CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Ended up 2-4 and blowing 4.45 last night. Two steps forward, two steps back... (also, I went UNDER 9.5 -115 in Atlanta, but noticed this morning that I posted under 9 - anyone who was following that game knows that the line was 9.5 under 25 or so at the close; I basically bet the game UNDER as soon as UMP (Bell) info became available to me)...
Now 60-77 and up 2.53 on the season.
Focusing a bit more on the totals today as there are some clubbers out there.
I posted in Red/Shorty's UMP thread today about Bill Welke. He's normally an honorary UNDER member, but is off to a 6-0 OVER start this year. One look at his listed pitchers in all of those games shows you a regression is likely. The Reds have been UNDER machines in day games at home and aren't hitting for shit. Two guys with WHIPs of 1.19 go at it, and it looks like a prime spot for this one to be over in about two hours.
The play: UNDER 9 -105 for 2 units. I'd bet it all the way to under 9 -120.
Dodgers with a real nice rally last night and Kuo was untouchable. Penny has struggled against the Mets in his career but he did beat them twice last season and has beaten everyone except Peavy thus far. Maine started against LA twice last year, and lost both of those starts. His control has been an issue, and that 107-pitch outing last time isn't lost on me. This price seems awfully cheap considering the way the two teams are playing currently.
The play: LA -114 for 2 units.
Zito goes back to the bump today. I'm a bit scared by that, but hafta think he can't be any worse than he was pitching. Pittsburgh exploded last night against Sanchez and Co. and one thinks they won't hit like that again. Dumatrait is sort of a gas can, however. I'll tread lightly here, but still think each can hold his own here. As Timmy would say, "holding my nose" and betting UNDER in hopes that clubber Rob Drake and his 65.3 percent strikes can bail me out.
The play: UNDER 9.5 plus 105 for 1 unit.
No thoughts in Miami; prices look about right.
Sure wish Drake were in ATL and Knight were in Pittsburgh, but damn the luck. Wolf and Hudson have WHIPs of 1.13 and 1.01, respectively, and Diego can't hit for shit. But I can't ignore 59.7 percent strikes for Knight.
The play: Atl OVER 8.5 -110 for 1 unit.
Prices look right in Houston, Colorado and Arizona. I agree with my compadres that Fletcher, despite showing UNDER club tendencies over the last couple of years, cannot be counted on and is undependable at this point.
Cowboy Joe West is neutral despite his torrid OVER start. Check the day splits and the lineups of this getaway spot in Oakland before doing anything there; I'm passing.
CRAWFORD in Toronto. Yet to earn club status with his percentages but he's been an honorary member for years, and 100-71 O/U since 2002 is nothing to ignore. Marcum has been stellar so far, with a WHIP under 1. Let's root for Garza to mess it up.
The play: Toronto OVER 8.5 -110 for 1 unit.
Cliff Fucking Lee? Are you serious? Still no road runs allowed? Wang seems to win every time he takes the bump; his 1.13 WHIP is solid. Gorman is an UNDER ump and everything seems to be pointing to UNDER, but I have to think Lee regresses at some point. Maybe Shorty can talk me into a play on the total but as for now, I'll stick with Wang at a cheap price.
The play: Yankees -135 for 1 unit.
Any thoughts on McClelland? He's a neutral guy but I believe he's an honorary member in Sy's "OVER" club... I will pass, as Greinke has been outstanding and Weaver was pretty dominant last time out, as well.
ChiSox total looks a smidge high but I'm passing. I expect it to come down, though.
Leaning Tejas against Bedard, as Padilla has been serviceable. But Bedard was awesome last time out and it looks like his hip is healthy, so I'll pass. Wegner is listed as a neutral ump despite his start to this season. I'll watch one more game to determine whether he has earned clubber status or not.
GL!
:cheers:
Now 60-77 and up 2.53 on the season.
Focusing a bit more on the totals today as there are some clubbers out there.
I posted in Red/Shorty's UMP thread today about Bill Welke. He's normally an honorary UNDER member, but is off to a 6-0 OVER start this year. One look at his listed pitchers in all of those games shows you a regression is likely. The Reds have been UNDER machines in day games at home and aren't hitting for shit. Two guys with WHIPs of 1.19 go at it, and it looks like a prime spot for this one to be over in about two hours.
The play: UNDER 9 -105 for 2 units. I'd bet it all the way to under 9 -120.
Dodgers with a real nice rally last night and Kuo was untouchable. Penny has struggled against the Mets in his career but he did beat them twice last season and has beaten everyone except Peavy thus far. Maine started against LA twice last year, and lost both of those starts. His control has been an issue, and that 107-pitch outing last time isn't lost on me. This price seems awfully cheap considering the way the two teams are playing currently.
The play: LA -114 for 2 units.
Zito goes back to the bump today. I'm a bit scared by that, but hafta think he can't be any worse than he was pitching. Pittsburgh exploded last night against Sanchez and Co. and one thinks they won't hit like that again. Dumatrait is sort of a gas can, however. I'll tread lightly here, but still think each can hold his own here. As Timmy would say, "holding my nose" and betting UNDER in hopes that clubber Rob Drake and his 65.3 percent strikes can bail me out.
The play: UNDER 9.5 plus 105 for 1 unit.
No thoughts in Miami; prices look about right.
Sure wish Drake were in ATL and Knight were in Pittsburgh, but damn the luck. Wolf and Hudson have WHIPs of 1.13 and 1.01, respectively, and Diego can't hit for shit. But I can't ignore 59.7 percent strikes for Knight.
The play: Atl OVER 8.5 -110 for 1 unit.
Prices look right in Houston, Colorado and Arizona. I agree with my compadres that Fletcher, despite showing UNDER club tendencies over the last couple of years, cannot be counted on and is undependable at this point.
Cowboy Joe West is neutral despite his torrid OVER start. Check the day splits and the lineups of this getaway spot in Oakland before doing anything there; I'm passing.
CRAWFORD in Toronto. Yet to earn club status with his percentages but he's been an honorary member for years, and 100-71 O/U since 2002 is nothing to ignore. Marcum has been stellar so far, with a WHIP under 1. Let's root for Garza to mess it up.
The play: Toronto OVER 8.5 -110 for 1 unit.
Cliff Fucking Lee? Are you serious? Still no road runs allowed? Wang seems to win every time he takes the bump; his 1.13 WHIP is solid. Gorman is an UNDER ump and everything seems to be pointing to UNDER, but I have to think Lee regresses at some point. Maybe Shorty can talk me into a play on the total but as for now, I'll stick with Wang at a cheap price.
The play: Yankees -135 for 1 unit.
Any thoughts on McClelland? He's a neutral guy but I believe he's an honorary member in Sy's "OVER" club... I will pass, as Greinke has been outstanding and Weaver was pretty dominant last time out, as well.
ChiSox total looks a smidge high but I'm passing. I expect it to come down, though.
Leaning Tejas against Bedard, as Padilla has been serviceable. But Bedard was awesome last time out and it looks like his hip is healthy, so I'll pass. Wegner is listed as a neutral ump despite his start to this season. I'll watch one more game to determine whether he has earned clubber status or not.
GL!
:cheers:
