bloodhound
Sniffing out wins
I guess it could have been worse but I dug myself a hole last nite to dig out of hopefully tonite. I did won a couple of ingame unposted plays so it wasnt as bad as it looks but posted plays went 4-10-1 -2.92 with two outstanding plays left
Baseball 933 Chicago Cubs* -124 vs Pittsburgh Pirates x2
933 Chicago Cubs/Pittsburgh Pirates* Over 5 -152 x2
and a small parlay
933 Chicago Cubs* -125 vs Pittsburgh Pirates
933 Chicago Cubs/Pittsburgh Pirates* Over 5 -155
100 wins 195
Yes, I am a Pirates fan but I dont believe they can pull this off. In fact, they probably beat themselves with their poor fielding. They cant have any mistakes against Arrieta.While Pittsburgh is no stranger to the one-game playoff game, I think this is the yr for the Cubbies.
Arrieta is on the short list for the NL Cy Young because of his second half play in which he went 12-1 with a 0.75 ERA. He only had six hits and one walk over 22 scoreless innings in his final three starts while striking out 27. But the Arrieta allowed one hit in seven innings at home against the Pirates on Sept. 27, he gave up a run and failed to earn a win came at Pittsburgh on Sept. 16, when he was charged with two runs (one earned) on six hits in eight innings without factoring in the decision.
Cole won his final three starts as well, yielding a total of six runs and 17 hits in 21 innings with 19 strikeouts. He went seven innings at Chicago on Sept. 25 and allowed one run and four hits to pick up the win and improve to 7-1 with a 2.88 ERA in nine career starts against the Cubs. Cole struck out 32 in 25 2/3 innings against the Cubs this yr.
I played this Over more on the mistakes that I think the Pirates make more than anything else.But 10 times since the 2010 baseball postseason have there been totals of 6 runs or less, and 8 times out of the 10, the game has played Over the posted price. In fact the Over is a perfect 4-0 in the playoffs when the total sits at 5 1/2 runs. Remember last season when Kershaw and Wainwright went to the bump. That was a total of 5 1/2 runs, and the game ended with 19 total runs
What I am saying is there is just no room for error when a total is this low. One big inning, and then the starter gets lifted, and the flood gates usually get opened. The Cubs average 4.3 runs per game and give up 3.8. They average in the low to mid 4’s in almost every offensive scenario. What stands out is that their staff has allowed opponents 1.3 runs per game in the last 7. The Pirates offensive run scoring numbers are similar to the Cubs but a little lower overall. They have only averaged 2.9 runs per game in their last 7 games. They have also scored less than 4 runs in division play. These are not the type of pitchers where teams have sustained rallies. Arrieta has given up 10 honme runs in 229 innings and Cole has given up 11 home runs in 208 innings. McCutcheon is the only Pirate hitting over .300 against Arrieta. Cole has had less success against the Cubs, but only 2 batters with significant at bats are hitting over .300 against him. Each pitcher has given up one homer to the opponent.Using numbers other than pitching figures is not nearly as crucial in the post season as it is during the regular season. That’s because we are seeing pitching match-ups that are rare during the regular season. For example, no pitcher in the history of baseball allowed fewer earned runs in the second half of the season than Arrieta. But the total was never as low as 5.5. In two games the total was 6 and in just two others the total was 6.5. Three of the 4 went under. Cole had three games at 6.5 and one at 6. Those totaled 2 over and 2 under.
The Cubs were a slightly under team this season with 53.7 % of their games going under. The Pirates were an even 50- 50. When the total was 7 or under 57.5% of Cubs games went under but 54% of Pirate games went over. It pretty much went the same throughout the list of possibilities. The Cubs normally trended to the under and the Bucs trended toward the over.
Both bullpens are great. The Cubs pen is outstanding at 3.27 on the road, but the Bucs at 2.39 at home is fantastic. There’s no tomorrow for the loser so nobody will be held out.
A few trends for those that like it
Cubs are 4-0 in Arrieta's last four road starts versus the Pirates.
Under is 5-0-1 in Arrieta's last six starts versus the Pirates.
Pirates are 8-1 in Cole's last nine starts versus the Cubs.
Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings
Chicago 40-17 SU as a favorite of -125 to -175
Pittsburgh 34-42 SU against division opponents
Cubs won last eight regular season games, allowing nine runs (under 7-2-1 last ten)
Cubs won four of last six games with Pittsburgh (under 5-1)- they're in playoffs for first time since '08.
Pirates are hosting Wild Card for third year in row and are 6-4 in last ten games (under 7-3).
Cubs on the road when the total is 7 or less their record is 23 Wins and 7 Losses for the this season (+16.8 units)
Weather looks OK
<tbody>
[TD="bgcolor: #E0E0E0, colspan: 12, align: left"] Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates – 8:08 EDT - PNC Park Air Density Index: 66 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f0f0f0, align: center"]Time:[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f0f0f0, align: center"]5 pm[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f0f0f0, align: center"]6 pm[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f0f0f0, align: center"]7 pm[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f0f0f0, align: center"]8 pm[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f0f0f0, align: center"]9 pm[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f0f0f0, align: center"]10 pm[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f0f0f0, align: center"]11 pm[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f0f0f0, align: center"]12 am[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f0f0f0, align: center"]1 am[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Temp:[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]71°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]70°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]67°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]63°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]60°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]58°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]57°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]56°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]54°[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Humidity:[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]55%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]58%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]66%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]73%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]75%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]76%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]79%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]82%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]85%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Feels like:[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]77°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]70°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]67°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]63°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]60°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]58°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]57°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]56°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]54°[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Condition:[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]Mostly Cloudy[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]Mostly Cloudy[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]Mostly Cloudy[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]Partly Cloudy[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]Partly Cloudy[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]Clear[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]Clear[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]Clear[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]Clear[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Precip%:[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]0%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]0%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]3%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]0%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]1%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]1%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]3%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]3%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]3%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Wind:[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]NW 7 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]NW 6 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]NW 5 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]NW 4 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]NW 4 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]NNW 4 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]NNW 3 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]NNW 3 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]N 3 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #0000ff, colspan: 12"][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 12, align: right"][SIZE=-1]Weather forecast data on this page was updated on 10/7/2015 at 13:42 EDT.[/SIZE][/TD]
</tbody>
a few props later
GLTA
Baseball 933 Chicago Cubs* -124 vs Pittsburgh Pirates x2
933 Chicago Cubs/Pittsburgh Pirates* Over 5 -152 x2
and a small parlay
933 Chicago Cubs* -125 vs Pittsburgh Pirates
933 Chicago Cubs/Pittsburgh Pirates* Over 5 -155
100 wins 195
Yes, I am a Pirates fan but I dont believe they can pull this off. In fact, they probably beat themselves with their poor fielding. They cant have any mistakes against Arrieta.While Pittsburgh is no stranger to the one-game playoff game, I think this is the yr for the Cubbies.
Arrieta is on the short list for the NL Cy Young because of his second half play in which he went 12-1 with a 0.75 ERA. He only had six hits and one walk over 22 scoreless innings in his final three starts while striking out 27. But the Arrieta allowed one hit in seven innings at home against the Pirates on Sept. 27, he gave up a run and failed to earn a win came at Pittsburgh on Sept. 16, when he was charged with two runs (one earned) on six hits in eight innings without factoring in the decision.
Cole won his final three starts as well, yielding a total of six runs and 17 hits in 21 innings with 19 strikeouts. He went seven innings at Chicago on Sept. 25 and allowed one run and four hits to pick up the win and improve to 7-1 with a 2.88 ERA in nine career starts against the Cubs. Cole struck out 32 in 25 2/3 innings against the Cubs this yr.
