Week 1 College Football Picks & Analysis

Inspekdah

My man, Michael Jordan!
Alright moved long analysis/ramble into the reply below. Will update picks/leans/units in this top thread to keep things clean. New info and shit I'll just reply to as normal.


Plays (Updated 8/29)


Florida 1H -20 -125 to Win 2 Units

Wisky 1H -14 -115 to win 1 Unit

Kansas 1H -20.5 to win 2 Units

*Oregon -7/WYO -6 -120 to Win 3 Units

Oregon -7/OKST -1 -120 to Win 1 Unit


South Carolina -12 -110 1.1 To Win 1 Unit *WINNER*

*Oklahoma St. -6.5 -110 To Win 4.5 Units
-6.5 -120 to Win 1 Unit [to win 5.5 Units Total]

*TCU -6.5 -115 To Win 4.5 Units

*Wake Forest -6 / Temple -1 -120 To Win 3 Units *WINNER*

Temple -6.5 -120 2.2 Units to Win 1.85 Units *WINNER*

Northwestern -12 -110 To Win 2 Units

*Wyoming -10 -110 To Win 2.5 Units

Vandy/Mia(OH) TOTAL UNDER 41.5 -110 To Win 2 Units
*DUCK*

UTEP ML (DOG) 2 UNITS +140 *LAME DUCK*



Leans (Updated 8/29)

Florida 1H (XLARGE)

Oregon -13.5/14 (LARGE)
Vandy/MIA (OH) UNDER 41.5 (MED)
Wake Forest -12/12.5 SMALL (MED TEASER)
Temple -7 SMALL (MED TEASER)
Utah/Michigan UNDER (REGULAR)
Northwestern -11.5/12 (REGULAR)
Wyoming -10 (REGULAR)
TCU -7 (LARGE) *Hit @ -6.5 -115*
Oky St -7 (MEDIUM TO LARGE)

Virginia TT UNDER (MEDIUM?) *Eliminated*
K State -23.5/24 (SMALL) *24.5 now....*
Tenn -7 (SMALL)
Troy -6.5
Zona TT Over
K State TT Over
 
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Moving the base of my analysis/info here...


Well CFB is back and I’m ready to give the books hell right from the get-go. I love going at it strong for the first couple weeks… I feel the first month, or four to five weeks are the easiest to hit and strike the books up for good profits. I seem to favor betting superior teams vs. rebuilding, or struggling teams and the lines are not over-inflated yet. By the time conference scheduling comes around there will be some other things to look at and one must be much more selective when reviewing the cards.
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I will reply to this thread and post plays when they are put in separately each time. For now I will just go over my leans and analysis of some of the games that I have had my eye on for over a month now. I use popular online references, and use Phil Steele for the majority of my statistics/trends.
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<st1:state w:st="on"><st1>FLORIDA</st1> </st1:state>GATORS 1H - Up to 20 Points. <o></o>
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The Gators are one of a couple teams favored to bring in a national championship this season. Their offense will not skip a beat and should only improve with big T entering his 3<sup>rd</sup> season. They will once again begin to use a dual QB system, which will only benefit Teebow long-term and also will help them cover larger spreads… especially early in the year when they continue to try to develop an identify and help get backup QB/pocket passer Cameron Newton some experience.

