3 Player Props April 26: The Giants Better Watch Out for Paul Goldschmidt
Seattle Mariners vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Wednesday, April 26, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
Who Starts for Philadelphia?
Taijuan Walker starts for the Phillies today.
He is described as throwing six different pitches.
However, two of them, his curveball and cutter, are rather infrequent features of his arsenal.
Instead of his curveball and cutter, he favors his split finger, fastball, sinker, and sweeper.
Any determination of how an opposing batter will fare against Walker must focus on assessing the likelihood that he hits one of these four pitches.
There is a lot to recommend against Walker, in terms of the quality of his pitching arsenal as a whole
One of his problems is his determination to feature a variety of pitches.
His best pitch is his split finger.While, to his credit, it's his most frequent pitch and he throws it more often than he did last year, he still only throws it 33 percent of the time.
This means that batters often see his fastball, which he often leaves in the middle of the plate.
His sinker can also be vulnerable especially when he misses with its location.
Overall, his pitching repertoire hasn't been able to keep him from yielding a poor 4.64 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding).
My Favorite Mariners' Batter
Seattle's Jarred Kelenic looks reliable today because of his track record against Walker's favorite pitches.
He slugs .958 in 24 at-bats against these pitches from righties.
His form is consistent, too, as he enters today on a five-game hit streak that includes a three-game streak of extra-base hits.
Thus, let's count on him to record at least two singles or an extra-base hit.
Best Bet: Jarred Kelenic to record 2+ total bases at +140 with Bovada
Who Starts for Seattle?
Despite being scratched yesterday, Seattle's Logan Gilbert will start
What happened was that he was suffering muscle spasms on Sunday, and this concerned his manager.
While it is good for his health that he received an extra rest day, which he apparently really needed, this delay is not good for his outlook today.
He is trying to get into the flow of the season -- his performances have been inconsistent.
It is hard to become consistent, though, when unexpected scheduling disruptions happen, such as when you have your start pushed back.
Gilbert is anyhow a very hittable pitcher.
He throws his fastball almost half the time -- it's his favorite pitch.
But this pitch has awfully little spin, and heat maps show that he often leaves it in the more middle parts of the plate.
Because it lacks quality as a pitch, it's yielding a .324 BA and .514 slugging rate.
Philadelphia's Alec Bohm
Opposing batters will, therefore, often get to see a pitch that is relatively easy to hit.
Now, we know that Gilbert doesn't allow a lot of runs. His ERA is low.
But we can steer clear of requiring a batter we'd like to invest in to have to score a run.
Let's choose a batter who we just need to get some hits.
My choice is Alec Bohm, who slugs .571 against Gilbert's pitches from righties, the fastball, slider, curveball, and split finger.
He also enters today's game on a four-game hit streak and a two-game streak of getting an extra-base hit.
Best Bet: Alec Bohm to record 2+ total bases at +145 with Bovada
San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Wednesday, April 26, 2023 at 9:45 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Who Starts for San Francisco?
San Francisco starts Anthony DeSclafani today.
DeSclafani is still having the best season of his career.
But I say "still" because he is starting to fall back down to Earth.
Compared to his ERA in previous seasons, his ERA this season looked wildly impressive before his last start.
Most recently, though, he allowed four runs in five innings to the Mets.
What is perhaps most concerning is that he has been performing progressively worse in every start.
The last start was just the one that was noticeably poor.
He got crushed with hard contact -- he yielded a hard contact rate of 47.1.
Moreover, his soft contact rate has declined since his first two starts.
These stats show that opponents are making better contact with his pitches.
His favorite two pitches are his slider and sinker, which make up 61.7 percent of his arsenal.
The latter has been rather vulnerable to yielding extra-base hits, although his slider doesn't look any better, in terms of spin rate, locational tendencies, or velo, than his slider from last year that batters crushed.
Cardinals' Paul Goldschmidt
One can expect Cardinals' slugger Paul Goldschmidt to crush DeSclafani's pitches whenever the two square off.
In his career, Goldschmidt is 14-for-27 with five doubles and two home runs with DeSclafani on the mound.This amounts to a .519 BA and .926 slugging rate.
Goldschmidt is anyhow a stalwart in the Cardinals' lineup.
The reigning NL MVP, he is a good bet no matter who he's facing off.
But today's game provides a uniquely good opportunity to back him.
