College Football Week 0 Best Bets: Georgia Tech's Program Keeps Improving
Florida State Seminoles vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Saturday, August 24, 2024 at noon ET at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland
Florida State's Best Matchup Advantage
When handicapping football games, you'll find that one team will have some matchup advantages while its opponent will also have some. The key is to figure out which matchup advantages will influence the ATS result.
Without a doubt, Florida State's best matchup on offense will come on the ground.
The Seminoles' strength on offense will be its ground game while Georgia Tech's defense will have to improve tremendously from ranking 130th against the run last year.
However, even if the Seminoles' running back and offensive line units and the Yellow Jackets' front seven were the same this year as last year, Florida State's ground game success still wouldn't be decisive.
Last year, the Yellow Jackets were able to concede a lot of rushing yards and still win both SU and ATS.
Two examples are when they, as the underdog, defeated Wake Forest 30-16 and when they covered the spread with a 31-22 victory over Syracuse.
Shifting Tides
But Florida State's ground game will also decline this year thanks to the departures of its top running back and meaningful offensive linemen and, as I will discuss later, thanks to its weakened pass attack.
Georgia Tech, on defense, also promises to improve with a new defensive coordinator.
This new defensive coordinator proved himself in one year at Duke last year, where he had Duke ranking 18th in scoring defense and top-50 in run defense.
The Yellow Jackets' run defense also improved the talent of its personnel through the transfer portal.
Missing Jordan Travis
But the main reason why the Seminoles' rush attack will be weaker this year and the main reason why their offense as a whole will be worse this year is the departure of star quarterback Jordan Travis.
Travis was a reliable weapon without whom Florida State's offense suddenly became impotent.
His backup, DJ Uiagalelei, has bounced around from Clemson to Oregon State and now to Florida State.
He is not much more than his strong arm.
Lacking touch on his throws, he struggles with accuracy, as evident in his low completion percentage.
He is not only unreliable per se, but Florida State's top two wide receivers departed in the offseason.
The Seminoles will have a new, weaker quarterback throwing to new wide receivers. It will take time for chemistry to form.
The Rise of Haynes King
Georgia Tech's quarterback, Haynes King, is an ascendant threat with his dual-threat prowess.
Since 2000, only six ACC players passed for 2,700 yards, rushed for 600 yards, thrown 25 touchdown passes, and ran for five touchdowns in one regular season.
He is a playmaker, with his arms and with his legs, who ably finds the end zone.
His success on the ground will come against a Florida State defense that often struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks last year and that lost two starting linebackers.
Beyond returner DJ Lundy, this unit will rely on linebackers from the transfer portal who failed to establish themselves at other programs.
The Seminoles' secondary also won't be what it was. While there is good talent at the top, the departure of three starters creates an issue of depth.
Georgia Tech, on the other hand, has with its group of returning wide receivers significant depth in the unit, giving it a kind of advantage.
Takeaway
Missing especially its quarterback and less especially its top wide receivers, Florida State is too handicapped offensively to cover the spread against a Georgia Tech team that features a potent offense spearheaded by a unique dual-threat talent and a deep group of wide receivers. This also isn't the dominant Florida State defense of last year.
Best Bet: Georgia Tech +11.5 at -110 with BetOnline
SMU Mustangs vs. Nevada Wolf Pack
Saturday, August 24, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Mackay Stadium in Reno
SMU's Well-Balanced Offense
SMU scored at least 38 points in six different games last year.
When they did so, the Mustangs could rely either on their running backs or on their pass attack.
This will be the case for SMU again this year.
They had three running backs, Jaylan Knighton, LJ Johnson Jr., and Camar Wheaton, combine for over 1,700 yards.
All three running backs are back.
Moreover, its top two quarterbacks – both efficient, mistake-averse guys capable of leading their team in their biggest games – and top six wide receivers are back.
Nevada's Poor Defense
SMU is a group that can amass well over 38 points against a poor defense.
Nevada has such a defense.
It ranked 122nd against the run last year, and yet run defense is its strength.
This group will be especially poor against the pass this year since its pass rush was already anemic before the departure of its top sack-getter and since its best two safeties also departed.
Tackling will be an even bigger issue this year thanks in part to the departure of these safeties.
Nevada's Awful Offense
SMU is favored by 27 points. The Mustangs will have to score fewer points to cover the spread if they can count on a low point total from Nevada.
This year's Nevada is generally a likely candidate to score few points.
The Wolfpack last year mustered 18.4 points per game, making them 119th in scoring offense.
They're going to be worse this year with a quarterback who threw more interceptions than touchdowns and an unproven wide receiver group that misses two starters from last year.
Nevada will have to pass to keep with SMU, yet it lacks efficient or effective weapons.
Takeaway
SMU proved last year to be a team that can score in the 50's. The Mustangs have a well-rounded offense that will beat up a porous run defense and an emaciated pass defense.
Especially as it faces a defense with a pulse – and SMU has more than a pulse on defense after ranking 14th last year and adding impactful depth over the offseason – Nevada's offense lacks the weapons to remain at all competitive.
Best Bet: SMU -27 at -115 with BetOnline
Florida State Seminoles vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Saturday, August 24, 2024 at noon ET at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland
Florida State's Best Matchup Advantage
When handicapping football games, you'll find that one team will have some matchup advantages while its opponent will also have some. The key is to figure out which matchup advantages will influence the ATS result.
Without a doubt, Florida State's best matchup on offense will come on the ground.
The Seminoles' strength on offense will be its ground game while Georgia Tech's defense will have to improve tremendously from ranking 130th against the run last year.
However, even if the Seminoles' running back and offensive line units and the Yellow Jackets' front seven were the same this year as last year, Florida State's ground game success still wouldn't be decisive.
Last year, the Yellow Jackets were able to concede a lot of rushing yards and still win both SU and ATS.
Two examples are when they, as the underdog, defeated Wake Forest 30-16 and when they covered the spread with a 31-22 victory over Syracuse.
Shifting Tides
But Florida State's ground game will also decline this year thanks to the departures of its top running back and meaningful offensive linemen and, as I will discuss later, thanks to its weakened pass attack.
Georgia Tech, on defense, also promises to improve with a new defensive coordinator.
This new defensive coordinator proved himself in one year at Duke last year, where he had Duke ranking 18th in scoring defense and top-50 in run defense.
The Yellow Jackets' run defense also improved the talent of its personnel through the transfer portal.
Missing Jordan Travis
But the main reason why the Seminoles' rush attack will be weaker this year and the main reason why their offense as a whole will be worse this year is the departure of star quarterback Jordan Travis.
Travis was a reliable weapon without whom Florida State's offense suddenly became impotent.
His backup, DJ Uiagalelei, has bounced around from Clemson to Oregon State and now to Florida State.
He is not much more than his strong arm.
Lacking touch on his throws, he struggles with accuracy, as evident in his low completion percentage.
He is not only unreliable per se, but Florida State's top two wide receivers departed in the offseason.
The Seminoles will have a new, weaker quarterback throwing to new wide receivers. It will take time for chemistry to form.
The Rise of Haynes King
Georgia Tech's quarterback, Haynes King, is an ascendant threat with his dual-threat prowess.
Since 2000, only six ACC players passed for 2,700 yards, rushed for 600 yards, thrown 25 touchdown passes, and ran for five touchdowns in one regular season.
He is a playmaker, with his arms and with his legs, who ably finds the end zone.
His success on the ground will come against a Florida State defense that often struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks last year and that lost two starting linebackers.
Beyond returner DJ Lundy, this unit will rely on linebackers from the transfer portal who failed to establish themselves at other programs.
The Seminoles' secondary also won't be what it was. While there is good talent at the top, the departure of three starters creates an issue of depth.
Georgia Tech, on the other hand, has with its group of returning wide receivers significant depth in the unit, giving it a kind of advantage.
Takeaway
Missing especially its quarterback and less especially its top wide receivers, Florida State is too handicapped offensively to cover the spread against a Georgia Tech team that features a potent offense spearheaded by a unique dual-threat talent and a deep group of wide receivers. This also isn't the dominant Florida State defense of last year.
Best Bet: Georgia Tech +11.5 at -110 with BetOnline
SMU Mustangs vs. Nevada Wolf Pack
Saturday, August 24, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Mackay Stadium in Reno
SMU's Well-Balanced Offense
SMU scored at least 38 points in six different games last year.
When they did so, the Mustangs could rely either on their running backs or on their pass attack.
This will be the case for SMU again this year.
They had three running backs, Jaylan Knighton, LJ Johnson Jr., and Camar Wheaton, combine for over 1,700 yards.
All three running backs are back.
Moreover, its top two quarterbacks – both efficient, mistake-averse guys capable of leading their team in their biggest games – and top six wide receivers are back.
Nevada's Poor Defense
SMU is a group that can amass well over 38 points against a poor defense.
Nevada has such a defense.
It ranked 122nd against the run last year, and yet run defense is its strength.
This group will be especially poor against the pass this year since its pass rush was already anemic before the departure of its top sack-getter and since its best two safeties also departed.
Tackling will be an even bigger issue this year thanks in part to the departure of these safeties.
Nevada's Awful Offense
SMU is favored by 27 points. The Mustangs will have to score fewer points to cover the spread if they can count on a low point total from Nevada.
This year's Nevada is generally a likely candidate to score few points.
The Wolfpack last year mustered 18.4 points per game, making them 119th in scoring offense.
They're going to be worse this year with a quarterback who threw more interceptions than touchdowns and an unproven wide receiver group that misses two starters from last year.
Nevada will have to pass to keep with SMU, yet it lacks efficient or effective weapons.
Takeaway
SMU proved last year to be a team that can score in the 50's. The Mustangs have a well-rounded offense that will beat up a porous run defense and an emaciated pass defense.
Especially as it faces a defense with a pulse – and SMU has more than a pulse on defense after ranking 14th last year and adding impactful depth over the offseason – Nevada's offense lacks the weapons to remain at all competitive.
Best Bet: SMU -27 at -115 with BetOnline
