Week 1 CFB

frankiegotti

frankiegotti

Power Boat Enthusiast
I rank all my plays on a 1-5 unit basis.

One being the weakest and five being the strongest.

(Lines will be derived from either greek or 5 dimes, i will specify)

Leans:

Virginia Tech -23.5: I honestly can not believe this line. Beamer will have his bunch ready to play, especially the defense. The linebacking core has been exceptional in training camp. Their CB tandem that they employ should be able to without problem give the opposing QB fits.

Minnesota -17: That is a lot of wood to be laying even though they are at home against a bowling green team. If it was around 14 i would lay it, because 3 scores just is a little much for me as minny is switching both offensive and defensive schemes.

Texas -37: Is their 2nd string playing is that why this line isn't in the 40's yet? Honestly though, i think texas will have the 2nd best running back tandem in the NCAA this year only comming 2nd to clemson. Colt McCoy is only going to get better as well as having veteran leadership at the WR position. My only question for this team will be the pass rush. although, for this matchup they will still as dominant in years past because they are playing arkansas state.

Will add more later, gotta move some stuff around.

Locked In:

4 Units Texas -37
4 Units FSU -2.5 (-120)
4 Units WVU -23
3 Units FIU +38.5
3 Units Georgia Tech +3
3 Units California -5.5

Adding:

Missisippi State +20 2 Units
Still Looking at Missisippi State, UCONN, App State, and East Carolina.

good health,

fg
 
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frankiegotti said:
I rank all my plays on a 1-5 unit basis.

One being the weakest and five being the strongest.

(Lines will be derived from either greek or 5 dimes, i will specify)

Leans:

Virginia Tech -23.5: I honestly can not believe this line. Beamer will have his bunch ready to play, especially the defense. The linebacking core has been exceptional in training camp. Their CB tandem that they employ should be able to without problem give the opposing QB fits.

Minnesota -17: That is a lot of wood to be laying even though they are at home against a bowling green team. If it was around 14 i would lay it, because 3 scores just is a little much for me as minny is switching both offensive and defensive schemes.

Texas -37: Is their 2nd string playing is that why this line isn't in the 40's yet? Honestly though, i think texas will have the 2nd best running back tandem in the NCAA this year only comming 2nd to clemson. Colt McCoy is only going to get better as well as having veteran leadership at the WR position. My only question for this team will be the pass rush. although, for this matchup they will still as dominant in years past because they are playing arkansas state.

Will add more later, gotta move some stuff around.
Click to expand...

Already on Texas as I expected it to be at least 40+ given their history in openers the past few years.

Thought about Minny, but like you, was hoping for something a little less than 17, so pass for me.

VT is tempting for me at only 23.5 as I think this one has shutout written all over it. ECU may get a cheap TD but could easily see this as a 33-7 type of game at worst. The only reason I am laying off is because there will be so much emotion around this one that it is hard to cap how that will affect things, at least early on in this matchup as ECU isn't a horrible team by any means.

Best of luck!
 
A little history regarding Texas home openers (mostly against Sun Belt):

2002 Texas -35 vs. UNT, final score 27-0
2003 Texas -29 vs. NMSU, final score 66-7
2004 Texas -26 vs. UNT, final score 65-0
2005 Texas -40' vs. ULL, final score 60-3
2006 Texas -41 vs. UNT, final score 56-7

Game time is also 6 pm local so hot and sticky but don't have to go beat up on them in the noonday sun like Texas did against UNT last year (while half the stadium left at halftime).
 
Florida State -1.5: My initial instinct sides to FSU but i still must do more research on this team. Clemson has the best running back tandem in the country and i expect them to try to work it early. Undecided still. If anyone has specific matchup info that would help me substantially.

Oklahoma -40.5: This is another one i am still titer todering b/c of oklahoma's qb situation. The reason i say that is because after about a 3 or 4 TD lead Stoops is going to try different QB's in their to see if he has the best choice in their starting. More good news is that Oklahoma's special teams is supposed to be very good again (another top 10), along with a secondary this is going to be unreal (rated top 5). Should provide plenty of opprotunities for blocking punts and setting up good returns. Also, it is north texas so plan on being bored by halftime.

Georgia Tech +3: They are always very stout on defense. ND QB position is the biggest question mark on the offensive side of the ball. GT is also starting a new QB, but replacing Reggie Ball might be more delightful than a nuscience. GT also has the leading ACC rusher. They get most of their O-Line starters back. I think game will be a turnover friendzy and not many points will be scored something like 10-21.

Georgia: In the offseason i really liked this team. Defense will always be good. Offense i think will really show a lot of things to people this year. Stafford gained muscle mass and stayed up at school all summer with his starting cast of recievers to help with chemistry. Ok state will get a taste of good sec ball when is goes UGA's house. I think UGA wins by 3 td's. makes me nervious though because so much is dependent on the maturation of the QB.

Iowa -11: Bascially because carolina and troy have it, haven't really looked into it yet.
 
USC -?: Average of the last 6 years for idaho yards per carry is 4.9 that they surrendered. With USC having a school bus full of running backs that could start on any major college program, i side with USC. Also, the defensive coordinator Nick Holt for USC was idaho's head coach from 2004-2005 and is a big advantage because he is largely familiar with their sets. Another plus for USC is that idaho let opponents last year past for a average of 61.3% completion percentage, which only means good things for idaho. The bad news about this is that USC must replace all 3 starting wide recievers but the three recievers that are most likely to start, Carrol has been quoted in sayings "this is the fastest group of WR i have had while i have been here."

Idaho loses 3 defensive linemen DE Charles Campbell (9 starts, 28 tackles and 3 sacks)
- DT Ryan Davis (7 starts, 16 tackles, 1 sack)
- DL Dan Aizpitarte (1 sack)

Although, they return the top 6 of 8 and 5 players have 5 or more starts.

In the defensive backfield idaho returns 2 starters, which is most returning in 4 years

Although, they lose depth
FS Tone Taupule (9 starts and 34 tackles)
CB Kiel McDonald ( 10 starts and 31 tackles)
CB Reggie James ( 2 Starts and 11 tackles)

They have a great JUCO transfer in Stanley Franks Sr., which has performed extremely well last year, but i expect him this year to slow his progress as most players usually do their 2nd year.

BOL on this one.
 
1h play for me....too many points carrol may lay off the gas in the 2 H question is can the 3-5 string rbs still nbreak it open fora cover? is this defenseive coach just as passionate abot shutouts as bud foster at vt? if bud foster was coaching usc's def i would def lay the wood he demands the most out of all his players the whole game.
 
Troy, Holt isn't like foster in the sense of how animated he is. He is just considered a very smart guy that calls great defensive plays and makes great adjustments at halftime.

I am with you, i would need to see a 1h line first, i think the absolute most i would lay for a half would be in the 28 range.
 
USC 1st Half is the way I will be hitting this game. I would be very very surprised if Idaho scored in the 1st half against that defense.
 
I just remember all USC's openers. They come out wanting to make a statement. Look at the box scores from the last two years at Arkansas and Hawaii. They continue to pour it on in the 2H. The 43.5 line here scares me, and while I don't have half lines from the last two years, it seems like teams try their best to hang around. It's the second half where USC dominates.
 
Good thread so far Gotti.
As far as UGA-OKst...I would be leary opf Georgia there. If they execute on offense they win due to porous cowboy defense. That being said the Cowboy offense will be unreal and the early surge downward in the line makes me pause for caution as well if I am backing the Dawgs although their value is increasing as line plummets.
 
More Florida State/Clemson stuff:

FSU:

-They have only lost 1 season opener in the last 17 years.
-For people interested in teh week 2, which they play at home, their home openers the last 17 years is also impressive at 17-0 with a average margin of victory by 31 ppg.
- RB position is very strong for this team as they have Antoine smith who was #5 in the NCAA in the 60M and the fulback blocking for him, Joe Surratt, he has 7% body fat and can bench press 355 7 times.
- At depth at Rb they have Marcus Sims, who has starting expierence as a true freshman and could start.
-At reciever they only have someone named Greg Carr who is 6'6 and came into camp at 222, which is an additional 10 pounds he added to himself in the offseason (not mcdonalds burgers either)
-O-Line loses 3 valuable players with significant starting expierence, but 8 of the top 10 return and the OL coach from WVU comes over where his units averaged 264.6 yards per game the last 5 years!
-SPecial teams should be a tp 25 unit like they usually are but it relies heavily on the consistency of Gary Cismesia who was 14 of 20 last year with a long of 53.
- They are loaded at DB, which should not be an issue, including myron rolle and jamie robinson who both started as true freshman.
- At linebacker they get coach chuck amato from nc state and they are as deep as last year but lose some people but somehow they always come to play and rarely have down years.





Clemson:

-They have taken 3 of last 4 from FSU but only 3 of last 8.
-Are 18-2 in home openers
-Bowden has been quoted in saying "i haven't had such inexpierence at QB i've been here"
- Rb, they have the best running back tandem in the country in James Davis and CJ Spiller. I could see them both having 1000 yard seasons.
- WR is troubling as well because they lose their 3 top recievers Chansi Stuckey, Thomas Hunter (TE, 11 starts with 16 receptions avg. 19.1 per), and Andrew Diomande 6 starts.
-Strangley enough, i have never seen a defensive line that loses a #4 overall pick (gaines adams) and looks to get stronger but this unit is looking like it. Three starters return and Ricky Sapp has been groomed to repalce adams, already with 4 sacks from last year, he should fill in nicely.
-secondary should be ok but not great as they lose 4 players with starting expierence, but Deandre Mcdaniel true fresh was in for spring practice and word is that he is great and could start from day 1!!!
-Linebacking core will get better with Tramine Billy comming back to fill the open SLB slot.




In this one i feel FSU has the distinct edge, but if anyone has more info feel free to share!

as always good health.
 
Georgia/Ok. state 7:

Ok state:
-Away games they play very poorly, kind of like a homefield advantage but opposite.
-At QB Bobby Reid is looking good from last year, the summer before he lived off Ok. st. campus and all he did was take snaps and work on the offense it showed as he had 3rd best QB passing efficiency.
-Rb is also talented with Dantrell savage who runs a 4.3 40 and Keith Toston who runs a 4.4 40, they good. Savage was injured last year, it will be interesting if he is the same player. He still finnished with 820 yards and missed 6 games.
-They lose top notch reciever D'Juan Woods but still have Ricky Price, they problem is they have no one in their aresenal, and teams will put a CB and a saftey on price.
-Offensive line should be like last years as they have 7 of the top 10 and 4 back with 5 or more starts.
- D-Line was demolished in the offseason by losing 9. This will clearly be a liability for the cowboys all season long.
-linebacking core is clearly more expierenced as they get top tackler Chris collins back after tearing his acl. Another true fresh in Patrick Lavine started as well as finnishing the #2 tackler. This core will have to carry the team against georgia, if UGA can get good spacing early lookout.
- DB should be the best in years as their top 6 return all with starting expierence, but with the defensive line woes, the DB's may get awful tired covering for minutes at a time.


UGA:
-Under Coach Richt, UGA is 6-0 in home openers with a average margin of victory of 22.6 points.
- At QB Matthew Stafford has been average at best, although with more familiarity of the system and playbook should set him up for greater success in the 07 season. Although he finnished last season with 3 wins against Auburn, Georgia Tech, and Tenessee earning a touchdown to interception ratio of 3-1.
- Rb position will be much improved this year as they get stud true fresh Caleb King, redshirt fresh Knowshon Moreno, and a healthy Kregg Lumpkin. I think this unit will average around 4.6 yards per carry as they are deep and talented.
-At WR they are much improved by getting mohamed massaquoi hopefully he returns to freshman form and shakes the sophmore jinx along with sean bailey returning from a acl injury.
-Defensive line should be weak after losing 4 SEC players of week, but this is UGA and they will always be strong and are getting two redshirt freshman in Demarcus Dobbs and Brandon Wood who should if not start will play right away.
-Linebacking will be a little problem because they are vastly less expierenced with only one linebacker with starting expierence in brandon miller and he must help the other backers in order to try to be a top notch group.
-at DB this unit will be INCREDIBLE, because the only person they lose was 3rd teamer Tra Battle. It will be hard to pass on this unit this year.
-Special teams is going to be very good as well, they should be in the top 10 this year after returning all type of talent and spending extended time in camp with work on special teams.


I lean heavy with UGA in this one, although the matchup is going to be how UGA wills top OSU's Rb's, and UGA's linebacking core is unusually weak.

good health.
 
Penn State/Flordia Intl -38.5:

Penn State:

-PSU has never played FIU before
-Last 22 home openers PSU has outscored opponents 647-357. and in the last 10 they have allowed less than 10 points just twice.
-At QB anthony morelli has proved in the past that he would be a better towel boy than qb, although every year he keeps progressing so this year it think he will continue at a substantially higher rate.
-RB, they lost tony hunt to the draft who was a work horse. They will most likely start Austiin Scott who started 4 games and has averaged 4.6 yards per carry and for depth they have a redshirt fresh in Evan Royster will give him a run for his money as royster is 6'1 211.
-O-Line is very very young but not without talent. The biggest hole to replace will be Levi Brown who was a top 5 pick. On the bright side 6 of the top 10 return with 4 with 5 or more starts. Overall there is much more expierence than 2006 but they still have their best years ahead of them.
-WR's are unbelievable, all 3 may go in the first day of the draft next year if all 3 declare. Jordan Norwood had 8 starts last year, Derrick Williams started 7 games as a TRUE FRESH and was the leading reciever on the team as a true fresh, and Deon Butler had the most expierence from last year with 13 starts. With all 3 staying on campus with morelli this summer, this unit should be the most lethal in teh NCAA's. Below all these recievers are a bunch that have decent hands and run in the 4.4-4.5 range, so WR is not a concern for Jo PA.
-D-Line, last year Jo PA started 3 true freshman and MLB Tim Shaw to the d-line to get his 4.4 speed on the edge. This unit is more expierenced and should be as good if not better than last year.
-Linebacker, (PSU is nicknamed linebacker U by the football community), THey lose Paul Pavlousky, although the top 5 of 6 return and the top 4 all have starting expierence. Dan Conner (2nd leading tackler last year with 113 by the way he started as a true fresh) is moving to MLB and should be a tackling machine once again. This will be a top 10 group in teh NCAA's.
-DB's , they will have no problem defending FIU as they will have a top 3 backfield. Justin King who runs a 4.24 40 and anthony scioroto SS who had a team leading 6 interceptions and earned 1st team big 10 honors.
-On Special Teams, Kevin Kelly should have the leg to make it into the pros as his long is 53 and PSU's return men were both in teh top 10 Derrick Williams PR (12.0) and AJ Wallace KR (24.2)

FIU:
-They haven't won a opening game in 7 years.
-A new coach comes into FIU.
-At QB they have a softmore who is capable but as most new coaches do sometime they give their own recruits a thumb up and a true fresh could start, but i would guess that paul mcCall would start who had a 38% compeltion % last year.
-RB, after averaging 2.3 yards per carry last year, with a improved o-line they should vastly improve but against PSU not likley.
-WR's will be a real problem for FIU as they lose their top 2 WR's and top TE, back ups gained some expierence due to suspensions last year, but don't expect much as between 3 recievers there are 10 starts between them.
-O-Line was very young last year but only allowed 35 sacks which was 7.8% of all offensive plays. They should be better but not against PSU.
-Last year FIU was 112 is pass defense efficiency ratings and should be improved this year but not much which should give morelli some expierence with his recievers in a game setting.
-Special Teams, will struggle as their kicker is 8 or 11 in extra points and his long is 37 yards.



I side with PSU and Over here and 3rd and 4th strings will get expierence in this one.
 
penn state my sleeper for big ten title.

nice info in there.

good luck. go nittany lions ! Go Frankie !
 
I agree with most of your plays. I actually expected FSU to be a slightly bigger favorite opening up....

I actually likes Bowling Green at the opener -19 but its already down to 16.5 so maybe you guys can get your -14

Also consider the first half line on the Hokies when it comes out....thats all I usually play if Im on them as a fav...they tend to allow backdoors. But that was when their offense was a tick better than now
 
Tennessee v. California -5.5:

Tennessee:
-Lamarcus Coker got suspeneded indefinitley by the ncaa, but it UT so they have a aresenal of people that can step in.
-UT has won 12 straight season openers
-Last year UT beat cal by a score of 35-18
-Qb is very good in Erik Ainge, probally the 2nd best pocket passer in the NCAA's this year despite the loss of two lineman that had gotten drafted.
-O-Line i think will be as sufficient or stronger than last year as 4 of the offensive linemen slated to start are rated in the top 10 in their position by rivals.
-WR's, here is the bad news, the offensive coordinator David Cutliffe has been quoted in saying "i can't remember a WR corps that UT fielded that was less expierenced", but the good news is they have four recruits comming in that could play right away.
-D-Line, last year they allowed 4.1 yards per rush which is the worst since 1990, but with teh incomming JUCO and freshman class this unit will be a huge step up from last year with more expierence even with Justin Harrell gone.
-Linebacker, the only loss is marvin mitchell (MLB) who had 13 starts, #1 tackler on team, and 10.5 tackles for loss). Rico McCoy who was out for 2006 is returning and head coach phillip fulmer said "he could have the most talent among linebackers."
- DB's, the #1 DB rated by rivals (Eric Berry) will be attending UT in 2007, although six with starting expierence, so naturally they should be a huge step down from 2006. But to my and your surprise they may actually be better due to berry and several JUCO transfers.
-Special Teams is going to be slightly worse than 2006 due to the loss of K James Wilhoit who hit 18 of 22 FG's with a long of 51. Other than that loss everyone else is back.

California:

-In last years loss to the vols cal gave up 4 td's of 40+ yards, i am pretty sure that won't happen again.
-Over the last 5 years the bears are 4-1 ATS in home openers.
-at QB Nate Longshore is going to be better after having a full year of starting expierence .
-at RB, they lose quality back in marshaun lynch, Justin Forsett will take over but is a step down behind him is James Montgomery which is a redshirt fresh and could be the next lynch but he hasn't been around enough for the staff to know.
-This is one of the nations top recieving corps as they boast a rivals #1, #5, and #8 wide recievers all with starting expierence and also a TE who is a AA candidate.
-O-Line, four players return with starting expierence including 2 that earned 1st team pac 10 last year and only lose 3 linemen. Last year they paved teh way for 5.0 yards per carry, i expect it to be somewhere around 4.2 as they have new runningbacks and a couple new offensive linemen and it will take them a little while to develop chemistry.
-D-Line, They are weak on this front because they lose 4 starters with combined starts of last year along of 44 starts. They are vastly less expierenced, so it may be another year for the line to rely on the linebackers.
-Linebackers, 5 of the top 7 are back and all 5 have starting expierence so it appears the bears will have another top notch LB corps.
- Db, despite the loss of Daymien Hughes (4.4 speed), this unit gains expierence as 3 safties return with starting expierence and a converted CB from WR in now in his second season (Syd"Quan Thompson). I think they will be slightly above average by cal standards.
-Special Teams, they recruited the #1 kicker in Bryan Anger. Also, they return kicker Tom Schneider hitting 15 of 20 FG last year with 3 of his 5 misses comming from 50+ yards! After total special team play finnishing #2 last year they will again be a top 5.


I think this is revenge for cal as many of the players are still on teh roster and will remember the brutal beating last year especially the secondary who got torched last year and i do not believe it happens again.

good health back tommorow.
 
Vthookie, i agree, i think VT will cover the game only because they have so much emotion going into this game per the tradgety last year. First half, sound a little more appetizing than the whole gameonly because i do not know how attament bud foster will be on pitching on shut out on an obvious lesser team.
 
frank, regarding Penn. St, I'm a little concerned that Williams didn't have quite the explosiveness he had his freshman year...you think he'll regain that this year?...
 
that is a good question. The ACL he tore was on his plant foot so that was the reason why he did not look as explosive. I talked to a medical professional about comming back from a injury like that, they said that if in 12 months, if just a tear, they don't return to original capability then they likely will not. Although, since he is a top tier athlete i wouldn't rule anything out.
 
FIU +38.5 3 Units- I think that PSU will be looking forward to week 2 matchup with Notre Dame

California -5.5 3 Units- Cal will be good this season and they will show tennessee week 1 also a revenge game from last year.
 
Thoughts on close plays:

East Carolina- Discipline has been a problem for VT for awhile. No matter how much i hear how beamer recruits kids with character i won't believe it. Also, i think beamer will have problems getting his kids to focus on one game at a time type deal and will be looking ahead to LSU. I will take the points, I would need to get at least 25 to consider it as a play.

West Virgina- The play most depends on if Noel Devine reshirts or not. I say this because he has 4.2 speed and will create HUGE lanes for slaton. Also, pat white has been developing nicely in the offseason into a decent passer, not a heisman passer but will be on the level of a last years morelli.

Missisippi State- A good D-Line and above average O-line will manage to keep it respectable. I am not a fan at all of flynn, plus LSU's QB coach who managed to have Qb's in the last 3 of 4 years who have had completion percentage greater than 62%. Also, they will trying different things offensively and i do not think that LSU will be as successful as most are used to. Miles is a classy guy i can see LSU winning by 21 but not much more than that.

UCONN- Despite playing on the road and laying 5.5, i think they beat duke rather handily even though duke does return all 11 offensive starters.

App State- Will only play this if i can get 32+ other than that i think it will be a crab shoot.

BOL

good health,

fg
 
i agree believe, it is very difficult to get good defensive players and good students in one package.

Adding:

WVU 4 Units -23
 
On four of them with you Frankie. No opinion on the Cal/Tennessee game and I'm taking Western Michigan and the points. I think the Broncos will be able to put 24 points on the Mountaineers and if the WVU puts up 49 (which is certainly possible) then I'll tip my hat and move on. GL this weekend.
 
roch...yea the thing that i have been trying to find out and i have been having trouble getting information on...is whether or not their 5 star recruit Noel Devine is redshirting or not b/c he runs like a 4.3 40 yard dash and if he can be on the field with pat white and steve slaton it is going to open up sooo many holes for that offense.
 
Adding:

Risking 2 Units to win .8 on 9 team parlay

Moneyline:
Arkansas
WVU
Wisconsin
TCU
Texas
Penn State
Virginia Tech
Michigan State
UCLA
 
Amazing. I cannot believe that I like a 9 team parlay that returns 40 percent on the investment but i can't see any of those teams losing. wiscy looks like your biggest threat. good luck with.
 
lol, thanks, yea i thought i would take a shot, i was gonna throw in USC but since they were -225000 it really was not worth it.

i told myself before placing this bet if this hits then i am not doing something like it again because how i could end up costing myself a lot in the long run.
 
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