Week 1 First Draft Spreads and Totals - possible spoiler inside

T

TheGarfather

Pretty much a regular
I get that some folks don't like to see other people's numbers due to bias. If that describes you, time to exit.

This is what I came up with based on reading so far this year and just shear knowledge of following all the teams last year. These will bob and weave as we get closer, but for now in late May I'm putting them out there and won't be embarrassed, so fire away. I am probably weakest on the totals as changes of offensive pace are often not apparent until August in spite of what gets said by coaches in spring.

I am well aware of the openers at SP and 5D, I've bet 10 of them and have value on 8, neutral on 1, and down .5 on the other. I am not really interested in being told I'm 10 points off from the current number, because you should ASSume I already know that. I'm just fishing for opinions at this point. If I didn't feel strongly enough about my view of the teams or matchup then I just defaulted to trying to put up an "unbettable" number that would make it tough to get involved from the punter's side of the counter. Tell me what you would bet.

Cal -14 (I dare you to try to lay big points with this team)
Hawaii hi-50s

Indy -5.5
FIU mid-50s

UNCC low 60s
Louisville -33.5 (I thought I was going to be high, but I can't argue with current posted number)

Tulane 44.5
Wake Forest -10

Rice 61
WKU -13

SC -1.5
Vandy 45

Oregon St 49
Minnesota -11.5

Ball St mid-50s
Georgia St -2

Army 49.5
Temple -15

CSU hi-50s
Colorado -4.5 (series history doesn't support current line in spite of apparent edges for the Buffs on paper)

KSU low-50s
Stanford -11 (still hate David Shaw for calling for the bomb to put the Rose Bowl over the total)

GT -5 (I will be up at 4:30am for this one, will you?)
BC mid-40s

Hawaii 50
Michigan -34

MiamiOH low-50s
Iowa -25

WMU 53.5 (??tough)
NW -11

BG 72
Ohio St -28

Kent St 50.5
Penn St -18.5

Missouri 54.5 (low? will they have any offense?)
WVU -8

NMSU 63.5
UTEP -7

SMU -7.5
UNT 68

USA 51
Miss St -23

Texas St 58.5
Ohio -16.5

USM 62
Kentucky -6

La Tech hi-50s
Arkansas -24

Toledo 57.5
Arkansas St -1.5

UMass 55
Florida -35.5

Clemson -4.5
Auburn 67.5

UCLA 54 (no feel here)
Texas A&M -1

SJSU (impossible to total) 60?
Tulsa -5.5

App State 63.5
Tennessee -23

Rutgers 50
Washington -18

LSU -6.5 (I thought I liked LSU this year...until I saw the lines others were making, yikes!)
Wisconsin 45.5

UNC 59
Georgia -1

Oklahoma -9.5
Houston 64

Fresno St 67.5
Nebraska -24

USC 48.5
Alabama -9

Boise State -19
ULL 65.5
(this was the toughest game of week 1 to make numbers for, I'm sort of surprised Chris Andrews was so close to me here)

BYU PK
Arizona 62.5

UNI -2
Wyoming 57.5

Notre Dame -5
Texas 58.5

Ole Miss 47
FSU -9 (if I'm booking this, I want all the Mississippi money, with even average QB play the Noles take them to the cleaners IMO)
 
Nice to throw em out there Gar, guessing you're well ahead of the curve. Think you guys are well on top of Minny being undervalued and Mizzery massive question if they can score, almost scary how shitty that offense might be
 
I just had to bet Minnesota. They're definitely suspect as a favorite cause they don't always turn their TOP into points and their offense stalls out too easily, but I think this is the type of team they want to face and at 4 it was nearly HFA. I have to think the GG's should be rated at least a touchdown higher (on a neutral) than OSU to begin the year. Oregon State should be the worst team in the North division, and Oregon may be ahead of only Cal to not be 2nd worst. If it were Tracy Claeys vs GA in an eloquency or public speaking debate I would lay the points with Gary. Tracy is an adventure to listen to.
 
NMSU will have the better skill guys I have to think. Just worry about them winning at the LOS. UTEP overall more talented, better constructed, and will be at home. NMSU missed a great chance last year to win the I-10 battle.
 
