week 1 favorites three year trends ( myth uncovered? real trend revealed?)

[RetroVK]

Here are the ATS records of teams that are favored in their first game ( not necessarily week ) of the year , where their first game of the year was lined. Very interesting results to this. Most believe the big favorites cover a ton the first week but it appears that the recent trend is in another category.

2007 ATS favorites in first game of season

1.0-4.0 point favs ...............5-6-0
4.5-7.0 point favs..............10-1-0
7.5-11.0 point favs...............1-1-0
11.5-19.5 point favs .............7-2-0
20+ point favs .....................7-6-0

total 30-16-0


2006 ATS favorites in first game of season

1.0-4.0 point favs..................2-4-1
4.5-7.0 point favs ................6-3-1
7.5-11.0 point favs.................2-3-0
11.5-19.5 point favs ...............6-5-0
20+ point favs ......................8-4-0

total 24-19-2

2005 ATS favorites in first game of season

1.0-4.0 point favs ................4-8-1
4.5-7.0 point favs ................1-1-1
7.5-11.0 point favs ................3-4-0
11.5-19.5 point favs ...............3-3-0
20+ point favs .......................8-12-0

total 19-28-2

3 year aggregate ATS

1.0-4.0 point favs ..............11-18-2 tiny dogs good
4.5 - 7.0 point favs ............17-5-2 wow
7.5-11.0 point favs ..............6-8-0
11.5-19.5 point favs .............16-10-0
20+ point favs .....................23-22-0


aggregate total 73-63-4

 

[B.A.R.]

Wow!

Great research

I'll need those broken down for home and road chalk by tonight please

jk

very interesting though

 

[Schrute]

Awesome info. Your hard work has the potential to make us all some money this fall Thanks

 

[Schrute]

:cheers:

 

[Tide High]

an idea, and i'll do it later if no one has. compare this to week 2, 3, 4 and so on. see which #s go towards fav or dog cover as the season goes on.

 

[frankiegotti]

Good info vk, much appreciated.

 

[horses]

You're something else VK; great information.

While I haven't broke it down by point spread ranges, it is a fact that there is no historical data that indicates favorites cover at a higher rate at any point in the season. Sure, some years favorites cover at a higher rate in September and everyone remembers vividly because they are ahead of the game at that point. Fact is, there are just as many years where favorites cover at a higher rate in October and November. Total myth that favorites cover more in September.

Thanks again for this info; you're putting a lot of us to shame!

 

[Blue_Chip]

Your hard work has the potential to make us all some money this fall

... and then I'll owe you a night at the Spearmint Rhino, where I have to payoff off the strippers so that you can slap them every time they have an attitude when you turn down a lap dance.

... aw shit! This could get expensive. I hope a bunch of CTG makes bank this season, so that I'm not paying for this alone.

 

[JPicks]

Great stuff VK. Thanks for being the leader of what looks to be a well educated forum.

 

[Blue_Chip]

Take away last year and you're left with 7-4-2, which is still respectable, but I would like to see results from further back than 2005.

 

[Marlo]

:shake:Love it good stuff VK

 

[tru]

:shake:

looks good, id really like to see how it stacks up 10 ytears or so. i might have to look deep at this an run numbers

 

[RetroVK]

ok three more years .... leave anything past that point to anyone willing to do it. I will try and get back in with road/home chalk breakdwon that someone wanted

2004 ATS favorites in first game played of season

1-4 point faves ...................5-5
4.5 - 7 point favs ................3-4
7.5-11 point favs ................3-0
11.5 - 19.5 point favs ...........11-6
20+ point favs ....................9-6

total 31 -21

2003 ATS favorites in first game of season

1-4 point favs ....................6-2
4.5-7 point favs .................4-3
7.5-11 point favs ...............3-3
11.5 - 19.5 point favs ..........7-3
20+ point favs ...................11-7

