Week 1 ~ 2021

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Damn glad to see another season begin tonight, even if NFL is super tough to win at, it's easily the most entertaining for me to watch.

Buccaneers -8.5

Buccaneers open at home against the Cowboys. Dak didnt play preseason as he was nursing the shoulder injury. Zack Martin wont play for the Cowboys and Jordan Whitehead has been ruled out for the Buccaneers. Buccaneers brought back most of the starters and they get OJ Howard back from injury. Cowboys return key pieces this year and will hope to stay healthy. Buccaneers look like the more dominate team on both sides of the ball, on paper.

X-Factors
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  1. Zeke/Cowboys run game. The best way to keep Brady off the field is ball control/time of possession. The big focus will be on Dak and has shoulder, but Zeke plays a big role in this game. Cowboys don't want Dak throwing the ball a pot this early and want to establish the run. Problem for them, is they get the Buccaneers Front 7. If they Cowboys can establish Zeke to balance their offense, Cowboys have a good chance to cover. Dak and his 3 stud WRs will make their plays. Its Zeke that'll decide if they can capitalize on the balance offense/open up the playbook.
  2. Cowboys defense. The Cowboys defense was terrible last year. They reworked the defense by signing Neal from the Falcons, drafting Parsons, and other players. The strength in the Cowboys defense is the LB spot. The problem is the Edge depth and secondary is still a big question mark. The Buccaneers have a ton of talent on offense and will put up points. Cowboys defense doesn't need to be shutdown, but they need to show better resistance than a broken sink faucet.
  3. Offensive Lines. This applies more to the Cowboys, but the Buccaneers can be impacted here. Both teams on paper have good OLs. Cowboys OL will face a huge task of protecting Dak against Buccaneers Front 7. No Zack Martin is a concern, but the Cowboys IOL does have depth to fill the hole with some talent. If they Cowboys can keep Dak from getting attacked early on, that'll be a huge boost. For the Buccaneers, not sleeping in the Cowboys Front 7 is key. Like I said, the LB core is strong to play both run and pass coverage. If the Buccaneers take the Cowboys Front 7 for granted, the Cowboys could get some impact defense plays on Brady/Buccaneers run game.
With that said, I like the Bucs at 8-8.5. Buccaneers have the better defense and I think will have a better offensive impact (especially on the run game). Cowboys could keep it close if Dak finds his rhythm and starts to throw the ball a lot/use the WR weapons they have. But since line is already 9 or more, I think I will wait and try and get something better in-game.
 
NFL
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LAST - [0-2 -5U]
2021 - [0-2 -5U]
  • 3/2.86 Chiefs -5 -105
  • 3/2.86 Packers / Saints UNDER 49½ -105
  • 3/2.88 JETS (NYJ) +3½-104
  • 3/2.63 TEXANS (HOU) +3½-114
  • 3/2.94 PACKERS (GB) -3½-103


randoms...
Saints/Packers U50 ...the Saints were under machines in the 2nd half last year. In their L11 games, they went under 8 times, by an avg of nearly 11 points per game. In the offseason they lost Brees, Jared Cook, and Emmanuel Sanders. Michael Thomas will not play this week, and they return most of their key guys on defense. They will likely run the ball and try to shorten the game, which is always good for unders. On the Packers side of things, they added 0 starters on offense in free agency. They lost All-Pro Center Corey Linsley to the Chargers, and All-Pro LT David Bahktiari is out for the first 6 week while recovering from a torn ACL. In week one against the great Saints defensive line, I think Rodgers could be pressured all game. Both teams spent 1st round picks on defensive players, and I think this under has great value all the down to 48




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