Best Bet: Paul Goldschmidt to record 2+ total bases at -110 with Bovada
Seattle Mariners vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Wednesday, April 26, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
Who Starts for Philadelphia?
Taijuan Walker starts for the Phillies today.
He is described as throwing six different pitches.
However, two of them, his curveball and cutter, are rather infrequent features of his arsenal.
Instead of his curveball and cutter, he favors his split finger, fastball, sinker, and sweeper.
Any determination of how an opposing batter will fare against Walker must focus on assessing the likelihood that he hits one of these four pitches.
There is a lot to recommend against Walker, in terms of the quality of his pitching arsenal as a whole
One of his problems is his determination to feature a variety of pitches.
His best pitch is his split finger.While, to his credit, it's his most frequent pitch and he throws it more often than he did last year, he still only throws it 33 percent of the time.
This means that batters often see his fastball, which he often leaves in the middle of the plate.
His sinker can also be vulnerable especially when he misses with its location.
Overall, his pitching repertoire hasn't been able to keep him from yielding a poor 4.64 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding).
My Favorite Mariners' Batter
Seattle's Jarred Kelenic looks reliable today because of his track record against Walker's favorite pitches.
He slugs .958 in 24 at-bats against these pitches from righties.
His form is consistent, too, as he enters today on a five-game hit streak that includes a three-game streak of extra-base hits.
Thus, let's count on him to record at least two singles or an extra-base hit.
Best Bet: Jarred Kelenic to record 2+ total bases at +140 with Bovada
Who Starts for Seattle?
Despite being scratched yesterday, Seattle's Logan Gilbert will start
What happened was that he was suffering muscle spasms on Sunday, and this concerned his manager.
While it is good for his health that he received an extra rest day, which he apparently really needed, this delay is not good for his outlook today.
He is trying to get into the flow of the season -- his performances have been inconsistent.
It is hard to become consistent, though, when unexpected scheduling disruptions happen, such as when you have your start pushed back.
Gilbert is anyhow a very hittable pitcher.
He throws his fastball almost half the time -- it's his favorite pitch.
But this pitch has awfully little spin, and heat maps show that he often leaves it in the more middle parts of the plate.
Because it lacks quality as a pitch, it's yielding a .324 BA and .514 slugging rate.
Philadelphia's Alec Bohm
Opposing batters will, therefore, often get to see a pitch that is relatively easy to hit.
Now, we know that Gilbert doesn't allow a lot of runs. His ERA is low.
But we can steer clear of requiring a batter we'd like to invest in to have to score a run.
Let's choose a batter who we just need to get some hits.
My choice is Alec Bohm, who slugs .571 against Gilbert's pitches from righties, the fastball, slider, curveball, and split finger.
He also enters today's game on a four-game hit streak and a two-game streak of getting an extra-base hit.
Best Bet: Alec Bohm to record 2+ total bases at +145 with Bovada
San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Wednesday, April 26, 2023 at 9:45 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Who Starts for San Francisco?
San Francisco starts Anthony DeSclafani today.
DeSclafani is still having the best season of his career.
But I say "still" because he is starting to fall back down to Earth.
Compared to his ERA in previous seasons, his ERA this season looked wildly impressive before his last start.
Most recently, though, he allowed four runs in five innings to the Mets.
What is perhaps most concerning is that he has been performing progressively worse in every start.
The last start was just the one that was noticeably poor.
He got crushed with hard contact -- he yielded a hard contact rate of 47.1.
Moreover, his soft contact rate has declined since his first two starts.
These stats show that opponents are making better contact with his pitches.
His favorite two pitches are his slider and sinker, which make up 61.7 percent of his arsenal.
The latter has been rather vulnerable to yielding extra-base hits, although his slider doesn't look any better, in terms of spin rate, locational tendencies, or velo, than his slider from last year that batters crushed.
Cardinals' Paul Goldschmidt
One can expect Cardinals' slugger Paul Goldschmidt to crush DeSclafani's pitches whenever the two square off.
In his career, Goldschmidt is 14-for-27 with five doubles and two home runs with DeSclafani on the mound.This amounts to a .519 BA and .926 slugging rate.
Goldschmidt is anyhow a stalwart in the Cardinals' lineup.
The reigning NL MVP, he is a good bet no matter who he's facing off.
But today's game provides a uniquely good opportunity to back him.
Best Bet: Paul Goldschmidt to record 2+ total bases at -110 with Bovada
