Hey all, as a reminder per my 1st CF post I don't cap. Tailing 4 guys with historical win rates around 60%. Read a ton of others. Not keeping an exact record or anything because I know most on here do their own capping anyway. Also, my standard play is 1u out of 150u bankroll (.66%).
So Week 0/1 I came away with +3 units. Felt very fortunate to do that as 2 of my guys went like 7-15 and got crushed. Lot of Unders (Okie St being one) and long shot dogs like ULM and Col St. that just got hammered. Mainly survived because I went 1/2 units on a lot of it and also did very well Live betting and hedging/getting off some of the losers. Won about 8u Live betting over the 4 day weekend. Some bad beats - Ball St. U68, Hawaii/WK O66.6, GA St +13, Tulsa -1 but also some went my way Cent Mich. +21.5, Hou/UTSA Over. I believe those balance out over the long haul.
Anyway, here is what I have for Week 2 so far and some thoughts/comments on all the reading:
GA St +8.5 mainly 7/7.5 now, saw 10 on Sunday briefly, don't see anyone on NC except our own CB
UNLV +13.5 about same now, saw 14 on Sunday briefly, don't see much about this game anywhere
Penn St -23.5 mainly 25 now, actually see quite a few folks on Ohio
A&M -16 mainly 19 now
Boise -15.5 mainly 16.5/17 now, do see some on New Mexico
Miss St. -8, mainly 10/11 now
Neb O60, mainly 62/63 now - one guy I respect but don't tail has his best bet as U63
Wisc O46 mainly 49 now
UCF -6 mainly 5.5/6 now, definitely some Ville love out there
AF O45.5 mainly 49 now - haven't seen anything but sure hope Col starts that backup QB. Read in s-k thread I think that North Iowa moved on AF, just didn't score
Bama -18 mainly 19.5/20 now - probably play 1H too - waiting on LakerFan74 play - ride the train until it loses. Probably smart to add GA to 1H play list
Ok St O54 mainly 58 now
UAB O50 mainly 50 now played after moved down from 53 open
North Ill +7 (2u) - bought 1/2 mainly 6/6.5 now - have seen some good cappers on Tulsa
Ark -2, WMich _.5 2T, 6PT teaser
CMich -4 - bought 1/2 mainly 5 now
Some really good line value on the Overs and most of the Sides. Hopefully it pays off.
Added 1u on Michigan to win B10 at +575 to the 1u I had at +820. Based on BAR analysis and WK 1 result against Col St. And man that schedule is a joke this year. Col St., Hawaii, and UCONN OOC and get Mich. St. and Penn St. at home. Only 4 on road vs Iowa, Indiana, Rutgers and OSU. And they have 2 QBs who are good in case one gets hurt. I believe they will be undefeated along with OSU when they play in last game. And don't think West winner will be a challenge. Will hedge out vs OSU (but not Championship) if correct.
See BAR has 3u on Michigan -51 vs. Hawaii this week. Don't know - all comes down to whether Jim takes it easy on them. Books getting smart too with these games 1H lines too - really make you pay. This one at 31.
I don't understand the Western Michigan -6.5 line vs. Ball St. Seems should be more like 14 to me but I always lose if I bet these types of games I feel are "sure things". I mean WM had ball in Q4 on road at MSU with chance to tie. And have a very good coach. While Ball was absolutely hapless vs. Tenn. and have a coach that kicks FG down 59-7.
Lot of movement on Wake. Should have joined CB on Sunday at -6.5/-7 but didn't. But think Vandy would be play at 14 though doesn't look like it's going to get there. I know Vandy beat hapless Hawaii and gave up a lot to Elon. But if Hartman does play, he's bound to be rusty. I assume he didn't practice with the Blood Clot issue. I can't imagine Vandy ever gets a HF advantage but if they were ever to have a big game and crowd I would think this weekend would be it at 2 0. But mainly Wake has never been able to stop anyone on D. Been thinking Wake TT Over 39/40ish may be way to go.
That's about it. Comments always welcome.
So Week 0/1 I came away with +3 units. Felt very fortunate to do that as 2 of my guys went like 7-15 and got crushed. Lot of Unders (Okie St being one) and long shot dogs like ULM and Col St. that just got hammered. Mainly survived because I went 1/2 units on a lot of it and also did very well Live betting and hedging/getting off some of the losers. Won about 8u Live betting over the 4 day weekend. Some bad beats - Ball St. U68, Hawaii/WK O66.6, GA St +13, Tulsa -1 but also some went my way Cent Mich. +21.5, Hou/UTSA Over. I believe those balance out over the long haul.
Anyway, here is what I have for Week 2 so far and some thoughts/comments on all the reading:
GA St +8.5 mainly 7/7.5 now, saw 10 on Sunday briefly, don't see anyone on NC except our own CB
UNLV +13.5 about same now, saw 14 on Sunday briefly, don't see much about this game anywhere
Penn St -23.5 mainly 25 now, actually see quite a few folks on Ohio
A&M -16 mainly 19 now
Boise -15.5 mainly 16.5/17 now, do see some on New Mexico
Miss St. -8, mainly 10/11 now
Neb O60, mainly 62/63 now - one guy I respect but don't tail has his best bet as U63
Wisc O46 mainly 49 now
UCF -6 mainly 5.5/6 now, definitely some Ville love out there
AF O45.5 mainly 49 now - haven't seen anything but sure hope Col starts that backup QB. Read in s-k thread I think that North Iowa moved on AF, just didn't score
Bama -18 mainly 19.5/20 now - probably play 1H too - waiting on LakerFan74 play - ride the train until it loses. Probably smart to add GA to 1H play list
Ok St O54 mainly 58 now
UAB O50 mainly 50 now played after moved down from 53 open
North Ill +7 (2u) - bought 1/2 mainly 6/6.5 now - have seen some good cappers on Tulsa
Ark -2, WMich _.5 2T, 6PT teaser
CMich -4 - bought 1/2 mainly 5 now
Some really good line value on the Overs and most of the Sides. Hopefully it pays off.
Added 1u on Michigan to win B10 at +575 to the 1u I had at +820. Based on BAR analysis and WK 1 result against Col St. And man that schedule is a joke this year. Col St., Hawaii, and UCONN OOC and get Mich. St. and Penn St. at home. Only 4 on road vs Iowa, Indiana, Rutgers and OSU. And they have 2 QBs who are good in case one gets hurt. I believe they will be undefeated along with OSU when they play in last game. And don't think West winner will be a challenge. Will hedge out vs OSU (but not Championship) if correct.
See BAR has 3u on Michigan -51 vs. Hawaii this week. Don't know - all comes down to whether Jim takes it easy on them. Books getting smart too with these games 1H lines too - really make you pay. This one at 31.
I don't understand the Western Michigan -6.5 line vs. Ball St. Seems should be more like 14 to me but I always lose if I bet these types of games I feel are "sure things". I mean WM had ball in Q4 on road at MSU with chance to tie. And have a very good coach. While Ball was absolutely hapless vs. Tenn. and have a coach that kicks FG down 59-7.
Lot of movement on Wake. Should have joined CB on Sunday at -6.5/-7 but didn't. But think Vandy would be play at 14 though doesn't look like it's going to get there. I know Vandy beat hapless Hawaii and gave up a lot to Elon. But if Hartman does play, he's bound to be rusty. I assume he didn't practice with the Blood Clot issue. I can't imagine Vandy ever gets a HF advantage but if they were ever to have a big game and crowd I would think this weekend would be it at 2 0. But mainly Wake has never been able to stop anyone on D. Been thinking Wake TT Over 39/40ish may be way to go.
That's about it. Comments always welcome.
