I am admittedly not a huge futures guy. Too many things can happen in a season to kill a bet early (injuries, etc etc). With that said, I did delve in a few. Although most are small bets.
Futures:
Baltimore Ravens O 8.5 (-110) ---- 2u
I know it's a college forum, but I figured I'd post this here. This is BY FAR my favorite RSW of college or NFL. Last year the ravens played actually decent despite their heavy offensive injuries, an offensive line that was very sub par, and a very young defense. This year the offensive line was re-tooled in the right ways. Last year, They had 3 good OL, and when one went down that left them with 2. This year they get Osemele back and add in an above average center. RT is the only question and so far Wagner has looked like a Wisconsin road paver. Last year also saw many injuries at the skill positions that left flacco with no time to throw the ball and literally only Torrey Smith to throw it to. This year they add in a healthy Jacoby Jones, Steve Smith, and Pitta is back from injury. Pitta is Flaccos security and he was prob the biggest loss last year aside from Boldin. They also get a new OC in Kubiak and they have a young FB in Juschyck who could emerge into a receiving threat this year as well. The pieces are there for Kubiaks offense. Defensively they are deep on the front 7. They have elite corners, but are thin there. Young talent that I think will start building Bmore back to that elite defense level.
Only way I see this not cashing is if Flacco gets hurt, or possibly if there is a rash of injuries on the OL or secondary. The lack of depth at the CB position is the biggest concern. The Ravens should win 10 or 11 games IMO.
Florida O 8 (+160) ---- 1u
Numerous reasons I like this....hell I like it so much that I bought it up a half point to get rid of the juice. First everyone knows how embarrassing this team was last year...and trust me, this team knows too. Injuries are no excuse to go 4-8, but it's impossible not to look at how many they suffered. Injuries give less experience players reps, and those players are back this year so the team is deeper in some areas. Second, the Kurt Roper hire should be HUGE. Last year I knew people high on Florida, and they said Driskel was going to play to his talent level and their offense would be better. I wasn't one of those bc I was not a Brent Pease fan. Pease gone, Roper in....and now I'll say Driskel will have a big year. A lot of people don't realize that driskel was recruited by Urban Meyer and his offensive scheme....so this offense that roper is bringing in is what Driskel was born to run. The playmakers are there, just need live reps. Demarcus Robinson could have a break through year as well as Fullwood. The backfield is very loaded, prob 4 deep and with 3 guys who can catch out of the backfield. The OL is back healthy after being killed with injuries last year. I do worry considerably about the depth here though.
Defensively....well it's loaded with talent and Muschamp can coach defense. Secondary opposite of VH3 is a question, but keep in mind that last year they played without their top 2 CB's half the year and did fine. The talent is plenty, just need live reps. LB has experience now while it didn't last year. DL is dangerous on the edge, and as long as Orr or Cummings clog the middle (losing Easley last year was the biggest injury they had IMO) it should be dominant. Bottom line....not too much to worry about on defense. It's been offense that holds this team back....but I see that changing this year.
Last thing is schedule. Lots of people say the schedule is brutal, but that's just the way it is when talking about Florida. As long as the SEC is elite, and LSU and FSU are relevant their schedule is going to be difficult. It's actually easier than last years. Aside from FSU, the non-con is a breeze compared to last years. They do have to go to Bama and FSU, but they get South Carolina and LSU at home.
I'll go on a limb and say that driskel will be the best QB in the SEC this year (the conference does lose so many great ones from last year), and they will navigate through the typical tough schedule. Last year injuries happened early and often, as well as numerous players being in trouble (law, school, etc). This year players seem to have their heads out of their asses and focused on football. I won't be surprised to see Florida get through the SEC with 1 loss....optimistic I know.
