***Week 1 Lex***

GL to all this season great to be back at it! As always I'll have Bills thoughts/wagers & reasoning throughout the season. Could be a scary season for them but we shall see

I'll add plays as I go but trying to be more selective to start the season. That being said I have like 10 plays I'm looking into and trying to whittle it down haha.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Ty. A little concern about that but not enough to get me off. Public plays win as well
Click to expand...

Books don’t care if every retard wins tonight or for 2 weeks, they know where the money will eventually end up, just cause we don’t plan on giving back doesn’t mean we can’t dip our hand in cookie jar right?!?!
 
It's finally here!!!!


Bills thoughts

Tons of question marks surrounding the team this season. Who will step up into the wr role for the Bills, will Kincaid make the jump to superstar te? Will Cook build on a pretty strong season and learn to catch the ball better out of the backfield? What is the defense going to look like?

Offensively everyone goes right to the loss of Diggs and I have yet to see anyone (outside of serious Bills fans) mention the switch at center. Morse is now in Jax and McGovern will be at C. I do have concerns as Allen obv hasn't seen a bunch of real in game reps with him- I will be paying attention to the ball exchanges between these two early and hoping they don't have any kinks. David Edwards is the new lg next to Dawkins (beast) also something to watch.

Diggs departure forces them to find a new identity... or does it?

If you watched Buffalo after oc Brady took over you saw them lean HEAVY on the ground game/ball control, especially when all the defensive injuries hit. The drafting of Ray Davis & Keon to me signals they will again be leaning on the run. Keon is a big body wr that can block, a notable trait we def lost with Gabe Davis going to Jax. Nobody really talked about that part of Gabe's game but it's likely the biggest asset he brought to the table. Cook is a solid rb with a ton of upside, but to me is nearly worthless inside the 10. I think Ray Davis ends up becoming the TD vulture more than Allen has done in the past- Allen still going to take off for sure but I think there will be more of an effort to get Ray involved as the season goes on. Kincaid 2nd season I would think he ends up the #1 in targets by a lot. Shakir has shown flashes and I think Allen has built up a ton of trust in him but as an undersized third option I don't know that he ever will get a bunch of targets. Have to remember his emergence largely relied on the fact that every team had to gameplan for Diggs.

I get the feeling that Brady wants to play bully ball. No way this offense will be a finesse type, I think they will look to pound the run early and often. Even with the addition of Samuel it looks to me like they will try and have as many options on the ground as they can. It remains to be seen if they will play more 12 personnel as to me it would create mismatches- Kincaid won't be covered by 90% of linebackers and is bigger than most corners. Knox is still a decent option in the short passing game but it seemed like they never really were as effective as I thought in 2 te sets last season.

Defensively once again the Milano injury sets them back- Bernard is more than capable but the LB depth is scary bad. Feel good story with local guy Adreeson making the team but it's largely due to the fact that BIlls can't afford to get another established LB. Dorian showed some flashes and in his second season should make strides. Morrow should fill in ok... biggest worry would be Bernard going down because after that it's Spector which is scary.

D line will be solid as all 4 starters return- Oliver had a career year and should be huge again. Epenesa has been solid. Von Miller will be in there on obvious 3rd down passing situations and most reports from camp were that he has shown some life. Really hoping he's not just done though last season it sure looked like it. Still waiting on Rousseau to be more consistent but the talent is there.

Corners are solid. I think there's a huge misconception with this secondary. Benford quietly got better and better as the season went on last year. Rasul Douglas was a great pick up without him they prob don't even make the playoffs ly (his injury in the KC game was the biggest loss). Taron J is the best slot corner in football. Now the bad news.
Damar Hamlin starting at FS is TERRIFYING to me and the whole fanbase... I fully expect Cole Bishop to take that spot once he's ready to go.

Hyde/Poyer tandem was a mainstay for the Bills but it was clear they both lost a step, especially Hyde. Really hoping Bishop is a stud long term.
 
Lexington 125 said:
It's finally here!!!!


Bills thoughts

Tons of question marks surrounding the team this season. Who will step up into the wr role for the Bills, will Kincaid make the jump to superstar te? Will Cook build on a pretty strong season and learn to catch the ball better out of the backfield? What is the defense going to look like?

Offensively everyone goes right to the loss of Diggs and I have yet to see anyone (outside of serious Bills fans) mention the switch at center. Morse is now in Jax and McGovern will be at C. I do have concerns as Allen obv hasn't seen a bunch of real in game reps with him- I will be paying attention to the ball exchanges between these two early and hoping they don't have any kinks. David Edwards is the new lg next to Dawkins (beast) also something to watch.

Diggs departure forces them to find a new identity... or does it?

If you watched Buffalo after oc Brady took over you saw them lean HEAVY on the ground game/ball control, especially when all the defensive injuries hit. The drafting of Ray Davis & Keon to me signals they will again be leaning on the run. Keon is a big body wr that can block, a notable trait we def lost with Gabe Davis going to Jax. Nobody really talked about that part of Gabe's game but it's likely the biggest asset he brought to the table. Cook is a solid rb with a ton of upside, but to me is nearly worthless inside the 10. I think Ray Davis ends up becoming the TD vulture more than Allen has done in the past- Allen still going to take off for sure but I think there will be more of an effort to get Ray involved as the season goes on. Kincaid 2nd season I would think he ends up the #1 in targets by a lot. Shakir has shown flashes and I think Allen has built up a ton of trust in him but as an undersized third option I don't know that he ever will get a bunch of targets. Have to remember his emergence largely relied on the fact that every team had to gameplan for Diggs.

I get the feeling that Brady wants to play bully ball. No way this offense will be a finesse type, I think they will look to pound the run early and often. Even with the addition of Samuel it looks to me like they will try and have as many options on the ground as they can. It remains to be seen if they will play more 12 personnel as to me it would create mismatches- Kincaid won't be covered by 90% of linebackers and is bigger than most corners. Knox is still a decent option in the short passing game but it seemed like they never really were as effective as I thought in 2 te sets last season.

Defensively once again the Milano injury sets them back- Bernard is more than capable but the LB depth is scary bad. Feel good story with local guy Adreeson making the team but it's largely due to the fact that BIlls can't afford to get another established LB. Dorian showed some flashes and in his second season should make strides. Morrow should fill in ok... biggest worry would be Bernard going down because after that it's Spector which is scary.

D line will be solid as all 4 starters return- Oliver had a career year and should be huge again. Epenesa has been solid. Von Miller will be in there on obvious 3rd down passing situations and most reports from camp were that he has shown some life. Really hoping he's not just done though last season it sure looked like it. Still waiting on Rousseau to be more consistent but the talent is there.

Corners are solid. I think there's a huge misconception with this secondary. Benford quietly got better and better as the season went on last year. Rasul Douglas was a great pick up without him they prob don't even make the playoffs ly (his injury in the KC game was the biggest loss). Taron J is the best slot corner in football. Now the bad news.
Damar Hamlin starting at FS is TERRIFYING to me and the whole fanbase... I fully expect Cole Bishop to take that spot once he's ready to go.

Hyde/Poyer tandem was a mainstay for the Bills but it was clear they both lost a step, especially Hyde. Really hoping Bishop is a stud long term.
Click to expand...
Like under but I'm still on an ISU high. If Cards can keep it close this will rank top 10 of the best 25 hour period of my life.

GL today Lex
 
General consensus is the Bills take a step back this season and maybe not even make the playoffs. Tons of hurdles to overcome and a tough as nails schedule may make this come to fruition but I wouldn't bet on it!

Josh Allen has gotten better every year to me and to think he doesn't carry this team in his prime is just silly to me. OC Brady took what he had ly and made the best of it. I'm excited to see what he does calling his own full playbook. Allen voted most overrated biggest trash talker no Diggs he's the type to have a real chip on his shoulder. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see him go off.

Matchup vs Cards

Harrison is going to be an absolute beast even if I'm not sold on Murray. Dline will need to get in and disrupt his flow early. McBride could be a matchup problem for Buffalo as he's a tough cover for LBs.

6.5 points looks high with all the question marks for the Bills but this is a west coast team traveling east where they historically have been blown out. Bills home opener in a hostile environment where they aren't expected to dominate and I think they come out with something to prove. Cardinals were terrible against the run and as I said I think the Bills are going to be a running team.

I'm on the Bills -6.5. I think if the Cardinals do cover it goes over by a mile but again I'm predicting ground and pound ball control from Buffalo and a 10+ pt win. Lets goooooooooooooooooo
 
Jefferson yds o74.5/ TD (+205)

Olave yds o64.5/ TD (+270)

James Cook rush & rec o79.5/ Bills 1sth tt o13.5 (+175)

1 unit each



+2500

Cook rush & rec o78.5
McBride o44.5
Kincaid o49.5
Ray Davis TD

half unit

my one SGP for the Bills game. I'd say sub Allen rushing td for Davis for a more likely hit but I like these longshot odds.
 
Ty press!

Bengals-7.5

bears tt o23.5-114

Vikings-120 1sth
1 unit each


+800

Bills-6.5
Bengals-7.5
Bears-4
rams/lions o43

1 unit
 
V close to plays and will prob regret not playing

Bijan -114 td could be the last time under -140

Tyreek o119.5/td +320 cmon take one bomb

Kincaid yds o49.5/ td+163

Keon Coleman o49.5+235 adjusted and one long one gets you there. Will be an adjustment period but Allen is not one to shy away from taking shots!
 
Been watching all week Allen td dropped from -200 to-150. Just enough to suck me in on this small parlay



Allen td-150
Kincaid o49.5
Keon o49.5+235
Bijan td-114
Jonathan Taylor td-190
Tyreek td

+5906
 
Allen didn’t have no whiny ass talented yet annoying wr’s at Wyoming, I think they be ok. I was super tempted to play the over but afraid they control lot of clock, but I think they will be super efficient in red zone so that should make up for it. No clue on cardinals but assume Murray gonna run around and score some points?

Gl lex, always love reading your bills thoughts
 
I shoulda played the over instead the one in Miami where those clown ass teams left bout 20 points on the field, Tua has video game numbers and they gotta kick a last second fg? Oh well. I’m on over again tonight so hope lions hang a 40 spot for ya!
 
2daBank said:
I shoulda played the over instead the one in Miami where those clown ass teams left bout 20 points on the field, Tua has video game numbers and they gotta kick a last second fg? Oh well. I’m on over again tonight so hope lions hang a 40 spot for ya!
Click to expand...
Gl my man
 
I usually am all aboard the fade the sb loser train but something stinks here. 49ers to me still a much better team at home and have been hearing all the jets hype….. I think it’s a statement game 10 pt win. Common sense says defensive battle but I have a feeling it soars. Looking into props
 
Prop wise very hesitant to take anything run related with sf as Trent/cmc performance is an unknown.

I like kittles here might play him to score &yds
 
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