MLB Best Player Props April 4: Let's Keep Riding Ryan Mountcastle
Bet Summary: Ryan Mountcastle to record 2+ total bases at -125;
Marcus Semien to record 2+ total bases at -115;
Matt Olson to record 2+ total bases at -105
Oakland Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 6:35 p.m. ET
Oakland's Struggling Starter
Ken Waldichuk starts for Oakland today.
Waldichuk is off to an amazingly awful start to his season.
After allowing six earned runs in his season opener against the Angels, he allowed eight earned runs in his last start against the Rays.
Perhaps most worrying about Waldichuk is sheer number of home runs that he's allowed -- he has allowed seven so far.
Looking For A Hitter
For our player props, we should look for an Oriole batter who is best suited to take advantage of Waldichuk's vulnerabilities -- because, clearly, Waldichuk is vulnerable to opposing hitters.
Waldichuk is a lefty, so we'll want our hitter to be good at hitting lefties.
Also, since Waldichuk is prone to surrendering home runs, we should choose a hitter with power.
Baltimore's Ryan Mountcastle
Orioles' first baseman Ryan Mountcastle meets all the desired criteria.
On the season, he is batting .289 while co-leading the MLB with five home runs and leading all with 18 RBIs.
His current hot streak helps explain his awesome regular season numbers -- he has hit three home runs in his past two games.
Most especially, Mountcastle dominates left-handed pitching -- he slugs an absurd 1.429 against southpaws.
You should therefore play the following prop bet: "Player to Record 2+ Total Bases."
Only hits count for this bet. So, we need our player to get at least two singles, or at least one double, and so on.
Let's make that player be Ryan Mountcastle.
Best Bet: Ryan Mountcastle to record 2+ total bases at -125 with Bovada
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 8:05 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas
Who Starts for Kansas City?
Brad Keller starts for the Royals today.
His 2.89 looks impressive, but it masks a 3.99 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding).
He has been fortunate to yield a low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) while doing an awful job of generating soft contact.
Opponents are making good contact against his pitches, so it is likely that he will give up hits at a higher rate than he's been doing.
Favorite Rangers' Batter
I want to invest in a Rangers' batter who appears most likely to take advantage of Keller's vulnerability to giving up hits via his inability to generate soft contact.
My choice is Marcus Semien most especially because he already has a strong track record against Keller.
In his career, the Rangers' second baseman is 3-for-9 with a triple and a home run, amounting to an .889 slugging rate, with Keller on the mound.
Given his strong current form -- he has a double in three of his last four games -- he is primed to improve upon this track record.
Thus, let's bet on Semien to record 2+ total bases. Two singles will suffice, as will a double, and so on.
Best Bet: Marcus Semien to record 2+ total bases at -115 with Bovada
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park in Atlanta
Who Starts for Cincinnati?
Hunter Greene starts for Cincinnati.
Greene's 5.63 ERA is no piece of luck.
His frequently poor location -- this is evident in his heat maps -- makes him vulnerable to opposing batters crushing his pitches.
While he throws hard, this makes it easier for opposing batters to hit his stuff harder when they do make contact.
Atlanta's Matt Olson
The Braves' batter likeliest to take advantage of Greene's vulnerability is Matt Olson.
Atlanta's first baseman is well-suited to hitting high-velocity, 97-100 mph fastballs, which is useful because those are primarily what Greene throws.
Specifically, since last year, Olson slugs .688 against the 97-100 mph fastball from righties.
Further evidence for the fact that Olson matches up well against Greene is in Olson's promising track record: with Greene on the mound, Olson is 2-for-3 with a home run.
Best Bet: Matt Olson to record 2+ total bases at -105 with Bovada
Bet Summary: Ryan Mountcastle to record 2+ total bases at -125;
Marcus Semien to record 2+ total bases at -115;
Matt Olson to record 2+ total bases at -105
Oakland Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 6:35 p.m. ET
Oakland's Struggling Starter
Ken Waldichuk starts for Oakland today.
Waldichuk is off to an amazingly awful start to his season.
After allowing six earned runs in his season opener against the Angels, he allowed eight earned runs in his last start against the Rays.
Perhaps most worrying about Waldichuk is sheer number of home runs that he's allowed -- he has allowed seven so far.
Looking For A Hitter
For our player props, we should look for an Oriole batter who is best suited to take advantage of Waldichuk's vulnerabilities -- because, clearly, Waldichuk is vulnerable to opposing hitters.
Waldichuk is a lefty, so we'll want our hitter to be good at hitting lefties.
Also, since Waldichuk is prone to surrendering home runs, we should choose a hitter with power.
Baltimore's Ryan Mountcastle
Orioles' first baseman Ryan Mountcastle meets all the desired criteria.
On the season, he is batting .289 while co-leading the MLB with five home runs and leading all with 18 RBIs.
His current hot streak helps explain his awesome regular season numbers -- he has hit three home runs in his past two games.
Most especially, Mountcastle dominates left-handed pitching -- he slugs an absurd 1.429 against southpaws.
You should therefore play the following prop bet: "Player to Record 2+ Total Bases."
Only hits count for this bet. So, we need our player to get at least two singles, or at least one double, and so on.
Let's make that player be Ryan Mountcastle.
Best Bet: Ryan Mountcastle to record 2+ total bases at -125 with Bovada
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 8:05 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas
Who Starts for Kansas City?
Brad Keller starts for the Royals today.
His 2.89 looks impressive, but it masks a 3.99 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding).
He has been fortunate to yield a low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) while doing an awful job of generating soft contact.
Opponents are making good contact against his pitches, so it is likely that he will give up hits at a higher rate than he's been doing.
Favorite Rangers' Batter
I want to invest in a Rangers' batter who appears most likely to take advantage of Keller's vulnerability to giving up hits via his inability to generate soft contact.
My choice is Marcus Semien most especially because he already has a strong track record against Keller.
In his career, the Rangers' second baseman is 3-for-9 with a triple and a home run, amounting to an .889 slugging rate, with Keller on the mound.
Given his strong current form -- he has a double in three of his last four games -- he is primed to improve upon this track record.
Thus, let's bet on Semien to record 2+ total bases. Two singles will suffice, as will a double, and so on.
Best Bet: Marcus Semien to record 2+ total bases at -115 with Bovada
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park in Atlanta
Who Starts for Cincinnati?
Hunter Greene starts for Cincinnati.
Greene's 5.63 ERA is no piece of luck.
His frequently poor location -- this is evident in his heat maps -- makes him vulnerable to opposing batters crushing his pitches.
While he throws hard, this makes it easier for opposing batters to hit his stuff harder when they do make contact.
Atlanta's Matt Olson
The Braves' batter likeliest to take advantage of Greene's vulnerability is Matt Olson.
Atlanta's first baseman is well-suited to hitting high-velocity, 97-100 mph fastballs, which is useful because those are primarily what Greene throws.
Specifically, since last year, Olson slugs .688 against the 97-100 mph fastball from righties.
Further evidence for the fact that Olson matches up well against Greene is in Olson's promising track record: with Greene on the mound, Olson is 2-for-3 with a home run.
Best Bet: Matt Olson to record 2+ total bases at -105 with Bovada
