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Week 1 early stabs

Love it, locked and loaded!

I like the home dog at first glance.

I'm indifferent on the road team catching a tuddy.
 
Talk to me about your concern and research because I feel like Washington has trended as far North as they are going. Last season was their under value season m, this season probably will regress back and stabilize to where their .500 team value should be in my opinion

Of course on paper after what transpired in Giants nation looks miserable. Go back and look over the Giants lines last year. Then add in some better talent and A QB that doesn’t lose games. The Giants didn’t get to utilize Nabers as much as they could have last year. They couldn’t run and get any offensive continuity going. They added Scattaboo and Wilson. I am higher on Russ than most I guess. He is not the rushing WB he was but still can play.

We’ll see if I’m right but the Steelers last season didn’t have a wide out like Nabers. Steelers still made 10 wins and the playoffs.

I want to see a balanced offense get Nabers the ball so he can display his potentials. With no running game last year and no offensive balance he wasn’t able to maximize.


The other game I’m looking at is Cowboys +7

Philly Offensive coordinator out, promoted a new O’coodinator from within. Lost 4 highly paid starters to other teams and those 4 starters new contracts combined for over 200 million. These losses are huge and will make an impact. Philly now have a lot of young guys filling in for those losse. These young guys are talented. A few are from your great Michigan team so yea they have a brilliant future ahead In week one it’s going to take a little time.

Dallas went out to get Philly in the offseason. Yea Solomon Thomas and Fowler are older now but they going to come for Philly. Older guys are okay with me early in the season. Should be healthy and full power.

Dallas brings in 2 running backs, Miles Sanders and paid Williams 3 million. They brought in some talent on D and also addressed some offensive line pieces to help control the ball.

If the D can get stops and control the ball better against a lesser Philly team, that’s what they have to do. The problem is Philly absolutely destroyed the Cowboys last season.

my opinion these teams will look completely different. Philly wins in a close battle in week 1 and Hurts will get pressured. See what happens to Barkley with the changes. He looked unstoppable. In this game we are going to see the first half of this game and a big opportunity might be present in game.
We all got to see Philly at its best last season. If Philly doesn’t look like Philly at the half that is an opportunity.

I like +7 pregame with an opportunity to get more furring play. Want to see this play out.
 

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Washington elevated all season against a weak schedule. I can’t say the Giants weren’t weak last season but the same could be said for the Commanders 2024. The Giants didn’t sit in the off season. They are, and will be trending north this season. Washington and Philly looked like gold in the 2024 post season but it appears Philly sold some of that gold in the offseason. Washington didn’t do much. Debo Samuel’s is a high talent but a sophomore Qb will be facing a much more quality schedule. Samuels will get opportunities to excel but that most likely takes away touches from McLaurin.

If you have time go take a look back at the lines Washington had last year. They beat the Gmen both games and the combined margin was +8.

This is a DIV battle.
 
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Cowboys added some guards in the offseason took Paris Campbell away from the Eagles. Added WR Pickens. Added 2022 first round CB Kaiir Elam from the Bills. Added D. Fowler. added Solomon Thomas.
Lost 33 year old DeMarcus Lawrence and also got rid of 8 guys in their 30’s that were not previous first round selections.

According to ESPN Fantasy also had numerous injuries on defense last season.

I don’t think the cowboys win but they are going to be a problem for the Eagles invert 1 and all season long.
 

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spottie2935 said:
cowboys added some guards in the offseason took Paris Campbell away from the Eagles. Added WR Pickens. Added 2022 first round CB Kaiir Elam from the Bills. Added D. Fowler. added Solomon Thomas.
List 33year old DeMarcus Lawrence and also got rid of 8 guys in their 30’s that were not previous first round selections.

According to ESPN Fantasy also had numerous injuries on defense last season.

I don’t think the cowboys win but they are going to be a problem for the Eagles invert 1 and all season long.
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I agree.

I have the cowboys moving back upwards this season.
 
Week 1 Theory to be exploited

A lot of perspective is what took place either in season or the previous season. For most teams. It goes deeper than that. Let’s omit the Jets on this and maybe a few other teams that don’t have so much volatility.

I like, and the data supports meanderings volatile teams regression and teams that are ascending. Yet are still dogs.

Teams that are acquiring talented players in the offseason and even better if they also did it the previous season.

The best teams to back are the dogs with a line close to 0. nothing past +7

Raiders and Giants are the best 2 teams in week 1 and the 3rd team in the Saints. Their opponents do not have a strong history of maintaining long term success.
 
spottie2935 said:
Does anyone remember the Saints were home favorites to the Eagles in week 3 in 2024?
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Yup.

The first few weeks were ominous for the Eagles last year.

Coming off the demolishing in the MNF NFC wild card game the Iggles looked shaky starting last September.

Philly was off the weird Sunday night loss to Atlanta while the Saints had scored 91 points in demolishing Carolina and Dallas.

That Saints team was getting some "jump the shark" championship talk all week leading up to that game.

I believe Philly beat the Saints 15-12? Very odd game.

Week 4 Philly, with playoff revenge, was throttled in Tampa. After that, the March to a championship started!
 
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