Best MLB Player Props for July 5: Fireworks Remain in Chicago's South Side Tonight
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, July 5, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Jose Berrios (Toronto Blue Jays)
Toronto starts Jose Berrios tonight.
Berrios throws four pitches: a slurve, sinker, fastball, and changeup.
A flaw that is generally apparent in his pitches is that he makes too many mistakes in locating them.
As heat maps show, he often leaves them in the middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Bad location makes him especially prone to giving up home runs.
Hence, he has allowed at least one home run in each of his last three starts.
In these three starts, he's allowed a total of five home runs.
It is therefore relatively likely that he allows over two earned runs upon a single swing of an opponent's bat.
But Berrios also generally struggles to induce soft contact and to avoid hard contact.
Berrios' pitches are generally not impressive in terms of velocity, spin, and movement.
For example, his fastball places in the 23rd percentile in spin.
His pitches lack the quality to give batters a more difficult challenge.
Chicago's Lineup
Active White Sox batters tend not to find Berrios challenging.
Andrew Benintendi, Andrew Vaughn, and Gavin Sheets slug well over .600 against Berrios.
Furthermore, Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert Jr. slug .500 or better with Berrios on the mound.
History in Chicago
Berrios has struggled in the White Sox's venue.
Especially due to recent starts at this venue, his career ERA here is 5.07 in 12 tries.
Good Form
The White Sox have also been hitting the ball well lately.
While they scored only three runs yesterday, Toronto's starter barely managed to induce soft contact.
Chicago's frequent ability to make strong contact with the ball yesterday is consistent with the fact that its slugging rate is .480 in the past seven days.
Best Bet: Jose Berrios over 2.5 earned runs allowed at -135 with Bet365
Lance Lynn (Chicago White Sox)
Lance Lynn starts for the White Sox today.
It is an automatic that Lynn will give up more than two earned runs.
He has done so in each of his last six starts.
During this six-start stretch, he has allowed at least four earned runs four times.
This trend has sustained itself even while he's faced weaker lineups and opponents at home.
Lynn's Arsenal
Mostly, Lynn throws a fastball, cutter, sinker, changeup, curveball, and slider.
While he throws many pitches, he has trouble finding a single one to rely on.
All of the pitches that he throws over four percent of the time yield a slugging rate of .444 or higher.
The pitch that he throws most often, his fastball, yields a .582 slugging rate.
This pitch lacks velocity and often lands in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
While especially his cutter has similar locational problems, his fastball is the pitch that opposing batters will most often find in favorable locations.
Matchup Factors
Toronto's hitting outlook tonight is positive also because it matches up well against Lynn.
The Blue Jays rank tenth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Moreover, they will be glad that Lynn is very much a fly ball-inducing pitcher.
They slug .463 against such pitchers compared to .364 against ground ball-inducing ones.
Even Toronto's lesser-known hitters must look forward to this matchup with Lynn.
Kevin Kiermaier, for example, is already 3-for-8 with a .500 slugging rate against Lynn.
Best Bet: Lance Lynn over 2.5 earned runs allowed at -145 with Bet365
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Wednesday, July 5, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee
Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs)
Justin Steele starts for the Cubs tonight.
Steele carries strong form into this game: he has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts.
In the one exception, he allowed two earned runs to a tough Baltimore lineup that ranks fifth against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Steele's outlook is rather positive tonight because Milwaukee ranks 25th with a .383 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Steele's Arsenal
Primarily, Steele throws a fastball and slider.
These two pitches make up 95.9 percent of his arsenal.
To a minor extent, he has also mixed in a sinker, changeup, and curveball.
It is smart of him to rely so extensively on his fastball and slider because these pitches are so difficult to hit.
His fastball yields a .246 BA and .351 slugging rate while his slider yields a .171 BA and .267 slugging rate.
Both pitches are unique especially in view of their extremely distinct horizontal movement.
This movement is one factor that contributes to the difficulty that batters have against these pitches even when he leaves them in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
Another factor is the high level of spin that he gives both pitches.
Their spin makes it harder for batters to track their movement.
He does have strong command, as evident in his better-than 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but he can also more easily afford to throw a high rate of pitches in the strike zone because his pitches possess so much quality in themselves.
Steele's ability to throw high-quality versions of pitches that the Brewers struggle to hit from lefties helps explain why they've mustered a combined total of one run in his last three starts against them.
