TNF: Eagles
Philadelphia’s fourth-best defense—in terms of points allowed per game—returns largely in tact. Philly can make Atlanta one-dimensional on offense and make quarterback Matt Ryan uncomfortable. The Eagles’ d-line ranked sixth in power rate and second in stuff rate and add Michael Bennett from Seattle. Philly’s run defense ranked first in opposing rush yards. Its d-line can control Atlanta's o-line, which ranked in the bottom half in power and stuff rates and remains largely the same. The betting significance here is that Atlanta’s leading rusher averaged 62 yards in its six regular season losses, but produced over 80 in eight out of 10 wins.
Additionally, Philadelphia’s defensive coordinator is known for bringing pressure and Ryan has consistently produced poor numbers under duress throughout his career. On offense, the Eagles’ ability to control the run game with Jay Ajayi, who averaged 5.8 YPC as an Eagle last season and is entering the final year of his contract, will keep the pressure off of quarterback Nick Foles and allow Philly to control time of possession.
SNF: Packers
The Bears have lost by double digits in their past two visits to Lambeau Field. I don’t think it matters that, this year, Chicago’s quarterback is Mitch Trubisky. He attempted 18 passes during preseason even though he already lacks experience and will be surrounded by four new receivers. It takes time for a quarterback and his receivers to develop chemistry and Trubisky hasn’t gotten this time yet. Combined with a lackluster rush attack that averaged 3.9 YPC on the road, I don’t foresee much offense from Chicago.
Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers has owned the Bears at home, where his career passer rating is 10.5 points higher than on the road. In his past two home games against them, he threw seven touchdowns to zero interceptions despite completing nearly 70 percent of his passes. He benefits from an offensive line that’s finally healthy and features two of the best tackles in Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari.
EAGLES: Philadelphia’s top-tier defense returns nearly in tact. It will limit Atlanta’s offense by achieving supremacy in the trenches. On offense, it will control the clock with a healthy Jay Ajayi
BROWNS: The Browns will be hard to score many points against. They complemented their strong run defense with a huge upgrade in the secondary. On offense, quarterback Tyrod Taylor excels at avoiding turnovers. The Browns have depth at running back, which will help them control the clock.
BENGALS: Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck will be healthy. But he hasn’t played since 2016 and will be rusty. Meanwhile, Cincy’s secondary ranked eighth in terms of opposing passing yards and features continuity in personnel plus depth added in the offseason.
TITANS: I don’t trust a rusty Ryan Tannehill against a massively retooled Tennessee secondary that features Malcolm Butler from New England. Conversely, Miami’s defense doesn’t look any better from the one that struggled to achieve turnovers and prevent scoring last season.
VIKINGS: San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo’s came out of nowhere in the second half of last season and has generated massive hype. But Minnesota has had an entire offseason to prepare for him and boasts the fifth-best secondary in terms of opposing pass yards.
TEXANS: Houston is undervalued. With the return of Romeo Crennel at defensive coordinator and superstar J.J. Watt, the Texans are primed to become a top-tier defense again. Quarterback Deshaun Watson is also healthy and will build on his strong numbers from last season.
SAINTS: Tampa Bay’s defense has to improve vastly after struggling to prevent first downs and to create havoc in the backfield. Tampa Bay was Drew Brees’ favorite opponent last season in terms of passer rating and Brees will benefit from having a deep and talented receiving crew.
GIANTS: The Jaguars struggled mightily against teams like Tennessee and Arizona that stayed away from 11 personnel (three wide receiver). New York’s new offensive coordinator comes from Carolina, which rarely employed 11 personnel.
RAVENS: Buffalo will field an inexperienced quarterback. He won’t be ready for Baltimore’s elite secondary that accumulated 22 interceptions and regularly shut down opposing quarterbacks despite enduring multiple injuries.
CHARGERS: San Diego is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six season openers. The Chiefs retooled their entire secondary, including allowing their best cornerback to depart. Meanwhile, San Diego is stacked at receiver, led by two 1,000-yard receivers in Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams.
BRONCOS: Seattle’s once-famed defense has lost its key components. Meanwhile, Denver’s pass attack will be revitalized thanks to newly acquired Case Keenum and a healthy Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.
CARDINALS: The Redskins have lost three of their past four season openers by double digits, failing to cover in each of them. Arizona’s defense enjoyed a huge advantage at home and will stop a Redskins offense that’s trying to incorporate many new pieces in key positions.
PANTHERS: Dallas’ offense won’t keep up. It lost superstar tight end Jason Witten and its top receiver Dez Bryant. Carolina’s defensive line ranked top five in power and stuff rate, so it will be tough to run on.
PACKERS: The Bears are trying to force their inexperienced quarterback to gel quickly with four new receivers, but chemistry just won’t happen quickly enough. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers and his o-line are healthy. Rodgers has put up prolific numbers against Chicago at home in recent years.
JETS: Detroit’s defense was one of the worst in points and yards allowed. The Jets have zero expectations to burden them and will surprise with their depth at running back and an impressive Sam Darnold at quarterback.
RAMS: Oakland’s bottom-ranked defense is rebuilding. Losing Khalik Mack won’t help, either. The Rams feature superstars at quarterback and running back, depth at wide receiver, and a stacked defense of their own with sundry new additions.
Philadelphia’s fourth-best defense—in terms of points allowed per game—returns largely in tact. Philly can make Atlanta one-dimensional on offense and make quarterback Matt Ryan uncomfortable. The Eagles’ d-line ranked sixth in power rate and second in stuff rate and add Michael Bennett from Seattle. Philly’s run defense ranked first in opposing rush yards. Its d-line can control Atlanta's o-line, which ranked in the bottom half in power and stuff rates and remains largely the same. The betting significance here is that Atlanta’s leading rusher averaged 62 yards in its six regular season losses, but produced over 80 in eight out of 10 wins.
Additionally, Philadelphia’s defensive coordinator is known for bringing pressure and Ryan has consistently produced poor numbers under duress throughout his career. On offense, the Eagles’ ability to control the run game with Jay Ajayi, who averaged 5.8 YPC as an Eagle last season and is entering the final year of his contract, will keep the pressure off of quarterback Nick Foles and allow Philly to control time of possession.
SNF: Packers
The Bears have lost by double digits in their past two visits to Lambeau Field. I don’t think it matters that, this year, Chicago’s quarterback is Mitch Trubisky. He attempted 18 passes during preseason even though he already lacks experience and will be surrounded by four new receivers. It takes time for a quarterback and his receivers to develop chemistry and Trubisky hasn’t gotten this time yet. Combined with a lackluster rush attack that averaged 3.9 YPC on the road, I don’t foresee much offense from Chicago.
Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers has owned the Bears at home, where his career passer rating is 10.5 points higher than on the road. In his past two home games against them, he threw seven touchdowns to zero interceptions despite completing nearly 70 percent of his passes. He benefits from an offensive line that’s finally healthy and features two of the best tackles in Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari.
EAGLES: Philadelphia’s top-tier defense returns nearly in tact. It will limit Atlanta’s offense by achieving supremacy in the trenches. On offense, it will control the clock with a healthy Jay Ajayi
BROWNS: The Browns will be hard to score many points against. They complemented their strong run defense with a huge upgrade in the secondary. On offense, quarterback Tyrod Taylor excels at avoiding turnovers. The Browns have depth at running back, which will help them control the clock.
BENGALS: Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck will be healthy. But he hasn’t played since 2016 and will be rusty. Meanwhile, Cincy’s secondary ranked eighth in terms of opposing passing yards and features continuity in personnel plus depth added in the offseason.
TITANS: I don’t trust a rusty Ryan Tannehill against a massively retooled Tennessee secondary that features Malcolm Butler from New England. Conversely, Miami’s defense doesn’t look any better from the one that struggled to achieve turnovers and prevent scoring last season.
VIKINGS: San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo’s came out of nowhere in the second half of last season and has generated massive hype. But Minnesota has had an entire offseason to prepare for him and boasts the fifth-best secondary in terms of opposing pass yards.
TEXANS: Houston is undervalued. With the return of Romeo Crennel at defensive coordinator and superstar J.J. Watt, the Texans are primed to become a top-tier defense again. Quarterback Deshaun Watson is also healthy and will build on his strong numbers from last season.
SAINTS: Tampa Bay’s defense has to improve vastly after struggling to prevent first downs and to create havoc in the backfield. Tampa Bay was Drew Brees’ favorite opponent last season in terms of passer rating and Brees will benefit from having a deep and talented receiving crew.
GIANTS: The Jaguars struggled mightily against teams like Tennessee and Arizona that stayed away from 11 personnel (three wide receiver). New York’s new offensive coordinator comes from Carolina, which rarely employed 11 personnel.
RAVENS: Buffalo will field an inexperienced quarterback. He won’t be ready for Baltimore’s elite secondary that accumulated 22 interceptions and regularly shut down opposing quarterbacks despite enduring multiple injuries.
CHARGERS: San Diego is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six season openers. The Chiefs retooled their entire secondary, including allowing their best cornerback to depart. Meanwhile, San Diego is stacked at receiver, led by two 1,000-yard receivers in Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams.
BRONCOS: Seattle’s once-famed defense has lost its key components. Meanwhile, Denver’s pass attack will be revitalized thanks to newly acquired Case Keenum and a healthy Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.
CARDINALS: The Redskins have lost three of their past four season openers by double digits, failing to cover in each of them. Arizona’s defense enjoyed a huge advantage at home and will stop a Redskins offense that’s trying to incorporate many new pieces in key positions.
PANTHERS: Dallas’ offense won’t keep up. It lost superstar tight end Jason Witten and its top receiver Dez Bryant. Carolina’s defensive line ranked top five in power and stuff rate, so it will be tough to run on.
PACKERS: The Bears are trying to force their inexperienced quarterback to gel quickly with four new receivers, but chemistry just won’t happen quickly enough. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers and his o-line are healthy. Rodgers has put up prolific numbers against Chicago at home in recent years.
JETS: Detroit’s defense was one of the worst in points and yards allowed. The Jets have zero expectations to burden them and will surprise with their depth at running back and an impressive Sam Darnold at quarterback.
RAMS: Oakland’s bottom-ranked defense is rebuilding. Losing Khalik Mack won’t help, either. The Rams feature superstars at quarterback and running back, depth at wide receiver, and a stacked defense of their own with sundry new additions.
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