Week 1 CFB Discussion - Games of 8/29 through 9/2

1ST HALF SIDES & TOTALS (LINES UPDATED AS OF 11:00 A.M. THURSDAY)

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M.O.T said:
Isn’t that good based on your position, or did you not lock it in yet?
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Didn't lock it in yet. Managing my bankroll generally prevents me from betting early. I try to use Kelly principles on the one hand, and on the other hand I don't want to tie up my money when there is another day of betting before the Rice game.

I do have it in a couple parlays:

Win8/24/19 7:00pm College Football 292 Florida Under 28 -105* vs Miami Florida
Win8/24/19 10:30pm College Football 293 Hawaii Over 29½ -110* vs Arizona U
Pending8/30/19 6:00pm College Football 146 Rice +24 -120* vs Army
Pending8/30/19 7:15pm College Football 153 Rutgers -14 -120* vs Massachusetts
Pending8/31/19 12:00pm College Football 176 Mississippi +195* vs Memphis

and

Win8/24/19 10:30pm College Football 293 Hawaii +11½ -110* vs Arizona U
Pending8/30/19 6:00pm College Football 146 Rice +24 -120* vs Army
Pending8/31/19 12:00pm College Football 176 Mississippi +6 -110* vs Memphis
Pending8/31/19 3:30pm College Football 182 South Carolina/North Carolina Under 63 -110*
Pending8/31/19 7:00pm College Football 192 Boise State/Florida State Under 53½ -110*
 
B.A.R. said:
UCLA and Cincy...discuss!
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Cincy oline doesn’t have much time together but they have some really big boys up front!!

On the other hand bruins only replacing one guy from last season line but it is LT where cincy has some good pass rushers to throw at the new guy! Does chip understand protection schemes?

I believe cincy will be able to run ball down Bruins throat again.

I heard cincy lost best defensive player wihich obviously a concern.

Ultimately I feel like the group of 5 school at home against a very beatable power 5 has to make a statement here and I think they will. I got bearcats when it ticked down to -2.5 the other day.

Lot of guys here know and follow ncaa fb more closely than me so certainly not suggesting my opinion on this subject is the best. Lol
 
I like what been said bout rice but hell it all way down to 21.5. Still makes a lot of sense to me.

don’t love teasing ncaa like nfl but certain games that feel more nfl (lower totals w smaller spreads) I think a case can be made they useful, used w gators and under Saturday and like a 6 point w utes and under for thu. I know rivalry and all plus most guys I respect seem to like BYU but this game just seems so hugely important to not only utes but the whole pac-12. I’m tempted to lay the -6.
 
CFB week #1 tidbits. Play an UNDER with a total of 48 or less? Yes you should. . Since 2015 week #1 games with an O/U total of 48 or less have gone 10-21-1 O/U (67.7% under)
 
Worst NCAAF ATS as a favorite over the past 2 seasons

(min. 12 games)

Kentucky: 1-11
Western Kentucky: 3-10
Louisville: 4-10
Navy: 4-9-1
Colorado State: 4-9
USC: 6-13-1
 
The underdog has covered 7 of the last 9 meetings between BYU and Utah, winning 3 outright.

Eliminate a 44 point Utah win in 2011 and the other 8 meetings have been decided by a combined 36 points.
 
Over the last five years, 35 teams have returned at least 80 percent of their production, 28 of them (80 percent) improved, and 17 (49 percent) improved their adjusted scoring margin per game by at least six points.Last year’s top 10 teams in returning production (omitting Liberty, which was in its first year in FBS) saw their win total increase by a combined 25 games, from 45 to 70, in 2018. Michigan State regressed by three wins, and Mississippi State regressed by one. The other eight all improved.

Thus far for 2019, seven teams return 80 percent or more, including Tennessee.

Meanwhile, 80 teams returned no more than 50 percent of their production; 65 of them (81 percent) regressed, 36 (45 percent) by at least a touchdown.Last year’s bottom 10 teams saw their win total decrease by a combined 27 games, from 76 to 49. LSU and FIU each managed to improve by one win, and Colorado held steady at 5-7. The other seven all fell by at least two wins, and four (Navy, Colorado State, Louisville, and CMU) all fell by at least four.

