*** Week #1 Discussion Thread ***

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Alright, we are slacking here unless I am totally missing something. My apologies as I usually do a week one thread months out just to quench the thirst!

With all that being said, we kick off Thursday and have a great slate of games coming up!!

Dallas 45.5
Philadelphia -8

Kansas -3
LA Chargers 45.5

Pittsburgh -2.5
NY Jets 38.5

Miami 47
Indianapolis -1

Carolina 46.5
Jacksonville -3

NY Giants 45.5
Washington -6

Cincinnati -5
Cleveland 47.5

Las Vegas 43.5
New England -2.5

Arizona -6.5
New Orleans 43.5

Tampa Bay -2.5
Atlanta 47

Tennessee 42.5
Denver -8.5

San Francisco -2.5
Seattle 43

Detroit 47
Green Bay -2.5

Houston 44
LA Rams -3

Baltimore PK
Buffalo 51

Minnesota -2
Chicago 44.5


I am also going to list the current week #2 lines so we can compare after week #1 action and see who is moving the needle...

Green Bay 2.5 and 48.5
Miami 2.5 and 45.5
Cincy 6 and 49.5
Baltimore 12.5 and 44.5
Dallas 3 and 44.5
LA Rams 5.5 and 45.5
Buffalo 8 and 44.5
Detroit 4.5 and 48.5
Pittsburgh 2.5 and 41.5
San Francisco 7 and 44
Arizona 4.5 and 46.5
Denver 3 and 44.5
Kansas City 1.5 and 46
Houston 2 and 46.5
LA Chargers 3 and 44.5
 
Cowboys/Eagles looks like an over game to me.

Dak with Pickens & CeeDee could be explosive if they can generate some sort of run game. Eagles will be able to move the ball. Cowboys are starting Elam at corner you cannot hide that guy in any nfl secondary. Diggs can't cover everybody
 
Lexington 125 said:
Cowboys/Eagles looks like an over game to me.

Dak with Pickens & CeeDee could be explosive if they can generate some sort of run game. Eagles will be able to move the ball. Cowboys are starting Elam at corner you cannot hide that guy in any nfl secondary. Diggs can't cover everybody
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Agreed.

I don't want to be too overzealous in the opener but i see some potential for multiple overs.
 
The BILLS defense is really thin at CB and has some serious questions at Safety...
Rookie 6th rounder Dorian Strong appears to be the starting CB2. While Old Tre White is dinged , starting CB1 Benford is coming back from an injury suffered in practice about 2 weeks ago.

RAVENS Team total over and Game total over might be free money ..

For what it's worth I think Baltimore scores 31-34+ win or lose
 
Lexington 125 said:
Cowboys/Eagles looks like an over game to me.

Dak with Pickens & CeeDee could be explosive if they can generate some sort of run game. Eagles will be able to move the ball. Cowboys are starting Elam at corner you cannot hide that guy in any nfl secondary. Diggs can't cover everybody
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Elam couldn't cover the teenage girls on flag football HS teams when they practiced at the Ralph Wilson fieldhouse ...And no I'm not joking , he got burned several times while on the field during drills ( several Bills participated ) ..

Us parents thought he wasn't trying or going half speed , but no he just flat out sucked , even telling girls on my daughter's team " I'm a zone corner " ...


Anyways that over looks good to me as well
 
Yeah, I like the over but Im sure everyone and their Dads will be on the over tonight and thats baked into the line. Dallas should have a capable offense.

Im a bias Commanders fan and I do see a case for a lot of things going wrong this year (lose close games instead of win, injuries, old vets being washed), but one thing I do believe is that their defense is under the radar. I will try to exploit that early in the year.

They had a bad secondary and poor run defense last year. They revamped the secondary so I believe that will also help the run defense (get into that in a second). Lattimore was there all through camp and looked healthy. Trey Amos looks like a CB1 right out of the gate. Mike Sainristill was the best rookie corner in football last year. They also have depth with Noah Igbinoghne and Jonathan Jones...not bad having Jones as the 5th best corner on the team. Will Harris looks like a big improvement at safety and Quan Martin has continued to grow at safety, look for a big push for him.

The pass rush will not be good but they will be able to blitz more with how good the secondary is. Von might help, but so will Kinlaw from inside. They did add some run stuffers to play early downs/short yardage in Wise and Goldman. Pass rush...huge concern but I think coaching can help that through creative blitzes.

Even though I think Daniels is special, the offense could regress a little. But, I think the defense will be above average.
 
Love Seattle this week as home dogs, actually did a little sb future on them, I don’t think it likely darnold lead team gets to or wins sb but +6000 seemed worth 50 bucks to me, I think that defense and run game is a playoff team, I think niners are a bit fugazi, I like rams but they have health questions (not as many as niners), anyways I like Seattle at that price and love them as home dogs to the already beat up niners.

Cincy seems incredibly square but very hard for me not to love it!! They been such notoriously bad starters w burrow and they know it, so much so they lit up a couple preseason games, I just don’t see how browns keep in it if bungals come out firing? Have a little Cincy sb future too, only thing about them I don’t like is how top heavy the afc is!


Those were really the 2 sides I liked a lot this week. There some unders i love. Tonight’s game I prefer a few props I posted in prop thread but it be over 47.5 if you made me play it., the unders I like a lot:

Gb:det un 47
Hou/rams u 44
Jets/steekers under any number 🤣
Vikings/bears u44
 
Lexington 125 said:
Cowboys/Eagles looks like an over game to me.

Dak with Pickens & CeeDee could be explosive if they can generate some sort of run game. Eagles will be able to move the ball. Cowboys are starting Elam at corner you cannot hide that guy in any nfl secondary. Diggs can't cover everybody
Click to expand...

Yep over only thing I’d play. I love Dak over 36.5 pass attempts. Like Pickens yards and cd receptions. Think you can pretty much attack any Philly prop you want, my issue w them is I feel like they can basically do anything they want so I’m not sure which guys go off? I like hurts ov 9.5 carries. I could see his passing yards for reasons you said but i just dunno if they need to pass a lot?
 
Not gonna lie, made me a bit giddy to see that Stuckey bet on the Cards to win the NFC West. And that's after he took ISU to win the big 12. Usually when he's on my teams, whether it's football or basketball, the result is positive.

Think the NFC West comes down to Seattle and the Cards but it's clearly wide open. Every preseason ranking system I've seen has all 4 teams between 10-20.
 
That said I'm not betting it and think it's more likely we cover the 6.5 at NO on Sunday but I simply don't recall the Cardinals ever being favored by a number like that on the road. Way too many questions to bet that game for me.
 
KJ said:
Not gonna lie, made me a bit giddy to see that Stuckey bet on the Cards to win the NFC West. And that's after he took ISU to win the big 12. Usually when he's on my teams, whether it's football or basketball, the result is positive.

Think the NFC West comes down to Seattle and the Cards but it's clearly wide open. Every preseason ranking system I've seen has all 4 teams between 10-20.
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The funny thing when I was reading through this thread in regards to SF, Sea, LA...I dont love any of them to be honest so there might be a good chance for another team to sneak in.
 
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KJ said:
Not gonna lie, made me a bit giddy to see that Stuckey bet on the Cards to win the NFC West. And that's after he took ISU to win the big 12. Usually when he's on my teams, whether it's football or basketball, the result is positive.

Think the NFC West comes down to Seattle and the Cards but it's clearly wide open. Every preseason ranking system I've seen has all 4 teams between 10-20.
Click to expand...

If Stafford healthy and Oline keeps him that way rams tough but I think everyone in this div could end up with 8-10 wins.
 
KJ said:
Division gets both AFC and NFC South so there's that
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I knew niners had one of easiest schedules in league so I assumed they all played some the weak divisions. I hadn’t really got all crazy into stalking schedules tho.,
 
Not really shocking that sharp money is on Dallas tonight and both sharp/square money on over. Makes a ton of sense given the line at a TD+ and a manageable over between two teams that can score. Only way I can justify plays is with some random props tonight. AN makes a good point about both TEs being +300 or greater, take them both and it only takes one TD to make money. I like that angle.
 
KJ said:
Not really shocking that sharp money is on Dallas tonight and both sharp/square money on over. Makes a ton of sense given the line at a TD+ and a manageable over between two teams that can score. Only way I can justify plays is with some random props tonight. AN makes a good point about both TEs being +300 or greater, take them both and it only takes one TD to make money. I like that angle.
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I like the backup Eagles TE to score tonight
 
2daBank said:
Since I already rocked w cowboys passing Game props I played eagles team total ov 28.5. Feel like Philly player props a little tougher since I think they can do whatever they want!
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I’m considering Eagles TT over. Think they can get to 35. May go with TT over 1H
 
Well, the biggest dog of the week barks.
Im leaning playing the Saints, but maybe under is the play?
Any thoughts?
 
Frank Costanza said:
Yeah, that was abysmal. $34MM / year and you absolutely have to make those catches.
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It's interesting. Some very successful teams like KC Buffalo so far have resisted handing out the big WR contracts. Obviously they have great qb. KC shipped Hill to Miami. But most teams are doing the $35m to $40m for star WR. Last night with Brown and Lamb, paying the big bucks didn't pan out. Of Dak, Lamb and Parsons I think Jerry paid the wrong guys. Dak not top 10 to me.
 
I don't do props but seems like a nice opp with Mark Andrews for a TD Sunday night. He was "absolutely gutted" (his words) by the drop in the divisional round last year. Thinking Harbaugh / the team may look his way v. the Bills, more than usual.
 
lvmike32 said:
It's interesting. Some very successful teams like KC Buffalo so far have resisted handing out the big WR contracts. Obviously they have great qb. KC shipped Hill to Miami. But most teams are doing the $35m to $40m for star WR. Last night with Brown and Lamb, paying the big bucks didn't pan out. Of Dak, Lamb and Parsons I think Jerry paid the wrong guys. Dak not top 10 to me.
Click to expand...

Agree. Jerrah's spending habits probably warrant their own thread.
 
lvmike32 said:
It's interesting. Some very successful teams like KC Buffalo so far have resisted handing out the big WR contracts. Obviously they have great qb. KC shipped Hill to Miami. But most teams are doing the $35m to $40m for star WR. Last night with Brown and Lamb, paying the big bucks didn't pan out. Of Dak, Lamb and Parsons I think Jerry paid the wrong guys. Dak not top 10 to me.
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Dak was balling last night, he was let down by his star WR.
 
deuce's wild said:
Dak was balling last night, he was let down by his star WR.
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Agree he did but still don't think Jerry needed to make him highest paid player in nfl. He's always underperformed in big games and pads his stats when game over or vs shit teams. But he was good last night so we'll see if he can sustain it.
 
I think Baltimore has won every regular season game, Bills have won every playoff game. Think I remember that from last year.
 
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