TheGarfather said:
I just had to bet Minnesota. They're definitely suspect as a favorite cause they don't always turn their TOP into points and their offense stalls out too easily, but I think this is the type of team they want to face and at 4 it was nearly HFA. I have to think the GG's should be rated at least a touchdown higher (on a neutral) than OSU to begin the year. Oregon State should be the worst team in the North division, and Oregon may be ahead of only Cal to not be 2nd worst. If it were Tracy Claeys vs GA in an eloquency or public speaking debate I would lay the points with Gary. Tracy is an adventure to listen to.
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the worst in not just the north, but easily the whole conference. They will bottom out in the first half of the season. Depth aside, there will be some improvement in the second half of the season.
 
horses said:
:popcorn:
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That's a real shame. I would have thought on a once-in-a-lifetime trip to France you would have been able to find something more compelling to do than playing on the internet and discussing CFB with a bunch of losers. :cigarguy:
 
HUNT said:
Mich might get 50+ themselves. Good shit garf.
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Hawaiii off a midday game here. Fly here in 11 hours, play game (plus promo's and tourist distractions) then probably to Dallas direct before connecting to Michigan (19 hours). Then back to Hawaii for a game, then to Arizona.

They will be rooted by their bye week
 
Alan Tongue said:
Hawaiii off a midday game here. Fly here in 11 hours, play game (plus promo's and tourist distractions) then probably to Dallas direct before connecting to Michigan (19 hours). Then back to Hawaii for a game, then to Arizona.

They will be rooted by their bye week
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How will they find time to do their homework!!?!!

that mich game is gonna get real ugly.
 
Just finished up MWC which now leaves me with 2 lines for the week 1 games

I have WKY -14.5 vs Rice and Boise -21 at La-La

I don't think I missed any other lines but I'm not real close to locking anything in yet. Hopefully over the next 2-3 weeks I'll have a good many more lines and I'll run any by you guys that I think are way off b/c it's more likely that I will be the one who is missing something
 
Sweet, next team up was Ball St and it allowed me to create another line which is my first game where I disagree with the line

Georgia St -2 is my line...going to go ahead and get some down there for my first play of the 2016 season...exciting times
 
Schrute,
lay the 19.5 with penn state over kent

they will outclass them and will make the psu faithful get fired up for a few days.. Not a James Franklin fan but tha game has 41-10 written all over it
 
I can't lay anything until I have had time to go through each team. I haven't even glance at Penn St yet

Kent St will be very salty on defense but horrific on offense. Not sure we see a total over 40 there so if you're correct and the total is 51 then I won't touch a side and will just play the under
 
Scrute said:
I can't lay anything until I have had time to go through each team. I haven't even glance at Penn St yet

Kent St will be very salty on defense but horrific on offense. Not sure we see a total over 40 there so if you're correct and the total is 51 then I won't touch a side and will just play the under
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Penn st is loaded with RB's and WR's
 
WISEGUY said:
BTW , I think you are right on with Tulane at W. Forest . I've got some Tulane + 16 as I think Willie Fritz will have them ready to compete.
He's a great hire for that program IMO .
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good bet and I agree......great hire for the wave. Sadly, this will be just a stop for him before he gets a big job but I hope it lasts a while
 
Lines on the move, here we go.

UTEP to 7
Indy to 7
Minnesota to 10
Temple down below 17
Ark St back to 3 after touching 2.5 a couple days ago
Clemson almost all 7.5 after 8.5/8 earlier in the week
Oklahoma pretty solidly 10
 
I will regret not just betting Indiana when I had the chance just on feel but I like to make my numbers first
 
I'll revise Cal/Hawaii to 58.5 and 17. Not going any higher than 17 though. They were shit last year and now lost most of their semi-decent players. 38-21ish. That might actually be too high though, not so sure we see 2 good offenses right out of the gate.
 
Revising the Colorado battle to 5/55. Total may have been a bit high initially. Rams could be more run-heavy out of the gate with the loss of top 3 receiving options.

It is possible that the Buffs will totally blitzkrieg them right in the face, I'm warming to that possibility as I look more closely at the CSU DL and their likely inability to pressure the QB, but a CU blowout is still something I need to see to believe. That series just hasn't tilted heavily enough for me to assume the bigger school will wipe them out the way it says they should on paper.
 
I could even go a tad lower than 55 but I won't quibble; total hasn't busted 55 in 4 out of the last 5 years and that includes an OT game as well.

On paper, I really like the Buffs here, but no way I can lay these points in this spot. This should be their best offense in the MacIntyre era, fwiw.
 
I have SJSU inside of a FG at Tulsa. Gotta look deeper and I'll take my time because it won't move much but I think I'll end up on them...would love to find a 7
 
I initially had it closer to PK Scrute, I think I had settled in around 3 then started looking at similar midmajor matchups where the HFA tends to be worth a lot. After consulting with the oracle who was up near 7, I made it 5.5, but i think I like anything around 3-4 works fine here. Good luck on that total.
 
Revising Ohio to -18 with total of 53. Tough to find points for Texas St here.

Bringing Stanford game to 13/45, was too high before.
 