<o></o><st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Hawaii</st1></st1:state> returns 8 starters, with 4 coming back on each side of the ball. Brennan, gone. Top 4 stud WR’s, gone. We saw what happened to their undefeated season last year when they went up against top-notch talent. They got smoked and looked silly doing so. They make a similarly long trip to Florida and face a team with even more offensive potency in FLA than Georgia… but only bring about 1/10<sup>th</sup> the talent they had last season to the battlefield. The last time <st1:state w:st="on">Hawaii</st1:state> opened the season vs. a powerhouse the likes of <st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Florida</st1></st1:state>… they got waxed 17 to 63 by USC at home. <st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Florida</st1></st1:state> is 5-0 all time vs. the WAC, winning by 43 points per game. It will take some busted plays, special teams luck, or a drastically poor defensive effort for <st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Florida</st1></st1:state> to not be up 21 points at half. I think we will see 31-3. I expect <st1:state w:st="on">FLA</st1:state>’s defense to really come out juiced up, especially about being torched by <st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Michigan</st1></st1:state> in the last game of the season and the majority comes back to improve on a unit that struggled due to inexperience.
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<st1><st1:state w:st="on">TEXAS</st1:state></st1> LONGHORNS -24 <o></o> No Play, Line Movement and FAU is much better than Arky St (LY)
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FAU is a vastly improving program but all should realize this is only within the Sun-Belt conference and against that type of competition. I have played <st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Oklahoma</st1></st1:state> St. now two years running against them in what were big time blowouts. <st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Texas</st1></st1:state>, on the other side of things is notorious for blowing teams out of the water in the first game of the season. Last year was an overall disappointing and failure of a season for <st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Texas</st1></st1:state>… I like them to rebound this year and I expect them to not let up and this one and continue their tradition of beating up on their opponents to the tune of 49-6 over their last 8 home-openers. <st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Texas</st1></st1:state> struggled mightily vs. <st1:street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">Arky St.</st1:address></st1:street> last year and had <st1:street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">Arky St.</st1:address></st1:street> actually played WELL… they could and should have possibly won this game. FAU returns 18 starters, and should be the teams to beat in their conference but those 18 starters have never put up a squeal on the road vs. superior competition… why do things change here?
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Looking to see a halftime line of 13.5 or less and I will pounce on that too!
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</o><st1:state w:st="on"><st1>OREGON</st1> -14</st1:state> Waiting for less than 14, once again...
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This play has just emerged to me over the last couple of days. <st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Oregon</st1></st1:state> in my opinion should be the second best team in the PAC10 and is ready to continue their success after BEATING DOWN USF in their bowl game last year. That tells me two things… they already figured out how to beat good teams without Dixon and that they play exceptionally well when they have time to prepare like they will have in week one. Last season <st1:state w:st="on">Washington</st1:state> got bulldozed by <st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Oregon</st1></st1:state> but somehow only lost by 14 points at home. They let up almost 500 rushing yards!!! And over 650 total yards of offense to the Ducks.<st1:state w:st="on"><st1></st1></st1:state><st1:state w:st="on"><st1> Washington</st1></st1:state> returns 6 defensive starters too so don’t expect the unit to be much more experience and improved. QB play will be essential this season for <st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Washington</st1></st1:state> from former top recruit Jake Locker but he’s down his 4 favorite targets in 2007. Phil Steele is down on them as well, and he’s usually pretty accurate in his prediction…. He feels they could win less than 4 wins so obviously got no shot here on the road. <st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Washington</st1></st1:state>’s running game has been pathetic so they will try to pass the ball around. Only problem is they are going to be throwing it into the best secondary in the nation on the road. I think this one can get out of hand early. Love that <st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Oregon</st1></st1:state>’s O-LINE should be rock-solid again and the running game will be their trademark. They ran for 5.3 yards per carry and <st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Washington</st1></st1:state>’s defense won’t do much better.
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<o></o><st1><st1>Kansas</st1> </st1><st1><st1>State 1 unit when under 24 pops up</st1>

