CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Pretty good day on the betting front for me ayer (not so much with the other sides of things), so call it 4-1 and +6.96 in baseball. Now 37-34-1 and +6.49 on the 2014 season.
Harang is getting cheap enough to consider if it goes much lower. I made him 45 and obviously the Fish were the right side at +150 ish where they opened. Now, not so much so.
Not sure what to make of the Wrigley-turning-100 angle. Miley was much better in LA last week, and Samardzija still doesn't get much run support. Pass.
Can't see how in any world that we live in where Matt Cain can be an underdog to Tyler Chatwood. I don't care if Cain's got a AA team behind him, that's an auto-bet because Chatwood is a high-A ball pitcher.
The play: Giants +107 medium 2u
Pittsburgh the favorite today in this pitching matchup? I'm not a big Simon fan, but he's literally done nothing wrong.
The play: Redlegs +111 (after commission) medium 2u.
Lean Mets but would like to see a bit better number on Niese before I jump in.
A few other leans here and there (Twins, Cleveland, Tejas, Beer) but no other plays for now.
In the Champions League today, let's look real closely at some of the things Bayern Munchen's players are saying. Paraphrased, Arjen Robben basically said "We're the underdog, woe is us, boo hoo". Looking at recent form, he would seem to be correct. Munchen has just one win in its last four Bundesliga outings since clinching the title last month, a 2-0 win against Wintract Braunschweig (likely to be relegated). Meanwhile, Real Madrid got their weekend match at Valladolid postponed to have extra time to prep for this match. They've outscored foes 13-0 in the last three La Liga games and beat Barca to win the Copa del Rey last week on a spectacular Gareth Bale goal in the 82nd minute or so.
A closer look reveals a few things. This will be the fourth straight semifinal that Real Madrid has played in. They were ousted by current Munchen coach Pep Guardiola and his Barcelona team in 2011, by Munchen here at the Bernabou on penalties in 2012, and by Borussia Dortmund last year, setting up an all-German final. There has certainly got to be some added pressure on the RM players who have been around for those losses to take the next step and make it to Lisbon for next month's final.
Also, this Munchen team has a coach (the aforementioned Guardiola) who makes 17 million Euros per season to coach a club team, so he certainly must be considered one of the top tacticians in the world. His roster features many of the best players from Germany, as many as 7 who figure to appear in Brazil's World Cup in June. He's got the best Dutch player (Robben), the best French player (Ribery) the best German goaltender (Neuer) and you're seeing a price today (in upwards of better than 2-to-1) on them that you won't see again for at least five years, with all the talent they're stockpiling. This play was an easy one, but the only struggle was how to go about putting it in. The safe play is to bet +1/4 goal or PICK because they might well be satisfied with a road draw, knowing any sort of victory in Munich will take them through. But it's real hard for me not to want to nibble on that +210 available on the exchange. I think Ronaldo will play, and that announcement could give us even better value on Munchen. No play for now, but there will be a Bayern Munich bet for me at some point before kickoff. I'll post it later...
GL today!
:shake:
Harang is getting cheap enough to consider if it goes much lower. I made him 45 and obviously the Fish were the right side at +150 ish where they opened. Now, not so much so.
Not sure what to make of the Wrigley-turning-100 angle. Miley was much better in LA last week, and Samardzija still doesn't get much run support. Pass.
Can't see how in any world that we live in where Matt Cain can be an underdog to Tyler Chatwood. I don't care if Cain's got a AA team behind him, that's an auto-bet because Chatwood is a high-A ball pitcher.
The play: Giants +107 medium 2u
Pittsburgh the favorite today in this pitching matchup? I'm not a big Simon fan, but he's literally done nothing wrong.
The play: Redlegs +111 (after commission) medium 2u.
Lean Mets but would like to see a bit better number on Niese before I jump in.
A few other leans here and there (Twins, Cleveland, Tejas, Beer) but no other plays for now.
In the Champions League today, let's look real closely at some of the things Bayern Munchen's players are saying. Paraphrased, Arjen Robben basically said "We're the underdog, woe is us, boo hoo". Looking at recent form, he would seem to be correct. Munchen has just one win in its last four Bundesliga outings since clinching the title last month, a 2-0 win against Wintract Braunschweig (likely to be relegated). Meanwhile, Real Madrid got their weekend match at Valladolid postponed to have extra time to prep for this match. They've outscored foes 13-0 in the last three La Liga games and beat Barca to win the Copa del Rey last week on a spectacular Gareth Bale goal in the 82nd minute or so.
A closer look reveals a few things. This will be the fourth straight semifinal that Real Madrid has played in. They were ousted by current Munchen coach Pep Guardiola and his Barcelona team in 2011, by Munchen here at the Bernabou on penalties in 2012, and by Borussia Dortmund last year, setting up an all-German final. There has certainly got to be some added pressure on the RM players who have been around for those losses to take the next step and make it to Lisbon for next month's final.
Also, this Munchen team has a coach (the aforementioned Guardiola) who makes 17 million Euros per season to coach a club team, so he certainly must be considered one of the top tacticians in the world. His roster features many of the best players from Germany, as many as 7 who figure to appear in Brazil's World Cup in June. He's got the best Dutch player (Robben), the best French player (Ribery) the best German goaltender (Neuer) and you're seeing a price today (in upwards of better than 2-to-1) on them that you won't see again for at least five years, with all the talent they're stockpiling. This play was an easy one, but the only struggle was how to go about putting it in. The safe play is to bet +1/4 goal or PICK because they might well be satisfied with a road draw, knowing any sort of victory in Munich will take them through. But it's real hard for me not to want to nibble on that +210 available on the exchange. I think Ronaldo will play, and that announcement could give us even better value on Munchen. No play for now, but there will be a Bayern Munich bet for me at some point before kickoff. I'll post it later...
GL today!
:shake:
