Best NBA Player Props Today
Orlando’s Franz Wagner: Over 19.5 Points (+115) at Bovada
Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 p.m. ET
The best Magic player to invest in tonight – at least from a point total perspective – will be one who regularly thrives at the basket. Philadelphia misses star center Joel Embiid and his elite rim protection. Partly because he missed so many games in the regular season, the 76ers allowed the ninth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Now, the Magic player who makes the most field goals per game within this space is Paolo Banchero. But for an investment in his point total “over” to be worthwhile from an odds standpoint, we’d need him to score 24 or more points. In seven games in April, though, he has only exceeded 23 points one time despite having favorable matchups.
I like Franz Wagner because he makes the second-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket on his team and because, unlike Banchero, oddsmakers do not accord him too much respect. We only need him to score 20 points tonight, and this point total wager is at plus money odds. Wagner’s form creates promise, as he has scored 20 or more points in both of his last two games while adding a three-point shooting prowess that Banchero has lacked for some weeks. Wagner reached 26 minutes in his last game, which attests to the development of his fitness since he returned from injury on April 1 and which creates further promise for his scoring outlook going forward.
Because he is able to play more than enough minutes, because his form is strong, and because the matchup is so favorable to him, his point total “over” merits your investment.
Philadelphia’s VJ Edgecombe Under 1.5 Made Threes (+115) at Bovada
Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 p.m. ET
Relative to last month, VJ Edgecombe’s three-point shooting volume is down somewhat. This reduction makes sense given how poorly he is shooting. In April, his three-point conversion rate is 28.6 percent. He is 1-for-7 from deep in his last two games combined.
He has struggled especially against teams that focus on locking down the perimeter. This month, he has faced two teams that rank top-three at limiting opposing three-point attempts. In those two games, he went 0-for-2 from behind the arc against Indiana and 0-for-2 from deep against Minnesota.
His struggles against strong perimeter defenses is more extensive. Beyond Indiana and Minnesota, the other most recent team that he played that ranks top-five at limiting opposing three-point attempts is Portland. He shot 1-for-5 from behind the arc against the Trail Blazers. Now he faces an Orlando team that ranks fourth at limiting opposing three-point attempts. The Magic also rank number one at limiting opposing wide-open three-point attempts. He will fail to make two three-pointers tonight against such a strong and devoted perimeter defense.
Golden State’s De’Anthony Melton Under 12.5 Points (-110) at Bovada
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Clippers, 10 p.m. ET
The De’Anthony Melton point total “under” is a wager that accounts for the significance of matchups and for the betting value that matchup analysis can uncover. In the regular season, Melton averaged 12.3 points per game. However, he proved over and over again that he matches up terribly against the Clippers. In his three games against them, he scored four, seven, and five points, respectively.
Golden State struggled offensively as a whole against the Clippers – in four games against them, Golden State converted only 40.9 percent of its field goal attempts and 31.8 percent of its three-point attempts. The Warriors also mustered all of 98, 102, and 101 points in three respective games against the Clippers before scoring 110 points against them in the regular season finale. Fewer overall points means individual players scoring fewer points, but Melton struggled to score even in that comparatively higher-scoring game.
Orlando’s Franz Wagner: Over 19.5 Points (+115) at Bovada
Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 p.m. ET
The best Magic player to invest in tonight – at least from a point total perspective – will be one who regularly thrives at the basket. Philadelphia misses star center Joel Embiid and his elite rim protection. Partly because he missed so many games in the regular season, the 76ers allowed the ninth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Now, the Magic player who makes the most field goals per game within this space is Paolo Banchero. But for an investment in his point total “over” to be worthwhile from an odds standpoint, we’d need him to score 24 or more points. In seven games in April, though, he has only exceeded 23 points one time despite having favorable matchups.
I like Franz Wagner because he makes the second-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket on his team and because, unlike Banchero, oddsmakers do not accord him too much respect. We only need him to score 20 points tonight, and this point total wager is at plus money odds. Wagner’s form creates promise, as he has scored 20 or more points in both of his last two games while adding a three-point shooting prowess that Banchero has lacked for some weeks. Wagner reached 26 minutes in his last game, which attests to the development of his fitness since he returned from injury on April 1 and which creates further promise for his scoring outlook going forward.
Because he is able to play more than enough minutes, because his form is strong, and because the matchup is so favorable to him, his point total “over” merits your investment.
Philadelphia’s VJ Edgecombe Under 1.5 Made Threes (+115) at Bovada
Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 p.m. ET
Relative to last month, VJ Edgecombe’s three-point shooting volume is down somewhat. This reduction makes sense given how poorly he is shooting. In April, his three-point conversion rate is 28.6 percent. He is 1-for-7 from deep in his last two games combined.
He has struggled especially against teams that focus on locking down the perimeter. This month, he has faced two teams that rank top-three at limiting opposing three-point attempts. In those two games, he went 0-for-2 from behind the arc against Indiana and 0-for-2 from deep against Minnesota.
His struggles against strong perimeter defenses is more extensive. Beyond Indiana and Minnesota, the other most recent team that he played that ranks top-five at limiting opposing three-point attempts is Portland. He shot 1-for-5 from behind the arc against the Trail Blazers. Now he faces an Orlando team that ranks fourth at limiting opposing three-point attempts. The Magic also rank number one at limiting opposing wide-open three-point attempts. He will fail to make two three-pointers tonight against such a strong and devoted perimeter defense.
Golden State’s De’Anthony Melton Under 12.5 Points (-110) at Bovada
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Clippers, 10 p.m. ET
The De’Anthony Melton point total “under” is a wager that accounts for the significance of matchups and for the betting value that matchup analysis can uncover. In the regular season, Melton averaged 12.3 points per game. However, he proved over and over again that he matches up terribly against the Clippers. In his three games against them, he scored four, seven, and five points, respectively.
Golden State struggled offensively as a whole against the Clippers – in four games against them, Golden State converted only 40.9 percent of its field goal attempts and 31.8 percent of its three-point attempts. The Warriors also mustered all of 98, 102, and 101 points in three respective games against the Clippers before scoring 110 points against them in the regular season finale. Fewer overall points means individual players scoring fewer points, but Melton struggled to score even in that comparatively higher-scoring game.