @ Ball State

This game, ugh.
As was pointed out earlier in this thread by Austin Hous, Kent State hasn't on the road since 2022. They have shown enough life this year including a win last time out as a 7 point dig over BUGS to get their interim coach a permanent gig as the Golden Flashes coach. They seem to have some momentum after taking their lumps against the big boys in the non-conference.
Ball State is a very hard team to read. I watched their game against my Bobcats when they rallied in the second half to beat my boys and I still don't really understand how it happened. By the way, they were running a lot of option and zone read in that game which I'm not sure is their regular offense??
No one can really run the ball here which I think points to both teams looking to throw. I lean to Kent and slightly to the under but I think I'm just going to sit this one out. I don't have a good feel for Ball State and I can't bring myself to bet a team like Kent that hasn't won on the road since 2022.

My play: No dice
Click to expand...

Might be throwing darts a bit but seems to me both lackluster run games outta get a really big boast from what been pretty terrible run defenses. Ball st qb takes a bunch of sacks but has still produced pretty good rushing totals against better defenses and Kent st has a really low sack rate so played Kelly ov 59.5 rushing. Went with Nubin for Kent st but as I went to bet him thing went up several yards, that usually a sign I’m wrong, that said he been getting dd carries the last 3 weeks. Gotta think if he gets 13-15+ he should go for at least 70 on ball st who allowing 5ypc. Even tho they both been pretty terrible at it they both try and run quite a bit. Should pay off here I hope.
 
Marsski said:
Kent State @ Ball State

This game, ugh.
As was pointed out earlier in this thread by Austin Hous, Kent State hasn't on the road since 2022. They have shown enough life this year including a win last time out as a 7 point dig over BUGS to get their interim coach a permanent gig as the Golden Flashes coach. They seem to have some momentum after taking their lumps against the big boys in the non-conference.
Ball State is a very hard team to read. I watched their game against my Bobcats when they rallied in the second half to beat my boys and I still don't really understand how it happened. By the way, they were running a lot of option and zone read in that game which I'm not sure is their regular offense??
No one can really run the ball here which I think points to both teams looking to throw. I lean to Kent and slightly to the under but I think I'm just going to sit this one out. I don't have a good feel for Ball State and I can't bring myself to bet a team like Kent that hasn't won on the road since 2022.

My play: No dice
Click to expand...


Wouldn't touch this with a free bet at 3/1 odds 😂😂
 
2daBank said:
Might be throwing darts a bit but seems to me both lackluster run games outta get a really big boast from what been pretty terrible run defenses. Ball st qb takes a bunch of sacks but has still produced pretty good rushing totals against better defenses and Kent st has a really low sack rate so played Kelly ov 59.5 rushing. Went with Nubin for Kent st but as I went to bet him thing went up several yards, that usually a sign I’m wrong, that said he been getting dd carries the last 3 weeks. Gotta think if he gets 13-15+ he should go for at least 70 on ball st who allowing 5ypc. Even tho they both been pretty terrible at it they both try and run quite a bit. Should pay off here I hope.
Click to expand...
Yeah the Qb runs it in a good bit in the zone read/option game. Probably would be the one I would choose.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top