3 Player Props August 16: Houston, We Have Lift Off
Houston Astros vs. Miami Marlins
Wednesday, August 16, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot park in Miami
Who Starts for Miami?
Jesus Luzardo starts for the Marlins tonight.
Luzardo enters today's game in terrible form.
He has yielded an ERA of 6.75 or higher in three straight starts.
While his last two opponents, the Yankees and Rangers, hit lefties tough, he has no excuse for his third-to-last start in which he allowed four earned runs in 4.2 innings at home to lowly Detroit.
This start against Detroit shows that his last two outings were not simply products of tough competition but rather extensions of his current tendency to pitch poorly.
Of course, this distinction is rather moot because his opponent tonight must be viewed as tough competition in view of how it matches up against his pitching arsenal.
Luzardo's Arsenal
A lefty, Luzardo primarily throws a fastball, slider, and changeup, in descending order of frequency.
These three pitches make up just over 95 percent of his arsenal.
His heat maps show a disturbing tendency, apparent especially in his two favorite pitches to throw, to leave his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do less damage.
While he does a better job of burying his slider, opponents are more productive against it, as they are apparently glad to deal with its lack of horizontal movement.
Likewise, he does an even better job of placing his changeup, yet it is the least effective of his three primary pitches.
Houston's Lineup
The Astros' outlook is solid tonight because they rank eighth in slugging .451 against Luzardo's pitches from lefties.
Among others, look out for lefty-killer Kyle Tucker.
Best Bet: Jesus Luzardo over 2.5 earned runs at +100 with Bovada
Oakland Athletics vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Wednesday, August 16, 2023 at 6:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Who Starts for Oakland?
Paul Blackburn starts for the A's today.
Blackburn's repertoire consists in six different pitches: sinker, cutter, slider, fastball, curveball, and changeup.
While this is a good number of pitches, quantity is a poor substitute for quality.
He has trouble finding pitches to rely on.
The two pitches that he throws most often, his sinker, and cutter, yield a .475 slugging rate and .491 slugging rate, respectively.
While his placement of these pitches isn't bad, it's clear that he needs to make such an effort to place pitches away from the middle of the strike zone because they lack quality.
His fastball, for example, places in the 13th percentile in velocity and in the 38th percentile in spin.
These numbers suggest that his fastball is rather easy for batters to hit.
Indeed, this pitch yields a .419 BA and .677 slugging rate.
St. Louis' Outlook
The Cardinals will hit Blackburn hard today because they match up well against him.
They rank seventh with a .442 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
For example, Lars Nootbaar and Nolan Arenado both slug well over .500 against his pitches from righties.
Deeper Look
Blackburn supporters may counter that matchup might not be so important, because he has done well against teams that hit his pitches from righties well.
However, Blackburn's worst starts of the season came against a Boston lineup that matches up well against him.
Plus, unlike the tough matchups that Blackburn succeeded against, the Cardinals are hitting consistently well right now.
They've scored five runs or more in six straight games.
Best Bet: Paul Blackburn over 2.5 earned runs at -155 with Bovada
Boston Red Sox vs. Washington Nationals
Wednesday, August 16, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Who Starts for the Nationals?
Washington starts MacKenzie Gore tonight.
Gore is coming off a terrible start, defined as one in which he allowed at least five earned runs, and this is a good thing for him,
He reliably bounces back after terrible starts.
For example, in the middle of June, after allowing five earned runs to Atlanta, he threw 5.2 shutout innings in Houston.
Before his most recent start, he has allowed five earned runs or more on four separate occasions.
In the four respective outings that directly followed such a start, he allowed one run once and zero runs three times.
This bounce-back tendency is particularly impressive because he's sustained it against tough opponents.
This fact means that he is not simply benefiting from good luck, in terms of which opponent he's facing. Instead, this bounce-back trend is authentic.
What About Boston?
Gore skeptics may say that Boston's current trend of hitting success nullifies the value of Gore's bounce-back trend.
While the Red Sox have thrived in their last two games -- hardly a large data sample -- they are unimpressive.
They got to face their former teammate before encountering Josiah Gray, who has been pitching terribly since the start of August.
Gore's Arsenal
There is anyhow a lot to like about Gore's arsenal.
He relies primarily on his fastball but also frequently throws a curveball and slider.
His reliance on his fastball is smart because it's a good pitch: it has a lot of velocity and spin.
It plays well off his curveball and slider.
Best Bet: MacKenzie Gore under 2.5 earned runs at -110 with Bovada
Houston Astros vs. Miami Marlins
Wednesday, August 16, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot park in Miami
- Jesus Luzardo shows poor form
- Luzardo is struggling even against weaker competition
- Houston hits Luzardo's pitches from lefties very well
Who Starts for Miami?
