Random thoughts about every game...
Vikings- A ton of talk about the Rams being the same/better at qb without Bradford...he still hasn't started since 2010 so I can't possibly think of it as a good thing Hill is starting. At any rate they are a one dimensional offense, and you can bet Minny will be stacking the box to stuff the run and make Hill prove he can get the ball downfield. Not taking anything away from stacey, but I think we all know who the better rb is. Of course AP will get his, but with Norv at the helm Rudolph will be a top target and if there ever was a year for him to breakout it's this one. I think Minny will be able to work off the play action. In the end I think this is a pretty evenly matched team, so I will go with the dog with the more experienced qb and better all around offense.
Jaguars/Eagles over- simply from a value point of view this opened at 54 and has been bet down. Shorts out hurts the Jaguars offense, and I do think they have an underrated d, but they have been nothing short of abysmal on the road. The line is sky high for a reason, and I think it's not out of the question for the Eagles to have a 21 pt quarter. Hoping the Jaguars can do their part, I am not really too high on the Eagles d to hold anyone in check.
Jets- I think Carr could be a good qb- however I will fade a rookie on the road vs a defense that loves to throw a ton of different looks all day. Front 7 for the Jets imo is underrated, I can see Carr getting harassed today and forced into making mistakes. I think Geno will have a much better season this year, dude finally has a wr that can play in Decker. Silly to think he won't be able to capitalize on the raiders weak secondary- another one where IMO the line is justified.
Ravens- give me the home team to win su in a divisional battle vs a team that IMO overachieved last season. Rice out has zero impact on this game for me..I think this could be a breakout season for Torre Smith now that he has Steve Smith / healthy Pitta for defenders to keep an eye on. Webb likely out hurts this defense, but in the end I'm going with the home team to get the close win.
Bills/Bears- After careful consideration I ended up playing the very public over here. Have some thoughts/reasoning in the discussion thread but basically everyone is down on the Bills offense and EJ is expected to fall flat on his face. Could happen, but I do know Spiller/Fred Jax will be getting a ton of touches vs a defense that no longer instills any fear in offenses. Short 3rd down situations could mean more extended drives for EJ, who really only has to manage the offense and not stare down wrs (he is going to get someone killed). I think you will see a very different offense vs Chicago than you saw in the preseason. I don't think the Bears are worth laying the chalk here, but at the same time the Bills secondary is keeping me away from taking the points. Both qbs have the potential to throw picks that result in short fields, to be fair they can both kill drives too I'm hoping for the former out of Cutler. In the end I think both teams have the potential to get over 23 so over it is.
Chiefs- Better defense, better run game @ home. Titans are a team on the rise but looking at Locker's qb rating on the road I don't see why everyone is so quick to fade the Chiefs d here. Line is short because KC has no standout wr but I think they will do enough to get the win. Could be a low scoring ugly ass affair.
Redskins- Straight of fade of Fitzmagic. If RG3 can't do anything with this offense then I'll tip my cap to the Texans. As it stands I'm getting the better offense with a mobile qb that hopefully can stay away from Watt. The day I play on Fitz as a fave is the day I rip up $100 bills
Seeing a ton of love for the dogged Fins at home. I think they will be a solid wager from time to time this season, but I'm not going to get cute and take a short line vs the Pats here. NE should be able to pound the run and I trust Vereen will get more than the 2 carries he had last time @ Miami. Hate NE but they are still the better team and will find a way to win week 1.
rayer