Auburn U 9.5 (-150) ---- 0.5u
Loved this number when it came out and was even money, but waited bc I'm an idiot and now it's juiced up. It would be a full unit if it wasn't for the juice. Oh well, lesson learned. Look, I think auburn will be better this year than they were last year. But I can't for the life of me overlook all the close games they were fortunate enough to win. Most of these games came at home as well, and this year they go on the road for those games and also draw a tougher all around schedule with SC and K-State. Sure Malzahns offense will still dominate, and it's frustrating to me and I spite it bc it's mainly limited with assignment football and disciplined play. There are reasons offenses like this don't last in the NFL. 1 is bc owners don't want their QB running, and 2 is bc in the nfl there are 10 guys that can do assignment football 90% of the plays, whereas in college a coach is happy to have 4 players that can stick to their assignment consistently.
Bottom Line: Auburn should be a better football team, but I can't overlook their good fortune last year and the brutal schedule this year.
SDSU Aztecs O 6.5 (+180) ---- 0.5u
I wasn't going to bet this when the line was released and it was -140. But since then it's been bet up, so obviously I'm in the minority. Main reason I like this bet is the stability at QB...the first time rocky long has had that in 4 years. The team does lose a lot of depth, but overall it's not that bad aside from the secondary. I have zero worries about Muema moving on....he missed a handful of games last year, Pumphrey did very well as a true frosh, and I see RS frosh Marcus Stamps being the next "great" running back at SDSU. Rocky Long and Bob Toledo have given me zero reason to think they won't find a good running game. The WR's are talented and Ruffin is a stud. OL should be fine as well. Defensively this is the deepest DL long has ever had, literally going 3 deep. I thought the LB's were very underrated by most preview mags, but now I have my concerns. All 3 returning starters have been out for all of preseason with injury (best player Fely isn't due back until mid season), however, 2 of the 3 are due to be cleared Monday. Secondary is a concern....they lose A LOT. On a bright note, it's the most talented group of guys long has fielded here, they just practically have zero experience outside of Whitaker.
Schedule is not favorable. They get UNC and Oregon St (won't be surprised if they win @ OSU) on the road, and also draw Boise, Fresno, Nevada on the road. They get a lot of cupcakes at home, and I think they will find a way to win 1 or possibly 2 against BSU, FSU, and Nev.
Bottom Line: I think offense will be just fine. Defense has questions. The secondary is a problem, but it is also talented for the level of competition they play. I think the DL will help the secondary out by being able to generate some pass rush. I also think that them playing UNC and Oregon St early in the year will help give them valuable reps against quality competition going into conference play, and will help them grow. All in all, this is the most talented group Long has had, and only asking them to get to 7 wins for me to nearly double my money seems like a good bargain.
Florida SEC East (+435) ---- 0.5u
See above
Va Tech ACC Champs (1400) ---- 0.25u
Eh why not I guess. I've grown sick of hearing all the love for FSU (although very well deserved) and crazier things have happened. Seems like good value for a team that I think has a good chance to get back to their big winning ways. Of course a part of this was bc I think Va tech will have a serviceable, more dependable QB (I believed Michael Brewer was the real deal) and I'm honestly not hearing all that great of news about the QB's coming out of fall camp....of course this could be part due to the defense being very good.
Houston AAC (+300) ---- 0.5u
I went into my season prep not high on Houston. Too many turnovers forced by the defense and that luck won't continue. And even though this is true, the defense does return practically in tact and should be even better in other areas to combat this. Another area to combat it is the offense. John O'Korn was a freshman last year for goodness sake, and they return plenty around him both in the run game and receiving. I'm not as high on UCF as most publications are, and I will continue to think Cincy is a fraud until they actually play a respectable schedule....and Tommy Tubs pisses me off.
Toledo MAC (+315) ---- 0.5u
I think they are the best team in the Mac so why not?? They are loaded everywhere and have so much coming back.......except QB......Oops lol. That could be a problem but I think whoever wins the job will be serviceable enough, especially with all the help they will have all over the field. I literally, totally, fully have a hard on for Toledo this year
