Potential Upsets and Blowouts the Focus in Wednesday’s Prop Bets
Wednesday’s betting card contains three matches and many more prop betting opportunities. Portugal-Morocco should be very competitive while the only question for Uruguay and Spain is how great their margin of victory will be.
World Cup: Wednesday Prop Bets
Portugal - Morocco (8 a.m. ET)
It is easy for bettors to be carried away by a star-studded team like Portugal. Beneath the surface of the spectacle that Portugal provided in its dramatic 3-3 draw with Spain, there is a lot to worry about. For one, the impetus for attack came overwhelmingly from one player, Ronaldo. He is perhaps the best in the world, but it remains to be seen if Portugal can continue to rely on him alone for scoring. Against Spain, Portugal did achieve three goals, but one was from a penalty, another from a masterful free kick, and another from a major goalkeeping error. Those aren’t reliable sources of offense and, as long as Morocco doesn’t stupidly concede any penalties or make any ridiculous goalkeeping errors, we should expect a letdown in the scoring department. Morocco has shown in qualifiers and recent friendlies that it has a tough backline, led by defender Mehdi Benatia, who plays for top Italian club Juventus and for whom Ronaldo is already a familiar opponent.
Additionally, Portugal’s defense evinced worrisome form, allowing three Spanish goals. Morocco will be more successful scoring-wise than in its 0-1 opening defeat against Iran. For starters, they will score in the right goal this time. Secondly, they won’t be forced to break down the opposing defense but will thrive in its counterattack. Morocco’s top scoring threat will be Hakim Ziyech, an attacking midfielder for second-place Ajax in the Dutch Eredivisie. He is known for his boldness, creativity and he won’t be afraid to try to open things up for his side in the attack. He shows strong form, scoring goals in March and June Friendlies. He produced nine goals and 15 assists for Ajax and two goals for his side in six qualifiers. Bet365 offers a great payout of +375 for Ziyech scoring.
Nobody will give Morocco a chance, but I think we see a let-down from Portugal and a tough bounce-back effort from Morocco. Ronaldo won’t score three goals again, but he should be good to score one and you can get him to score at anytime at -120. I expect Morocco to score as well and you can get both teams to score at +105. For Morocco +1, Bet365 offers +125.
Uruguay - Saudi Arabia (11 a.m. ET)
Saudi Arabia, the second-lowest ranking squad in the tournament, looks like it will be the punching bag of its group—the team that its opponent tries to run up the score against just in case advancing to the knockout stage comes down to goal difference. Saudi Arabia’s 0-5 loss against Russia represents a continuation of its poor form in recent friendlies, which included a 0-4 defeat against Belgium and a 0-3 blowout against Peru. The 3-0 win by Peru was Peru's largest victory in years. The Saudis’ dreadful showing against Russia is no different from their last World Cup appearance, when, in 2002, they were outscored 12-0 in the Group Stage.
Uruguay is certainly capable of scoring with Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani. They barely failed to score in their opener but boast between them 93 goals for Uruguay. Cavani scored 10 goals in qualifiers and shows good form, having scored two goals in March friendlies. Suarez produced five goals in qualifiers and 25 for FC Barcelona in La Liga. Both are too chalky to bet on to score, so a team-oriented prop bet will be smarter.
Against Russia, the Saudis didn’t manage a single shot on target. They lack an in-form scoring threat and have yet to demonstrate any offensive flow. You can bet on Uruguay to win while the Saudis don’t score at -175 odds. That would be smarter than betting that both teams don’t score because you are deriving a larger payout for the Saudi shutout by also expecting Uruguay to win. In expectation of a blowout, you can avoid the chalk and bet on Uruguay -2.5, -3 at +175 odds.
Spain - Iran (2 p.m. ET)
Spain showed tremendous character in its opener, coming from behind twice in order to achieve a draw against Portugal despite some defensive lapses. One of those lapses was a penalty, the other was an error from goalkeeper David De Gea. It is concerning in view of the knockout stages (assuming that Spain advances) that De Gea also committed a goalkeeping error in a June friendly against Switzerland that cost his side a clean sheet. So it’s not like his error against Portugal was a one-time thing. But I don’t expect the Iranians to test De Gea because they won’t even possess much of the ball. Iran defeated Morocco thanks to a fortunate own goal in the closing stages of the match. Their possession rate was only 32%.
I am impressed by the character which the Spanish showed in their opener and I think that they will put their stamp on this match from the beginning. Iran, which is giving itself hope of advancing because it currently leads the group, will put everything into its defense. So the best way to bet on an aggressive Spanish beginning against a tight defense is corners. Spain will dominate possession from start to finish and you can bet on them to win the corners handicap (-5) at +100 odds on Bet365. You can bet on a throw-in within the first five minutes at -111 odds and a corner at an immense +1000.
Isco will be one key for Spain, Diego Costa the other. Isco is a midfielder who completed 90% of his passes and achieved two assists for Real Madrid in the Champions League. Costa is a constant scoring threat who nearly equalized Ronaldo, achieving two goals against Portugal. You can bet on Costa to score anytime at -120 odds and this would be a much safer investment than investing more chalk in either Cavani or Suarez of Uruguay. The Spanish scored 2+ goals in eight of 10 qualifiers and three against Portugal. I expect Spain to manage likewise either two or three goals against Iran. You can bet on Spain to win and over 2.5 goals at -120 odds, but there are more modest alternatives. One alternative is two or three goals at +105 so that you profit if Spain only wins 2-0. Another alternative is Spain -1.5, -2.0 at -116.
Wednesday’s betting card contains three matches and many more prop betting opportunities. Portugal-Morocco should be very competitive while the only question for Uruguay and Spain is how great their margin of victory will be.
World Cup: Wednesday Prop Bets
Portugal - Morocco (8 a.m. ET)
It is easy for bettors to be carried away by a star-studded team like Portugal. Beneath the surface of the spectacle that Portugal provided in its dramatic 3-3 draw with Spain, there is a lot to worry about. For one, the impetus for attack came overwhelmingly from one player, Ronaldo. He is perhaps the best in the world, but it remains to be seen if Portugal can continue to rely on him alone for scoring. Against Spain, Portugal did achieve three goals, but one was from a penalty, another from a masterful free kick, and another from a major goalkeeping error. Those aren’t reliable sources of offense and, as long as Morocco doesn’t stupidly concede any penalties or make any ridiculous goalkeeping errors, we should expect a letdown in the scoring department. Morocco has shown in qualifiers and recent friendlies that it has a tough backline, led by defender Mehdi Benatia, who plays for top Italian club Juventus and for whom Ronaldo is already a familiar opponent.
Additionally, Portugal’s defense evinced worrisome form, allowing three Spanish goals. Morocco will be more successful scoring-wise than in its 0-1 opening defeat against Iran. For starters, they will score in the right goal this time. Secondly, they won’t be forced to break down the opposing defense but will thrive in its counterattack. Morocco’s top scoring threat will be Hakim Ziyech, an attacking midfielder for second-place Ajax in the Dutch Eredivisie. He is known for his boldness, creativity and he won’t be afraid to try to open things up for his side in the attack. He shows strong form, scoring goals in March and June Friendlies. He produced nine goals and 15 assists for Ajax and two goals for his side in six qualifiers. Bet365 offers a great payout of +375 for Ziyech scoring.
Nobody will give Morocco a chance, but I think we see a let-down from Portugal and a tough bounce-back effort from Morocco. Ronaldo won’t score three goals again, but he should be good to score one and you can get him to score at anytime at -120. I expect Morocco to score as well and you can get both teams to score at +105. For Morocco +1, Bet365 offers +125.
Uruguay - Saudi Arabia (11 a.m. ET)
Saudi Arabia, the second-lowest ranking squad in the tournament, looks like it will be the punching bag of its group—the team that its opponent tries to run up the score against just in case advancing to the knockout stage comes down to goal difference. Saudi Arabia’s 0-5 loss against Russia represents a continuation of its poor form in recent friendlies, which included a 0-4 defeat against Belgium and a 0-3 blowout against Peru. The 3-0 win by Peru was Peru's largest victory in years. The Saudis’ dreadful showing against Russia is no different from their last World Cup appearance, when, in 2002, they were outscored 12-0 in the Group Stage.
Uruguay is certainly capable of scoring with Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani. They barely failed to score in their opener but boast between them 93 goals for Uruguay. Cavani scored 10 goals in qualifiers and shows good form, having scored two goals in March friendlies. Suarez produced five goals in qualifiers and 25 for FC Barcelona in La Liga. Both are too chalky to bet on to score, so a team-oriented prop bet will be smarter.
Against Russia, the Saudis didn’t manage a single shot on target. They lack an in-form scoring threat and have yet to demonstrate any offensive flow. You can bet on Uruguay to win while the Saudis don’t score at -175 odds. That would be smarter than betting that both teams don’t score because you are deriving a larger payout for the Saudi shutout by also expecting Uruguay to win. In expectation of a blowout, you can avoid the chalk and bet on Uruguay -2.5, -3 at +175 odds.
Spain - Iran (2 p.m. ET)
Spain showed tremendous character in its opener, coming from behind twice in order to achieve a draw against Portugal despite some defensive lapses. One of those lapses was a penalty, the other was an error from goalkeeper David De Gea. It is concerning in view of the knockout stages (assuming that Spain advances) that De Gea also committed a goalkeeping error in a June friendly against Switzerland that cost his side a clean sheet. So it’s not like his error against Portugal was a one-time thing. But I don’t expect the Iranians to test De Gea because they won’t even possess much of the ball. Iran defeated Morocco thanks to a fortunate own goal in the closing stages of the match. Their possession rate was only 32%.
I am impressed by the character which the Spanish showed in their opener and I think that they will put their stamp on this match from the beginning. Iran, which is giving itself hope of advancing because it currently leads the group, will put everything into its defense. So the best way to bet on an aggressive Spanish beginning against a tight defense is corners. Spain will dominate possession from start to finish and you can bet on them to win the corners handicap (-5) at +100 odds on Bet365. You can bet on a throw-in within the first five minutes at -111 odds and a corner at an immense +1000.
Isco will be one key for Spain, Diego Costa the other. Isco is a midfielder who completed 90% of his passes and achieved two assists for Real Madrid in the Champions League. Costa is a constant scoring threat who nearly equalized Ronaldo, achieving two goals against Portugal. You can bet on Costa to score anytime at -120 odds and this would be a much safer investment than investing more chalk in either Cavani or Suarez of Uruguay. The Spanish scored 2+ goals in eight of 10 qualifiers and three against Portugal. I expect Spain to manage likewise either two or three goals against Iran. You can bet on Spain to win and over 2.5 goals at -120 odds, but there are more modest alternatives. One alternative is two or three goals at +105 so that you profit if Spain only wins 2-0. Another alternative is Spain -1.5, -2.0 at -116.
