3 Player Props August 23: It's Kevin Gausman's Time to Dominate
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Wednesday, August 23, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards in Baltimore
Who Starts for Toronto?
Kevin Gausman starts for the Blue Jays tonight.
Gausman's 3.24 ERA is great but does not do justice to his season.
He has been unfortunate to yield a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His 2.84 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects just how well he is performing.
Gausman's Spot
Gausman is typically reliable, but he is especially worth investing in today because he reliably bounces back after a weak performance, defined as a performance in which he yields an ERA of 6.00 or higher.
Before his last start, he has had five weak performances.
After each such start, he yielded an ERA of 1.50 or lower in his following start.
For example, he allowed six earned runs in 4.2 innings to Minnesota on June 11 before holding the mighty Rangers, in their own ballpark, to one earned run in six innings on June 16.
The fact that he's sustained this trend against the likes of Texas underscores its value: he has not simply gotten lucky by facing weak opponents after a weak performance.
Recent History
Skeptics may say: "well, he yielded a 6+ ERA in his last start against Baltimore. Doesn't this suggest that he's unreliable against Baltimore?"
A deeper dive into that start against Baltimore indicates that he actually performed well.
He did a tremendous job of limiting hard contact. Baltimore could hardly elevate his pitches.
However, he was unfortunate to yield a .571 BABIP.
His 1.88 FIP reflects how well he actually performed.
Therefore, he is actually reliable against the O's.
Best Bet: Kevin Gausman under 2.5 earned runs at -140 with Bovada
Washington Nationals vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, August 23, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Bronx, New York
Who Starts for the Yankees?
New York starts Luis Severino tonight.
Severino's current form establishes that the "over" on his earned runs allowed prop must be an automatic bet.
He enters tonight's game having allowed three or more earned runs in five straight starts and in seven of his last eight starts.
While the one exception -- when he allowed one earned run in six innings against the Angels on July 17 -- might offer hope, it shouldn't.
In that start, he actually performed quite poorly.
He did an awful job of limiting hard contact but was fortunate in yielding a low BABIP.
His 5.93 FIP reflects how poorly he actually performed.
Severino has now yielded an FIP of over 5.90 in eight straight starts.
This trend indicates the consistency of his poor performances.
Matchup Factor
Let's say that one might dig up a match-up-related argument in favor of Severino.
Such an argument could not be persuasive because Severino has continued to struggle even against weaker opponents.
For example, on July 23 he allowed three earned runs in 5.2 innings to the Royals.
More recently, he allowed four earned runs in two innings against the White Sox on August 9.
Severino's Problems
One reason for Severino's problems is that he is consistently doing a poor job of locating his pitches.
As heat maps show, he often leaves his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
Making critical mistakes in terms of location enables batters to hit home runs.
In each of his last eight games, he has surrendered at least one home run.
Best Bet: Luis Severino over 2.5 earned runs at +105 with Bovada
Who Starts for the Nationals?
MacKenzie Gore starts for Washington tonight.
In general, Gore is significantly worse on the road than at home.
Away from home, he yields more hard contact and surrenders more home runs.
Matchup Factor
The matchup is essential to consider when assessing the likelihood that Gore will struggle in a particular road start.
He reliably struggles against lefty-killing teams in road games.
Before tonight, he has faced six teams that rank top-ten in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Against four of them, he allowed five earned runs or more.
The two exceptions were San Diego and Houston.
While he succeeded against both teams back in June, they did not rank top-ten against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Houston was especially bad against his pitches from lefties at that point, and Gore was in a position to make adjustments against the Padres after struggling against them in an earlier start.
New York's Lineup
Hitting-wise, the Yankees are reliable tonight because they rank second with a .504 slugging rate against Gore's favorite pitches from lefties.
New York reliably victimizes lefties in general, such as Miami's Jesus Luzardo.
They even victimize very good ones, such as Tampa Bay's Shane McClanahan.
While one might say they lately haven't been hitting well, this is trivially true because they've only been facing right-handed starters.
Whereas they slug .388 against righties, they slug .449 against lefties.
While they failed to score three earned runs against the last lefty they faced, managing two earned runs against Max Fried, whose ERA is 1.55 better than Gore's, justifies optimism.
Best Bet: MacKenzie Gore over 2.5 earned runs at -150 with Bovada
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Wednesday, August 23, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards in Baltimore
Who Starts for Toronto?
Kevin Gausman starts for the Blue Jays tonight.
Gausman's 3.24 ERA is great but does not do justice to his season.
He has been unfortunate to yield a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His 2.84 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects just how well he is performing.
Gausman's Spot
Gausman is typically reliable, but he is especially worth investing in today because he reliably bounces back after a weak performance, defined as a performance in which he yields an ERA of 6.00 or higher.
Before his last start, he has had five weak performances.
After each such start, he yielded an ERA of 1.50 or lower in his following start.
For example, he allowed six earned runs in 4.2 innings to Minnesota on June 11 before holding the mighty Rangers, in their own ballpark, to one earned run in six innings on June 16.
The fact that he's sustained this trend against the likes of Texas underscores its value: he has not simply gotten lucky by facing weak opponents after a weak performance.
Recent History
Skeptics may say: "well, he yielded a 6+ ERA in his last start against Baltimore. Doesn't this suggest that he's unreliable against Baltimore?"
A deeper dive into that start against Baltimore indicates that he actually performed well.
He did a tremendous job of limiting hard contact. Baltimore could hardly elevate his pitches.
However, he was unfortunate to yield a .571 BABIP.
His 1.88 FIP reflects how well he actually performed.
Therefore, he is actually reliable against the O's.
Best Bet: Kevin Gausman under 2.5 earned runs at -140 with Bovada
Washington Nationals vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, August 23, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Bronx, New York
Who Starts for the Yankees?
New York starts Luis Severino tonight.
Severino's current form establishes that the "over" on his earned runs allowed prop must be an automatic bet.
He enters tonight's game having allowed three or more earned runs in five straight starts and in seven of his last eight starts.
While the one exception -- when he allowed one earned run in six innings against the Angels on July 17 -- might offer hope, it shouldn't.
In that start, he actually performed quite poorly.
He did an awful job of limiting hard contact but was fortunate in yielding a low BABIP.
His 5.93 FIP reflects how poorly he actually performed.
Severino has now yielded an FIP of over 5.90 in eight straight starts.
This trend indicates the consistency of his poor performances.
Matchup Factor
Let's say that one might dig up a match-up-related argument in favor of Severino.
Such an argument could not be persuasive because Severino has continued to struggle even against weaker opponents.
For example, on July 23 he allowed three earned runs in 5.2 innings to the Royals.
More recently, he allowed four earned runs in two innings against the White Sox on August 9.
Severino's Problems
One reason for Severino's problems is that he is consistently doing a poor job of locating his pitches.
As heat maps show, he often leaves his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
Making critical mistakes in terms of location enables batters to hit home runs.
In each of his last eight games, he has surrendered at least one home run.
Best Bet: Luis Severino over 2.5 earned runs at +105 with Bovada
Who Starts for the Nationals?
MacKenzie Gore starts for Washington tonight.
In general, Gore is significantly worse on the road than at home.
Away from home, he yields more hard contact and surrenders more home runs.
Matchup Factor
The matchup is essential to consider when assessing the likelihood that Gore will struggle in a particular road start.
He reliably struggles against lefty-killing teams in road games.
Before tonight, he has faced six teams that rank top-ten in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Against four of them, he allowed five earned runs or more.
The two exceptions were San Diego and Houston.
While he succeeded against both teams back in June, they did not rank top-ten against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Houston was especially bad against his pitches from lefties at that point, and Gore was in a position to make adjustments against the Padres after struggling against them in an earlier start.
New York's Lineup
Hitting-wise, the Yankees are reliable tonight because they rank second with a .504 slugging rate against Gore's favorite pitches from lefties.
New York reliably victimizes lefties in general, such as Miami's Jesus Luzardo.
They even victimize very good ones, such as Tampa Bay's Shane McClanahan.
While one might say they lately haven't been hitting well, this is trivially true because they've only been facing right-handed starters.
Whereas they slug .388 against righties, they slug .449 against lefties.
While they failed to score three earned runs against the last lefty they faced, managing two earned runs against Max Fried, whose ERA is 1.55 better than Gore's, justifies optimism.
Best Bet: MacKenzie Gore over 2.5 earned runs at -150 with Bovada
