TroyStacks
18" Pythons
My goal this season is to play with discipline just in case of another wacky season. I will upmy unit value and select no more than 5 games tops. I will not play any parlays or teasers (tough to resist). I will be smarter and better capper than ever before....
Week 1 I will focus on vetrran teams playing against less veteran squads. I want to focus on the simple things early especially strong rushing offenses going against weak rushing defensive teams. In cases of great offenses versus great defenses I will look for a dog play on the defense.
Clem
Bama
*We have a running team in Clemson going against a solid defense in Bama with holes in the DL. This should allow Clemson to get to the next level with their very solid OL nearly every play with their "Thunder and Lightning" backfield. I think the chance we see this game under a TD favorite for Clemson I will have to jump on it right away. Bama returns 9 starters on offense and a very good OL. If for some reason we see DD Bama would have to be the play especially with intagibles such as coaching for one. Overall I think Clemson should run all day on Bamas less than vetrean front 7.
Haw
UF
*UF has won L10 openers by 36ppg going against a team that returns only 8 starters. UF return 8 on each side of the ball. I would think anything under 3TDs would be a gift here being at home and with a revamped RB core lead by Moody (sick) and with all the weapons Tebow has not to mention the defense will e improved with a healthy Spikes in the middle to stop the run, Florida shoudl win this by 5 TDs easily. 1H bet of -17 would be nice too.
NCST
SC
*SC returns a lot of starters (17) and a huge OL(avg weight 310) which should help the running which in turn will allow for PA passes and help the improved WR corps. Now lets look at the OL v. NCST DL. 310lbs against a small 270lbs DL. This is a matchup I like a lot. That and the inexperience of the wolfpacks LBs I will bet Spurrier has some tricks up his sleeve for this game to freeze the LBs and let Smelley complette some early passes that will open up the deep ball in the 4th. I want to see -4 but Liekly will get to -6/-7 range.
KY
Lou
*KY lost a ton on offense last year which is the only reason why they were worth a damn. New QB= early struggles on offense. Cantwell for Lou has experinece and a good OL to work with and a solid running game. You have returning players to catch the ball and are accustomed to Kragthorpes offense now. I worry slightly taht KY has a pretty good defensive backfield which may cause a few early season problems for Lou is this game. I would say value here is set at a TD+ for KY as a dog. If its less than Cards have to be the play. Also maybe an UNDER look if the numbers are right.
Utah
UM
*Plain and simple weaker conf on road against a team with first year coach and only 3 starters on offense. Yes UM defense will be solid but they can't score. Gimme Utah+ pts and ML.
Ill
Mizz
*Looking at the OVER here anything over 55 here this has 42-38 either way written all over it.
FAU
Tex
*Texas beats down the Sun Belt every year (minus last years bullshit) haha. Under 4TDs I'll be on it easy money right Horn?
ASU
TAMU
*Difficult game here to cap without a line. You have 2 good running teams facing off with QB edge to TAMU. However both teams have questionable OL and hoels on defense. TAMU should roll by 2 TDs but the spread will likely hit -21+. I think this game will have backdoor all over it but also this maybe an OVER play with inexperienced OL and weak/questionable defensive holes.
FIU
KU
*LY won 55-3. Don't expect that big of a blowout but anything around 4TDs I will likely play. Too much firepower and with a tough schedule for the Jayhawks (USF,OU,TT,Texas) they need wins wherever they can get them in order not to become the exact 180 of last year.
Col
CSU
*These teams play very close every year. Spread should be around -4 for Col which would lean there with the experience of that squad over the younger Rams team. Looking for a total OVER play at 52/53 or better as these teams each typically scorearound 4 TDs a piece lets just wait and see on this game.
ECU
VT
*Interesting stat I found but ECU is 5-1 ATS as a DD dog. We migth have our first dog play of the year. Glennon is a chotch and sucks ass for fun. ECU has a solid QB and great recievers. VT will not have a dominant defens elike in past years as they lost a ton to the Niffel(rigth rexy). Give me points against the Hokies go Pirates!
USC
UVA
*USC nuff said anything 1H maybe game under -24. Too much for an inexperienced OL and new QB to handle. Speed all over v. under achieving Groh team. Money!
BG
Pitt
*Looking for an UNDER play here as Pitt has a good run game and should be able to dominate the front lines with their size. Lots of clock chewed up and not very explosive on offense. BG has a good defense so we see the clock run the whole game with punts and runs.