2002 ATS favorites in first game of season

1-4 points ......................5-1
4.5 - 7 point favs .............2-2
7.5 - 11 point favs ........... 3-7
11.5 - 19.5 point favs ........3-4
20+ point favs ..................6-9-1


6 year aggregate

1-4 points 27-26-1 50.9 percent ( loser )
4.5-7 points 26-14-2 65.0 percent ( winner )
7.5 - 11 points 15-18 45.5 percent ( loser )
11.5 - 19.5 points 37-23 61.7 percent ( winner )
20+ points 49-44-1 52.7 percent ( winner but just pennies )
all favorites 154-125-4 55.2 percent ( winner )

Barring any errors ( lord knows there could be one or two ) thats how it looks over last six years.

 

[Ray]

definitely would like to see the home/road chalk breakdown

 

[Mags]

Very good info bro, thanks for the hard work!

:cheers:

 

[lindetrain]

While this is interesting VK, I think it's absolutely silly to take this into account at all when betting the first few weeks. As seen in '05, this can burn you. To me, 55% is not strong enough to merit using this.

The idea of betting favorites just in a certain range is just kinda absurd. Like, "well, since they're -4 I can't take them, but -4.5 and I can," doesn't have much sense behind it.

As I said, though, interesting stuff.

 

[lindetrain]

Now home chalk/road chalk could be interesting...like if road chalk covers significantly in their first game of the season it could be something to consider...but otherwise I couldn't use this.

 

[orange&white]

Now home chalk/road chalk could be interesting...like if road chalk covers significantly in their first game of the season it could be something to consider...but otherwise I couldn't use this.

Speaking for VK here, but I don't think anyone uses stats like this to say I have to make this bet because these stats say so. These are a great tool for putting you over the top in a game your almost ready to bet but not absolutely sure, not just betting them blindly. GW as usual Kyle.

 

[RetroVK]

While this is interesting VK, I think it's absolutely silly to take this into account at all when betting the first few weeks. As seen in '05, this can burn you. To me, 55% is not strong enough to merit using this.

The idea of betting favorites just in a certain range is just kinda absurd. Like, "well, since they're -4 I can't take them, but -4.5 and I can," doesn't have much sense behind it.

As I said, though, interesting stuff.

Agree with the underlined passage.
i am a matchup capper as well , lindetrain. Just putting the info out there for those who are interested in it. I won't give this much weight if any... others might though. And I thought it might be important for those that think those 20+ favorites are great bets in a teams first game... which seems to be the predominant attitude at most internet stops that i make. Figuring out whether there was merit to this common claim was the impetus for checking it out Some people make money via trends , you and i ..like to do it the other way.

For those that wanted the away records , here they are. I counted neutral sites as away games and make note of the fact that there may be a game or two where i did not record that it was a neutral site ... in other words the team i listed on bottom in my records i consider a home team ( unless noted ). So this is where a game or two of inaccuracy may be there.

1-4 point road favorites ATS ( subset )

2007 3-4
2006 0-1
2005 3-5-1
2004 2-1
2003 5-2
2002 1-1

4.5-7 point road favorites ATS ( subset )

2007 5-0
2006 3-2
2005 0-0-1
2004 0-2
2003 1-1
2002 0-0

7,5 - 11 point road favorites ATS ( subset )

2007 1-0
2006 2-1
2005 3-0
2004 0-0
2003 0-2
2002 1-2

11.5 - 19.5 point road favorites ATS ( subset )

2007 3-0
2006 1-1
2005 1-1
2004 2-2
2003 1-1
2002 0-1

20+ point road favorites ATS ( subset )

2007 0-1
2006 0-0
2005 1-1
2004 0-1
2003 1-2
2002 0-1-1


Again these are a teams first game of the year where there is also a recorded line and not necessarily the first "week" of the season.

I am not liable for any miscounting or probable error.

 

[RetroVK]

Oh and if Big Al Weeno comes in here and wants a conference breakdown ..... I'm cracking skulls !!