3 Player Props May 3: Toronto's Alek Manoah to Mow Down Boston's Lineup
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Wednesday, May 3, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida
Who Starts for Pittsburgh?
Mitch Keller starts for the Pirates today.
Keller is an interesting case to consider for hitter prop betting because he isn't giving up many runs but is alluring to go against for different reasons.
His low ERA is a consequence of his ability to strand runners -- his 78.1 percent strand rate is unusually impressive.
Even if he were to continue stranding runners at such a high rate, we can choose a prop bet for a hitter that does not require the batter to get an RBI.
So, Keller's good ERA is rather irrelevant.
Plus, it seems unlikely that any his strand rate will continue to be so good.
Tampa Bay scores the most runs per game, so you have to figure today's game as a favorable opportunity for the Rays to cause Keller's strand rate to drop.
More to the point, Keller's opposing pitches look very hittable overall, based on the BA and slugging rates that they yield.
While his fastball is excellent, he only throws it 23.9 percent of the time.
As heat maps show, his pitches generally suffer for landing in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
My Favorite Rays' Batter
I especially like Tampa Bay's Randy Arozarena.
He comes into today's game in strong form, having collected at least one hit in four straight games.
Two of these four games were multi-hit games and three included at least one extra-base hit.
Arozarena is primed to thrive today because he slugs .632 against Keller's favorite pitches from righties.
Therefore, let's count on him to record at least an extra-base hit if not two singles.
Best Bet: Randy Arozarena to record 2+ total bases at +115 with Bovada
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, May 3, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Who Starts for the White Sox?
Chicago starts Dylan Cease today.
Cease faced the Twins on April 10, so they have the advantage of having seen his pitching arsenal recently.
In that game, Cease yielded a low ERA.
However, he was fortunate not to give up more hits and runs, because he benefitted from a low opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
It was fortunate for Cease that Minnesota's BABIP in that game was low because the Twins achieved a high hard contact rate against his pitches.
They were hitting Cease well but not getting the hits one would have expected them to based on the extent of their hard contact.
Cease's start against Minnesota was also his last one in which he allowed fewer than two earned runs.
He has been struggling especially recently, allowing six earned runs in four innings in his last start, which followed another outing in which he yielded a 6.75 ERA.
His diminished ability this year to command the plate and accrue strikeouts has contributed to his vulnerability.
Minnesota's Max Kepler
My favorite Twins' batter to take advantage of Cease's vulnerabilities is Max Kepler.
Kepler has constructed a positive track record against Cease after seeing him plenty of times because they play in the same division.
His outlook today is strong because he is 6-for-20, which amounts to a .300 BA, with a .750 slugging rate in his career with Cease on the mound.
For the above reasons, let's count on Kepler to achieve at least an extra-base hit today, although two singles would also suffice.
Best Bet: Max Kepler to record 2+ total bases at +135 with Bovada
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Reed Sox
Wednesday, May 3, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. at Fenway Park in Boston
How Long Will Toronto's Alek Manoah Last?
I am interested in Alek Manoah's strikeout total for this game, the over/under for which is 4.5.
For the "over" to hit, it will be helpful if he pitches more innings because more innings means more chances to strike out opposing batters.
One reason why Manoah's outlook today is strong is that he thrives against Boston.
In his career, he is 4-0 with a 1.46 ERA in six career starts facing the Red Sox.
Moreover, in Boston's Fenway Park, he is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two career starts.
At this venue, he has recorded as many strikeouts as he has innings pitched.
While Manoah has struggled this year, he has still been able to rely on succeeding against the teams against which he already has a strong track record.
So, for example, he already had strong histories against both the Yankees and Royals.
When he faced them, he limited each team's lineup to zero runs over the course of seven innings.
Both teams also struck out five times.
Expect Boston to be another team that he continues thriving against.
Strikeout Total
4.5 seems like a low over/under for Manoah's strikeout total.
Even with his struggles, he is still usually exceeding this total.
In four of his six starts so far, he has struck out five or more batters.
Manoah can reliably record strikeouts with multiple pitches, but his favorite one is his slider.
Benefitting from its location and change of pace, this pitch has a 31.4 percent whiff rate.
Best Bet: Alek Manoah over 4.5 strikeouts at +105 with Bovada
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Wednesday, May 3, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida
- Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller is stranding batters at what seems like an unsustainably high rate, but the Rays excel at scoring runs.
- Randy Arozarena is heating up for the Rays.
- Arozarena hits Keller's pitches very well.
Who Starts for Pittsburgh?
Mitch Keller starts for the Pirates today.
Keller is an interesting case to consider for hitter prop betting because he isn't giving up many runs but is alluring to go against for different reasons.
His low ERA is a consequence of his ability to strand runners -- his 78.1 percent strand rate is unusually impressive.
Even if he were to continue stranding runners at such a high rate, we can choose a prop bet for a hitter that does not require the batter to get an RBI.
So, Keller's good ERA is rather irrelevant.
Plus, it seems unlikely that any his strand rate will continue to be so good.
Tampa Bay scores the most runs per game, so you have to figure today's game as a favorable opportunity for the Rays to cause Keller's strand rate to drop.
More to the point, Keller's opposing pitches look very hittable overall, based on the BA and slugging rates that they yield.
While his fastball is excellent, he only throws it 23.9 percent of the time.
As heat maps show, his pitches generally suffer for landing in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
My Favorite Rays' Batter
I especially like Tampa Bay's Randy Arozarena.
He comes into today's game in strong form, having collected at least one hit in four straight games.
Two of these four games were multi-hit games and three included at least one extra-base hit.
Arozarena is primed to thrive today because he slugs .632 against Keller's favorite pitches from righties.
Therefore, let's count on him to record at least an extra-base hit if not two singles.
Best Bet: Randy Arozarena to record 2+ total bases at +115 with Bovada
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, May 3, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
- Chicago's Dylan Cease is not performing like the solid pitcher that people think of him as.
- Cease's form is rather poor, based on his declining ability to limit opposing run totals.
- Minnesota's Max Kepler has a strong track record against Cease.
Who Starts for the White Sox?
Chicago starts Dylan Cease today.
Cease faced the Twins on April 10, so they have the advantage of having seen his pitching arsenal recently.
In that game, Cease yielded a low ERA.
However, he was fortunate not to give up more hits and runs, because he benefitted from a low opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
It was fortunate for Cease that Minnesota's BABIP in that game was low because the Twins achieved a high hard contact rate against his pitches.
They were hitting Cease well but not getting the hits one would have expected them to based on the extent of their hard contact.
Cease's start against Minnesota was also his last one in which he allowed fewer than two earned runs.
He has been struggling especially recently, allowing six earned runs in four innings in his last start, which followed another outing in which he yielded a 6.75 ERA.
His diminished ability this year to command the plate and accrue strikeouts has contributed to his vulnerability.
Minnesota's Max Kepler
My favorite Twins' batter to take advantage of Cease's vulnerabilities is Max Kepler.
Kepler has constructed a positive track record against Cease after seeing him plenty of times because they play in the same division.
His outlook today is strong because he is 6-for-20, which amounts to a .300 BA, with a .750 slugging rate in his career with Cease on the mound.
For the above reasons, let's count on Kepler to achieve at least an extra-base hit today, although two singles would also suffice.
Best Bet: Max Kepler to record 2+ total bases at +135 with Bovada
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Reed Sox
Wednesday, May 3, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. at Fenway Park in Boston
- Toronto's Alek Manoah has an excellent history against the Red Sox.
- Manoah will get more strikeouts today because he will last several innings.
- Manoah's strikeout total is too low, as evident in his repeated ability to strike out five or more batters in a given game.
How Long Will Toronto's Alek Manoah Last?
I am interested in Alek Manoah's strikeout total for this game, the over/under for which is 4.5.
For the "over" to hit, it will be helpful if he pitches more innings because more innings means more chances to strike out opposing batters.
One reason why Manoah's outlook today is strong is that he thrives against Boston.
In his career, he is 4-0 with a 1.46 ERA in six career starts facing the Red Sox.
Moreover, in Boston's Fenway Park, he is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two career starts.
At this venue, he has recorded as many strikeouts as he has innings pitched.
While Manoah has struggled this year, he has still been able to rely on succeeding against the teams against which he already has a strong track record.
So, for example, he already had strong histories against both the Yankees and Royals.
When he faced them, he limited each team's lineup to zero runs over the course of seven innings.
Both teams also struck out five times.
Expect Boston to be another team that he continues thriving against.
Strikeout Total
4.5 seems like a low over/under for Manoah's strikeout total.
Even with his struggles, he is still usually exceeding this total.
In four of his six starts so far, he has struck out five or more batters.
Manoah can reliably record strikeouts with multiple pitches, but his favorite one is his slider.
Benefitting from its location and change of pace, this pitch has a 31.4 percent whiff rate.
Best Bet: Alek Manoah over 4.5 strikeouts at +105 with Bovada