Fresno
Rutgers
*Fresno +anything I think their 17 returning starters should be enough and with an explosive offense I think they could pull the upset at Piskataway (BRoooooooooo)
-Will update as I have the time and read through Steele among other publications
Week 1 I will focus on vetrran teams playing against less veteran squads. I want to focus on the simple things early especially strong rushing offenses going against weak rushing defensive teams. In cases of great offenses versus great defenses I will look for a dog play on the defense.
Clem
Bama
*We have a running team in Clemson going against a solid defense in Bama with holes in the DL. This should allow Clemson to get to the next level with their very solid OL nearly every play with their "Thunder and Lightning" backfield. I think the chance we see this game under a TD favorite for Clemson I will have to jump on it right away. Bama returns 9 starters on offense and a very good OL. If for some reason we see DD Bama would have to be the play especially with intagibles such as coaching for one. Overall I think Clemson should run all day on Bamas less than vetrean front 7.
Haw
UF
*UF has won L10 openers by 36ppg going against a team that returns only 8 starters. UF return 8 on each side of the ball. I would think anything under 3TDs would be a gift here being at home and with a revamped RB core lead by Moody (sick) and with all the weapons Tebow has not to mention the defense will e improved with a healthy Spikes in the middle to stop the run, Florida shoudl win this by 5 TDs easily. 1H bet of -17 would be nice too.
NCST
SC
*SC returns a lot of starters (17) and a huge OL(avg weight 310) which should help the running which in turn will allow for PA passes and help the improved WR corps. Now lets look at the OL v. NCST DL. 310lbs against a small 270lbs DL. This is a matchup I like a lot. That and the inexperience of the wolfpacks LBs I will bet Spurrier has some tricks up his sleeve for this game to freeze the LBs and let Smelley complette some early passes that will open up the deep ball in the 4th. I want to see -4 but Liekly will get to -6/-7 range.
KY
Lou
*KY lost a ton on offense last year which is the only reason why they were worth a damn. New QB= early struggles on offense. Cantwell for Lou has experinece and a good OL to work with and a solid running game. You have returning players to catch the ball and are accustomed to Kragthorpes offense now. I worry slightly taht KY has a pretty good defensive backfield which may cause a few early season problems for Lou is this game. I would say value here is set at a TD+ for KY as a dog. If its less than Cards have to be the play. Also maybe an UNDER look if the numbers are right.
Utah
UM
*Plain and simple weaker conf on road against a team with first year coach and only 3 starters on offense. Yes UM defense will be solid but they can't score. Gimme Utah+ pts and ML.
Ill
Mizz
*Looking at the OVER here anything over 55 here this has 42-38 either way written all over it.
FAU
Tex
*Texas beats down the Sun Belt every year (minus last years bullshit) haha. Under 4TDs I'll be on it easy money right Horn?
ASU
TAMU
*Difficult game here to cap without a line. You have 2 good running teams facing off with QB edge to TAMU. However both teams have questionable OL and hoels on defense. TAMU should roll by 2 TDs but the spread will likely hit -21+. I think this game will have backdoor all over it but also this maybe an OVER play with inexperienced OL and weak/questionable defensive holes.
FIU
KU
*LY won 55-3. Don't expect that big of a blowout but anything around 4TDs I will likely play. Too much firepower and with a tough schedule for the Jayhawks (USF,OU,TT,Texas) they need wins wherever they can get them in order not to become the exact 180 of last year.
Col
CSU
*These teams play very close every year. Spread should be around -4 for Col which would lean there with the experience of that squad over the younger Rams team. Looking for a total OVER play at 52/53 or better as these teams each typically scorearound 4 TDs a piece lets just wait and see on this game.
ECU
VT
*Interesting stat I found but ECU is 5-1 ATS as a DD dog. We migth have our first dog play of the year. Glennon is a chotch and sucks ass for fun. ECU has a solid QB and great recievers. VT will not have a dominant defens elike in past years as they lost a ton to the Niffel(rigth rexy). Give me points against the Hokies go Pirates!
USC
UVA
*USC nuff said anything 1H maybe game under -24. Too much for an inexperienced OL and new QB to handle. Speed all over v. under achieving Groh team. Money!
BG
Pitt
*Looking for an UNDER play here as Pitt has a good run game and should be able to dominate the front lines with their size. Lots of clock chewed up and not very explosive on offense. BG has a good defense so we see the clock run the whole game with punts and runs.
Fresno
Rutgers
*Fresno +anything I think their 17 returning starters should be enough and with an explosive offense I think they could pull the upset at Piskataway (BRoooooooooo)
-Will update as I have the time and read through Steele among other publications
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