Jesus Luzardo starts for the Marlins tonight.
Luzardo enters today's game in terrible form.
He has yielded an ERA of 6.75 or higher in three straight starts.
While his last two opponents, the Yankees and Rangers, hit lefties tough, he has no excuse for his third-to-last start in which he allowed four earned runs in 4.2 innings at home to lowly Detroit.
This start against Detroit shows that his last two outings were not simply products of tough competition but rather extensions of his current tendency to pitch poorly.
Of course, this distinction is rather moot because his opponent tonight must be viewed as tough competition in view of how it matches up against his pitching arsenal.
Luzardo's Arsenal
A lefty, Luzardo primarily throws a fastball, slider, and changeup, in descending order of frequency.
These three pitches make up just over 95 percent of his arsenal.
His heat maps show a disturbing tendency, apparent especially in his two favorite pitches to throw, to leave his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do less damage.
While he does a better job of burying his slider, opponents are more productive against it, as they are apparently glad to deal with its lack of horizontal movement.
Likewise, he does an even better job of placing his changeup, yet it is the least effective of his three primary pitches.
Houston's Lineup
The Astros' outlook is solid tonight because they rank eighth in slugging .451 against Luzardo's pitches from lefties.
Among others, look out for lefty-killer Kyle Tucker.
Best Bet: Jesus Luzardo over 2.5 earned runs at +100 with Bovada
Oakland Athletics vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Wednesday, August 16, 2023 at 6:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
- Paul Blackburn's arsenal contains quantity but not a lot of quality
- The Cardinals match up well against Blackburn
- St. Louis is hitting consistently well
Who Starts for Oakland?
Paul Blackburn starts for the A's today.
Blackburn's repertoire consists in six different pitches: sinker, cutter, slider, fastball, curveball, and changeup.
While this is a good number of pitches, quantity is a poor substitute for quality.
He has trouble finding pitches to rely on.
The two pitches that he throws most often, his sinker, and cutter, yield a .475 slugging rate and .491 slugging rate, respectively.
While his placement of these pitches isn't bad, it's clear that he needs to make such an effort to place pitches away from the middle of the strike zone because they lack quality.
His fastball, for example, places in the 13th percentile in velocity and in the 38th percentile in spin.
These numbers suggest that his fastball is rather easy for batters to hit.
Indeed, this pitch yields a .419 BA and .677 slugging rate.
St. Louis' Outlook
The Cardinals will hit Blackburn hard today because they match up well against him.
They rank seventh with a .442 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
For example, Lars Nootbaar and Nolan Arenado both slug well over .500 against his pitches from righties.
Deeper Look
Blackburn supporters may counter that matchup might not be so important, because he has done well against teams that hit his pitches from righties well.
However, Blackburn's worst starts of the season came against a Boston lineup that matches up well against him.
Plus, unlike the tough matchups that Blackburn succeeded against, the Cardinals are hitting consistently well right now.
They've scored five runs or more in six straight games.
Best Bet: Paul Blackburn over 2.5 earned runs at -155 with Bovada
Boston Red Sox vs. Washington Nationals
Wednesday, August 16, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
- MacKenzie Gore is in a bounce-back spot
- Gore even bounces back against tough competition
- Boston's recent hitting outputs are unimpressive
Who Starts for the Nationals?
Washington starts MacKenzie Gore tonight.
Gore is coming off a terrible start, defined as one in which he allowed at least five earned runs, and this is a good thing for him,
He reliably bounces back after terrible starts.
For example, in the middle of June, after allowing five earned runs to Atlanta, he threw 5.2 shutout innings in Houston.
Before his most recent start, he has allowed five earned runs or more on four separate occasions.
In the four respective outings that directly followed such a start, he allowed one run once and zero runs three times.
This bounce-back tendency is particularly impressive because he's sustained it against tough opponents.
This fact means that he is not simply benefiting from good luck, in terms of which opponent he's facing. Instead, this bounce-back trend is authentic.
What About Boston?
Gore skeptics may say that Boston's current trend of hitting success nullifies the value of Gore's bounce-back trend.
While the Red Sox have thrived in their last two games -- hardly a large data sample -- they are unimpressive.
They got to face their former teammate before encountering Josiah Gray, who has been pitching terribly since the start of August.
Gore's Arsenal
There is anyhow a lot to like about Gore's arsenal.
He relies primarily on his fastball but also frequently throws a curveball and slider.
His reliance on his fastball is smart because it's a good pitch: it has a lot of velocity and spin.
It plays well off his curveball and slider.
Best Bet: MacKenzie Gore under 2.5 earned runs at -110 with Bovada
