Week 1 CFB Plays and Discussion

[Mags]

Here's what I have locked in to this point:

Wake Forest -12x (50)
South Carolina -14 (50)
Miami(OH) -3 (130)
Mia-OH ML/Wake -11x/U44 SC-NCST/U40x Mia-Vandy (10)
2H South Carolina -7x/Under 20x (25)
Temple -5 (50)
Temple -1x/Missouri -3 (100)
Wyoming -10 (55)
Pittsburgh -12 (55)
Under 45 ECU-VT/Under 57 FIU-KU (100)
Northwestern -12 (50)
USC -19x (100)
USC -20x (100)
TCU -6 (50)
Under 56 FIU/KU (100)
TX -18/Ark St +24/K St -22x (170)
Auburn -10 2H (100)
Under 55x Kentucky/Lousville (50)
Under 21x 2H Kentucky/Louisville (100)
Colorado -6x 1H (100)


Let's have a great year fellas!

opcorn:

 

[RetroVK]

northwestern thoughts please

 

[TheGarfather]

OK, there is somebody who is going to take USC. LOL

All I heard about all summer was how people were going to take USC, and the Trojans would lay the wood and beat them by 4 TDs but now it comes time to put your money where your mouth is and I think this is one of the few threads where someone actually is still strongly considering them.

GL this season.

 

[boz45]

not a big fan of betting the 1st 2-3 weeks of college because they dont have a pre season game, and special teams can win a game in week 1,2 by its self.

 

[G-Man]

not a big fan of betting the 1st 2-3 weeks of college because they dont have a pre season game, and special teams can win a game in week 1,2 by its self.

Boz.

Your perception is warranted, but do you think the lines in the first few weeks are based on special teams?

Secondly, if you have a team with 20 starters back wouldnt you believe YOU have an edge with that team and its main group of players has the better special team AND can overcome any other team with few players back and an unknown special teams group?

 

[Mags]

northwestern thoughts please

A couple of things jump out in this one. The Cuse away from the dome is never a good situation for them to be in. Secondly, putting them on natural grass adds all the more reasons to bet against them. Lastly, if you take a really good look at what the Northwestern offense did last year it was pretty impressive. The majority of their skill players will be back (7 starters on offense) and 8 return on defense (which wasn't so pretty but at least they have a year under their belt. What makes this a lean and not a play already are two things: 1) Cuse return a good bit of players with game experience as well and more imporantly 2) I think that the Cuse QB Robinson and RB Carter have some real potential.

 

[Mags]

OK, there is somebody who is going to take USC. LOL

All I heard about all summer was how people were going to take USC, and the Trojans would lay the wood and beat them by 4 TDs but now it comes time to put your money where your mouth is and I think this is one of the few threads where someone actually is still strongly considering them.

GL this season.

What can you say about USC, their talant and depth...very similar to the Canes of the late 90's and early 2000's = just keep putting talent into the NFL and keep reloading. As for Virginia, their defense will probably be decent but that offense will be a joke! Peerman is decent but Sewell is just not the guy that's going to get it done. GL to you this season as well bro! :cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

Mags - Sewell is not on the team this year, he is ineligible

 

[Mags]

not a big fan of betting the 1st 2-3 weeks of college because they dont have a pre season game, and special teams can win a game in week 1,2 by its self.

I have always had the most success betting the first couple of weks more than any time of the year. If you do your homework it's pretty easy (I'll get killed this year now for saying that). You know the basics (coaching, who's coming back, who's more talented, depth, etc) and with all things even (no games under the belt) usually that talent taked over. Yeah, there's always going to be surprises but that goes w/o saying. BOL to ya bro. :shake:

 

[Mags]

Boz.

Your perception is warranted, but do you think the lines in the first few weeks are based on special teams?

Secondly, if you have a team with 20 starters back wouldnt you believe YOU have an edge with that team and its main group of players has the better special team AND can overcome any other team with few players back and an unknown special teams group?

See above, couldn't have said it better. G-Man, ALWAYS good to see ya around bro, I'll be bothering you all year again :36_11_6:!

 

[Mags]

Mags - Sewell is not on the team this year, he is ineligible

Damn, looks like someone needs to do some more homework :36_11_6:!

Thanks bro, I think this makes me play this alot sooner that I intended! This is EXACTLY why this site kicks ass, thanks again bro!

:smiley_acbe:

 

[E.T.G.]

Here's what I have locked in to this point:

Wake Forest -12x (55/50)
Wyoming -10 (55/50)

Others that I am leaning to and will certainly welcome any and all opinions:

South Carolina -11x
Oregon State -3x
Michigan -4
Northwestern -12
Pitsburgh -12
Virginia Tech -10
USC -20
Clemson -6
Fresno State +6x

Let's have a great year fellas!

opcorn:opcorn:

On Wyoming, Lean Wake but no play.

Will play SC, waiting on line to drop. Don't know what to expect from Mich, too much unknown, wikll avoid the game. Lean strong to NW, Lean to Pitt, Lean to ECU and the Under, don't believe either team has a playmaker on offense. Lean USC, no opinion on Clemsux except that they should win. With the Fresno game, I know they are BCS killers and all but Shiano will have RU prepared. I don't believe Fresno pulls off the cross-country upset and actually hope they don't so maybe I can get some better value when they come off a bye and face Wisky at home.

 

[Mags]

ETG - I hear ya with waiting out the SC line = my reasoning as well actually. Mishitgan, even though I think Richie Rod likes little boys I do believe the talent is there and that he has no choice but to have that team ready with all of the expectations. I like your reasoning in the ECO/VT game and will take a good hard look into that total although I do anticipate it being a small number. Clemson, my ONLY fear here is that Tommy can EASILY get out-coached in this one...least likely to play this of all of the leans. Fresno, I like all of the return starters and the coach also a little surprised that Shianno is not doing a better job recruiting there. Like the guy alot (I'm a HUGE Miami fan and was hoping he'd come back) I anticipate RU to continue to slip here a little the next couple of years (IMO). Thanks for the inputs!

opcorn:

 

[E.T.G.]

Not so sure I agree w/ Shiano and recruiting. For one, RU has been down for so long, kids in this state don't grow up rooting for them. Guys like Will Hill are easy for Florida to come in and steal because RU has no fence around NJ. Duval Kamara is another name that comesa to mind (WR @ ND) If you are a top recruit would you rather play in the BE in front of 45k or play in Sunny Florida in the SEC in front of 90k for a tradition rich program? Easy choice for me. RU is off to one of their best recruiting class ever this year with some solid kids from out of state. They have 2 (4*) players and 10 (3*) players giving them verbals and 5 are from out of state. Their 2007 class was prob their best and 2008 wasn't bad either but the top talent in NJ will continue to get plucked away from big programs.

 

[Mags]

Not so sure I agree w/ Shiano and recruiting. For one, RU has been down for so long, kids in this state don't grow up rooting for them. Guys like Will Hill are easy for Florida to come in and steal because RU has no fence around NJ. Duval Kamara is another name that comesa to mind (WR @ ND) If you are a top recruit would you rather play in the BE in front of 45k or play in Sunny Florida in the SEC in front of 90k for a tradition rich program? Easy choice for me. RU is off to one of their best recruiting class ever this year with some solid kids from out of state. They have 2 (4*) players and 10 (3*) players giving them verbals and 5 are from out of state. Their 2007 class was prob their best and 2008 wasn't bad either but the top talent in NJ will continue to get plucked away from big programs.

Completely agree that it is NOT EASY to get the talent to go to RU, won't argue that point at all. He's just a great recruiter and I expected more. 07 was a decent class but last year was a bust (from a recruiting stand point = don't think they got in the Top 40 classes). This year is different, I actually think it's better than you perceive it to be. I believe they have 4 4* recruits (landed a HUGE QB commit in Tom Salvage not too long ago).

 

[E.T.G.]

