Week 1 NFL Value Picks For Today
As Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season approaches, we already look to toss aside some of the idols of last season.
In looking for Week 1 value, our favorite targets to bet against are those teams that enjoy too much positive perception from the public. Conversely, we look to back those teams that are flying under the radar and, at least today, enjoy salivating match-up advantages.
Without further ado, let’s hunt for betting value.
Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers
(Rams -2, o/u 50)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
Some would say that the Rams should worry about suffering a Super Bowl hangover. But I don’t believe in myths. What I am worried about is the condition of Todd Gurley, who’s surrounded by injury concerns and could be rusty, and of wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who’s coming off an ACL tear that ended his previous season.
But the biggest obstacle to the Rams’ offensive flow in this game will be a Panther front seven directed by All-Pro middle linebacker Luke Kuechly that will face insufficient resistance from a fairly new group of Ram blockers.
Now figure in a few Panther playmakers who won’t encounter a similarly formidable defense — i’m thinking of Cam Newton, Christian McCaffrey, and Curtis Samuel.
Panthers pull off the upset 27-20.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
(Eagles -10, o/u 44.5)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
10 points may sound like a lot. But they shouldn’t when you consider how difficult the Redskins will find it to move the ball. They’ll trot out a veteran quarterback who’s new to the team. Case Keenum lacks a primary go-to receiver and reliable protection. Plus, tight end Jordan Reed, who suffered a concussion during the preseason, is listed as ‚questionable.‘
Washington’s offense will struggle to keep time of possession. As a result, its defense will suffer by having to stay on the field too long. In particular, the secondary looks lackluster after Josh Norman and Landon Collins. They won’t contain Philadelphia’s multi-faceted passing attack.
Eagles win 31-13 and cover the spread.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
(Jets -2.5, o/u 40.5)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Sure, the Jets’ offense has the higher-profile players such as Le’Veon Bell. But consider that Bell sat out all of last season and didn’t see a single preseason snap. He will be rusty. Even if he somehow weren’t rusty, he’ll struggle behind an offensive line that is vastly inferior in quality to the one that he ran behind in Pittsburgh.
On the other side, Buffalo retooled its protection unit, which will finally keep Josh Allen from running for his life. He’ll still be a formidable scrambler against a Jets front seven that misses two key linebackers. Also expect some deep bombs to one of multiple Buffalo speedsters at wide receiver.
Bills win straight-up 20-17.
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
(Vikings -4, o/u 47)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
It may be easy to write off the Falcons’ offense after its last two underwhelming seasons. But the importance of having a good offensive coordinator is too easily underestimated. Atlanta’s last one is back in the college ranks where he belongs. Now enter — or rather re-enter — Dirk Koetter who already has a very positive history in working with Matt Ryan.
Ryan will klick under his old and new coordinator and the trio consisting of himself, elite receiver Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley will be too much for Minnesota’s defense to handle in this game.
Falcons win straight-up 24-21.
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
(Ravens -6.5, o/u 39.5)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Miami seems to have given up on this season because it let many of its best players find new teams. Two examples are its best offensive lineman last season, left tackle Laremy Tunsil, who’s now a Texan, and its secondary’s top tackler Larry McDonald.
While Baltimore lost some famous pieces of its own, it still possesses enough on both sides of the ball. Mark Ingram III is one of multiple Raven backs who will do damage to a Dolphin front seven that allowed 4.8 YPC last season.
On the other side, Baltimore will still have a strong run defense led by two of PFF’s highest-graded interior defenders and its pass defense should be even more effective.
The Dolphins will really struggle to score in this game behind a lower-quality offensive line and a quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick who will do nothing without Dirk Koetter as his offensive coordinator.
Ravens win 20-7 and cover the spread
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
(Chiefs -3.5, o/u 51)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Jacksonville’s offense will feature two key players who missed last year’s 30-14 loss to these Chiefs. Look out for Nick Foles and Leonard Fournette to lead a balanced offensive attack. By winning the battle for time of possession, they’ll keep Kansas City’s offense on the sidelines where it can’t develop a rhythm and can’t score.
And who on the Chiefs’ offense can really challenge an elite Jacksonville defense? Patrick Mahomes, who had his lowest quarterback rating against these Jaguars, even though the Chiefs easily accrued more time of possession? Tyreek Hill, who was mostly blanketed by Jalen Ramsey? Look for the Jaguars’ front seven, featuring potential top defensive rookie Josh Allen, and their pair of top cornerbacks to keep the Chiefs’ offense in check.
Jaguars win straight-up 21-20.
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns
(Browns -5.5, o/u 45)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Cleveland is receiving a lot of hype and, on paper, much of it is justified. One thing I have a problem with is the assumption that Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr. will instantly develop chemistry when that takes time.
What I think will top headlines today is actually the Titan defense. Tennessee’s pass rush was average last year, but look for it to skyrocket behind Harold Landry, who was PFF’s top rookie edge defender in last year’s final three games. Another noteworthy young defender is Rashaan Evans, who was PFF’s third-best linebacker after Week 12, right behind Luke Kuechly.
Tennessee’s secondary was already one of the best last year, finishing eight in opposing passer rating. And it will keep Baker and Odell in check in today’s game.
Titans win straight-up 17-16.
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers
(Chargers -6, o/u 44.5)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 4.05 p.m. ET, CBS.
It is asking a lot of Jacoby Brissett to take over for Andrew Luck and succeed against one of last year’s top passing defenses. But it’s also asking a lot of the Chargers to rely on another running back than Melvin Gordon, who’s still holding out, and to expect the same quality from their secondary without the injured Derwin James.
Indianapolis has a budding defense that promises to surprise many this year with its group of young, rising stars. Its led by last year’s Defensive Rookie of The Year Darius Leonard. Cornerback Kenny Moore, one of the NFL’s best slot defenders based on opposing passer rating, is a staple in the secondary. Defensive tackle Denico Autry looks to build off his six-sack effort in December.
Colts win straight-up 21-20.
Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks
(Seahawks -9, o/u 44.5)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 4.05 p.m. ET, CBS.
Missing A.J. Green is a huge deal to Cincinnati’s offense. Last year, the Bengals lost all three November games that Andy Dalton played in without Green, failing to score more than 21 points every time.
On the other side, former Pro Bowler Vontaze Burfict leaves a linebacking group without much quality with which to limit Seattle’s running game. The Seahawks are deep at running back and like to use the ground attack to control tempo and establish a rhythm. Russell Wilson is pretty good, too.
Seahawks win 24-13 and cover the spread.
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(Buccaneers -1.5, o/u 51)
Tampa Bay’s passing attack will not be so productive without Koetter at offensive coordinator. The team will also miss having a decent backup for Jameis Winston, who is not a franchise quarterback.
But the team’s biggest problem will be its offensive line. The Bucs have a group of talented receivers led by Mike Evans. But it will lack sufficient protection to keep Winston upright long enough for his receivers to get open. San Francisco boasts a nasty pass rush led by numerous first-rounders like Nick Bosa and former Chief Dee Ford.
On the other side, Tampa Bay still suffers from one of the league’s worst defenses. It’s the perfect opponent for Jimmy G to get on track against.
49ers win straight-up 28-20.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
(Cowboys -7, o/u 45.5)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.
Today will mark Dallas’ fifth consecutive victory against the Giants. New York is a shell of its self from last year, which is saying a lot for a 5-11 team that finished last in its division. The Giants miss Odell Beckham Jr. Plus, Golden Tate (suspension) and Corey Coleman (torn ACL) won’t be available to help out an offense that will still (but for how much longer?) be led by Eli Manning.
New York’s defense will also miss important playmakers like Landon Collins and Olivier Vernon. It has too many holes to stop Zeke Elliot and Amari Cooper, both of whom Dak Prescott is absolutely reliant on to put up good numbers.
Cowboys win 31-17 and cover the spread.
As Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season approaches, we already look to toss aside some of the idols of last season.
In looking for Week 1 value, our favorite targets to bet against are those teams that enjoy too much positive perception from the public. Conversely, we look to back those teams that are flying under the radar and, at least today, enjoy salivating match-up advantages.
Without further ado, let’s hunt for betting value.
Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers
(Rams -2, o/u 50)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
Some would say that the Rams should worry about suffering a Super Bowl hangover. But I don’t believe in myths. What I am worried about is the condition of Todd Gurley, who’s surrounded by injury concerns and could be rusty, and of wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who’s coming off an ACL tear that ended his previous season.
But the biggest obstacle to the Rams’ offensive flow in this game will be a Panther front seven directed by All-Pro middle linebacker Luke Kuechly that will face insufficient resistance from a fairly new group of Ram blockers.
Now figure in a few Panther playmakers who won’t encounter a similarly formidable defense — i’m thinking of Cam Newton, Christian McCaffrey, and Curtis Samuel.
Panthers pull off the upset 27-20.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
(Eagles -10, o/u 44.5)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
10 points may sound like a lot. But they shouldn’t when you consider how difficult the Redskins will find it to move the ball. They’ll trot out a veteran quarterback who’s new to the team. Case Keenum lacks a primary go-to receiver and reliable protection. Plus, tight end Jordan Reed, who suffered a concussion during the preseason, is listed as ‚questionable.‘
Washington’s offense will struggle to keep time of possession. As a result, its defense will suffer by having to stay on the field too long. In particular, the secondary looks lackluster after Josh Norman and Landon Collins. They won’t contain Philadelphia’s multi-faceted passing attack.
Eagles win 31-13 and cover the spread.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
(Jets -2.5, o/u 40.5)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Sure, the Jets’ offense has the higher-profile players such as Le’Veon Bell. But consider that Bell sat out all of last season and didn’t see a single preseason snap. He will be rusty. Even if he somehow weren’t rusty, he’ll struggle behind an offensive line that is vastly inferior in quality to the one that he ran behind in Pittsburgh.
On the other side, Buffalo retooled its protection unit, which will finally keep Josh Allen from running for his life. He’ll still be a formidable scrambler against a Jets front seven that misses two key linebackers. Also expect some deep bombs to one of multiple Buffalo speedsters at wide receiver.
Bills win straight-up 20-17.
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
(Vikings -4, o/u 47)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
It may be easy to write off the Falcons’ offense after its last two underwhelming seasons. But the importance of having a good offensive coordinator is too easily underestimated. Atlanta’s last one is back in the college ranks where he belongs. Now enter — or rather re-enter — Dirk Koetter who already has a very positive history in working with Matt Ryan.
Ryan will klick under his old and new coordinator and the trio consisting of himself, elite receiver Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley will be too much for Minnesota’s defense to handle in this game.
Falcons win straight-up 24-21.
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
(Ravens -6.5, o/u 39.5)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Miami seems to have given up on this season because it let many of its best players find new teams. Two examples are its best offensive lineman last season, left tackle Laremy Tunsil, who’s now a Texan, and its secondary’s top tackler Larry McDonald.
While Baltimore lost some famous pieces of its own, it still possesses enough on both sides of the ball. Mark Ingram III is one of multiple Raven backs who will do damage to a Dolphin front seven that allowed 4.8 YPC last season.
On the other side, Baltimore will still have a strong run defense led by two of PFF’s highest-graded interior defenders and its pass defense should be even more effective.
The Dolphins will really struggle to score in this game behind a lower-quality offensive line and a quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick who will do nothing without Dirk Koetter as his offensive coordinator.
Ravens win 20-7 and cover the spread
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
(Chiefs -3.5, o/u 51)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Jacksonville’s offense will feature two key players who missed last year’s 30-14 loss to these Chiefs. Look out for Nick Foles and Leonard Fournette to lead a balanced offensive attack. By winning the battle for time of possession, they’ll keep Kansas City’s offense on the sidelines where it can’t develop a rhythm and can’t score.
And who on the Chiefs’ offense can really challenge an elite Jacksonville defense? Patrick Mahomes, who had his lowest quarterback rating against these Jaguars, even though the Chiefs easily accrued more time of possession? Tyreek Hill, who was mostly blanketed by Jalen Ramsey? Look for the Jaguars’ front seven, featuring potential top defensive rookie Josh Allen, and their pair of top cornerbacks to keep the Chiefs’ offense in check.
Jaguars win straight-up 21-20.
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns
(Browns -5.5, o/u 45)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Cleveland is receiving a lot of hype and, on paper, much of it is justified. One thing I have a problem with is the assumption that Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr. will instantly develop chemistry when that takes time.
What I think will top headlines today is actually the Titan defense. Tennessee’s pass rush was average last year, but look for it to skyrocket behind Harold Landry, who was PFF’s top rookie edge defender in last year’s final three games. Another noteworthy young defender is Rashaan Evans, who was PFF’s third-best linebacker after Week 12, right behind Luke Kuechly.
Tennessee’s secondary was already one of the best last year, finishing eight in opposing passer rating. And it will keep Baker and Odell in check in today’s game.
Titans win straight-up 17-16.
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers
(Chargers -6, o/u 44.5)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 4.05 p.m. ET, CBS.
It is asking a lot of Jacoby Brissett to take over for Andrew Luck and succeed against one of last year’s top passing defenses. But it’s also asking a lot of the Chargers to rely on another running back than Melvin Gordon, who’s still holding out, and to expect the same quality from their secondary without the injured Derwin James.
Indianapolis has a budding defense that promises to surprise many this year with its group of young, rising stars. Its led by last year’s Defensive Rookie of The Year Darius Leonard. Cornerback Kenny Moore, one of the NFL’s best slot defenders based on opposing passer rating, is a staple in the secondary. Defensive tackle Denico Autry looks to build off his six-sack effort in December.
Colts win straight-up 21-20.
Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks
(Seahawks -9, o/u 44.5)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 4.05 p.m. ET, CBS.
Missing A.J. Green is a huge deal to Cincinnati’s offense. Last year, the Bengals lost all three November games that Andy Dalton played in without Green, failing to score more than 21 points every time.
On the other side, former Pro Bowler Vontaze Burfict leaves a linebacking group without much quality with which to limit Seattle’s running game. The Seahawks are deep at running back and like to use the ground attack to control tempo and establish a rhythm. Russell Wilson is pretty good, too.
Seahawks win 24-13 and cover the spread.
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(Buccaneers -1.5, o/u 51)
Tampa Bay’s passing attack will not be so productive without Koetter at offensive coordinator. The team will also miss having a decent backup for Jameis Winston, who is not a franchise quarterback.
But the team’s biggest problem will be its offensive line. The Bucs have a group of talented receivers led by Mike Evans. But it will lack sufficient protection to keep Winston upright long enough for his receivers to get open. San Francisco boasts a nasty pass rush led by numerous first-rounders like Nick Bosa and former Chief Dee Ford.
On the other side, Tampa Bay still suffers from one of the league’s worst defenses. It’s the perfect opponent for Jimmy G to get on track against.
49ers win straight-up 28-20.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
(Cowboys -7, o/u 45.5)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.
Today will mark Dallas’ fifth consecutive victory against the Giants. New York is a shell of its self from last year, which is saying a lot for a 5-11 team that finished last in its division. The Giants miss Odell Beckham Jr. Plus, Golden Tate (suspension) and Corey Coleman (torn ACL) won’t be available to help out an offense that will still (but for how much longer?) be led by Eli Manning.
New York’s defense will also miss important playmakers like Landon Collins and Olivier Vernon. It has too many holes to stop Zeke Elliot and Amari Cooper, both of whom Dak Prescott is absolutely reliant on to put up good numbers.
Cowboys win 31-17 and cover the spread.