I played this Over more on the mistakes that I think the Pirates make more than anything else.But 10 times since the 2010 baseball postseason have there been totals of 6 runs or less, and 8 times out of the 10, the game has played Over the posted price. In fact the Over is a perfect 4-0 in the playoffs when the total sits at 5 1/2 runs. Remember last season when Kershaw and Wainwright went to the bump. That was a total of 5 1/2 runs, and the game ended with 19 total runs
What I am saying is there is just no room for error when a total is this low. One big inning, and then the starter gets lifted, and the flood gates usually get opened. The Cubs average 4.3 runs per game and give up 3.8. They average in the low to mid 4’s in almost every offensive scenario. What stands out is that their staff has allowed opponents 1.3 runs per game in the last 7. The Pirates offensive run scoring numbers are similar to the Cubs but a little lower overall. They have only averaged 2.9 runs per game in their last 7 games. They have also scored less than 4 runs in division play. These are not the type of pitchers where teams have sustained rallies. Arrieta has given up 10 honme runs in 229 innings and Cole has given up 11 home runs in 208 innings. McCutcheon is the only Pirate hitting over .300 against Arrieta. Cole has had less success against the Cubs, but only 2 batters with significant at bats are hitting over .300 against him. Each pitcher has given up one homer to the opponent.Using numbers other than pitching figures is not nearly as crucial in the post season as it is during the regular season. That’s because we are seeing pitching match-ups that are rare during the regular season. For example, no pitcher in the history of baseball allowed fewer earned runs in the second half of the season than Arrieta. But the total was never as low as 5.5. In two games the total was 6 and in just two others the total was 6.5. Three of the 4 went under. Cole had three games at 6.5 and one at 6. Those totaled 2 over and 2 under. The Cubs were a slightly under team this season with 53.7 % of their games going under. The Pirates were an even 50- 50. When the total was 7 or under 57.5% of Cubs games went under but 54% of Pirate games went over. It pretty much went the same throughout the list of possibilities. The Cubs normally trended to the under and the Bucs trended toward the over.
Both bullpens are great. The Cubs pen is outstanding at 3.27 on the road, but the Bucs at 2.39 at home is fantastic. There’s no tomorrow for the loser so nobody will be held out.
A few trends for those that like it
Cubs are 4-0 in Arrieta's last four road starts versus the Pirates.
Under is 5-0-1 in Arrieta's last six starts versus the Pirates.
Pirates are 8-1 in Cole's last nine starts versus the Cubs.
Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings
Chicago 40-17 SU as a favorite of -125 to -175
Pittsburgh 34-42 SU against division opponents
Cubs won last eight regular season games, allowing nine runs (under 7-2-1 last ten)
Cubs won four of last six games with Pittsburgh (under 5-1)- they're in playoffs for first time since '08.
Pirates are hosting Wild Card for third year in row and are 6-4 in last ten games (under 7-3).
Cubs on the road when the total is 7 or less their record is 23 Wins and 7 Losses for the this season (+16.8 units)
Weather looks OK
| Wind: NW 4 mph |
|
<tbody>
[TD="bgcolor: #E0E0E0, colspan: 12, align: left"] Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates – 8:08 EDT - PNC Park Air Density Index: 66 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f0f0f0, align: center"]Time:[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f0f0f0, align: center"]5 pm[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f0f0f0, align: center"]6 pm[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f0f0f0, align: center"]7 pm[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f0f0f0, align: center"]8 pm[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f0f0f0, align: center"]9 pm[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f0f0f0, align: center"]10 pm[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f0f0f0, align: center"]11 pm[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f0f0f0, align: center"]12 am[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f0f0f0, align: center"]1 am[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Temp:[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]71°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]70°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]67°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]63°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]60°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]58°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]57°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]56°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]54°[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Humidity:[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]55%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]58%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]66%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]73%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]75%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]76%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]79%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]82%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]85%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Feels like:[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]77°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]70°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]67°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]63°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]60°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]58°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]57°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]56°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]54°[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Condition:[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]Mostly Cloudy[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]Mostly Cloudy[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]Mostly Cloudy[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]Partly Cloudy[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]Partly Cloudy[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]Clear[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]Clear[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]Clear[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]Clear[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Precip%:[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]0%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]0%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]3%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]0%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]1%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]1%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]3%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]3%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]3%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Wind:[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]NW 7 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]NW 6 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]NW 5 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]NW 4 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]NW 4 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]NNW 4 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]NNW 3 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]NNW 3 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]N 3 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #0000ff, colspan: 12"][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 12, align: right"][SIZE=-1]Weather forecast data on this page was updated on 10/7/2015 at 13:42 EDT.[/SIZE][/TD]
</tbody>
a few props later
GLTA
