Week 0 Discussion Thread

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Illinois 2-0 ATS vs Neb the last 2 years and 3 years ago they lost 54-35 but +17.5

Does ILL have better OL and DL than Nebraska?
 
NM State did have two games in March after their 2020 season cancelled. They were blown out by Tarleton St and beat Dixie St. Only showing they have 3 starters back on offense from the 2019 season and 0 on defense. Utep is listed as having 11 starters on offense back and 8 on defense.

Pretty interesting game. Huge rivalry. NM st has actually won 3 in a row in the series. Line opened at 9.5 for Utep but is down to 7.5 at most places now.
 
CPA-hole said:
NM State did have two games in March after their 2020 season cancelled. They were blown out by Tarleton St and beat Dixie St. Only showing they have 3 starters back on offense from the 2019 season and 0 on defense. Utep is listed as having 11 starters on offense back and 8 on defense.

Pretty interesting game. Huge rivalry. NM st has actually won 3 in a row in the series. Line opened at 9.5 for Utep but is down to 7.5 at most places now.
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Good stuff.

I remember the Tartleton game well.

Obviously tough to cap the spring team for this year.
 
This should be a game that UTEP would win easily. They showed last year they have some players and some capability. Historically speaking UTEP is 1-4 ATS as favorites under Dimel with two outright losses. This undoubtedly would be his best team yet.
 
s--k said:
This should be a game that UTEP would win easily. They showed last year they have some players and some capability. Historically speaking UTEP is 1-4 ATS as favorites under Dimel with two outright losses. This undoubtedly would be his best team yet.
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This is the year for the fighting @RetroVK 's to shine!
 
s--k said:
This should be a game that UTEP would win easily. They showed last year they have some players and some capability. Historically speaking UTEP is 1-4 ATS as favorites under Dimel with two outright losses. This undoubtedly would be his best team yet.
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I think I agree. I'm seeing 7 now. Think I'd play Utep at that number.
 
Yes, earlier in the ML thread I questioned just the fact of UTEP as a favorite and the typical results that has yielded, but at a certain point it is hard to argue what should happen in this game, UTEP should win this game and have been building for improvement. I don't know what New Mexico State has been doing, I was not familiar with any of their spring games - haven't seen anything positive from them since the end of 2019 which seems like forever ago since most of the guys who were still around after that transferred out last year. It would actually be quite an embarrassment if UTEP were to lose this or find themselves in a closer than expected game. But UTEP football has had it's share of embarrassment!
 
survive&advance said:
Laying it with UTEP. If NMSU gets enough stops then so be it, but I don’t think they will
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Yeah I took it at 9.5 as it jumped a couple points before I grabbed it but don’t think it matters. Two teams going in opposite directions in my view as UTEP should win by 2 scores easy but totally get why people don’t trust them given how rare it is for them to be favored by this much.
 
carolinablue said:
Yeah I took it at 9.5 as it jumped a couple points before I grabbed it but don’t think it matters. Two teams going in opposite directions in my view as UTEP should win by 2 scores easy but totally get why people don’t trust them given how rare it is for them to be favored by this much.
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If it goes to 10 I'll take notice but 7.5-9.5 is such a nominal number gap for me, I just don't see the reason to jump on it right now

That said UTEP prolly wins by 21+
 
KJ said:
If it goes to 10 I'll take notice but 7.5-9.5 is such a nominal number gap for me, I just don't see the reason to jump on it right now

That said UTEP prolly wins by 21+
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Started at 7 but wasn’t even on my radar screen at that time. Again, don’t think it matters as I have made a ton betting against the bottom feeders year in and year out, but usually it involves a fav that is much better than UTEP.
 
carolinablue said:
Yeah I took it at 9.5 as it jumped a couple points before I grabbed it but don’t think it matters. Two teams going in opposite directions in my view as UTEP should win by 2 scores easy but totally get why people don’t trust them given how rare it is for them to be favored by this much.
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In @RetroVK We Trust…..gonna tail on this play too!!!!!!
 
UTEP has winnable games 4 of their first 5 (NMSt, B-Cookman, NM and ODU) and 3 of those 4 are at home. Yet their win total is only 3. If they build on their improved play from last year, it is conceivable they could open 4-1.
 
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s--k said:
UTEP has winnable games 4 of their first 5 (NMSt, B-Cookman, NM and ODU) and 3 of those 4 are at home. Yet their win total is only 3. If they build on their improved play from last year, it is conceivable they could open 4-1.
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And lets be real, there will be plenty of UTEP fans there this week. I think it's no more than a 45 minute drive
 
Added UTEP 1H -5 even though juice is high at 130. Would be surprised if NMSU can put firing on all cylinders but something fluky could happen so only playing for half a unit. Full card now up in my thread.
 
CPA-hole said:
NM State did have two games in March after their 2020 season cancelled. They were blown out by Tarleton St and beat Dixie St. Only showing they have 3 starters back on offense from the 2019 season and 0 on defense. Utep is listed as having 11 starters on offense back and 8 on defense.

Pretty interesting game. Huge rivalry. NM st has actually won 3 in a row in the series. Line opened at 9.5 for Utep but is down to 7.5 at most places now.
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Main angle: Road favorites of 6 to 24 points are 83-41-2 ATS (an average of +4.67 points vs. the spread) against teams that have beaten them at least three straight times.

Subset 1: The main angle has had its best results in game 1, where it is 7-0-1 ATS (an average of +13.19 points vs the spread).

Subset 2: The numbers for the main angle are slightly better (21-7-1 ATS) if the teams did not play the previous season, as in this case where UTEP and NMSU last met in 2019.
 
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Dana Dimel is 10-26 ATS as a favorite, and 1-7 ATS as a favorite with revenge. Yuck.
 
M.W. said:
Dana Dimel is 10-26 ATS as a favorite, and 1-7 ATS as a favorite with revenge. Yuck.
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By far the largest mismatch this series has ever seen though. Not sure you can take much from historical numbers. 3 starters returning has to be a d1 record other than the rare UAB/Marshall type situations when they had to resurrect programs
 
I looked at the New Mexico State 2-Deep and their roster. There are a TON of JUCOs and a few rFr listed atop the depth chart.

Technically, among starts with New Mexico State, they only have 1 player who is a multi-year starter, OL Doxtater who has 25 starts 2017-2019. After that...a WR Downs has 10 career starts. OL Mursalate had 5 2019 starts and DL King and LB Brohard each have 1 2019 start. If you include other players who have starts at the FCS or FBS level, then we can include C Eli Johnson who started 12 games at Ole Miss in 2019. Again, there are A LOT of JUCO players here.
 
M.W. said:
I really like Hawaii and SUU.
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I'm actually reading some fan posts and camp/roster info about Hawaii now.

www.sportshawaii.com

University of Hawaii Football - Sports Hawaii

www.sportshawaii.com

I think they have some potential to make this a game. Hesitation is how their offense was MIA vs the better defenses they played last year (@ Wyoming, it was quite cold that night though), at San Diego State held to 10 pts, vs Boise was a lucky back door cover (game wasn't as close as the 32-40 score), vs San Jose (San Jose led 21-0 before UH scored 24 of the final 38 pts).

So I worry about the Hawaii O. I do like Chevan Cordeiro a lot and always have and like their skill players. OL, don't know. D? Think UH D is going to be quite a bit better. HC Todd Graham is D guy and UH has some good players back and added some quality transfers as well.
 
Didn't UH get stuck staying on the mainland quite a bit due to Covid or am I misremembering?
 
KJ said:
Didn't UH get stuck staying on the mainland quite a bit due to Covid or am I misremembering?
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They stayed after game 1 vs Fresno and went to Colorado to practice that week. But it snowed and was cold and they had to try to find an indoor space to practice. Ended up doing a lot of work in hotel banquet rooms. A lot of trouble for them entering that Wyoming game. Unfortunately the other games they struggled in can't be explained away so easily. I believe they have potential on that team. Somewhat of a big philosophical switch in systems last year, so learning curve should be over, time to step it up and play better.
 
Game will kickoff at 9:30 am Hawaii time, so kind of weird body clock thing there.
 
s--k said:
Game will kickoff at 9:30 am Hawaii time, so kind of weird body clock thing there.
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Be curious the travel schedule, usually in that case they'll come over a few days early. Obviously most MWC games are later so it's not as big a deal.

I'm more interested in them because of the UCLA look ahead spot than anything
 
Probably about time I look at this weekend at least, early plays were number plays w/o much research but this week I'm only on over in Champaign, I like UTEP in some shape and probably UH but not overly sure. These games are less than inspiring this weekend even though I know, it's CFB but I'd rather watch little league Sat than any of these lol
 
UCLA appears to have a really solid team this year, however, they have yet to ever put it together under Chip before. Did lose their 5 games by a combined 15 total points last year. A lot of people high on UCLA this year. The LSU game is hard to ignore. Hawaii provides some challenges, it's not like they are playing UNLV or something. Chip Kelly has never beat an out of conference foe at UCLA, loss includes a 2019 L vs San Diego State as 8 pt favorite and Fresno by 24 points in 2018!

Think UCLA has a new Center due to injury for whatever that is worth.

Will look and see when UH arrived on mainland for this game.
 
UH on plane.jpg

That was a couple hours ago, so they flying over tonight I guess.
 
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Average of reasonable P12 pundits have Bruins around 7th in the league. I disagree with that but I also think Utah is the best team in conference and they averaged about 4th-5th. For me Utah/USC/Oregon/Washington are the top 4, UCLA could be 5th or better than both North teams and never know when they play USC. ASU will be all over, Colorado is confusing the more I look, Tree will be Tree, UA will be one of the worst teams in the country.
 
KJ said:
Average of reasonable P12 pundits have Bruins around 7th in the league. I disagree with that but I also think Utah is the best team in conference and they averaged about 4th-5th. For me Utah/USC/Oregon/Washington are the top 4, UCLA could be 5th or better than both North teams and never know when they play USC. ASU will be all over, Colorado is confusing the more I look, Tree will be Tree, UA will be one of the worst teams in the country.
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UA, who you (and maybe me) are betting week 1!

I have a hard time separating ASU/USC/Utah among the top contenders in the South. UCLA is next, but I'd put Oregon and UW ahead of them. So I would put UCLA about 6th then I guess.
 
s--k said:
UA, who you (and maybe me) are betting week 1!

I have a hard time separating ASU/USC/Utah among the top contenders in the South. UCLA is next, but I'd put Oregon and UW ahead of them. So I would put UCLA about 6th then I guess.
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UA wager is simply a wager against BYU who I think will struggle at least the first half of the season
 
Little hint in how I like to do things, this is my wheelhouse. Trying to disprove every team in an article like this one is great. If I can't make the case as to why bad teams suck, they earn a free ticket on the fade train.
 
Chip Kelly is 1-6 ATS in season openers, with the only cover coming against Locksley's first UNM team. In each of the ATS losses, his team came up at least 7 points shy of the number.
 
With two different coaches, but some of the same players, Hawaii has won outright their last 4 season openers with 3 of those 4 being on the mainland. @ Fresno 34-19 +2.5, Arizona 45-38 +11, @ CSU 43-34 +16, @ UMass 38-35 +3
 
s--k said:
With two different coaches, but some of the same players, Hawaii has won outright their last 4 season openers with 3 of those 4 being on the mainland. @ Fresno 34-19 +2.5, Arizona 45-38 +11, @ CSU 43-34 +16, @ UMass 38-35 +3
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If my math is right, Hawaii has covered their last 11 season openers. 3 on the road, 6 at home, and a neutral site game vs Cal.
 
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2010 USC 36-49 (+20.5)
2011 Colorado 34-17 (-6.5)
2012 @USC 10-49 (+43.5)
2013 USC 13-30 (+24)
2014 Washington 16-17 (+18)
2015 Colorado 28-20 (+7)
2016 Cal 31-51 (+21.5)
2017 @Umass 38-35 (+3)
2018 @CSU 43-34 (+17)
2019 Arizona 45-38 (+10)
2020 @Fresno 34-19 (+3.5)
 
CPA-hole said:
If my math is right, Hawaii has covered their last 11 season openers. 3 on the road, 6 at home, and a neutral site game vs Cal.
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That tells me they an easy team for public to underestimate and for books to properly line, while also looking at the list, face some generally hyped teams from the preseason who end up not being as good as thought. Could fit UCLA. Hype with no history or much justification for it.
What did this number open at? I've heard it was a single digit line originally, or close to 10?
 
s--k said:
That tells me they an easy team for public to underestimate and for books to properly line, while also looking at the list, face some generally hyped teams from the preseason who end up not being as good as thought. Could fit UCLA. Hype with no history or much justification for it.
What did this number open at? I've heard it was a single digit line originally, or close to 10?
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Think it opened 9 but that's when no one had a clue why the QB wasn't practicing for UCLA
 
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