</st1> Like <st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Texas</st1></st1:state> I will look to see if I can get 13 or lower on the halftime line. I am not thrilled by any manner with Kansas State this season… but this is a run of the mill BIG12 team vs. a poor non-BCS school who is in for a long, long season themselves. Last season <st1:state w:st="on">Oklahoma</st1:state>, and mainly <st1:state w:st="on">Oklahoma</st1:state>’s backups smacked <st1>lace </st1><st1>North Texas</st1> in the opener by 69 points (79-10). <st1>North Texas</st1> loses their top 5 tacklers from last season so I don’t know how they plan to keep this game close…
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Last season vs. superior opponents on the road for <st1>North Texas</st1>
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@Oklahoma 10-79 L
@Arkansas 7-66 L
@ Troy 8-45 L
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What I really like here is that tackling stat, or loss I should say for K State AND the fact that on top of that they allowed 5.7 YPC. That is a ridiculous stat and this game should get blown open. K State is still an intimidating place to play. Freeman returns for K State at QB and the majority of their offensive line unit which was one of the nation’s best last season. Blow out in the making.
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</o><st1:city w:st="on"><st1>Temple</st1> </st1:city> -5<o></o>
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First I don’t like the idea of betting on <st1:city w:st="on"><st1>Temple</st1> </st1:city> or crappy teams in general but this one seems to fit the right bill. They were 6 point underdogs on the road at Army last season and got beat both SU and ATS. <st1:city w:st="on"><st1></st1></st1:city><st1:city w:st="on"><st1>Temple</st1></st1:city> returns really the same, improved team to the mix in this matchup while Army is in a rebuilding year. Army only returns 8 starters. Last year they could only get the running game going to the tune of 2.6 YPC also. Army is 2-9 in their last 11 home openers so a loss here would be anything less than a shock. <st1:city w:st="on"><st1>Temple</st1></st1:city> though does not run the ball much better… at 2.7 YPC. However, Steele has them breaking the .500 mark and losing on the road to Army won’t get them there. They are the only team to return ALL STARTERS and somehow only lose 2 lettermen. I don’t even know how that’s possible. The team has goals of going to a bowl while Army seems to be just trying to field a team together.
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<st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Wyoming</st1></st1:state> -10 & Under <o></o>
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Lots have been said about this game already. I have been going back and forth. At one time I liked it as my play of the week. Now I am not so sure. It has nothing to do with <st1><st1:state w:st="on">Ohio</st1:state></st1> looking formidable either. They lose their top rusher and QB and go on the road to a team who usually starts the season of well. Steele has them way down this year and I agree 100%. <st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Wyoming</st1></st1:state> should improve on a less than stellar year last season. I’ll get more into this game as I get closer to placing my bets but as of right now I feel it’s a bit too popular. I don’t see though how <st1:state w:st="on">Ohio</st1:state> runs the ball effective against <st1:state w:st="on"><st1>WYO</st1></st1:state> and stays in the game. The under is growing to me as a real possibility… especially if we get some crappy/windy weather.
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Northwestern -12<o></o>
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Alright. I am from NY but I am not and never will be a Cuse fan. This overall dislike… along with the hiring of their bum of a coach has lined my pockets up with some cash over the past few seasons. Sure they surprised the world when they beat the worst defensive effort in history at <st1:city w:st="on"><st1>Louisville</st1></st1:city> last season… but this team stinks, again and will be coach Greg’s last season.
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-Cuse was 1-4 on the road last year and is 0-4 in their last 4 road openers… losing by only 30 ppg.
-They lose 2/3 of their top tacklers but do return on offense their QB Robinson & stud WR Mike Williams.
- Cuse ran for 2.0 YPC LY… ugh and letup 4.8 on the ground.
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Northwestern on the other hand is an improving program and team and should win no less than 6 games. Stud RB Sutton returns along with the majority of the starters from last season including QB Bacher. They have won their opener for 3 years running now. In a matchup last year of teams with similar skill sets… Cuse traveled to <st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Iowa</st1> </st1:state>and got thrashed 35-0.
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Michigan/Utah UNDER <o></o>
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A lot of talk about this one as well going on at CTG. Utah in 2006 put up 10 points and last year exploded for 7. They allowed a modest 3.9 YPC and running will be the goal of UM. Only 3 starters return on offense and 7 come back on defense. Clearly, defense will have to be UM’s strength to win this game. I’ll wait to see if some others on this board more closely involved with UM (even though they are my favorite school) bite on this play when the number leaks out. For now it just looks like it has all the makings of my only total play, or two.
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</o><st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Virginia</st1></st1:state> TT Under<o></o>
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USC will have a stacked defense this year. <st1:state w:st="on"><st1>Virginia</st1></st1:state><st1:state w:st="on"></st1:state> loses their QB and will try to keep this one close with ball control IMO. I don’t know about the -20 chalk on the road but I like the under for VA and the game. I will have more on this if I make on a play when the number comes out.
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I put this together at work... I have more thoughts and will continue to update. Here's to a good season.
 
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give me a headache with your shit format :tiphat:


Florida 1h - Don't disagree except their depth at Safety would have me a little concerned, I will be on Florida TT OVER

Texas -24 - Have seen quite a few on this, I am personally staying away but the logic on the play from everyone, yourself included, is sound.

Oregon -14 - not a game I've seen a lot of people mess with but I've been going back and forth on it. Costa if healthy should be good and Johnson is a beast. They will be real taltned in the trenches as well and they own at home. Going to go deeper into this game myself.

KSU -no opinion

Temple, Wyoming, Northwestern - I am on these games.

Mich Under - was a side I originally liked and still like but there is just too much unknown to me about this Mich Offense right now and how Utah prepares for it.

UVA TT Under - Like this play, I am still looking at USC-20 myself but want to see how their OL comes about this summer.
 
Lots of folks on our board like the horns to cover but that line has consistently dropped since open.

With you on temple and wyoming.

Northwestern -12<O></O>
<O></O>
Alright. I am from NY but I am not and never will be a Cuse fan. This overall dislike… along with the hiring of their bum of a coach has lined my pockets up with some cash over the past few seasons. Sure they surprised the world when they beat the worst defensive effort in history at <?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = ST1 /><ST1:CITY w:st="on"><ST1>Louisville</ST1></ST1:CITY> last season… but this team stinks, again and will be coach Greg’s last season.
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-Cuse was 1-4 on the road last year and is 0-4 in their last 4 road openers… losing by only 30 ppg.
-They lose 2/3 of their top tacklers but do return on offense their QB Robinson & stud WR Mike Williams.
- Cuse ran for 2.0 YPC LY… ugh and letup 4.8 on the ground.
<O></O>
Northwestern on the other hand is an improving program and team and should win no less than 6 games. Stud RB Sutton returns along with the majority of the starters from last season including QB Bacher. They have won their opener for 3 years running now. In a matchup last year of teams with similar skill sets… Cuse traveled to <ST1:STATE w:st="on"><ST1>Iowa</ST1> </ST1:STATE>and got thrashed 35-0.

You will be happy to know that i think mike williams of syracuse is vurrently suspended from school over an academic issue. Not sure what his status will end up being but this can only help your cause. Not sure i trust northwestern as a double digit home favorite. They have been a terrible home favorite the last few years , i think 0-5 the last two years combined. Syracuse on the other hand is 5-5 as an away dog the last two years. I had northwestern as a big favorite against e michigan last year at a neutral site and while they played well enough to cover the spread i needed a late miracle of sorts to pull it out. How many do you think they score on the Cuse ?
 
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Lots of folks on our board like the horns to cover but that line has consistently dropped since open.

With you on temple and wyoming.

Northwestern -12 <O>:p></O>:p>
<O>:p> </O>:p>
Alright. I am from NY but I am not and never will be a Cuse fan. This overall dislike… along with the hiring of their bum of a coach has lined my pockets up with some cash over the past few seasons. Sure they surprised the world when they beat the worst defensive effort in history at <?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = ST1 /><ST1:CITY w:st="on"><ST1>:place w:st="on">Louisville</ST1>:place></ST1:CITY> last season… but this team stinks, again and will be coach Greg’s last season.
<O>:p> </O>:p>
-Cuse was 1-4 on the road last year and is 0-4 in their last 4 road openers… losing by only 30 ppg.
-They lose 2/3 of their top tacklers but do return on offense their QB Robinson & stud WR Mike Williams.
- Cuse ran for 2.0 YPC LY… ugh and letup 4.8 on the ground.
<O>:p> </O>:p>
Northwestern on the other hand is an improving program and team and should win no less than 6 games. Stud RB Sutton returns along with the majority of the starters from last season including QB Bacher. They have won their opener for 3 years running now. In a matchup last year of teams with similar skill sets… Cuse traveled to <ST1:STATE w:st="on"><ST1>:place w:st="on">Iowa</ST1>:place></ST1:STATE> and got thrashed 35-0.

You will be happy to know that i think mike williams of syracuse is vurrently suspended from school over an academic issue. Not sure what his status will end up being but this can only help your cause. Not sure i trust northwestern as a double digit home favorite. They have been a terrible home favorite the last few years , i think 0-5 the last two years combined. Syracuse on the other hand is 5-5 as an away dog the last two years. I had northwestern as a big favorite against e michigan last year at a neutral site and while they played well enough to cover the spread i needed a late miracle of sorts to pull it out. How many do you think they score on the Cuse ?

Mike Williams = out for yr
 
Oh snap. I didn't know that. But now it sounds right and I talked to my Cuse buddies and he definitely is out. Which will only make Cuse easier to defend. Syracuse will have to dump the ball around the field.

I like NW to score points this year. I actually think they are in the same boat now as Michigan, Purdue, etc... a step or two behind OSU, PSU, and Wisky and perhaps lllinois but right in that second/third tier of the big 10. We saw a crappy Iowa team blank the Orange.

I was on that EMU/NW game also... and NW looked like absolute crap. Wasn't that in a dome? It was just like a sleepwalk effort... I think they can do better vs. Cuse and I feel that EMU probably better than the Orange....
 
Be back with more leans/analysis in a bit. Fixed the HORRID formatting from before. Sorry for anyone who dislikes smiley faces as much as I do now.
 
Haven't locked anything in yet... but will probably next week. Wanted to wait to do them all together with HT lines but looks like I'd be waiting another 2 or 3 weeks for that thanks to BAR's info in another post.

Florida 1H will probably be 20 to 21.5... I will play it large up to 21. It should be the easiest play of the card.

Oregon still right there at 14 and I'm loving it as my 2nd largest play.


Temple at 6, or 6.5 shows it was the right side but you can't lay 7 large on such a bad team historically. Will play small if I can still get under 7.

NW looks like an even stronger play at this point as time goes on. Losing their stud DT does concern me though and may limit this to a medium play as a result. Still don't see the Orange being able to run the ball.
 
Thanks guys!

What do you guys think about a WF -6.5/ Temple -1 Teaser? I know they aren't wise plays but they do work early in the season. I don't see how that one cannot hit. Just feeling out how I want to break down my units on each of these games.

I also like a ORE -7/NW -6 Teaser as well.

Still hoping we see 21 or under on a FLA HT line. What is the usual HT line on a 34 point spread? Anyone??
 
2 Games I would do a 6 point teaser on...


Troy -.5
Oklahoma St PK


I just don't like having any points if I were to tease something and I cant see these 2 teams losing SU
 
I'm not sure if I'm going to leave this thread more excited that you said Oh Snap or after viewing the Steve Young murial (sp). Either way good shit.
 
Looking to lock-in within the next day or two ... right now still loving Florida 1H up to 20.5, and liking it up to 21. Will jump all over it big if 19.5 or smaller. I feel like this line is so much larger than the other spreads for a reason. No doubt, Florida and Kansas should have the largest wins when week 1 is said and done.

FAU is superior to Hawaii this season in my opinion.. if Hawaii was traveling to FAU I think FAU should be a TD favorite. Texas at the swamp would be at least a TD dog against the Gators... so that's why the line is so high.

Really feel like going with a few teasers. I will only do them week 1 in both CFB and NFL (pretty much all I will do in NFL.. and only in week 1)

Temple -1/Wake -6.5

I think Wake wins this by a TD no doubt. I am scared that they win this game somehow by 10 or 11. The line has been holding firm. I listened to ESPN radio today and the head coach had nothing to really say of any insight other than this is one of the better teams he has and that's on top of some very successful seasons. He spent more time talking about the educational values and experience at WF... blah!

Temple should not lose the game... I like the teaser because it gives me action over Thurs/Friday.

Oregon down to 13.5 at BM. Probably going to start week 1 out solely on Greek so I'll have to play the 14.


Ok St. has always been a team I like to bet because of their ability to put up points. I love them in situations vs. smaller schools who have no business facing the big 12 like FAU over the past 2 years. Washington St. does not exactly fit that concept being a PAC10 school... but Ok. St should be superior. Others on here have alot better stuff on this game.. and honestly that's why my attention has been brought to this one.

Virginia TT UNDER

Anyone have an idea where this will be? Game total has to be between 41-46 so that would have Virginia scoring somewhere around 19-23? I don't see it happening and I see USC working clock on the road and establishing some more basic aspects of their offense. Thoughts here?

I added TCU after reading some others threads who have great information on this one. Just seems like the kind of play I love to make. Dominated them last year and this team only gets better.
 
2 Games I would do a 6 point teaser on...


Troy -.5
Oklahoma St PK


I just don't like having any points if I were to tease something and I cant see these 2 teams losing SU


Will look into that seriously. Didn't spend alot of time looking over Troy laying almost a TD the first time around.

Thanks:shake:
 
Good selections, Inspekdah Deck. On TCU and Wake Forest. Most likely on Northwestern, but am still mulling over Oregon. Your writeup is spot on. My only concern is if they can execute like we think they can. The Washington game is a big rivalry and I think it will be a blowout, (the number will never be in question) or the number could never be met at any point in the game....It's a night game and a home opener and after talking with my Oregon friend, he says the Ducks play best at night. But it's still the intangibles that has me staying away. Locker is expected to start. I don't know if that will make much of a difference, but for some reason, I'm having a hard time pulling the trigger on this one.
 
Just played TCU, Ok St. and SC.

Saw SC jump to 13 earlier and still had 12 available at Greek so jumped on it for a unit. Playing TCU and Ok St. much larger.

Adding:

Wake Forest -6 / Temple -1 -120 To Win 3 Units
 
Northwestern -12 -110 To Win 2 Units

Wyoming -10 -110 To Win 2 Units

Don't think these will move down. Can get 11.5 at BM on NW right now though... I'll be pissed if I see an 11.
 
Wow , in a lot of agreement with your card.

hope you win this week ,!. nice little teaser there as well.
 
Yeah well your write-up got me looking into TCU hard... between you and ETG it's hard not to add a play or two of "yours" with some of the reasoning you put behind them. Rest of my plays look like board favorites...

Still like FLA 1H, & Oregon but can't bet FLA 1H yet and Oregon should not go beyond 2 td's in a rivalry game. I'll play that when I see 13.5 or wait a bit before jumping on it.
 
Houghton, let me know what you do with the ORE game and if your ORE source has any more info on that one... thanks!
 
No doubt, Inspekdah. I'm personally off Oregon, not because I'm down on them, but just because I'm ultra conservative when it comes to my plays. I narrow the list to 3-6 by the end of the week. But I'll definitely keep you posted with what's up. Just learned that Costa got hurt yesterday, but should be ready for opener.

This was from Thursday:

Oregon’s official status report on quarterback Nate Costa is that he will not practice today but could return as soon as this weekend after sustaining a non-contact injury to his surgically repaired left knee last night. Costa suffered the injury midway through the Ducks’ practice Wednesday evening but later returned to the field, UO coach Mike Bellotti said.
Costa also will not scrimmage Friday. The first-string was scheduled for minimal use regardless.
The redshirt sophomore quarterback, Oregon’s presumed starter next week against Washington, was scheduled for medical testing today. A thorough review of the results may not come until Sunday, as a team orthopedic surgeon is out of town.

Doesn't sound too bad, right?
 
No doubt, Inspekdah. I'm personally off Oregon, not because I'm down on them, but just because I'm ultra conservative when it comes to my plays. I narrow the list to 3-6 by the end of the week. But I'll definitely keep you posted with what's up. Just learned that Costa got hurt yesterday, but should be ready for opener.

This was from Thursday:

Oregon’s official status report on quarterback Nate Costa is that he will not practice today but could return as soon as this weekend after sustaining a non-contact injury to his surgically repaired left knee last night. Costa suffered the injury midway through the Ducks’ practice Wednesday evening but later returned to the field, UO coach Mike Bellotti said.
Costa also will not scrimmage Friday. The first-string was scheduled for minimal use regardless.
The redshirt sophomore quarterback, Oregon’s presumed starter next week against Washington, was scheduled for medical testing today. A thorough review of the results may not come until Sunday, as a team orthopedic surgeon is out of town.

Doesn't sound too bad, right?


Sounds terrible to me. He might not be hurt badly but if that was the QB I am backing, I would want to know his surgically repaired knee can hold up over the course of the game and I'm going to have to see that happen with Costa first before I put my money on him. I was looking at Oregon in this game before I came across this but laying 2 TD's and not knowing if my QB can hold up is not what I am looking to do here.
 
Sounds terrible to me. He might not be hurt badly but if that was the QB I am backing, I would want to know his surgically repaired knee can hold up over the course of the game and I'm going to have to see that happen with Costa first before I put my money on him. I was looking at Oregon in this game before I came across this but laying 2 TD's and not knowing if my QB can hold up is not what I am looking to do here.

Well, it is one of the reasons I'm not playing Oregon, but as far as the injury goes, it was a non-contact injury and he should be back by Monday, latest...so it didn't seem like that was a big deal.

It's just that, combined with all the intangibles, that have me staying away. The talent is there and Oregon should dominate, but I'd be very wary of the backdoor.
 
Yeah that and Jake's ability to scramble with his feet... especially late when Oregon opens up a umbrella defense with a 17-20 point lead could turn into the ultimate moose. I'll stay away for now but thanks for the insight.

Saw Wyoming's line finally move to 10.5 at BM... so I'll add another 1/2 unit while I can still get it at 10 at Greek.
 
great thread, inspektah. liked the read thru. :cheers:

and it looks like a very solid week 1 card to me. BOL with it, bro.
 
In fear of some lines moving beyond crucial #s. I added 1 unit to TCU/OKST. Was going to go SC -12.5 but it's 13 now.

Got a line of Vandy/Mia(OH) UNDER.. 41.5 and took it for 2 units.
 
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Bumpity bump...

read a few times, sorry haven't posted...

Looks solid as always...roll like ya did a fw years back(or was that last year?)
 
Couple years ago clipped 60% posted picks... and topped it off with a huge play of Michigan +7 @ OSU :)

Let's hit games like that again and finish out well on top.
 
In fear of some lines moving beyond crucial #s. I added 1 unit to TCU/OKST. Was going to go SC -12.5 but it's 13 now.

Got a line of Vandy/Mia(OH) UNDER.. 41.5 and took it for 2 units.

FYI: Oregon is down to 13.5 @several books. Is this is a play you're still considering?
 
I am. Very strongly. I saw 13 yesterday at BM so it might come down to that? I think I'll make a final decision on this game late Friday night or early Sat. morning.

I might be forced to tease them and someone like Pitt to get them both under a TD... both superior teams playing at home...
 
Reason for the move is probably because Costa WILL NOT START. Roper is the starter against Washington, but if his play in the Sun Bowl is any indication, he'll be good to go.

Five days before the opening game of the season, Oregon’s quarterback battle came to a decisive end Monday when Nate Costa was scheduled for surgery later this week to repair torn cartilage in his left knee.
Costa, a redshirt sophomore, was surrendering ground to Justin Roper over the past two weeks in their competition to start the opener. Then, Costa injured his knee Wednesday. Roper will start Saturday when Washington visits Autzen Stadium to play the No. 21 Ducks at 7 p.m.
“Right now, he’s the guy,” UO offensive coordinator Chip Kelly said. “Looking at our track record with quarterbacks, I’d be very pleased if he got 100 percent of the snaps, because if he did it means he didn’t get banged up.”
Roper, a sophomore, accounted for seven touchdowns against one interception in the final two games of 2007, when he took over following injuries to the four quarterbacks ahead of him on the depth chart. One of those was Costa, who was on track to redshirt before he tore ligaments in his left knee during late October practice.
Sophomore transfer Jeremiah Masoli, who led his junior college team to a national title last fall but has nursed a wrist injury this year, assumes the backup role. Athletic true freshman Chris Harper is No. 3, and could be called on in situational duty.
Roper said he heard Saturday that Costa’s injury might be significant. Though Roper outplayed Costa in a scrimmage 10 days ago and performed well in another scrimmage Friday, it took the diagnosis of Costa’s injury to finalize his starting spot.
“It is what it is,” Roper said of the circumstances. “It’s good to get a chance to play and make the most of it.”
Roper began the 2007 season fourth on the depth chart but slipped to fifth behind Cody Kempt during the fall. After Dennis Dixon, Brady Leaf and Costa had all been injured, Kempt started the overtime Civil War defeat before being knocked out in the early going. Roper rallied the Ducks into position for a potential game-winning field goal at the end of regulation, then directed a 56-21 win over South Florida in the Sun Bowl.
“I’ve been saying all fall camp, we’ve got two great quarterbacks,” running back Jeremiah Johnson said. “The only thing we’ve got to do with Roper is just keep his confidence up if anything goes bad.”
Masoli accounted for more than 4,000 yards of offense and 40 touchdowns for City College of San Francisco last fall. He didn’t participate in 11-on-11 drills until last week to protect his right (throwing) wrist; Monday is believed to be the first day he didn’t appear on Oregon’s daily injury report.
“No. 1, my wrist feels great,” Masoli said. “It’s always felt great this whole time. We were just being cautious with it. No. 2, I do feel confident with this offense and this playbook, especially with the guys around me.”
Masoli, at 5-foot-11 and 214 pounds, is a stocky, rocket-armed thrower in the mold of Costa. Kelly called the lanky, 6-6 Roper “underrated as an athlete” and said the Ducks won’t adjust the game plan for Roper.
“There is really not that much flexibility,” center Max Unger said. “We run the spread offense. The quarterbacks do what they’re designed to do, and there’s not a whole heck of a lot you can do to change.”
Costa’s mobility gave him an edge over Roper in their competition, until last week’s injury. The non-contact incident occurred late in practice as he slowed up on a run.
Though he continued to participate in the practice, Costa knew something was wrong.
“It could be my last four plays that I get to play football this year, so I figured, why not stay out there and give it my best shot?” Costa said.
An MRI exam was conducted, but Costa wasn’t scheduled for surgery until meeting Monday with athletic department orthopedic consultant Dr. Rudy Hoellrich. The preliminary diagnosis after a stress test Monday is that Costa has a torn meniscus, but that the injury could be limited to cartilage and not ligaments.
The MRI results were difficult to interpret, Costa said, because this is his third major injury to the same knee, following an ACL tear in high school and the torn ligaments last fall.
“There’s a lot of scar tissue up in there,” Costa said. “It’s really hard to read an MRI when there’s that much stuff in the way. So he’s not truly going to know until he opens it up Wednesday.”
If no ligament damage is found, Costa could return in as little as eight weeks, making him potentially available for the final five games of the regular season and a possible bowl game. Depending on how the season is going and how their quarterback play has been, the Ducks might be tempted to use Costa at that point.
An athlete who loses two seasons of eligibility to injury can petition to the NCAA for a sixth year. But even if Costa sat out this entire season, Oregon will have an uphill battle arguing that his redshirt last year owed solely to an injury, because the injury occurred past the halfway point of the season, UO executive assistant athletic director for compliance Bill Clever said.
“There’s going to be something good to come out of this,” Costa said after spending Monday’s UO practice on the sideline in a T-shirt and shorts, signalling in plays to the offense. “There always is. Maybe I’m going to coach somebody up on the sideline that’s going to make a big play, or maybe I’m going to tell Rope about a coverage that I saw and he’s going to throw a touchdown pass on it. Something good is going to come out of this, and that’s something that I’m waiting for.”
 
I saw/heard that... can't really be thought of as a bad thing IMO. Think we get the more experienced/ready guy out the gates and proved he can succeed after long layoffs without playing vs. other teams.
 
Might have to lay off these smaller conferences till I get a handle on them. That Mia OH game went over on total bs plays... a ton of turnovers and homerun scores.... Live and learn. Should have played Wake ATS and with the teaser.... Going to play more with my gut for the next 3 weeks before getting kinky with playing 3.5 point dogs on the road vs. another wretched team.



Really like Temple tomorrow though and going to hope to hit it and the teaser.

Adding...

Temple -6.5 2.2 -120 to win 1.85 Units



Colin Cowherd says he likes...

USC -17.5
Tenn -7.5
Missouri -9
Utah +3.5, losing by 1
Cal -5
Oregon -13.5

He's usually a little above 50% I'd guess. He called for Kansas to beat Missouri but now says Missouri is the 2nd or 3rd best team in the country. I agree big time w/ Tenny, Oregon, and Missouri here as they should all roll.

Still hoping to see Oregon hit 13, I will lock this play in tonight. Probably split a bit between the 13.5, and teased -6.5 to get 7 w/ possibly Ok St. or Tenny
 
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Adjustments to tomorrow's card....

Added to win one more unit on OKST -6.5 -120

Florida 1H -20 -125 to Win 2 Units

Wisky 1H -14 -115 to win 1 Unit

Kansas 1H -20.5 to win 2 Units

Oregon -7/WYO -6 -120 to Win 3 Units

Oregon -7/ OKST -1 -120 to Win 1 Unit


Depending on how things go... looking at Oregon -13, Arizona and K State TT Overs... Will be golfing all day till 6 or 7... listening/playing with the phone all day tracking scores.

GL to all
 
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Kentucky ML +145 Risking 10 Units

Just too much value here for the better team IMO.

Looking at the fav in the night game. This isn't a stronger play IMO than Ok St... just gambling I guess here today w/ value.

Paid horrible juice on Mizzou ML last night 2nd half... stupid play... had Oregon unposted for a huge play and then got more at half making the day end up alright. Disgusted w/ myself when I look back at my card a few weeks ago which would have been 9-1 or something, only losing on Wyoming.
 
Yeah, I finished alright yesterday as I really added more to Oky St., Oregon, and a bit on TCU all unposted.

It's probably not the best money management... but I had 40 units up at risk at times yesterday... so in comparison it's not nearly as much.

I feel like UK has a 50-55% chance to win SU and getting plus money on them is value IMO.

Love that 67% is on UL, but the line has just continued to fall further and further down.
 
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