Best MLB Picks: Wednesday's Top Total Bets
Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays
Wednesday, July 29, 2020 at 6:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Worried About Max?
Washington’s ace suffered some rough patches during Spring Training. His season debut, on the surface, seemed to confirm any preexisting concerns.
But for starters, Spring Training is, well, Spring Training. As for his season debut, let’s take a closer look.
Against the Yankees, he surrendered four runs in 5.1 innings, amounting to a 6.75 ERA.
His most frequent pitch was, as usual, the fastball. Its location was a bit off — he left it more often in the most middle parts of the plate. The Yankees took advantage of this with a .333 BA against his fastball.
The Yankees deserve additional credit. While they failed to get a single hit with two strikes in the count, Yankee batters only allowed Scherzer to bring them to a two-strike count with 27 percent frequency.
Last year, Scherzer faced opposing batters with two strikes 34 percent of the time.
Yankee batters were able to avoid as many two-strike counts because they exhibited stronger plate discipline.
Partly due to their performance against Scherzer, they currently own the fourth-best plate discipline in the MLB based on low percentage of swings at pitches outside the strike zone.
Scherzer was also unfortunate as he allowed a higher rate of BABIP (batting average of balls in play) than usual.
His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) in the game was 3.60, which isn’t bad. His xFIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding and uses projected instead of actual home run rate) was 1.84, which is excellent.
So, Scherzer was, partly, not his best. The Yankees were also the Yankees. Still, individually, as the metrics attest, Scherzer’s performance was actually pretty good.
While his ERA currently looks ugly, it provides no justification for distrust in one of baseball’s best pitchers.
Scherzer vs Blue Jay Batters
Scherzer has promising experience against active Toronto batters.
Four different ones have faced Scherzer. They have accumulated 37 at-bats in total against him and have produced four hits, which amounts to a .108 BA and .243 slugging rate.
Randal Grichuk, who’s dealing with some minor back issues, is 0-9 with five strikeouts against Scherzer. Brandon Drury is 1-for-8 with three strikeouts.
Against these guys, I would like to see a bit more first-pitch variety from Scherzer, which he has displayed in years prior. I think this variety will help generate more two-strike counts, where he is evidently so lethal.
Unlike the Yankees, the Blue Jays exhibit atrocious plate discipline. They own the sixth-worst percentage of swings at pitches outside the strike zone.
Nate Pearson
Nate Pearson is a highly-touted Blue Jay prospect — Toronto's top one and MLB Pipeline’s 23rd-highest -- who is making his first professional start.
Pearson’s primary pitch is his fastball. Its velocity remains in triple digits even in the latter stages of a game.
Overall, Washington is an above-average fastball-hitting team. However, when you restrict the statistical search to consider only high-velocity fastballs, then a different picture emerges.
Right now, the Nats own a .091 BA in 22 at-bats against the high-velo (95+ mph) fastball.
I think Pearson will be a difficult surprise to National batters for two additional reasons: his slider is also high-velo and features challenging tilt. His change-up, likewise, is unique in the way that its bottom suddenly drops out.
Since Pearson simplified his delivery, he’s walked only 2.4 batters per nine innings last year. This is a crucial point. Every pitcher who makes it to the majors has good stuff. But Pearson is distinct because he also has reliable control.
The Verdict
Scherzer is who you expect him to be: a dominant ace who will exploit Toronto’s poor plate discipline in order to generate sundry two-strike counts.
The total is at 4.5 for the first-half, which is fairly high for a Scherzer-pitched game.
While Pearson is, officially, an unknown variable. Scouting reports paint an extremely promising picture that will find justification tonight.
The juice is currently high. I recommend waiting for a lower-juice book like 5Dimes to release its odds. But keep an eye on the odds because it would be nice if you place the wager before the total drops to four.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 4.5 at -125 with Bovada
Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers
Wednesday, July 29 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park in Detroit
Trend For Matt Boyd
Since Matt Boyd has pitched in the Motor City, he has excelled in home debuts.
In 2015, he debuted in Detroit by allowing one run in seven innings. In 2016, he threw 4.2 shutout innings. In 2017, he threw six shutout innings. In both 2018 and 2019, he allowed one run in six innings.
Comerica Park
Boyd was a good grab for the Tigers because he is very much a fly-ball pitcher, which makes him well-suited for Comerica Park. In his career, he is yielding a 34.5 percent ground ball rate, which is very low.
Mostly, Boyd relies on a fastball-slider combo. Last year and this year, both pitches made up over 80 percent of his arsenal.
Both percentage-and frequency-wise, his fastball does the most to explain his high fly ball-rate.
He likes to elevate his fastball and he gives it a good amount of spin, which gives it the appearance of rising action. Batters swing underneath his fastball, thus popping it up into the air.
Boyd vs Active Royal Batters
In this case, active Royal batters have numbers which are misleadingly high against Boyd. They are misleading because they reflect Boyd’s struggles in Kansas City and when he’s already faced the Royals multiple times in the season.
Boyd’s best games against the Royals have come in Detroit when both teams meet for the first time in the season.
In his first start against the Royals both last year and the year before, he combined to allow three runs in 13 innings.
Right now, Kansas City batters are slow to hit lefties. They are 0-for-7 against them thus far.
Danny Duffy vs Active Detroit Batters
Active Tiger batters have found very little power against Duffy, slugging .355 in 138 combined at-bats.
When Duffy has succeeded in years past against Detroit, he’s induced Tiger batters to swing at a very high percentage at pitches outside of the strike zone.
Duffy isn’t known for being a strikeout pitcher. But he earns his higher strikeout rates against Detroit lineups. So it’s good to know that, percentage-wise, the Tigers are still swinging at many would-be balls
What Duffy does is keep his pitches along the edges of the strike zone and exploit the batter’s uncertainty as to whether the pitch will land for a strike or a ball.
While the Tigers feature plenty of opposite-handed hitters, I also like that, this year, Duffy is trying to emphasize more of his curveball. Last year, right-handed opponents only slugged .323 against it and I expect more of the same.
The Verdict
With strong trends supporting Boyd and Duffy matching up well with Tiger batters, you should wager on a low-scoring first-five innings.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 5 Runs at -105 odds with Bovada
Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays
Wednesday, July 29, 2020 at 6:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Worried About Max?
Washington’s ace suffered some rough patches during Spring Training. His season debut, on the surface, seemed to confirm any preexisting concerns.
But for starters, Spring Training is, well, Spring Training. As for his season debut, let’s take a closer look.
Against the Yankees, he surrendered four runs in 5.1 innings, amounting to a 6.75 ERA.
His most frequent pitch was, as usual, the fastball. Its location was a bit off — he left it more often in the most middle parts of the plate. The Yankees took advantage of this with a .333 BA against his fastball.
The Yankees deserve additional credit. While they failed to get a single hit with two strikes in the count, Yankee batters only allowed Scherzer to bring them to a two-strike count with 27 percent frequency.
Last year, Scherzer faced opposing batters with two strikes 34 percent of the time.
Yankee batters were able to avoid as many two-strike counts because they exhibited stronger plate discipline.
Partly due to their performance against Scherzer, they currently own the fourth-best plate discipline in the MLB based on low percentage of swings at pitches outside the strike zone.
Scherzer was also unfortunate as he allowed a higher rate of BABIP (batting average of balls in play) than usual.
His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) in the game was 3.60, which isn’t bad. His xFIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding and uses projected instead of actual home run rate) was 1.84, which is excellent.
So, Scherzer was, partly, not his best. The Yankees were also the Yankees. Still, individually, as the metrics attest, Scherzer’s performance was actually pretty good.
While his ERA currently looks ugly, it provides no justification for distrust in one of baseball’s best pitchers.
Scherzer vs Blue Jay Batters
Scherzer has promising experience against active Toronto batters.
Four different ones have faced Scherzer. They have accumulated 37 at-bats in total against him and have produced four hits, which amounts to a .108 BA and .243 slugging rate.
Randal Grichuk, who’s dealing with some minor back issues, is 0-9 with five strikeouts against Scherzer. Brandon Drury is 1-for-8 with three strikeouts.