For now, 13 teams are at 50 percent or lower, including Washington, Texas, and Georgia Tech.
 
Bookmaker


Biggest ATS Liability: Clemson
63% of $$
64% of Bets

Biggest $-Line Liability: Utah
92% of $$
87% of Bets

Biggest Total Liability: UCLA/CIN Under
78% of $$
46% of Bets

Dog of the Night: FIU
56% of $$
53% of Bets
 
Clemson is a 36.5 favorite vs. GT tonight

Under Dabo Swinney, the Tigers are 12-24 ATS as favorites of three or more TDs .... Including, 6-12 ATS vs. ACC opponents
 
TCU over the past 3 seasons

7th worst ATS record in all of college football (14-26 ATS)

2nd worst home record ATS (3-16 ATS)
 
Purdue has been a favorite of 4 points or more vs teams not named Illinois 5 times under Jeff Brohm.

Purdue has lost all five of those games, including three times as a favorite of at least 9.5 points.
 
Since 2010, the Pac-12 and SEC have played 14 times. Pac-12 teams are 4-9-1 ATS (4-10 SU) in those games and 2-7-1 ATS in the underdog role.

The only underdog to win outright in that span was Cal in 2017 as a 7-point home underdog vs Ole Miss.
 
Bushleague said:
Over the last five years, 35 teams have returned at least 80 percent of their production, 28 of them (80 percent) improved, and 17 (49 percent) improved their adjusted scoring margin per game by at least six points.Last year’s top 10 teams in returning production (omitting Liberty, which was in its first year in FBS) saw their win total increase by a combined 25 games, from 45 to 70, in 2018. Michigan State regressed by three wins, and Mississippi State regressed by one. The other eight all improved.

Thus far for 2019, seven teams return 80 percent or more, including Tennessee.
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It's encouraging to see Texas State at #3 and Rice at #5 on that list.
 
Bushleague said:
Since 2010, the Pac-12 and SEC have played 14 times. Pac-12 teams are 4-9-1 ATS (4-10 SU) in those games and 2-7-1 ATS in the underdog role.

The only underdog to win outright in that span was Cal in 2017 as a 7-point home underdog vs Ole Miss.
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Going back to 2011, the SEC teams are undefeated and also 7-0 ATS by an average of 12.8 points if both teams won 7+ games the previous year.
 
Best home teams ATS since 2016:


UAB 10-1-1 (90.9%)
Fresno St 13-4 (76.5%)
Buffalo 13-5 (72.2%)
Arizona St 13-6 (68.4%)
Penn St 13-6-2 (68.4%)
Wash St 14-7 (66.7%)
UCF 14-7 (66.7%)
Iowa St 13-7 (65%)
Miss St 13-7 (65%)
Middle Tenn 11-6 (64.7%)
 
Top Under teams in 2018


North Texas 11-1-1 (91.7%)
Washington 11-3 (78.6%)
California 10-3 (76.9%)
Miss St 9-3 (75%)
Louisiana Monroe 9-3 (75%)
Fresno St 10-4 (71.4%)
Arkansas St 9-4 (69.2%)
BYU 9-4 (69.2%)
Lou Tech 9-4 (69.2%)
San Diego St 9-4 (69.2%)
Mich St 9-4 (69.2%)
 
At least one underdog of +600 or greater has won outright in Week 1 of the college football season in 9 of past 10 seasons.
 
SEC vs. ACC in regular season games since 2005:

SEC is 52-45-1 ATS

SEC as a favorite: 32-21-1 ATS

On neutral field SEC 10-5 ATS
 
John Sheeran, risk manager at FanDuel Sportsbook at the Meadowlands in Jersey


No. 15 Utah Utes at Brigham Young Cougars – Open: +6; Move: +5.5; Move: +5; Move: +5.5; Move: +6; Move: +6.5

“We went down to 5 on Monday night, but Utah was bet back to -6.5 last night" ... “Currently, about 70 percent of the action is for Utah, and we will need BYU to cover here.”


UCLA Bruins at Cincinnati Bearcats – Open: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -3; Move: -2.5

“We opened this in June at Cincy -3.5. It hit 4 for a day or so, but went down to 3.5, 3 and then 2.5 on Monday,” Sheeran said, noting 55 percent of tickets are still on the Bearcats" ... “Big move for the Under. We were as big as 62, and it was continually bet down to 57.5. We just (took) a decent four-figure bet on the Under, so we moved it to 57.”


Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at No. 1 Clemson Tigers – Open: -33.5; Move: -34; Move: -34.5; Move: -35; Move: -35.5; Move: -36; Move: -36.5; Move: -37

“We opened the reigning champion Tigers as 33.5-point favorites back in June. They were bet up through the numbers to -37 now,” Sheeran said. “We’re currently seeing about a 3/1 ratio in favor of Clemson, and a Yellow Jackets upset would be a great start to the season.”

Of course, Sheeran recognizes an upset is highly unlikely, and said his shop would do well enough to a Georgia Tech cover. FanDuel also has a couple of Clemson proposition offerings drawing interest.

“We are excited to see what Trevor Lawrence is able to do with a new team of skill players. We have a prop up on his passing yards at 269.5, with most of the support coming in on the Over,” Sheeran said. “Travis Etienne Over 102.5 rushing yards has also been popular.”


Kent State Golden Flashes at Arizona State Sun Devils – Open: -26.5; Move: -26; Move: -25.5; Move: -25; Move: -24.5

Despite the line tightening a couple points, FanDuel is rooting for Kent State tonight.

“About a 3/1 money ratio in favor of Arizona State at this number (24.5). We need the ‘dog,” Sheeran said. “The total was bet up from 60 this morning to 61.5 now, so we will want the Under.”
 
Steam


UCLA / CINN Under 61.5
GT / CLEM Over 34.5 (1st Half)
TEX ST / A&M Under 58
UTAH / BYU Over 23 (1st Half)
 
The over is 7-1 in Louisville's last 8 games

The over is 7-0 in Notre Dame's last 7 road games in September

The total has gone over in 7 of Alabama's last 8 games in week 1

The over is 4-1-1 in Oregon's last 6 games vs SEC teams
 
Like it when my leans aren't yielding over 60% consensus of bets.

Wake, Rutgers, and Purdue all look to be modest sides in terms of public love.
 
Colorado has won 4 straight over Colorado State by an average of 21.5 ppg. In last year's down year, Colorado won 45-13 and are 8-1 ATS the last 9 meetings

Colorado St gave up 452 ypg last year
 
Randy Madayag, supervisor at The Mirage sportsbook on the Vegas Strip


No. 17 Wisconsin Badgers at South Florida Bulls – Open: +10; Move: +10.5; Move: +11.5; Move: +12.5; Move: +13; Move: +13.5; Move: +13; Move: +12.5; Move: +12; Move: +11.5; Move: +10.5; Move: +11; Move: +11.5; Move: +11

There was a surge of Wisconsin action early this month, buyback on South Florida throughout this week, and now bettors are back on the Badgers’ bandwagon.

“Everyone’s on Wisconsin. Right now, it’s a small five-figure decision" ... “Wisconsin is a popular team today. Tickets are 2/1 on Wisconsin, and a lot of parlays are including the Badgers. We need South Florida.”



Rice Owls at Army Black Knights – Open: -23.5; Move: -22; Move: -23; Move: -22; Move: -22.5; Move: -23.5; Move: -23; Move: -23.5

“We’re taking a lot on Army right now. We lose like $50,000"

“It’s a 4/1 ticket count on Army, and the Knights are on everyone’s parlays”



Oklahoma State Cowboys at Oregon State Beavers – Open: -16.5; Move: -16; Move: -15; Move: -14

Although the line moved toward the host Beavers for the last game of the night, the number has been steady at 14 for three days, and the Cowboys are a liability for MGM books.

“The ticket count is 4/1 on Oklahoma State,” Madayag said. “From what I’m seeing, Oklahoma State will be the late public play tonight.”
 
When the 'books' say they really need someone, public this - public that. They're actually full of shit.
 
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