Completely agree that it is NOT EASY to get the talent to go to RU, won't argue that point at all. He's just a great recruiter and I expected more. 07 was a decent class but last year was a bust (from a recruiting stand point = don't think they got in the Top 40 classes). This year is different, I actually think it's better than you perceive it to be. I believe they have 4 4* recruits (landed a HUGE QB commit in Tom Salvage not too long ago).

Yea Savage is a good one but 4* RB Scott from NC just decommitted to attend Duke. Thats not a great look, getting beat out by Duke for a 4* prospect.

:shake:

 

[E.T.G.]

Just to go back to something, Dating back to 2006, NJ recruits who left the state who were 4* or better

Myrone Rolle (5*) FSU
Knowshon Moreno (4*) UGA
Antwine Perez (4*) USC
Jason Adjepong (4*) VT
Andrew Baskin (4*) Cuse
Lou Elides (4*) Penn ST
Joe Torchia (4*) UVA
Duval Kamara (4*) ND
Mike Ragone (4*) ND
Justin Trattou (4*) UF
Tony Logan (4*) Maryland
Will Hill (5*) UF
J.B Fitzgerald (4*) Mich
Brandon Smith (4*) Mich
Marcus Witherspoon (4*) Mich
Dajuan Miller (4*) Oklahoma

 

[Mags]

Had no idea, that definitely hurt. However, I think they still have 4 4*'s

QB Salvage-PA
RB Hayward-NJ
LB Hodges-NJ (who's NICE)
CB Harmon-DE

 

[E.T.G.]

Had no idea, that definitely hurt. However, I think they still have 4 4*'s

QB Salvage-PA
RB Hayward-NJ
LB Hodges-NJ (who's NICE)
CB Harmon-DE

Hodges is a great wrestler, do you use scout? Rivals has the following

Savage = 4
Hayward = 3
Hodges = 3
Harom = 3

 

[Mags]

Just to go back to something, Dating back to 2006, NJ recruits who left the state who were 4* or better

Myrone Rolle (5*) FSU
Knowshon Moreno (4*) UGA
Antwine Perez (4*) USC
Jason Adjepong (4*) VT
Andrew Baskin (4*) Cuse
Lou Elides (4*) Penn ST
Joe Torchia (4*) UVA
Duval Kamara (4*) ND
Mike Ragone (4*) ND
Justin Trattou (4*) UF
Tony Logan (4*) Maryland
Will Hill (5*) UF
J.B Fitzgerald (4*) Mich
Brandon Smith (4*) Mich
Marcus Witherspoon (4*) Mich
Dajuan Miller (4*) Oklahoma

Interesting, I would have thought Penn State would have had more.

 

[Mags]

Hodges is a great wrestler, do you use scout? Rivals has the following

Savage = 4
Hayward = 3
Hodges = 3
Harom = 3

Right on, have always been a Scout guy for what ever reason...my buddy endorses Rivals.

 

[E.T.G.]

yea I am a rivals guy, no complaints what so ever from me. Guys over at gamecockcentral.com do an awsome job. Never had a scout membership so no opinion but funny how rankings on players differ so much. Shows you just how much of a crapshoot recruiting is.

 

[Mags]

yea I am a rivals guy, no complaints what so ever from me. Guys over at gamecockcentral.com do an awsome job. Never had a scout membership so no opinion but funny how rankings on players differ so much. Shows you just how much of a crapshoot recruiting is.

It truly is a crap shoot. I was making that exact point the other day going through Miami's commits over the years (from like 03-06) and showing the 4 and 5 stars that they landed and how alot of them turned out = crazy! Perfect example, Kyle Wright was the #4 or 5 QB in the country coming out of highschool (5* kid). Additionally, take a look at the top 10-15 picks in the draft over the last 10 years and alot of those are not even in the league anymore...it's crazy!

 

[boz45]

I have always had the most success betting the first couple of weks more than any time of the year. If you do your homework it's pretty easy (I'll get killed this year now for saying that). You know the basics (coaching, who's coming back, who's more talented, depth, etc) and with all things even (no games under the belt) usually that talent taked over. Yeah, there's always going to be surprises but that goes w/o saying. BOL to ya bro. :shake:

If it works for you, keep doing it. and good luck. It hasn’t worked for me in the past. There’s more factors that I think that play into it. When camps end and the students come back, the players have many distractions ,move into their places, partying and chasing tail. And you have teams like Ohio st that don’t start classes until October(huge advantage) Weather (heat) can play a factor, teams going south the 1st 2 weeks. I look at it as there are so many distraction for these young kids, they can over look a opponent early and or not be focused. Some of you think this is crazy but I did play college ball, so I have seen it and done it.

 

[Mags]

If it works for you, keep doing it. and good luck. It hasn’t worked for me in the past. There’s more factors that I think that play into it. When camps end and the students come back, the players have many distractions ,move into their places, partying and chasing tail. And you have teams like Ohio st that don’t start classes until October(huge advantage) Weather (heat) can play a factor, teams going south the 1st 2 weeks. I look at it as there are so many distraction for these young kids, they can over look a opponent early and or not be focused. Some of you think this is crazy but I did play college ball, so I have seen it and done it.

What you just said I agree with 100%. I too played college ball (All be it Division 3 - defensive back), and it verifies my point IMO. If this is the case across the country the general ability and talent of the players will rise to the top. The better the players, coaching, game experience (returning starters), etc will come out on top...usually.

 

[Mags]

Took a couple of those leans off of there as I'm trying to narrow down the field more and more every day. I appreciate the thoughts fellas.

 

[Mags]

added a couple of plays, missed USC at -20 as it's now -20x...might regret that.

 

[Mags]

Just added temple (that's hard to say) to the card.

 

[Mags]

added Fresno State to the card as I anticipate the line going down slightly.

 

[Mags]

Just a few more days boys and girls opcorn:

 

[pags11]

let's do this mags...3 more days!...

 

[Mags]

Thanks Pags, you too bro, excited as hell!

 

[RetroVK]

drooling at your fresno st number. gl mags.

 

[RambleOn]

BOL bro. :shake:

 

[Mags]

drooling at your fresno st number. gl mags.

Knew that fucker was gonna go down
BOL to ya this year bro!
:tiphat:

 

[Mags]

BOL bro. :shake:

Well, well, well, looks who decided to visit us here in the CFB forum! How'd the BAR go bro? Results yet? Ready for football, plays in yet? Come on, give me something! opcorn:

 

[Mags]

Added South Carolina (tailing ETG) and looking hard at the UNDER in this game and also the UNDER in the Vandy/Miami(OH) game as well.

 

[Mags]

Added Miami(OH), only other play that I am considering for tonight is a parlay with UNDER SC/NCST and UNDER Vandy/Miami(OH)

GL to all!

 

[Mags]

added shits and giggles parlay

 

[Mags]

Added a couple for today, hopefully getting abck on track here after an unexpected slow start. BOL to everyone on this wonderful first Saturday of CFB!

 

[Fondybadger]

Hopefully Pittsburgh can get things going for us today

 

[Mags]

Yeah man, hope you're right. Hey, BOL to ya this season bro, always good to hear from ya!

 

[Mags]

Alright, finally have some momentum going here, added Auburn 2H, looking to finish strong here!

 

[Mags]

One more, come on Mizzou!!!

rayer

 

[Mags]

Alright, slow start to the day but a very strong finish...back in the groove that was expected. Lean to The Ville today, plays to come later. Quick shout out to Horn as his write-ups were very helpful

 

[Mags]

Added Louisville/Kentucky total to the card. Not a bad rebound yesterday, now at 11-6 +545 YTD with 2 plays pending. Also, leaning to Colorado in the night game.

GL to all!

opcorn:

 

[Mags]

Alright guys, added my last play of the day (Colorado 1H), I'm heading off to a fantasy draft. BOL to everyone, it's been a pretty good weekend to this point, let's bring home a couple more winners. See you all later or tomorrow morning.

:tiphat:

opcorn:

 

[Mags]

Great way to end the weekend! On to week 2!

:smiley_acbe: