WEDNESDAY "Talk Me Off"

[AtlHawks]

Hope everybody had a wonderful Christmas...

Got one here that is an anti-sharp play...
or it could just be a public play...

DALLAS +2.5 @ Utah

Can the Christmas break really change things here?
Dallas has been rolling of late, while Utah looks lost and their 2 point loss to the Heat doesn't look so good after today.

Even if Memo is back tomorrow it shouldn't be enough.
Usually love the angle of an unpopular home-fav, I just don't think Utah can get it done. They are in a funk...

Rolling with the hotter team here, that is also an elite team.


Talk Me Off Dallas +2.5

 

[rod_steel]

Mavs are 1-7-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in SLC

 

[AtlHawks]

Would have to guess that they were favorites most of those games...
Still not a reflection on the current play of these teams.
Duly noted, still have not played this yet.

What else you guys got???

 

[Killa]

Utah's crowd is insane, coupled with the fact that Utah needs it much more. Gonna be tough for Dallas to stay mentally sharp for 48 minutes in this atmosphere with a team in desperate need of a big win. They might go down here and then spank Cleveland tomorrow. Whatever they do tonight, I'll go the other way tomorrow vs. Cleveland.

 

[The Farm]

Just hit it myself...

 

[SportsNut]

I am going to throw some stuff out there but I am NOT attempting to talk you out of anything. Just offering some of my logic. I have NOT capped any games or even given thought to any prospective plays. This is just to promote discussion.....

1. Whoever made the schedule sure fucked Utah. They have played 15 of the last 21 games away. So while they havent played well it's mainly due to the fact they are always traveling or at least to some degree. Plus the recent Okur and Harpring absences havent helped.

2. Dallas is ONLY 6-7 away compared to 9-2 for Utah at home. You say Dallas is playing well and I am not so sure. They beat a terrible LAC team by 13 laying 11.5 , the beat Pho by 3 laying 3 thanks mostly to a 17 pt 1st q lead , a slumping ORL squad by 3 laying 5.5 ( who Utah thumped in ORL) , a nice win in Hou as 3 pt dogs and beat NO by 9 laying 8.5. Seems to me there playing close to there spreads so oddsmakers have a decent handle on them at the moment.

3. We saw all the Home teams WIN yesterday is that something we should look for today? A bigger then usual home court advantage due to the Holidays??

4. Is the line really off ? I think in the NBA if you see a team as -3 at home you can expect when they switch home courts for the line to be be bewteen 5 and 6. Example : Dallas was -5.5 recently at home vs Utah so when they switch I would expect Utah to be -3. Another situation that I remember this happening was the Lakers hosting GSW laying -3 when they traveled to GSW the line was GSW -6. Now all I am pointing out is what to expect from the linesmakers. If you know what to expect then it doesnt look fishy , strange or odd.

5. Back to Utah's play at home. They have thrown some beatdowns there this season. Both SU losses were games the lines were INFLATED. The latest loss was vs Portland laying -14 cause everyone thought the world would end with Aldridge going down but it didnt. The earlier loss was hosting Hou -3.5 . Not sure that the line was bad but definetly a situation that was not very good. First everyone seemed to play Hou on opening nite and they got backdoored in LAL while alot people played Utah who blasted GSW. So already you have one team who basically hurt the betting public vs another team who cashed easily for the betting public. You already know people will be jumping on Utah here and so do do the oddsmakers ( think of it as a 10 pt swing in the line switching from @ LAL -6.5 to Utah +3.5 , was that justified?). Factor in Houstons struggles vs Utah and the fact they lost in the playoffs vs them.....which sets up nicely for a motivated Rocket squad to avenge there playoff ouster in the year before. For Utah the cruised in the opener and get a team they have beaten up probably a good chance at being complacent. Really what happened that nite was McGrady was magical dropping 47 and the 5pt 1st quarter lead for Utah quickly evaporated.....For questions about the recent loss in Miami that was a buzzer beater in a PKem game remember it was a B2B situation and Utah is now 2-7 SU in the backend games! If they had hit the buzzer beater would u view the game differently? Also in both SU losses the feeling was Utah was easy and thats not the case here

6. Last meeting Dallas won by 8. Both teams shot 60% from the floor. It's more impressive that Utah did this on the road though. The game was decided on the FT line really as Dall was 30 of 35 comapred 22 of 31. Utah at home can flip this stat. Also Josh Howard had 47. You would expect them to make sure Howard doesnt have 47 again even with Diggler being public enemia #1. Dampier also had 21 his next highest game is 9 ! Situational for Utah in this game it was a backend after fading vs SA WHILE Dallas ws off the embarrassing SU blowout home loss to Denver. Now that Gircek has been booted the Jazz have recived some nice play from Miles as well...

I guess while Utah has not played consistently or well for the most part I dont see an edge to taking Dallas here cause there play hasnt been much better. To play on Utah I would like Okur to be available. I think Utah will again be tough on the glass and in the paint vs Dallas. As I said this was used for promoting discussion....

 

[jimbof20]

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FondyESQ.

Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: New York
Posts: 6,589


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holy shit

 

[tuck321]

In general avoid taking teams on Wednesday that will play on ESPN Thursday. GL

 

[AtlHawks]

Tuck- yeah I didn't really take into account the LEBRON look-ahead.


Sportsnut- great info. get back to me if you do decide to cap this one.


Line moved back to +3 hmmmmmm...

 

[affinity]

The only thing holding me back (and hence not betting this game) is the fact that Utah has not done well at all this season as a short fave: 2-4 (-1) - (-3.5) range, whereas Dallas has performed well as a short dog 2-0 in the same range.

Until Utah can show me that it can perform well on the defensive front on a consistent basis, I just cannot back them. I have seen them blow games in 3rd - 4th quarter because they appear clueless on the defensive end. Take the game in Sacramento: I had backed Utah and they were doing respectably well in the first half and that was the game where Kevin Martin had to leave the game - so I was feeling fairly confident about my wager. But then in the second half, Utah looked like an inexperienced high school team: John Salmons kept driving into the paint and all Utah did was foul over and over again. They look so clueless when the other team is aggressive and if Terry/Harris/Howard want to, they could cause havoc all night. No doubt, DWill will likely have a good game (he scored in the 40's like Howard did in their last matchup), but besides Boozer, I don't know who else can be counted on to help on the offensive end. Memo will likely be back tonight, but judging from having him on my fantasy roster this season, I would be very shocked to see him play a major role in the offense and Dampier is no treat to defend.

With a gun to my head, I would take Dallas. I understand and respect the fact that some cappers here think that Dallas might be looking ahead to tomorrow night's game. But to me, if I were Dallas, I would be a bit more hyped about tonight's matchup: an opportunity to notch a win on the road against a quality opponent in my own conference (something they've struggled to do this season), than playing a crappy team from the eastern conference whom they've handled relatively easily this season (even if it will be televised nationally).

 

[posey55]

Watch out for the tight rims in Utah , they'll kill ya everytime

:36_11_6:

 

[AtlHawks]

Just locked in Dallas +3. :tiphat:

 

[SportsNut]

Good Luck ATL. I never had the chance to really look it at and saw it had gone to 3.5 . Funny thing was all day I wanted to ask why you didnt love your Hawks today?

 

[AtlHawks]

Sportsnut- got taken by Dal last night. Undervalued that Home Court in SLC.

I did love my boyz last night, but hardly ever post a play on them unless they are a dog. Feel like a jinx when they are favs.

5 game winning streak, first time since 1999. Progress...