week 0/1

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
Not much today boys ....line is what the line 'should be', IMO.

This year changing things up a bit .... this will be painful, but looking to bet TEAM, more than the NUMBER. I don't make my own PR anymore, and don't have access to early numbers from Circa, DK, or FD. So too many times I've 'lost' my top plays - refusing to play what I perceive as a 'bad number' - later noting these same teams covered anyway. Will post most plays later in the week (hopefully).


one unit

UTAH -5 W
WISKY -17' L
Buffalo +18' W
NW +7 L
Miss St -12' W

smaller

KANSAS -13' W
UTEP +6' L
ODU +24' W
Rutgers -12' live L
TCU -3 W
------------
EMU +14 L
Texas +0.5 1H L
GTech -2' W
SJSU -2' live L


leans


Iowa St W
USF >6' - lean only probably - might play live/2H W
Baylor >3/ML - lean only or live/2H L
GT ML - live/2H only W
Toledo - need 8' or more L
GASO? - lean only L
USC - live/2H (off slow start?) W
LSU ?? - great game to just watch W
Va Tech - might play if line shoots up late L
TCU <3 - will play at 2' or less
 
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SAT 8/23


305 IOWA STATE
12:00 p.m. Dublin
306 KANSAS STATE -2'
* Matt Campbell has KSU figured out - winning 5/7, covering 5 straight by an average of 12.5pts/g. They usually out-rush KSU (973-693 L5) and make fewer mistakes. He's covered 23/37 as B12 dog. BUT, KSt is top 20 in RP (returning production), and may have the difference maker in QB AJ.
$ lean only ISU at 3 - might play small at 4, or live/2H - lean over.


307 SAM HOUSTON ST
7:00 p.m.
308 WESTERN KENTUCKY -12'
* SH totally starting over - WKU loses a ton, but HC reloads every year, and they bring in an OC/QB team (could light ip up here). WKU plays well usually in this early spot.
$ NO PLAY WHATSOEVER ON SH - so lean WKU, and over - maybe great live/2H play on the OVER here

309 FRESNO STATE
6:30 p.m.
310 KANSAS -16'
* KU loses a ton, but brings back a 10 yr QB/ fine RB/OL, and great HC off a disappointing year - breaking in their new stadium. Off a terrible start LY, this game is huge for them (Only Wagner on deck). For Fresno, totally starting over (new HC)- who TF knows? - might be a 'play on' team later...
$ will play Kansas at <14 - looking for 12/13 (Fresno seems to be a popular play)

311 STANFORD -1'
7:30 p.m.
312 HAWAII
* TREE is a team to fade (probably) - with a LAME DUCK HC, TO START THE YEAR FFS? Hawaii is tough in this spot typically (15/23 covers as home dog),but TREE is a total unknown. IMO they might be terrible, they could dominate here - who TF knows?
$ if you could catch Hawaii early as a dog great - but now favored by 2/3? I would let it go, or play live/2H with a better line
 
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I'll go ahead and play smaller

KANSAS -13'

* juiced at LowVig

Usually I hate extra juice - but missing early numbers, plus LV offers -105/6 juice - Heritage -108 - so it 'balances out' kinda sorta. So I don't worry about a bit extra at times .... did it too often LY for sure tho.
 
Ahhh The greatest college capper ever in this galaxy


Much Respect long time BROTHER


May this be your most profitable season to date 🤑🤑💸💵💰💰💰💰
 
added

Utah - 5 / juiced at BM
>> a fade of UCLA for sure - Utes off 5-7, and (probably?) Kyle W's LY ? - only FCS on deck, Bruins should get their ass kicked

Wisky -17' / at BO/LV
>> HUGE game for HC Fickell - not so much for Miami, O - as HC Martin typically stresses MAC games, not so much these tough NC games (better lately tho) - 0-17 SU 1st road game - 0-8 ATS run (road opener) - Wisky #27 RP / Miami #124 - Miami returns ZERO offensive starters, and has the nation's least experienced OL (3 starts). Wisky has the nation's toughest schedule, and cannot afford a weak effort here (only MTenn St on deck)

Buffalo +18' / at BO/LV
>> PJ does well in this type spot - but usually these games are ugly, and low scoring - love Buffalo/HC Lembo - they should play Minny tough here

UTEP +6' / at BM
>> Miners a team under the radar for sure - line went UP with the announcement that talented QB Nelson would start? IF he can't play here either, LY starter should be fine - Aggies lose everybody, and are starting over AGAIN with Bronco (look to play on later in the year). Miners have recruited great under fine new HC.

EMU +14 - an auto play for me as road dog - extra small play here, talented / fast teams are too much for them sometimes .....Texas St (UTSA next) can't be trusted here for sure

note: for RP (returning production) - I just split the difference between Bill C and Steele......
 
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Interesting to see someone else that like WISC. I like their TT O28.5 a bit more than the side, should get there in game 1 at home. New O coordinator that will bring the Badgers back to their identity. Wisc averaged 37.7 pts against Mac foes historically.
 
added smaller

MISS ST -12

>>> juiced slightly at BM - I'll add to the play if it drops late in the week

TOO much early love for S Miss IMO. SO ......poof! - you're gonna be MARSHALL week 1? They've won 4 games in 2 years - a losing culture is firmly entrenched......

MAYBE, but I doubt it - MSU faces a tough schedule (#10) / #20 RP - played well on the road LY, with a healthy QB should be much improved. They can't afford to struggle with sorry S Miss here, with Arizona St on deck. Look to play S Miss later in the year.....
 
small play

TEXAS + 0.5 1H

>> -103 at BO/LV (-112 at Heritage)

Horns under Sark start fast on the road - in these tough games. He's great at game planning / scripting early plays. His D is typically aggressive early as well. Buckeyes often start slow, finish strong. Will Arch be great week 1? Who TF knows.... what we do know is that OSU will miss DC Knowles.
 
GL BA!
First person I've seen play the Wisc game. Redhawks lost last 17 road openers and 0-8 ats last 8 road openers. Yeah, Martin doesn't go all out for the big paycheck games. Nice play!

On Rutgers myself, Ohio has West Virginia and the Ohio State on deck!! As long as Scarlet Knights don't let these guys think they can win early in this game (like UNLV did) they should just play to stay healthy.
Now Buffalo I'm not so sure. Minny has most of a very good defense back and they are liking their 6' 5" redshirt frh qb Lindsey.

Considering a small Big10 vs fade MAC 2x round-robin week 1.
 
bookieassassin said:
small play

TEXAS + 0.5 1H

>> -103 at BO/LV (-112 at Heritage)

Horns under Sark start fast on the road - in these tough games. He's great at game planning / scripting early plays. His D is typically aggressive early as well. Buckeyes often start slow, finish strong. Will Arch be great week 1? Who TF knows.... what we do know is that OSU will miss DC Knowles.
Click to expand...
Nice angle here
 
bookieassassin said:
added

Utah - 5 / juiced at BM
>> a fade of UCLA for sure - Utes off 5-7, and (probably?) Kyle W's LY ? - only FCS on deck, Bruins should get their ass kicked

Wisky -17' / at BO/LV
>> HUGE game for HC Fickell - not so much for Miami, O - as HC Martin typically stresses MAC games, not so much these tough NC games (better lately tho) - 0-17 SU 1st road game - 0-8 ATS run (road opener) - Wisky #27 RP / Miami #124 - Miami returns ZERO offensive starters, and has the nation's least experienced OL (3 starts). Wisky has the nation's toughest schedule, and cannot afford a weak effort here (only MTenn St on deck)

Buffalo +18' / at BO/LV
>> PJ does well in this type spot - but usually these games are ugly, and low scoring - love Buffalo/HC Lembo - they should play Minny tough here

UTEP +6' / at BM
>> Miners a team under the radar for sure - line went UP with the announcement that talented QB Nelson would start? IF he can't play here either, LY starter should be fine - Aggies lose everybody, and are starting over AGAIN with Bronco (look to play on later in the year). Miners have recruited great under fine new HC.

EMU +14 - an auto play for me as road dog - extra small play here, talented / fast teams are too much for them sometimes .....Texas St (UTSA next) can't be trusted here for sure

note: for RP (returning production) - I just split the difference between Bill C and Steele......
Click to expand...
“EMU +14 - an auto play for me as road dog - extra small play here,” BA were you an OC or Coach for EMU back in the day?? I think you’re like 7-0 ATS backing the Eagles of EMU… Inside trader stuff .
 
Also put me in the category of betting teams first and numbers second. Of course the number is vital, but it is a byproduct of the teams and matchup.

Teams or numbers, chicken or egg, probably splitting hairs, but my perspective and approach is the same. Team is my deal breaker.
 
* added at BM/juiced

NW +7

* Bumped up Miss St at 12'

>> Actually - waiting for NW to go up a bit (get a better deal) - I think it continues to go up - should go back and forth between 6'/7
 
added smaller at LV/BO...

ODU +24'

Tough as hell as a road dog, especially getting 20+ - I think they move the ball some here....

Being a regression based handicapper, hard to believe Indy just picks up where they left off. They damn sure might, so small play only.
 
bookieassassin said:
added

Utah - 5 / juiced at BM
>> a fade of UCLA for sure - Utes off 5-7, and (probably?) Kyle W's LY ? - only FCS on deck, Bruins should get their ass kicked

Wisky -17' / at BO/LV
>> HUGE game for HC Fickell - not so much for Miami, O - as HC Martin typically stresses MAC games, not so much these tough NC games (better lately tho) - 0-17 SU 1st road game - 0-8 ATS run (road opener) - Wisky #27 RP / Miami #124 - Miami returns ZERO offensive starters, and has the nation's least experienced OL (3 starts). Wisky has the nation's toughest schedule, and cannot afford a weak effort here (only MTenn St on deck)

Buffalo +18' / at BO/LV
>> PJ does well in this type spot - but usually these games are ugly, and low scoring - love Buffalo/HC Lembo - they should play Minny tough here

UTEP +6' / at BM
>> Miners a team under the radar for sure - line went UP with the announcement that talented QB Nelson would start? IF he can't play here either, LY starter should be fine - Aggies lose everybody, and are starting over AGAIN with Bronco (look to play on later in the year). Miners have recruited great under fine new HC.

EMU +14 - an auto play for me as road dog - extra small play here, talented / fast teams are too much for them sometimes .....Texas St (UTSA next) can't be trusted here for sure

note: for RP (returning production) - I just split the difference between Bill C and Steele......
Click to expand...
Creighton a wizard as a road dog. I agree though about the speed. Considering this one myself. Not sure what to make of the presumed QB starter at Texas State who I think is Brad Jackson. I know they have a couple of "not terrible" options in Nate Yarnell from Pitt and McCoy from Oregon State, so he was good enough to beat them out.
 
THURS 8/28


141 EAST CAROLINA
7:00 p.m.
142 NC STATE -16
* NCST > Cavs ...ECU > FCS
>> Doeren stinks in this spot -1-9 ats vs non conference (NC)- ECU beat 'em in bowl LY 26-21 (+7)/ game concluded with a big brawl - ECU lost too much on D to probably compete here
$ strong lean NCST - but I don't trust them


143 BOISE STATE -7
5:30 p.m.
144 USF
* B > EWU > bye ...USF > @Fla > @ MIA !!
>> both top 20 RP, including QB's - neither play well in this early spot (USF Bama only wtf)- USF with big QB edge IMO
$ wanna fade Boise in the heat - but I don't trust USF to play a buttoned up game here - might play at >7

145 JACKSONVILLE ST
7:00 p.m.
146 UCF -16
>> both starting over, STAY AWAY - JSU might be TERRIBLE, so maybe UCF live/2H - but UCF has 67 new players

147 WYOMING -6
7:00 p.m.
148 AKRON
>> If you play this game - seek counseling immediately...
$ Zip QB Finley could keep them in this one - lean Akron - they MIGHT play well early > FADE LATE (probation)

149 OHIO
6:00 p.m.
150 RUTGERS -14
*O > WVirg > @Ohio St ... R > Mia,O
>> fade Ohio, off long awaited MAC title + lose HC - SCHIANO LOVES TO COVER THESE NC GAMES (12/15)
$ probably solid play up to 14, smaller above - up to 17

151 NEBRASKA -6
9:00 p.m. Kansas City, MO
152 CINCINNATI
* N > Akron > FCS ... C > B Green > FCS
>> Rhule vs Satterfield? - big edge to Huskers, but Cinn is capable
$ lean only to Nebraska, I don't trust them yet - I would even consider Cinn at 6'/7

153 BUFFALO
8:00 p.m.
154 MINNESOTA -16'
* both with FCS on deck
>> PJ has covered only 2/8 openers and 4/10 vs MAC - loses great DC, DL and RB coaches - Buffalo a team on the rise under great HC Lembo, and should play Minny tough here, but QB is a ? - should be an UGLY, low scoring game
$ like Buffalo here - PJ has been looking to get out for a few years - a focused effort here would surprise me

155 MIAMI OH
9:00 p.m.
156 WISCONSIN -20'
* M > Rutgers ... W > MTSU > Bama
>> No show here? > Fickell should pack up and leave town -nice W is a must - Miami is starting over, HC plays for a MAC title, and doesn't care much about NC games
$ probably play Wisky up to 20 - this is a 'due theory' play somewhat - but I don't see Miami competing here
 
smaller

Rutgers -12' live


* dammit shoulda waited......


$$ Schiano doesn't let up 2H - since 2021, here are the 2H scores for this same spot - like how his D tightens up

35-7 Temple -15
16-7 (road vs BC +8')
28-0 Wagner -48
28-7 Akron -23
27-0 Howard -38
14-13 (Hokies / 1H 21-3)
23-7 Temple -8
7-7 (NW -6 / 1H 17-0)
 
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looking at week 2....

One thing to remember, is that coaches aren't all equal - preparing their team : off a LOSS, and off a WIN

>> great place to check (besides Steele) is at Team Rankings

College Football Team ATS Trends - All Games

Free college football team ats trends and splits in simple, easy to read tables. This page tracks all games results.
www.teamrankings.com www.teamrankings.com


Note Boise has covered 12/13 off a SU loss, and typically takes care of business vs FCS - 6-1 ats (EWU next)
* EWU has only covered 2/8 vs FBS
 
bookieassassin said:
looking at week 2....

One thing to remember, is that coaches aren't all equal - preparing their team : off a LOSS, and off a WIN

>> great place to check (besides Steele) is at Team Rankings

College Football Team ATS Trends - All Games

Free college football team ats trends and splits in simple, easy to read tables. This page tracks all games results.
www.teamrankings.com www.teamrankings.com


Note Boise has covered 12/13 off a SU loss, and typically takes care of business vs FCS - 6-1 ats (EWU next)
* EWU has only covered 2/8 vs FBS
Click to expand...
TeamRankings is the gold standard. The trends page is great and I love their matchup pages as well. Lines it up perfectly for me to give a good foundation for each game.
 
Not much at all for me - lean Baylor maybe - Buffs maybe live, if QB is playing well - Sparty live/2H - SJSU 2H

FRI 8/29


157 CENTRAL MICHIGAN
10:30 p.m.
158 SAN JOSE ST -14
* CM > @ Pitt > @ Mich !... SJSU @ TEXAS !!
>> CMU now Army style O / new HC - Sparty Jr in 2Y under Ken N - SJSU tough in this spot (15-4 SU at home / 5-1 su/ats game 1)
CMU should be a team to 'play on' LATER, not yet probably - SJSU O will be tough to stop - note 10:30p start (E) for CMU
$ CMU might be tough here - I'll look to play SJSU 2H - game will finish 1-2am for CMU

159 APPALACHIAN ST -7
7:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
160 CHARLOTTE
>> both starting over, CLT with the coaching edge probably, but has UNC on deck
$ STAY TF AWAY - lean under maybe

161 KENNESAW ST
7:00 p.m.
162 WAKE FOREST -17'
* WF > FCS
$ both starting OVER - STAY TF AWAY

163 AUBURN -2
8:00 p.m.
164 BAYLOR
* A > Ball St ... B > @ SMU
>> 40% rain - this one could go either way, you can't trust flaky Auburn laying points on the road - BUT an absolute MUST WIN for Hugh Freeze
$ maybe take Bears at 3 - for me I'll bet either team live/2H if down a few scores

165 UNLV -8'
9:30 p.m.
166 SAM HOUSTON ST
STAY TF AWAY - note SH plays their home games in HOUSTON at a soccer stadium (70 miles from campus)
$ gotta lean over - UNLV got SHREDDED by Idaho St and coulda lost easily

167 GEORGIA TECH -5
8:00 p.m.
168 COLORADO
* both FCS next
>> GT PLAYS TO THE LEVEL OF THEIR OPPONENT - they should kill the Buffs, but could lose too - Deion has been great in this spot, but loses too much to be trusted, his D might be tough (DC does fine job)
$ lean under for me only - might play 1H under

169 WESTERN MICHIGAN
7:00 p.m.
170 MICHIGAN ST -21
* MSU > B College
>> big game for Sparty - 2Y under fine HC - almost got beat LY by FAU in this spot - so can't afford to struggle here vs regional opponent
$ I'll look to play Sparty live/2H
 
gotta have (some) action.....

GT fast starters on the road - I can see Colorado starting slow here ....competing late

GT -2' 1H
 
added smaller

SJSU -2' live

* haven't watched enough for a larger play - just think Lil Sparty gets it together (3 TO 1H) / CMU fades late (for them 2am or so finish)
 
bookieassassin said:
Taking Michigan as a short dog next week at OU?
Click to expand...
I did take the +3 around two weeks ago.

I simply wanted the # and the juice was -105. .

I'm higher on Oklahoma than a lot of people this year fwiw.

That being said, this Mich defense will be very good. I expect that give Mateer some fits.

Offensively they'll shorten the game too -- more than likely.

Having a FG in hand seems like a good idea.
 
adding smaller/juiced - LV and BM offer best deals

TCU -3

*probably best to stay away from this one, as UNC is a TOTAL UNKNOWN ... they might be able to bother TCU QB Hoover, who has struggled vs pressure. I just like the Frogs this year in year 4 under Sonny - they play well on the road, offense should be tough to stop - D looks much improved ..... vs TOTALLY starting over UNC - who I look to fade early / play later in the year.
 
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