Week 1 Bullsheet

bull

bull

Coattailing Cheerleader
Here are my plays so far:
Miami O ML @+195
Tulsa -4.5 @+105 ( you can get better now)
Iowa -12 @+104
Holy Cross +24 @ -115 ( vs UMass)
Likely additions:
Toledo
Troy
Duke
Wake
Memphis
Arizona
Florida Atl
Army
some of the above would be at ML
Under consideration:
Oregon St- under 7
Syracuse
California
Villanova (vs Maryland)
Delaware ( as Wm & Mary )
Happy hunting, everybody
 
Bull - Like the HC play as I think they are getting about 7 too many, but even with that said I still didn't pull the trigger on it as UMass's offensive ability to put 40+ up against pretty much anyone makes me shy away a bit.

I also liked the Blue Hens at 3.5 but waited too long and next thing I know the line had jumped to 5, so that one lost value for me at that point.

I was also looking at McNeese and Pine Bluff, so let me know if you had any thoughts on those two, as I value your insight on those under the radar games big time, thanks!
 
yum yum a holy cross sighting.

match your last year performance in d1aa and you become a legend. bol... btw if you have time and the inclination can you give your reasoning on that umass game ?
 
holy cross - umass

first - let me explain that I do not carry names of players around in my head. coaches -YES , players - no. And I don't cite a lot of numbers but rely on others to do that for me.

Keepers has UMass # 1 in FCS ratings.
I don't agree with that, but they will be good.
These teams are about 50 miles apart and haven't played for a long time that I can remember. Both have the QBs returning and HCs is supposed to be very very good.
Street & Smith picks them to win their league ( Lehigh, Lafayette have been dominant there ) and I don't disagree with that assessment. HC are supposed to be much improved this year. UMass lose their excellent RB Bayless, but I don't place to much emphasis on that. The OL is what makes it all happen; nevertheless, Bayless was a little special. Holy Cross losses were minimal.
I do think 24 is a big number here, and especially for an opening game against a non-hated rival right down the highway and with game against a team they've had trouble with (Colgate) the following week.. I dislike laying 115 but I thought the number likely might move down rather than up, and with no competition from Pinnacle this year - 5Dimes might not drop to 110 like they did last year.
CB- those teams are outside my geographic range , but I'll take a look.
Finally - the bad news.
I would love to repeat last year's numbers in FCS (1-AA). I relied quite a bit on a guy who wrote on 1-AA only for the Sports Network. It was not a gambling column but it was chock full of information and was very useful in picking winners in close ball games ( my preferred type of play, by the way)
Anyway, Matt Dougherty has left Sports Network and to date hasn't been replaced.
Anyway, thanks for the kind words - all - and I hope to make a contribution to the success of this forum this year.:cheers:
 
McNeese and Pine Bluff

I was also looking at McNeese and Pine Bluff, so let me know if you had any thoughts on those two, as I value your insight on those under the radar games big time, thanks!<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
__________________
CarolinaBlue
CB-
Here's what little I know about these two.
McNeese won their conf last year, went to Montana in playoff and lost 31-7 or thereabouts. No disgrace in that. They are picked by Street & Smith to win their (mediocre) conf this year. In fact, S & S give a fairly glowing report. .
". . . . Coach Matt Viator stepped into a situation made for disaster after the sudden departure of previous HC in early October. The former OC led MSU to 5 victories in the last 6 contests en route to league title. Considering his team returns a near sweep of the Southland's top players, imagine what he can do with a year's preparation.
WR S. Whitehead- 2006 conf POY heads into fall riding 17 game streak with at least one reception and more than 3000 careeer all purpose yards. Soph QB D Fourreaux moved the ball to Whitehead and others , plus is able to keep defenses off balance with a running ability ( 377 yards < ???? > ) that helped make him the league's freshman of the year. Senior DE Bryan Smith ranked among 1-AA top 10 for sacks and tackles for loss last season, earning conf POY honors."
Sagarin has McNeese at # 148 out of 242 with a rating of 52.16
Keepers has them #14 in 1-AA with a rating of 69.54 Portland State their opening game opponent is # 108 and 60.94 and# 17 at 62.98 respectively. They beat New Mexico 17-6 in their opener at Albuquerque last year. New head Coach this year. Some guy named Jerry Glanville. I'm not sure I've ever heard of him LOL . His OC comes with him from Hawaii.
This is close to a pickem ballgame. Too tough for me to call.
Ark-Pine Bluff are picked to win the West Division of their 10 team conf.
8-4 LY, . . . " took a hit on the OL with 4 starters graduated, but coach Mo Forte signed 10 linemen in the most recent recruiting class. QB Chris Wallace, SWAC reigning POY, RB M Mallett, and WR J Jones were all conf and all return this year. While scoring may not be a problem, defending against it may be. Forte will look for LBs Turner and Dunn and DBs Franks and Thonton to shore things up.
A-PB are # 210 and 36.11 by Sagarin; #80 and 47.01 by Keepers.
They play conf member Mississippi Valley State in the opener.
MVSU are picked 4 out 5 in the other side of the conf by S & S.
MVSU beat A-PB 10-0 LY, and have the home date this year.
Sagarin has them # 219 at 31.93; Keepers # 92 at 40.14
This one looks too tough for me too, altho I lean toward APB - but the OL question is a concern. MVSU breaks in new QB, always a minus with me in season openers.
McNeese visits Lousiana-Laf next week - I would not expect a ton of points.
A-PB later goes to New Mexico St. I wonder what that number will be??
That's it. I'll think about APB maybe, but not at -115.
GL
 
Thanks bull, appreciate the response.

I have had GWebb as a lean for the last few weeks but haven't pulled the trigger yet as I am trying to figure out if they will be able to put some points up on the board against the Ohio D. I know that McRae is going to get his 200+ against the GW D, so my view is that the clock will be my friend in this one, especially in the 2H as Ohio should have a comfortable lead by that point and might pull McRae by the 4th. This is really a battle of 2 one dimensional teams as Ohio is all run and GW is all pass. I like the GW experience on both sides of the ball, and I think they have a chance to exploit the Bobcat secondary if GW can put some semblance of a rushing attack together. If not they I may just have to hope for Ohio to run out of time before putting up enough to cover. At the end of the day, just not sure if GW will be able to get more than 7 on the board though, but the 32.5 is appealing as I am thinking 31-7 at worst. Thoughts?
 
towson and gardner webb

green: there is a noticeable difference in class between the two conferences these teams play in. And aside from Albany's shocking upset
of Delaware last year, most of the games have been big scores by the Colonial teams. I'm also aware that Towson is getting better each year. Weren't they a doormat just afew years back?
But Cen Conn is no cupcake, one of the 3 better teams in their league.
They have lost a stud running back- Hairston- who is in NFL camp somewhere I think.
Have you noticed that the line has dropped from 17 to 14* ??
This is a tough one to call, and you may know more about Towson than I do. No play here, but GL.
Incidentally, I have decided to remove Delaware as a possible play. I think I may have been influenced by S & S write-up, but Delaware since their championship year in 2003 have lost 4, then 5, then 6 games. Other side of coin- Wm & Mary have been regressing also. Aside from last year 's game, these meetings have been under the 5 point spread, with W & M winning one SU. No play for me.
Cb - I know little about G-Webb aside from what they do vs Southern Conf teams. This would not give me much encouragement, even at 30 points against a team 2 levels up in class, let's say.
However, assuming GW could sqeeze out a Touchdown, I believe Ohio has gone over 35 points just twice in Solich's two years- with a high of 42.
THat would make GW a viable possibility.
The problem I have with games like this - and I know a lot of you guys have success laying big points with favs - is that there are so many variables in CFB that make the outcome of evry game ATS an uncertainty.
When you add to this what the coach might decide to do vs a mismatched opponent, it just places another variable in an altogether difficult equation. This is why you will see my card has almost nothing but lo point games. My problem -LOL- is that I like all low point ball games and the challenge of trying to come up with a winner. My card tends to be larger than most.
As for week one, we both have Iowa and we lock horns on the UConn-Duke game. Good health on that one, and good luck on all the rest. Cheers
bull
 
GL on the season Bull, the Miami Ohio play looks good to me as well. btw - agree with you on Matt Dougherty, he really wrote some great columns. Wonder where he went?
 
Thanks for the response Bull. I missed out on the 32.5 so now a no play for me as it dropped a full 2 last night. Figure its for the best though as I shouldn't be considered a game like that with so many lingering thoughts in my head about it. Now of course, GWebb will probably win SU, but that goes without saying haha.

I am strictly a small favs player in cbb and also once the first week or two of cfb wraps up. The first week for me is almost all big favs though as this is the best spot to jump on those IMO. Historically speaking however, I tend to focus on home favs laying between 1-3 when I can, as those are the money makers for me in both cbb and cfb.

Thanks again!
 
updated bullsheet

These additions
Memphis ML @ +130
Iowa State -4 @ +104
Army +5 1/2 @ +106
Army ML 1/2 @ +206
No longer likely additions:
Syracuse - Can't see anything in their favor except Carrier Dome
California - Nobody likes Tennessee, so I just don't get that warm feeling
Delaware - Since their championship year of 2003, they have lost 4,5, and 6 games. Although W & M is also regressing, the scores in this series - excluding last year - have all been under the number and W & M won one straight up.
I'll be a adding a few more Saturday games after the juice drop at betjamaica Friday evening.
Updated Card
Miami O ML @+195
Tulsa -4.5 @+105 ( you can get better now)
Iowa State -4 @ +104
Iowa -12 @+104
Holy Cross +24 @ -115 ( vs UMass)
Memphis ML @+130
Army +5 1/2 @ +106
Army ML 1/2 @ +206
Still alive
Toledo
Troy
Duke
Wake
Arizona
Florida Atl
Villanova (vs Maryland) no play if 5Dimes keeps it at -115
 
friday night add-ons

Decent start last night at 2-1 with a ML win on Miami O
Happy to add a huge 4-0 day at Flushing Meadows. :smiley_acbe:

Friday night add-ons, all @ -105
Duke +4.5
Wake +6
Arizona +3.5
Toledo +6.5
Troy +23
Florida Atl -2
Still considering New Mexico, Charleston, So, and Arkansas Pine Bluff
GL to all.
 
coastal carolina

vegaskyle said:
any lean on the coastal carolina game bull ?
Click to expand...
vegas- I like Coastal Carolina there. Last I saw it was -115 getting 17 points. Despite the fact I don't like that juice, I'll probably play it. Ark Pine Bluff -3 also a possibility.
Villanova is down to +28 vs Maryland.
I shoulda grabbed it at 32.5.
Without Pinnacle, I guess I'm just going to have to swallow that 115 this year.
GL
 
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