Against these guys, I would like to see a bit more first-pitch variety from Scherzer, which he has displayed in years prior. I think this variety will help generate more two-strike counts, where he is evidently so lethal.
Unlike the Yankees, the Blue Jays exhibit atrocious plate discipline. They own the sixth-worst percentage of swings at pitches outside the strike zone.
Nate Pearson
Nate Pearson is a highly-touted Blue Jay prospect — Toronto's top one and MLB Pipeline’s 23rd-highest -- who is making his first professional start.
Pearson’s primary pitch is his fastball. Its velocity remains in triple digits even in the latter stages of a game.
Overall, Washington is an above-average fastball-hitting team. However, when you restrict the statistical search to consider only high-velocity fastballs, then a different picture emerges.
Right now, the Nats own a .091 BA in 22 at-bats against the high-velo (95+ mph) fastball.
I think Pearson will be a difficult surprise to National batters for two additional reasons: his slider is also high-velo and features challenging tilt. His change-up, likewise, is unique in the way that its bottom suddenly drops out.
Since Pearson simplified his delivery, he’s walked only 2.4 batters per nine innings last year. This is a crucial point. Every pitcher who makes it to the majors has good stuff. But Pearson is distinct because he also has reliable control.
The Verdict
Scherzer is who you expect him to be: a dominant ace who will exploit Toronto’s poor plate discipline in order to generate sundry two-strike counts.
The total is at 4.5 for the first-half, which is fairly high for a Scherzer-pitched game.
While Pearson is, officially, an unknown variable. Scouting reports paint an extremely promising picture that will find justification tonight.
The juice is currently high. I recommend waiting for a lower-juice book like 5Dimes to release its odds. But keep an eye on the odds because it would be nice if you place the wager before the total drops to four.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 4.5 at -125 with Bovada
Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers
Wednesday, July 29 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park in Detroit
Trend For Matt Boyd
Since Matt Boyd has pitched in the Motor City, he has excelled in home debuts.
In 2015, he debuted in Detroit by allowing one run in seven innings. In 2016, he threw 4.2 shutout innings. In 2017, he threw six shutout innings. In both 2018 and 2019, he allowed one run in six innings.
Comerica Park
Boyd was a good grab for the Tigers because he is very much a fly-ball pitcher, which makes him well-suited for Comerica Park. In his career, he is yielding a 34.5 percent ground ball rate, which is very low.
Mostly, Boyd relies on a fastball-slider combo. Last year and this year, both pitches made up over 80 percent of his arsenal.
Both percentage-and frequency-wise, his fastball does the most to explain his high fly ball-rate.
He likes to elevate his fastball and he gives it a good amount of spin, which gives it the appearance of rising action. Batters swing underneath his fastball, thus popping it up into the air.
Boyd vs Active Royal Batters
In this case, active Royal batters have numbers which are misleadingly high against Boyd. They are misleading because they reflect Boyd’s struggles in Kansas City and when he’s already faced the Royals multiple times in the season.
Boyd’s best games against the Royals have come in Detroit when both teams meet for the first time in the season.
In his first start against the Royals both last year and the year before, he combined to allow three runs in 13 innings.
Right now, Kansas City batters are slow to hit lefties. They are 0-for-7 against them thus far.
Danny Duffy vs Active Detroit Batters
Active Tiger batters have found very little power against Duffy, slugging .355 in 138 combined at-bats.
When Duffy has succeeded in years past against Detroit, he’s induced Tiger batters to swing at a very high percentage at pitches outside of the strike zone.
Duffy isn’t known for being a strikeout pitcher. But he earns his higher strikeout rates against Detroit lineups. So it’s good to know that, percentage-wise, the Tigers are still swinging at many would-be balls
What Duffy does is keep his pitches along the edges of the strike zone and exploit the batter’s uncertainty as to whether the pitch will land for a strike or a ball.
While the Tigers feature plenty of opposite-handed hitters, I also like that, this year, Duffy is trying to emphasize more of his curveball. Last year, right-handed opponents only slugged .323 against it and I expect more of the same.
The Verdict
With strong trends supporting Boyd and Duffy matching up well with Tiger batters, you should wager on a low-scoring first-five innings.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 5 Runs at -105 odds with Bovada