Yesterday

wake forest took money
georgia state continued to take money (i haven't looked but doubt the big move in this particular matchup can be anything but smart money)
some weird stuff going on with the wvu game
utep took money
ohio took money
sjsu took money
washington took money
 
clowncar said:
Yesterday

wake forest took money
georgia state continued to take money (i haven't looked but doubt the big move in this particular matchup can be anything but smart money)
some weird stuff going on with the wvu game
utep took money
ohio took money
sjsu took money
washington took money
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Most of them make sense, but the two I don't understand and/or think are getting out of hand are Wake and Washington. Rutgers isn't on UW's level, but its not like they're a MAC team. Crimety sakes alive. I thought I was going to be their #1 fan headed into this year, for months I've been hyping them, but come to find out everyone else likes them even more. I still have this at 18. At the current number Rutgers is the only side I could play.

I think its fair to expect to Wake to be better on both sides of the ball, but now they're laying a couple TD's and a FG when that is all they averaged last year on offense. Not sure this number is warranted. I didn't bother to check old magazines, but a quick look at the previous 5 years in the bottom of Phil Steele's team pages shows that Wake hasn't laid a number this large to an FBS team since at least 2010. Tulane brings back 8 guys from an under-performing defense, if they can just find a way to play some D and donkey the game up a little bit, they could keep it close.
 
Lines I have made so far:

WKY -15
Georgia St -2 (Played them at +3.5)
Temple -13 (will probably end up on Army but hoping for a 17)
UTEP -8
SMU -8 (will end up on North Texas but not in a rush to play a +12)
Ohio -18
Toledo PK (will probably play them but need to dissect matchup)
SJSU +1.5 (will probably play them but hoping for 7 and need to dissect matchup)
Boise -20
Wyoming +9.5
Notre Dame -5.5
 
Scrute said:
Lines I have made so far:

WKY -15
Georgia St -2 (Played them at +3.5)
Temple -13 (will probably end up on Army but hoping for a 17)
UTEP -8
SMU -8 (will end up on North Texas but not in a rush to play a +12)
Ohio -18
Toledo PK (will probably play them but need to dissect matchup)
SJSU +1.5 (will probably play them but hoping for 7 and need to dissect matchup)
Boise -20
Wyoming +9.5
Notre Dame -5.5
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Yeah, we're in the same ballpark on most of those.

Give me a LT vs So Bama neutral figure, since I know you're done with all your G5 teams.
 
Louisiana Tech -5.5

I have in my notes to go back and look at LT as I have dropped them 9.5 points since the end of last season and a lot of times I'm uncomfortable with drops of that significance
 
Last season was the first season I did my own PR, and coincidence or not, was my best/most consistent season against the books ever. So I'm looking to use them again and see if I can improve. I admittedly am not as versed in this is as most here who do the same thing, but I love reading about how y'all come up with numbers and comparing mine to y'all. I've only just finished my first draft of the PRs, so they are basically based off last year's final #s and my perception of what they have coming back. I'm way off from Scrute on the USA/La Tech #. Mine is 11'. My Arky-Miss St # is currently Ark -2', but that seems a little low based on State losing Dak. Looking forward to diving in more while I'm at the beach during the 4th
 
Bama/USC 10. Been looking at this one, interested in thoughts. I'll share mine later, but for now just trying to feel the currents.

thanks
 
Silkydiamonds said:
Bama/USC 10. Been looking at this one, interested in thoughts. I'll share mine later, but for now just trying to feel the currents.

thanks
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Starting talent is pretty close, depth is not, whether that matters to you in week 1 is up to your own discretion. In terms of areas of relative strength and weakness these teams have some remarkable similarities. New QB's for both (higher ceiling for Browne/Darnold but less experience right now), rebuilt front sevens for both, potentially dominant OL's for both throughout the season, secondaries that will be a bitch to pass on, and tons of dynamic offensive weapons all over the field. Bama will be run-based, USC more aerial-based, and when it you put it in this context the matchup looks a little more problematic for the Trojans. Browne will have to make good quick decisions cause Bama can cover WRs down the field and get after the passer, and there is just no way you can really expect USC to run right at Bama, no one does that. Bama will want to run, and should have a little success, but their OL is pretty rebuilt and will struggle to make room initially. I made the line 9. Numbers I've seen from folks in the know range from 10-12. I played USC +14 several months back and feel reasonably good about it, but its by no means a lock, Bama wins by 24 and I don't even blink. An intangible is the coaching mismatch, clear edge to Helton over Saban (let's see who is still reading this far down.)
 
My post where I wrote "haha I read it all." ... meant that I could read...... crushing your almost a Bernie supporter theory.
 
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