Best Bet: Justin Steele under 1.5 earned runs allowed at +115 with BetMGM
- Jose Berrios over 2.5 earned runs allowed at -135 with Bet365
- Lance Lynn over 2.5 earned runs allowed at -145 with Bet365
- Justin Steele under 1.5 earned runs allowed at +115 with BetMGM
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, July 5, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Jose Berrios (Toronto Blue Jays)
Toronto starts Jose Berrios tonight.
Berrios throws four pitches: a slurve, sinker, fastball, and changeup.
A flaw that is generally apparent in his pitches is that he makes too many mistakes in locating them.
As heat maps show, he often leaves them in the middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Bad location makes him especially prone to giving up home runs.
Hence, he has allowed at least one home run in each of his last three starts.
In these three starts, he's allowed a total of five home runs.
It is therefore relatively likely that he allows over two earned runs upon a single swing of an opponent's bat.
But Berrios also generally struggles to induce soft contact and to avoid hard contact.
Berrios' pitches are generally not impressive in terms of velocity, spin, and movement.
For example, his fastball places in the 23rd percentile in spin.
His pitches lack the quality to give batters a more difficult challenge.
Chicago's Lineup
Active White Sox batters tend not to find Berrios challenging.
Andrew Benintendi, Andrew Vaughn, and Gavin Sheets slug well over .600 against Berrios.
Furthermore, Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert Jr. slug .500 or better with Berrios on the mound.
History in Chicago
Berrios has struggled in the White Sox's venue.
Especially due to recent starts at this venue, his career ERA here is 5.07 in 12 tries.
Good Form
The White Sox have also been hitting the ball well lately.
While they scored only three runs yesterday, Toronto's starter barely managed to induce soft contact.
Chicago's frequent ability to make strong contact with the ball yesterday is consistent with the fact that its slugging rate is .480 in the past seven days.
Best Bet: Jose Berrios over 2.5 earned runs allowed at -135 with Bet365
Lance Lynn (Chicago White Sox)
Lance Lynn starts for the White Sox today.
It is an automatic that Lynn will give up more than two earned runs.
He has done so in each of his last six starts.
During this six-start stretch, he has allowed at least four earned runs four times.
This trend has sustained itself even while he's faced weaker lineups and opponents at home.
Lynn's Arsenal
Mostly, Lynn throws a fastball, cutter, sinker, changeup, curveball, and slider.
While he throws many pitches, he has trouble finding a single one to rely on.
All of the pitches that he throws over four percent of the time yield a slugging rate of .444 or higher.
The pitch that he throws most often, his fastball, yields a .582 slugging rate.
This pitch lacks velocity and often lands in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
While especially his cutter has similar locational problems, his fastball is the pitch that opposing batters will most often find in favorable locations.
Matchup Factors
Toronto's hitting outlook tonight is positive also because it matches up well against Lynn.
The Blue Jays rank tenth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Moreover, they will be glad that Lynn is very much a fly ball-inducing pitcher.
They slug .463 against such pitchers compared to .364 against ground ball-inducing ones.
Even Toronto's lesser-known hitters must look forward to this matchup with Lynn.
Kevin Kiermaier, for example, is already 3-for-8 with a .500 slugging rate against Lynn.
Best Bet: Lance Lynn over 2.5 earned runs allowed at -145 with Bet365
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Wednesday, July 5, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee
Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs)
Justin Steele starts for the Cubs tonight.
Steele carries strong form into this game: he has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts.
In the one exception, he allowed two earned runs to a tough Baltimore lineup that ranks fifth against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Steele's outlook is rather positive tonight because Milwaukee ranks 25th with a .383 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Steele's Arsenal
Primarily, Steele throws a fastball and slider.
These two pitches make up 95.9 percent of his arsenal.
To a minor extent, he has also mixed in a sinker, changeup, and curveball.
It is smart of him to rely so extensively on his fastball and slider because these pitches are so difficult to hit.
His fastball yields a .246 BA and .351 slugging rate while his slider yields a .171 BA and .267 slugging rate.
Both pitches are unique especially in view of their extremely distinct horizontal movement.
This movement is one factor that contributes to the difficulty that batters have against these pitches even when he leaves them in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
Another factor is the high level of spin that he gives both pitches.
Their spin makes it harder for batters to track their movement.
He does have strong command, as evident in his better-than 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but he can also more easily afford to throw a high rate of pitches in the strike zone because his pitches possess so much quality in themselves.
Steele's ability to throw high-quality versions of pitches that the Brewers struggle to hit from lefties helps explain why they've mustered a combined total of one run in his last three starts against them.
Best Bet: Justin Steele under 1.5 earned runs allowed at +115 with BetMGM
